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The Great Mass Debater

The relegation zone in perspective

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If we had 2 points more, and sat in 12th place, or 3 points more, and sat in 9th, do people think the Hughton debate would still be happening. Iv heard people talk about getting ''cut off'' at the bottom, yet we''re 3 points off 9th? Is there not somewhat of an argument that people are getting a bit carried away with relegation talk? People seem happy to admit we''ve run short of a bit of luck in a few games. If we''d had just a slight change in fortune in just one of these games, and now sat 12th instead, would all the panic still be happening? The league is very tight, are people just getting carried away because we currently occupy 18th? We''re hardly cut off

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I think it''s more of a case of people are a bit concerned that we still can''t find the net consistently, and we''ve failed to score altogether against 3 of our relegation rivals and taken just 1 point in the process.

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just thinking the same GMD, City played well yesterday . dont panic just yet everyone, the rlegation zone stretches up to swansea....they are 3 pts above us.

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[quote user="Mr Brownstone"]I think it''s more of a case of people are a bit concerned that we still can''t find the net consistently, and we''ve failed to score altogether against 3 of our relegation rivals and taken just 1 point in the process.[/quote]Exactly this. Its not the points we have, its the points we should have had!!

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[quote user="Mr Brownstone"]I think it''s more of a case of people are a bit concerned that we still can''t find the net consistently, and we''ve failed to score altogether against 3 of our relegation rivals and taken just 1 point in the process.[/quote]

 

I can''t disagree with any of that.

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"If".

If we''d won every game 10-0 we''d be top. What of it?

We are where we are and we have a right to criticise and be concerned at what we''ve seen so far. The perspective is we''ve taken 27 points from our last 30 games and scored 28 goals. That''s a good sample size and that''s relegation.

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The silver lining is that I think there are enough poor sides about in this league for us to be ok. We are better than Hull, Cardiff and Palace for a start and over the course of the season one would hope the points tally will reflect that.

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A decent thread this. I''ve been saying the same thing myself - the fact that we are nominally 18th in the table but within a single win of the top half is being latched upon by the out brigade.

Further, I see a stat about Hughton''s record in the last 30 games. Of course, we can choose whatever period we like to make the statistics skew in the most negative manner. I would argue that the most objective way to judge Hughton is to judge him over all of the games he has been manager. That shows a return of 52 points from 47 games. Not pulling up trees but a reasonable return at this level, and certainly not, in my view, a sackable record.

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[quote user="The Great Mass Debater"]If we had 2 points more, and sat in 12th place, or 3 points more, and sat in 9th, do people think the Hughton debate would still be happening. [/quote]But we don''t have 2 or 3 points more & were not in 12th or 9th place. That is the reality. .

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That is the reality. But understanding that we are not adrift, and not far behind a number of other clubs, is important in assessing whether the management team is really failing. One win puts us in a decent position, so should the manager be sacked?

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Talking about the relegation zone in October (unless you have only 1 or 2 points) is pretty much irrelevant.    People who want Hughton sacked will use it as a reason, but to most of us, its far too early in the season to think of it as being at all meaningful. 

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A decent thread this. I''ve been saying the same thing myself - the fact that we are nominally 18th in the table but within a single win of the top half is being latched upon by the out brigade.

Further, I see a stat about Hughton''s record in the last 30 games. Of course, we can choose whatever period we like to make the statistics skew in the most negative manner. I would argue that the most objective way to judge Hughton is to judge him over all of the games he has been manager. That shows a return of 52 points from 47 games. Not pulling up trees but a reasonable return at this level, and certainly not, in my view, a sackable record.

--------------------------------

fantastic post IMO. I''m just sick and tired of people picking and choosing the stats they want to support the debate. if you''re going to go past this seasons results, then you go all the way back, not just after our good form ended. Can''t understand how people can say the 10 unbeaten "doesn''t count." - unless I''m wrong, last seasons table certainly disagrees.

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I think it is meaningful at this stage. We have a horrendous run in and it was many fans view that we needed to get early points.

If we are in the position we were last season, not being safe with three or four games to go we will find it very difficult.

I see no sign yet of a ten game unbeaten run although you never know.

I am not a Hughton in or out person, I just hope we can start to put points on the board more consistently.

My perspective of the relegation zone is that we need points sooner because we may not get them later.

So yes I am a bit worried.

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Occupying a relegation slot is not meaningful?

LOL

These happy clappers analyse NCFC''s performances like little old ladies reading tea leaves. Wishful and fanciful thinking is all it is.

You can clap all you want about what might happen in the future. Meanwhile, the rest of us will look at the points we have in the bank and make our judgments based on hard facts, NOT speculation.

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No, it is not.

Frankly, if we were still a couple of points below 12th in, say, March, then I still wouldn''t be concerned - so long as we''re playing as well as we have recently.

Goals will come. It takes a while for players ( & managers) to get a team to function properly; if you can''t see that the way the team is playing now is vastly better than at the start of the season, then, well ....

Swansea went 4 games without scoring when they got promoted.

A little patience is required. But I think that''s asking a bit too much for some.

