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lake district canary

Four wins, five losses, one draw.

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Story of the season so far in competitive matches.   Goals scored  for - 14Goals against  - 18Still in the cup.Still one win from mid-table.Win ratio 40%Now you may not like to count cup matches,  as the league is so important,  but should we win tonight and draw on Saturday,  the season is going to start to look pretty good overall, especially as we will have played all the strongest sides in the division except Liverpool in our first few league matches.  Even if we lose both these next matches, the position won''t have changed that much, as the meat of the season  contains so many matches against supposedly non top six sides.   I''m not a stats man and will always see a positive view - and performances are improving - so imo we are shaping up to the challenge pretty well.   As always the next match is the most important thing to focus on.   After all, every match is winnable to us. Including tonight.

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While I agree with your point, I''m sick and tired of all these ''won x games in y'' stats. I realise I''m not helping, as (in order to try and make my point) every time I see a negative ''won x games in y'' stat (i.e. 6 games in last 30), I combat it by selecting a more favorable ''won x games in y'' stat to make the opposite point (i.e. won 4 games in last 11).At the end of the day, these stats never tell the whole story in isolation.The more important stat is the one we don''t yet know, which is, how many of the next x games are we going to win. Of course no one can know the answer. However at the moment, I''d argue we''re playing pretty well, and hopefully the results in the league will catch-up soon.

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An interesting take on the stats debate. Agreed in that I think stats are being used to sell certain agendas, but then again when arent they? Lie, damn lies and statistics...

 

Personally, I think our record should reflect a mid-table aim, therefore we should be looking to win a third, draw a third and lose a third in terms of where the bar is set. But I would also accept our win column equalling our losses column. Though I definitely feel we have to be wary of drawing too many games in the 3 points for a win system

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I get what you''re trying to point out, so the thing is, would you rather have been dumped out versus Watford but be a point and 2 goals better off in the league? (We''d be up in like 15th/16th)

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[quote user="Jimmy Smith"]I get what you''re trying to point out, so the thing is, would you rather have been dumped out versus Watford but be a point and 2 goals better off in the league? (We''d be up in like 15th/16th)[/quote]

No.  A win is a win and is good for the club.  As long as we carry on developing and improving, which is surely the aim, we will be alright in the league and the cup.  If we lost in the cup, it makes little odds to the league position - and at this stage a point or two here and there in the league shouldn''t make that much difference - as long as we continue improving.   If we don''t continue improving, then we will struggle whatever competition we are in.  

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[quote user="The Great Mass Debater"]

An interesting take on the stats debate. Agreed in that I think stats are being used to sell certain agendas, but then again when arent they? Lie, damn lies and statistics...

 

Personally, I think our record should reflect a mid-table aim, therefore we should be looking to win a third, draw a third and lose a third in terms of where the bar is set. But I would also accept our win column equalling our losses column. Though I definitely feel we have to be wary of drawing too many games in the 3 points for a win system

[/quote]

I think that aim is a little better than mid table. 51 or 52 points would have been good enough for 8th in 4 of the last 5 seasons. Arguably that is midtable I suppose but is seen as a sort of ceiling for achievement as if you finish above that you have to displace one of the big London 3, Manchester or Liverpool clubs.

 

West Brom lost 17 times last season and finished 8th. But I do see that as a target something like 12/13/13 or even 12/10/16 would be a record that comfortably stayed up.

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lake district canary wrote the following post at 2013-10-29 12:41 PM:

but should we win tonight and draw on Saturday, the season is going to start to look pretty good overall, especially as we will have played all the strongest sides in the division except Liverpool in our first few league matches. Even if we lose both these next matches, the position won''t have changed that much, as the meat of the season contains so many matches against supposedly non top six sides.

Errr, Villa, Hull, Cardiff - non top six sides! NIL points! And how do you see lose the next two and the position won''t have changed much? Give your crystal ball a wipe.

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it sure felt like it.

keep taking the happy pills.

Seen some contrived stats in my time but Including the wins against the Mighty Bury and scraping past Watford, I think that takes the biscuit.

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[quote user="KeelansGlove"]it sure felt like it.

keep taking the happy pills.

Seen some contrived stats in my time but Including the wins against the Mighty Bury and scraping past Watford, I think that takes the biscuit.[/quote]

Results against Bury/Watford gave new players and squad players a chance to progress and leads on to a great fixture like tonight.   The more we are successful at any level, the better it is for our club.   Murphy gets the chance to feature in the first team against Man Utd.   This is all good.   Success breeds success and we need success at every level of the club -  from the youth team upwards.  

