11th Position Myth

[Matt Juler 148]

[quote user="Jim Smith"]Myth is clearly the wrong phrase but I agree with the basic point that the 11th place finish gives a misleading impression of our season.

I also agree that in particular the Man City result was mainly down to them not giving a toss. the same can be said to a a degree about west brom but then they were pretty poor for most of the second half of last season and i''d fancy us to beat them at home again this season. Same was not true of Man City and so it transpired.

The fact is those 6 points at the death, coupled with a massively tight league led to us shooting up about 5 or 6 places and put a flattering gloss on our season. In our first season in the premier league were we the 12th best team. I would say yes we were and our finishing position reflected the season we had. Last season were we honestly the 11th best team in that league - I struggle with that concept to be honest. For most of the season we stunk the place out and I suspect fans of quite a lot of teams would say we were the worst side to visit their ground.[/quote]But Jim, the league doesn''t lie.  Intelligent people like you and I can''t possible suggest that we were anything other than the 11th best team in the league.... yawn!

[crabbycanary 2]

2012/13 Premier League - Norwich City, the luckiest team in history

[Jim Smith 2,317]

[quote user="crabbycanary"]2012/13 Premier League - Norwich City, the luckiest team in history[/quote]

Not about luck really. Its just that the ultimate league position flattered us. the difference between 11th and 16th was only 3 points (the three points we got at Man City that i would suggest we would not have got in normal circumstances) yet quoting an "11th place finish" in support of Hughton''s record sounds so much more impressive than a "16th place finish" whereas the truth is that it wasn''t really that much more impressive.

[TCCANARY 263]

[quote user="Jim Smith"][quote user="crabbycanary"]2012/13 Premier League - Norwich City, the luckiest team in history[/quote] Not about luck really. Its just that the ultimate league position flattered us. the difference between 11th and 16th was only 3 points (the three points we got at Man City that i would suggest we would not have got in normal circumstances) yet quoting an "11th place finish" in support of Hughton''s record sounds so much more impressive than a "16th place finish" whereas the truth is that it wasn''t really that much more impressive.[/quote]

 

For several years I''ve writing to Sepp Blatter pleading with him to introduce the ''flattery co-efficient'', without it all league placings are irrelevant.

 

 

[crabbycanary 2]

[quote user="Jim Smith"][quote user="crabbycanary"]2012/13 Premier League - Norwich City, the luckiest team in history[/quote] Not about luck really. Its just that the ultimate league position flattered us. the difference between 11th and 16th was only 3 points (the three points we got at Man City that i would suggest we would not have got in normal circumstances) yet quoting an "11th place finish" in support of Hughton''s record sounds so much more impressive than a "16th place finish" whereas the truth is that it wasn''t really that much more impressive.[/quote]

 

Oh I see, so no other team had a run of positive results or had any lucky wins then? That must make us the luckiest team surely?

[Jim Smith 2,317]

[quote user="crabbycanary"]

[quote user="Jim Smith"][quote user="crabbycanary"]2012/13 Premier League - Norwich City, the luckiest team in history[/quote] Not about luck really. Its just that the ultimate league position flattered us. the difference between 11th and 16th was only 3 points (the three points we got at Man City that i would suggest we would not have got in normal circumstances) yet quoting an "11th place finish" in support of Hughton''s record sounds so much more impressive than a "16th place finish" whereas the truth is that it wasn''t really that much more impressive.[/quote]

 

Oh I see, so no other team had a run of positive results or had any lucky wins then? That must make us the luckiest team surely?

[/quote]

No but just as there are ways and means of winning a game or it could be said that "the result flattered" a team i think our league position flattered us a bit. Had we been 20 points clear of relegation or even 20 points clear of 16th, 17th then i think you could say that Hughton and Norwich had clearly performed markedly better than those teams and his achievement in finishing 11th was far more creditable than the achievements of those teams who finished in 16th/17th. As it was, i don;t think you can say that. we could have finished 17th with 3 points less and it would make little or no difference to my personal view as to how well he and the team performed last season.