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[quote user="The Great Mass Debater"]If we had 2 points more, and sat in 12th place, or 3 points more, and sat in 9th, do people think the Hughton debate would still be happening. Iv heard people talk about getting ''cut off'' at the bottom, yet we''re 3 points off 9th? Is there not somewhat of an argument that people are getting a bit carried away with relegation talk? People seem happy to admit we''ve run short of a bit of luck in a few games. If we''d had just a slight change in fortune in just one of these games, and now sat 12th instead, would all the panic still be happening? The league is very tight, are people just getting carried away because we currently occupy 18th? We''re hardly cut off[/quote]

 

Ah, IF IF and IF.

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[quote user="Javiers Deaf Translator"]A decent thread this. I''ve been saying the same thing myself - the fact that we are nominally 18th in the table but within a single win of the top half is being latched upon by the out brigade. Further, I see a stat about Hughton''s record in the last 30 games. Of course, we can choose whatever period we like to make the statistics skew in the most negative manner. I would argue that the most objective way to judge Hughton is to judge him over all of the games he has been manager. That shows a return of 52 points from 47 games. Not pulling up trees but a reasonable return at this level, and certainly not, in my view, a sackable record. -------------------------------- fantastic post IMO. I''m just sick and tired of people picking and choosing the stats they want to support the debate. if you''re going to go past this seasons results, then you go all the way back, not just after our good form ended. Can''t understand how people can say the 10 unbeaten "doesn''t count." - unless I''m wrong, last seasons table certainly disagrees.[/quote]

 

People refer to the 30 game period because that is the start of when our form and results disappeared. In the 2nd half of last season the management team didn''t seem to have any idea how to get us out of that rut, and whilst our form has undoubtedly improved this season results have not followed, yet, that is why many people have concerns. 

It''s understandable that whilst some of us are holding our nerve, some have run out of pateince. Personally, if we fail to beat West Ham and Palace then I''ll agree that it''s probably time to say goodbye. I''m still hoping that Hughton can do it though, and despite my reservations about his ability to change a game where necessary, I feel like where on the verge of clicking.

 

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[quote user="Beefy is a legend"]

A decent thread this. I''ve been saying the same thing myself - the fact that we are nominally 18th in the table but within a single win of the top half is being latched upon by the out brigade.

Further, I see a stat about Hughton''s record in the last 30 games. Of course, we can choose whatever period we like to make the statistics skew in the most negative manner. I would argue that the most objective way to judge Hughton is to judge him over all of the games he has been manager. That shows a return of 52 points from 47 games. Not pulling up trees but a reasonable return at this level, and certainly not, in my view, a sackable record.

[/quote]

That points per game ratio would give us 42 point this season if it continued over the course of this season Would that be acceptable?

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[quote user="RvWs 4 year contract"]Our form under Hughton (not including the 10 game run which was very pleasing obviously) has been shocking.

We''ve won 6 games in the league since christmas. [/quote]But we''ve won 4 of our last 11! That''s a win percentage of 36%, better than Lambert ever achieved here!![;)]

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The situation hasn''t been helped by McNallys statement on our current position.Why did he say it, he''s been in football long enough and seen our performances to date. In some ways i think it has led to a media witch-hunt which in the present climate is unhelpful.

H

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Some posters on here made their minds up they wanted Hughton gone last season, and they will look at the negatives whatever they are.

 

If we keep performing as we have been doing, the results will come, and those posters will go quiet.

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If we must compare past results and league positions, etc, then let''s at least look at a rolling season, so it includes 38 games.

 

By my calculation that would give us 45 points, one more than last season, although in last year''s final league table that would still leave us in 11th position, even if it was WHU we took the point off.

 

Even if we had dropped another 9 points last year we would probably still have stayed in the Prem (on goal difference).

 

If we compare last year with this, then we could have lost the games we drew against Villa, Reading & Everton, and drawn the games we won against, Arsenal, Stoke & Man Utd and we would still have been safe (all these games were in our unbeaten run).  This would have reduced the unbeaten run to 4, so perhaps it was not so important, or did not play such a massive part in our survival as many think.

 

Plus IMO we are playing some of the best football I''ve seen for a while with two strikers who are only 9 games into their Premier League careers having each suffered early season injuries.

 

Does any of this guarantee anything, no, but neither does all the other talk on here about form and past results.

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[quote user="Herman "]But last season''s games do not count on this season''s table.[/quote]

nail hit on the head!

the problem with the English football fan is always "last season"... not quite related to this thread but "1966..." gets harped on about at every England game by the media.. it''s time to let it go and look at whats happening this season...

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I don''t think its so much the fact we are currently in the bottom 3 that is causing the concern its more that we are in the bottom 3 having played pretty well for the last few games and yet we are still struggling to pick up wins. With the finish we have this season it is imperative we have a great first half of the sean as we don''t want to go into the last 4 games next season needing points

I personally am not overly panicking yet as im sure we are better then palace and Cardiff and will finish above them in a 38 game season and im pretty confident we will finish above sunderland and hull but we do need to start getting wins and soon. I tend to look at the seasons as needing 10 wins 10 draws which allows us to lose 18 games so we need 8 wins and 8 draws in 30 games (or equivalent) and I am pretty confident we will do this

Anything away to city is a bonus but I think we can get something there. Ok last season we beat them when they were''on the beach'' but people seem to forget that so were we

If we are in the bottom 3 and more than 2 pts adrift, then I will begin to panic but until then lets not over react, Last season we had a similar start, failed to win 2 similalrly ''easy'' home games in a row, one against west ham with Harry kanes backpass shot, so lets not get too worried yet

 

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