Our great period in the late eighties early nineties was down to this kind of progression and continuity.   Imo Hughton will be given three years from when he arrived to prove his worth.   After that, if successful he can stay, or if there is a change, then Neil Adams could have progressed by then to be in with a shout, alongside some of the youth team as they progress through to the first team.

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Last season I was well on board with the work in progress tag and CH did get us a premier league defence (although Turner sometimes makes me wonder)

Again this summer he has signed great players , not one signing would I question although much like last year we began the season with one player missing (that illusive number 10)

Our Midfield has been shaped into a great unit where we can actively compete in this area with the likes of Chelsea and Arsenal (who would have thought it!)

We have signed 2 quality strikers with proven records.

BUT

We have a manger who has not managed to coach a cohesive plan to involve our lone striker since arrival regardless of who it may be still leaving us relying on pot shots from midfield to hopefully win games.

A Manager either so clueless or stubborn that he cannot envisage any alternative gameplan could ever be viable whoever the opposition, other than like for like changes and sling an extra striker on for the last 5 minutes.

His tactics (or lack of them) make me absolutely furious

for that reason I cannot imagine him being at Norwich for 3 years, unless he wakes up and gets a clue

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[quote user="lake district canary"][quote user="Jimmy Smith"]I get what you''re trying to point out, so the thing is, would you rather have been dumped out versus Watford but be a point and 2 goals better off in the league? (We''d be up in like 15th/16th)[/quote]

No.  A win is a win and is good for the club.  As long as we carry on developing and improving, which is surely the aim, we will be alright in the league and the cup.  If we lost in the cup, it makes little odds to the league position - and at this stage a point or two here and there in the league shouldn''t make that much difference - as long as we continue improving.   If we don''t continue improving, then we will struggle whatever competition we are in.  

[/quote]

What a ridiculous post/argument. Verging on trolling. if we continue to get no points in most of our league matches then we clearly will not be ok regardless of performances. a point here and there could be crucial at the end of the season whether picked up now or later on. Points don;t count for double if you pick them up later in the season. The first quarter of the season counts for just as much as the last quarter.

Cup wins are largely irrelevant unless we get close to winning one. The record Hughton must be judged on is the league and at present that record is not as good as it should be.

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[quote user="Jim Smith"][quote user="lake district canary"][quote user="Jimmy Smith"]I get what you''re trying to point out, so the thing is, would you rather have been dumped out versus Watford but be a point and 2 goals better off in the league? (We''d be up in like 15th/16th)[/quote]

No.  A win is a win and is good for the club.  As long as we carry on developing and improving, which is surely the aim, we will be alright in the league and the cup.  If we lost in the cup, it makes little odds to the league position - and at this stage a point or two here and there in the league shouldn''t make that much difference - as long as we continue improving.   If we don''t continue improving, then we will struggle whatever competition we are in.  

[/quote]

What a ridiculous post/argument. Verging on trolling. if we continue to get no points in most of our league matches then we clearly will not be ok regardless of performances. a point here and there could be crucial at the end of the season whether picked up now or later on. Points don;t count for double if you pick them up later in the season. The first quarter of the season counts for just as much as the last quarter.

Cup wins are largely irrelevant unless we get close to winning one. The record Hughton must be judged on is the league and at present that record is not as good as it should be.[/quote]

Thank you for your ridiculous over-reaction to my "verging on trolling" post.   You look at what I say but fail to pick up on the "improving" point. If we carry on improving, we will pick up points sufficient to keep us up - and have a decent cup run too.  If you really want to look on the black side of what people write, then at least try and take in everything that is being said on not just pick on one thing out of context.  

I''ll say it again for you. If we carry on improving (and we have to carry on improving) we will pick up enough points/wins.   The cup run is a bonus, but a very useful bonus for all sorts of reasons.   If you are obsessed with the team failing, that is your problem.  I am obsessed with seeing the team develop and improve - as it will.   In our situation with so many new players - the cup run will help.

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[quote user="lake district canary"][quote user="Jim Smith"][quote user="lake district canary"][quote user="Jimmy Smith"]I get what you''re trying to point out, so the thing is, would you rather have been dumped out versus Watford but be a point and 2 goals better off in the league? (We''d be up in like 15th/16th)[/quote]

No.  A win is a win and is good for the club.  As long as we carry on developing and improving, which is surely the aim, we will be alright in the league and the cup.  If we lost in the cup, it makes little odds to the league position - and at this stage a point or two here and there in the league shouldn''t make that much difference - as long as we continue improving.   If we don''t continue improving, then we will struggle whatever competition we are in.  