[Bury Green 0]

[quote user="norfolkbroadslim"]

 

Nonsense

The reason this thread has gone the way it has is because the OP has tried to re-write history and make up a load of claptrap about last season to fit his agenda!

 

The wins we got last season were all lucky and the wins everyone else got weren''t?  And to think the OP is SUPPOSED to be a Norwich fan!

 

[:@]

[/quote]

So why is this nonsense?

Do the numbers for yourself, over a rolling thirty eight game set of results see what the percentages look like?

Once again we return to the dismal land of Keep the Faith, blind to the realities of our footballing lot, where any form of critical analysis somehow makes you less of a supporter.

People like you would get on well in North Korea, you aren''t allowed to question the Dear Leader there either.

[The ghost of Michael Theoklitos 0]

[quote user="Jim Smith"][quote user="crabbycanary"]2012/13 Premier League - Norwich City, the luckiest team in history[/quote]

Not about luck really. Its just that the ultimate league position flattered us. the difference between 11th and 16th was only 3 points (the three points we got at Man City that i would suggest we would not have got in normal circumstances) yet quoting an "11th place finish" in support of Hughton''s record sounds so much more impressive than a "16th place finish" whereas the truth is that it wasn''t really that much more impressive.[/quote]You could use the same logic to make the opposite argument on our current plight. We''re only 1 win for 14th. Nowhere near the bottom 3.Personally, I couldn''t give a sh|te about where we finished in last years league right now. I just want to know how we''re going to progress in the games we have coming up this season. Currently we still with Hughton. Is that because they''re backing him, or because they can''t see a better replacement? Or, are they finding time to make sure they have a replacement ready to go?These are the things we should be discussing, rather than history.

[TCCANARY 263]

[quote user="Bury Green"][quote user="norfolkbroadslim"]

 

Nonsense

The reason this thread has gone the way it has is because the OP has tried to re-write history and make up a load of claptrap about last season to fit his agenda!

 

The wins we got last season were all lucky and the wins everyone else got weren''t?  And to think the OP is SUPPOSED to be a Norwich fan!

 

[:@]

[/quote] So why is this nonsense? Do the numbers for yourself, over a rolling thirty eight game set of results see what the percentages look like? Once again we return to the dismal land of Keep the Faith, blind to the realities of our footballing lot, where any form of critical analysis somehow makes you less of a supporter. People like you would get on well in North Korea, you aren''t allowed to question the Dear Leader there either.[/quote]

 

A ''rolling'' thirty-eight game of results? How about the set of results where you play each team twice, once at home and one away, that sounds like a fair way of measuring.

 

 

 

 

[Bury Green 0]

What rapier like powers of intelligence, do that and you end up where exactly?

You carry in ignoring the elephant in the room if you so choose but the writing had been firmly on the wall for some time, it''s all coming home to roost.

"Keep the Faith"

[crabbycanary 2]

Jim, I think to get a better appreciation of the whole thing is if you have a sit round a table with one fan from every team that finished between , say 8th, and the bottom, go through all their fixtures to see if they think their team were flattered to win any of their games, then draw up a League table and come back on here.

It''s your opinion about your team, you haven''t worked in the co-efficient of other teams and how they achieved the points they did.

[Jim Smith 2,317]

[quote user="crabbycanary"]

Jim, I think to get a better appreciation of the whole thing is if you have a sit round a table with one fan from every team that finished between , say 8th, and the bottom, go through all their fixtures to see if they think their team were flattered to win any of their games, then draw up a League table and come back on here.

It''s your opinion about your team, you haven''t worked in the co-efficient of other teams and how they achieved the points they did.

[/quote]

Don''t need to do that i am just saying that I think Hughton gets too much credit for the 11th placed finish last season. Yes we finished 11th and no it wasn''t a myth but had we finished 16th would people still band that around as evidence of what a good manager he is and why he should keep his job? i doubt it yet the reality is that 3 points separated us from 16th. In that context my own view (just my view you can take a different one if you like) is that finishing 11th was flattering. I would have felt the same about Hughton had we finished with 3 points less in 16th - as might have reasonably been expected ahead of the Man City game on the last day of the season - and that is predominantly underwhelmed and with little or no faith he is good enough to take us forward.

[Zak Van Burger 0]

I thought we were unlucky to only finish 11th, there were a few dodgy penalties awarded against us early in the season that cost us points.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Yep, those elephants have definitely come home to roost.

I find it amazing that people are happy to argue last seasons position of 11th was flattering as it was only 3 points above 16th but then ignore how tight the bottom end of the table is now. You can''t have it both ways!

My view is te middle of the Prem is always very congested and a small margin makes the difference between comfort and a relegation fight. Last season I think City did have a reasonable mix of luck over the season and our eventual placing was about right. What is wrong is to pick on one or two games, say "we were lucky there" and therefore discount those fixtures. Why not also look at games when we were unlucky?

[morty 0]

[quote user="Jim Smith"][quote user="crabbycanary"]

Jim, I think to get a better appreciation of the whole thing is if you have a sit round a table with one fan from every team that finished between , say 8th, and the bottom, go through all their fixtures to see if they think their team were flattered to win any of their games, then draw up a League table and come back on here.

It''s your opinion about your team, you haven''t worked in the co-efficient of other teams and how they achieved the points they did.

[/quote]

Don''t need to do that i am just saying that I think Hughton gets too much credit for the 11th placed finish last season. Yes we finished 11th and no it wasn''t a myth but had we finished 16th would people still band that around as evidence of what a good manager he is and why he should keep his job? i doubt it yet the reality is that 3 points separated us from 16th. In that context my own view (just my view you can take a different one if you like) is that finishing 11th was flattering. I would have felt the same about Hughton had we finished with 3 points less in 16th - as might have reasonably been expected ahead of the Man City game on the last day of the season - and that is predominantly underwhelmed and with little or no faith he is good enough to take us forward.[/quote]Balancing slightly your obvious bias here, Hughton''s remit was to keep us up, which he did in the traditionally difficult Premiership second season. On the back of one of our finest managers ever walking out on us. And he finished above where the messiah finished the season before. Frankly it would have made no difference had he finished 16th, if you have the common sense to temper your expectations, based on the facts I have already mentioned.Make judgements about what is happening this season, no problem, but what you are basically trying to do here is imply he deserves no credit for where we finished in the league last season, which is frankly ridiculous.

[Jim Smith 2,317]

No i''m not implying he gets no credit. He gets credit for keeping us up. What i am saying though is actually in line with what you say - the credit should be the same whether he kept us up in 16th or in 11 th because last season there was very little difference between the two in points/performance terms. some seasons there will be, some seasons there won;t be. He gets credit for keeping us up but please spare me the raving about being 11th or "second highest prem finish in our history" as if it was a great season because frankly in terms of what sort of season it was that is misleading.

I have formed my judgment on Hughton over watching him over 48 games. I don;t really care about the point made above re it being a tight league and the fact we are still within touching distance. I can see the reason the comment has been made given the point i am trying to make but its really not the same point. The fact other teams may be playing equally poorly does not make Hughton and our team''s underperformance any more acceptable in my book or mean we should persist with him, its just a silver lining really as it means that the situation is retrievable if the board gets rid. My view is formed overwhelmingly on the basis of watching our games and that i think he is a poor manager who may be "experienced" but actually for one so experienced displays a remarkable inability to read a game and think on his feet during play/influence the outcome of games. i also think his coaches are not up to it. I have no faith or belief that they will be capable of doing anything better than maybe just scraping safety this season if they are kept on. That may be enough for some but I personally don''t think it is and worse still i think if they are kept on there is a string chance we will get relegated. Conversely it is my view that there is enough in this squad for a capable manager to have us doing a lot better. 