[/quote]

What a ridiculous post/argument. Verging on trolling. if we continue to get no points in most of our league matches then we clearly will not be ok regardless of performances. a point here and there could be crucial at the end of the season whether picked up now or later on. Points don;t count for double if you pick them up later in the season. The first quarter of the season counts for just as much as the last quarter.

Cup wins are largely irrelevant unless we get close to winning one. The record Hughton must be judged on is the league and at present that record is not as good as it should be.[/quote]

Thank you for your ridiculous over-reaction to my "verging on trolling" post.   You look at what I say but fail to pick up on the "improving" point. If we carry on improving, we will pick up points sufficient to keep us up - and have a decent cup run too.  If you really want to look on the black side of what people write, then at least try and take in everything that is being said on not just pick on one thing out of context.  

I''ll say it again for you. If we carry on improving (and we have to carry on improving) we will pick up enough points/wins.   The cup run is a bonus, but a very useful bonus for all sorts of reasons.   If you are obsessed with the team failing, that is your problem.  I am obsessed with seeing the team develop and improve - as it will.   In our situation with so many new players - the cup run will help.

[/quote]

I want to see the team develop and improve but long term we will only do this if we stay in the premier league and to do that we need to win games.

Your post is "verging on trolling" because (in line with the general theme of "real fans look on the brightside and blindly support their team" at all times) you have deliberately gone out to try and put the most positive spin possible on results thus far knowing full well the reaction this post will get - which is that most people will point out that counting wins against Bury and Watford to somehow try and skew the states and try and argue that despite being in the relegation zone after a quarter of the season our season has been successful so far and "we are shaping up to the challenge pretty well" is a nonsense. Our season may or may not turn round but so far it has been pretty poor and we have missed an opportunity to get points in the bag which may well come back to haunt us.

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[quote user="KeelansGlove"]it sure felt like it.

keep taking the happy pills.

Seen some contrived stats in my time but Including the wins against the Mighty Bury and scraping past Watford, I think that takes the biscuit.[/quote]

 

Sorry but if a draw against Cardiff with a clean sheet and all the playing positives felt like a defeat then you are the one who would benefit from the happy pills.  And some perspective pills too.

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[quote user="Jim Smith"]

I want to see the team develop and improve but long term we will only do this if we stay in the premier league and to do that we need to win games.

Your post is "verging on trolling" because (in line with the general theme of "real fans look on the brightside and blindly support their team" at all times) you have deliberately gone out to try and put the most positive spin possible on results thus far knowing full well the reaction this post will get - which is that most people will point out that counting wins against Bury and Watford to somehow try and skew the states and try and argue that despite being in the relegation zone after a quarter of the season our season has been successful so far and "we are shaping up to the challenge pretty well" is a nonsense. Our season may or may not turn round but so far it has been pretty poor and we have missed an opportunity to get points in the bag which may well come back to haunt us.[/quote]

We have a different stand point, but I fail to see how mine is any less relevant than yours.   I see improvements, a cup run that has positive benefits - you see my viewpoint as being as "blind support" which is actually far from the truth.    I see what I see.   You cannot argue that we have not seen better performances recently - or can you?   You cannot argue that the cup run, as long as it lasts is giving the squad and youngsters valuable match practice - or can you?  

Also, I find the "blindly supporting" accusation wide of the mark too.  We all want to see improvements.  Its just that some see development as ongoing and that goals/wins will happen with that - others don''t believe it will happen.

We shall see.

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You cannot possibly be serious, LDC. The PL and CC1 cup are two completely different competitions, with (up till 7.45 tonight !) a totally different class of opposition. You might as well lob the pre season friendlies into the mix as well.......

Clearly I''d like us to beat MoanUre tonight, but frankly if I were offered getting thrashed at OT, then getting a point at the Etihad on Sat, I''d snatch your hand off. I suppose what I''m saying is all I''m really interested in right now is PL points (or WINS to be more accurate)

I don''t think that anyone sane would not accept that performances have been better, but the fact is that for long periods we looked pretty toothless v Cardiff, despite all the positives. I''d agree with you that any NCFC win is to be welcomed, but to equate a win in the CC1 cup with a PL one is, frankly, barmy.

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[quote user="lake district canary"][quote user="Jim Smith"]

I want to see the team develop and improve but long term we will only do this if we stay in the premier league and to do that we need to win games.