[Gordon Bennett 783]

There is a saying which I am a great believer in, and its that the league table never lies.

Every team plays all the others twice over thirty eight games and whatever order the games are played in, whoever may or may not have been ''on the beach'' and whether most of a teams points were gained in a ten game run or not, clubs finish exactly where they deserve to over a full campaign.

Pretty straightforward really.

[morty 0]

[quote user="Bagpuss"]There is a saying which I am a great believer in, and its that the league table never lies.

Every team plays all the others twice over thirty eight games and whatever order the games are played in, whoever may or may not have been ''on the beach'' and whether most of a teams points were gained in a ten game run or not, clubs finish exactly where they deserve to over a full campaign.

Pretty straightforward really.[/quote][Y]

[Matt Juler 148]

Bagpuss, Morty et al... what enjoyment do you actually get from football?  Do you want to get away from the wife that much that you''d happily go along on a Saturday afternoon and watch the complete cr@p that we''ve had to put up with over the last 11 months?  I really don''t care about where we finished last season, or the fact we''re 18th at the moment after the run of games we''ve had, I just want to see a manager who can extract every last ounce of ability out of our squad of players.  From what I''ve seen I don''t believe Mr Hughton can do that, you may disagree, but we''re in a malaise at the moment and I can''t see any route out that doesn''t involve a new man with new ideas leading the team.It''s not too late to turn this season around, as the few who still believe keep telling us the season is still young, but we could very quickly be cut adrift if we don''t act now.  None of us are mind readers (Wiz may disagree), but I just can''t see Hughton turning it around, regardless of the result against West Ham this weekend.

[Dubai Mark 0]

Nice one Davros! I like balanced arguments and in this case I think it is clear, that the league position you finish in is exactly where you deserve to be even if it is a little flattering in some peoples eye''s. For me, being 100% honest on the subject, I actually think that our league position over the previous two seasons has been "slightly Flattering"...yes, that''s under Hughton and Lambert. However, I would never admit it as I see the world through a nice pair of green and yellow specs...

[nutty nigel 7,528]

[quote user="Bury Green"]If indeed the manager has a ''rolling year'' as his contractual arrangement with the club then how about analysing his performance on a rolling basis over the course of a year?

Do this and it makes for some pretty desperate reading and of course there are two ''stand out'' results which is pretty much where this thread started.

Seemingly though for those willing to cling to the wreckage with a good and hearty "Keep the Faith" reminiscent of other glorious chapters in the clubs history the two games at the end of last season weren''t a sticking plaster over a gaping wound.

Follow their logic and we''d still have Worthington in charge somewhere in the lower reaches of the Football League.[/quote]

 

Your grasp of the logic you are spouting is about as good as your grasp of the facts in front of you.

 

If you follow what appears to be your logic Worthy would never have managed us because as far as I''m aware Lol Morgan is still alive. As for last season... well here''s a novel idea... lets forget about the 10 game run and the beach football. It''s as irrelevant as trying to make excuses for injuries or anything else that might affect results. The league table is a true account of what happened last season and that''s what we were paid out on.

 

If Hughton is as bad as his detractors make out the why do they need to keep manipulating facts to put his record in a bad light?

 

 

[Gordon Bennett 783]

I never offered an opinion on CH, whether I''m happy with what I''ve seen this year (or last) or anything else, other than disagreeing with the viewpoint that finishing 11th last season was lucky.

[Bury Green 0]

So then NN, if you are indeed all knowing and all powerful why did the bookies have us down as one of the favourites for the drop?

I''m no gambler, I don''t see the point as these multi million pound businesses are there to take money of the unwitting but if what you say is true then the complex statistical analysis they employ must then be wrong?

Not that you''re ever likely to admit you''re wrong, Kim Jong Nutty

"Leader, Leader, Leader"

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

[quote user="Matt Juler"]Bagpuss, Morty et al... what enjoyment do you actually get from football?  Do you want to get away from the wife that much that you''d happily go along on a Saturday afternoon and watch the complete cr@p that we''ve had to put up with over the last 11 months?  I really don''t care about where we finished last season, or the fact we''re 18th at the moment after the run of games we''ve had, I just want to see a manager who can extract every last ounce of ability out of our squad of players.  From what I''ve seen I don''t believe Mr Hughton can do that, you may disagree, but we''re in a malaise at the moment and I can''t see any route out that doesn''t involve a new man with new ideas leading the team.It''s not too late to turn this season around, as the few who still believe keep telling us the season is still young, but we could very quickly be cut adrift if we don''t act now.  None of us are mind readers (Wiz may disagree), but I just can''t see Hughton turning it around, regardless of the result against West Ham this weekend.[/quote]

Sorry, Matt but I''ve been a City fan for a while a d the "crap" over the last season stacks up pretty well compared to our many years in lower leagues watching utter dross against teams like port vale. We''d have loved "crap" that included beating Man U, Arsenal and Man City then.

[Citizen Journalist Foghorn 0]

11th was no myth! You can only beat what is in front of you and over the season we achieved enough points for that finish.

What Chris Hughton achieved last season was impressive given we paid off our debts.

What the 11th place finish did hide, is up dropping towards the drop zone, only achieving safety with 2 games to play. We may have finished 12th in 2011-12, but we were safe months before the season end.

The last two games also papered over the cracks of an otherwise impotent attack.

[nutty nigel 7,528]

[quote user="Bury Green"]So then NN, if you are indeed all knowing and all powerful why did the bookies have us down as one of the favourites for the drop?

I''m no gambler, I don''t see the point as these multi million pound businesses are there to take money of the unwitting but if what you say is true then the complex statistical analysis they employ must then be wrong?

Not that you''re ever likely to admit you''re wrong, Kim Jong Nutty

"Leader, Leader, Leader"[/quote]

 

WTF?

 

 

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

[quote user="Bury Green"]So then NN, if you are indeed all knowing and all powerful why did the bookies have us down as one of the favourites for the drop?

I''m no gambler, I don''t see the point as these multi million pound businesses are there to take money of the unwitting but if what you say is true then the complex statistical analysis they employ must then be wrong?

Not that you''re ever likely to admit you''re wrong, Kim Jong Nutty

"Leader, Leader, Leader"[/quote]

I think we were favourites for the drop under lambert as a newly promoted team paying relatively low wages. The next season we were expected to be in the bottom 3 according to the bookies which again was based on our relatively low wages and it being our second season back up etc.

So pretty impressive for the managers in both years to finish mid table in defiance of those expert bookies'' predictions, eh?

[nutty nigel 7,528]

I really don''t understand how the bookies odds can be used to prove anything. I would think during the season the odds fluctuated greatly totally governed by what folk were betting on. In October we were 4/6 to be relegated while QPR were 7/2. I find bookies odds about as reliable as "football manager" in determining how things will pan out. Quite incredible that Bury should hold such faith in such things.

 

 

[Bury Green 0]

Ah but don''t forget we finished 11th and as such any questioning of the mangers abilities is right out of the question.

The board then back him with levels of expenditure we could only have dreamed about just a few years ago and yet once again the majority of bookmakers had us down as relegation candidates.

First season it was quite understandable, last season the same, second season syndrome perhaps but the third year in a row, why might this have been?

See as Kim Jong Nigel seems more content to offer up ''WTF'' as his ever thoughtful and enlightened response why did most of the bookies see us as potential cannon fodder this season?

So no it''s not ''WTF'' it''s try answering the F-ing question, after all we had them outclassed on Saturday until they got seven lucky goals

[nutty nigel 7,528]

Bury.. are you sure you''re a well man?

 

What is the question?