Your post is "verging on trolling" because (in line with the general theme of "real fans look on the brightside and blindly support their team" at all times) you have deliberately gone out to try and put the most positive spin possible on results thus far knowing full well the reaction this post will get - which is that most people will point out that counting wins against Bury and Watford to somehow try and skew the states and try and argue that despite being in the relegation zone after a quarter of the season our season has been successful so far and "we are shaping up to the challenge pretty well" is a nonsense. Our season may or may not turn round but so far it has been pretty poor and we have missed an opportunity to get points in the bag which may well come back to haunt us.[/quote]

We have a different stand point, but I fail to see how mine is any less relevant than yours.   I see improvements, a cup run that has positive benefits - you see my viewpoint as being as "blind support" which is actually far from the truth.    I see what I see.   You cannot argue that we have not seen better performances recently - or can you?   You cannot argue that the cup run, as long as it lasts is giving the squad and youngsters valuable match practice - or can you?  

Also, I find the "blindly supporting" accusation wide of the mark too.  We all want to see improvements.  Its just that some see development as ongoing and that goals/wins will happen with that - others don''t believe it will happen.

We shall see.

[/quote]

Your stand point is not less relevant than mine and I agree we have improved in the last 4 games.

Where we disagree is that it has not been a bad start to the season and that twisting the stats by including the cup wins proves that we are in fact doing ok as your post suggests.

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[quote user="Jim Smith"][quote user="lake district canary"][quote user="Jim Smith"]

I want to see the team develop and improve but long term we will only do this if we stay in the premier league and to do that we need to win games.

Your post is "verging on trolling" because (in line with the general theme of "real fans look on the brightside and blindly support their team" at all times) you have deliberately gone out to try and put the most positive spin possible on results thus far knowing full well the reaction this post will get - which is that most people will point out that counting wins against Bury and Watford to somehow try and skew the states and try and argue that despite being in the relegation zone after a quarter of the season our season has been successful so far and "we are shaping up to the challenge pretty well" is a nonsense. Our season may or may not turn round but so far it has been pretty poor and we have missed an opportunity to get points in the bag which may well come back to haunt us.[/quote]

We have a different stand point, but I fail to see how mine is any less relevant than yours.   I see improvements, a cup run that has positive benefits - you see my viewpoint as being as "blind support" which is actually far from the truth.    I see what I see.   You cannot argue that we have not seen better performances recently - or can you?   You cannot argue that the cup run, as long as it lasts is giving the squad and youngsters valuable match practice - or can you?  

Also, I find the "blindly supporting" accusation wide of the mark too.  We all want to see improvements.  Its just that some see development as ongoing and that goals/wins will happen with that - others don''t believe it will happen.

We shall see.

[/quote]

Your stand point is not less relevant than mine and I agree we have improved in the last 4 games.

Where we disagree is that it has not been a bad start to the season and that twisting the stats by including the cup wins proves that we are in fact doing ok as your post suggests.[/quote]

Sorry where we disagree is over your claim that it has not been a bad start to the season!

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LDC...you are occasionally a very good counterpoint to the harder negative stuff on here but I believe you are wrong to suggest CH will have 3 years. I can guarantee that the Board will not accept much more of the same (league position) and throw away 25m of investment not coming to fruition. I can honestly see only 3 more games maximum. I am quite convinced of this. Unless there is at least one win in the next 3 league games whether we show improvement or not

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[quote user="sonyc"]LDC...you are occasionally a very good counterpoint to the harder negative stuff on here but I believe you are wrong to suggest CH will have 3 years. I can guarantee that the Board will not accept much more of the same (league position) and throw away 25m of investment not coming to fruition. I can honestly see only 3 more games maximum. I am quite convinced of this. Unless there is at least one win in the next 3 league games whether we show improvement or not[/quote]

The board would be throwing away a lot of investment by changing the manager.   A new manager would want his own players in, meaning more money spent in January than we would have otherwise.  Sometimes in management you have to hold your nerve, stick with what you have and work through any problems that arise.   Its only an opinion, but I think that managers can improve as they learn

more.  They learn about the players, they can learn from their mistakes

and I think Hughton is the kind of man that is as honest with himself

as he is with others - he will want to improve his performance as much

as he wants to improve the players performance.  

You may only want to give him three games, but if performances continue to improve  I am equally convinced that Hughton is here for the long term.  We are not cut off at the bottom of the table, there is a long way to go and if Hughton can get the goals flowing as he has at his previous clubs, we will ultimately do well with him in charge. 

Its a learning process for all of us.  Yes, its a results driven business, but in terms of where we are, it is still early days this season.  And we are not in a down and out situation.   A couple of decent results from the top ten.    Too early in the season to throw out the baby with the bathwater.

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