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Matt Morriss

11th Position Myth

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--- nutty nigel: I really don''t understand how the bookies odds can be used to prove anything.

My word, you are apparently Kim-Jong Nigel now.... What on earth are they saying about Morty.

I find it quite difficult to understand how rampant the Hughton-outers are. We will know in three games time exactly where we stand this season. It is hard to become rampant about anything after a set of five games including ManC, ManU, Arsenal and Chelsea.

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Read it slowly, try and think for a bit, then try and come back with something more thoughtful than last time.

At the start of the season, despite having finished eleventh, despite having spent £25m or thereabouts, the majority of bookies had us down as one of the favourites to go down, why might this have been?

Because Mavis the tea lady at Ladbrooks thought it seemed like a good idea or that they and indeed the market thought that we were, as is proving to be horribly real, likely to go down.

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I get extremely annoyed at people trying to change the meaning of the English language in order to further their agenda, as did the OP.

There are many sticks you can use to beat Hughton with, but trying to claim we weren''t 11th last season , or that we didn''t "really" beat certain teams, only weakens your case & makes you look ridiculous.

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Not forgetting that some of the so called media experts, including Michael Owen and Robbie Savage also had us in their bottom 3 selections before the season started.

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OK.. read it again. Are you saying that the bookies odds prove that we were in a false position?

 

That''s a huge leap to make! I wouldn''t have thought so. I should think the odds compilers more likely base their odds on the teams comparative playing budgets for the season ahead. They would know that those figures are the most reliable indicator before a ball is kicked.

 

 

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[quote user="Bury Green"][quote user="norfolkbroadslim"]

 

Nonsense

The reason this thread has gone the way it has is because the OP has tried to re-write history and make up a load of claptrap about last season to fit his agenda!

 

The wins we got last season were all lucky and the wins everyone else got weren''t?  And to think the OP is SUPPOSED to be a Norwich fan!

 

[:@]

[/quote] So why is this nonsense? Do the numbers for yourself, over a rolling thirty eight game set of results see what the percentages look like? Once again we return to the dismal land of Keep the Faith, blind to the realities of our footballing lot, where any form of critical analysis somehow makes you less of a supporter. People like you would get on well in North Korea, you aren''t allowed to question the Dear Leader there either.[/quote]

 

You''re either really thick or on a windup or both!

 

The OP was trying to rewrite history to show how incredibly lucky the team he (supposedly) supports, had been to stay up.   Putting to one side the fact that we would have still survived had we lost the last 2. He did this purely and simply to try and add weight to his own agenda against Chris Hughton, to make out his record was even worse than it actually is.

 

Just what exactly don''t you understand about this???????

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But not so thick that I can''t look at a rolling thirty eight game average or as is more likely the case, not daring to.

As mentioned previously, I suggested this initially because the mangers terms of employment are supposedly based on a rolling yearly contract so why not do the same with the results.

It''s not really that hard to do, actually, well, mmmm..........

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Let me start my post by making it clear that my personal feeling is that the club should be looking at replacing Chris Hughton as i do not feel that we will progress under him. With that out of the way lets take a look at what this thread has thrown up, apparently our win at Man City were the three points that had us finishing 11th unstead of 16th, not the win against Arsenal, or Man Utd or any of the other wins - The simple fact remains that your final league position is determined by the number of points you accrue over 38 games in relation to how many points the other 19 teams accrue over their 38 games, I cannot fathom why certain posters cannot grasp this very simple fact.

Apparently the bookies odds are the benchmark we should be watching (not results/league position or points). I only wish betting on the horses was that simple, whack a grand on the 2-1 favourite each time and bobs your uncle, this time next year you will be a millionaire as the bookies never get it wrong......

The OP starts a post harping on about last year to make a point, gets totally shot down in flames, then accuses all those that showed the arguement to be seriously flawed of harping on about last year.......my irony meter went off the scale with that one........

I

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Truth be told I''m not entirely sure,I thought it was a rolling deal not withstanding that I just had a look at how the numbers read over the rolling thirty eight game period.

Big big OUCH

If it is a three year deal I''m even more fed up than I was already, it''ll be even more money the club will have to stump up in the next few weeks

It just keeps getting better and better at the moment

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]

I think Bury Green''s ill.

 

 

[/quote]

Careful you''ve just admitted to thinking, to date it''s not been that evident

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]

OK.. read it again. Are you saying that the bookies odds prove that we were in a false position?

 

That''s a huge leap to make! I wouldn''t have thought so. I should think the odds compilers more likely base their odds on the teams comparative playing budgets for the season ahead. They would know that those figures are the most reliable indicator before a ball is kicked.

 

 

[/quote]

 

Bumped just in case Bury Green wopuld like to comment.

 

 

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Get Hooghton out ffs, and while we''re at it give the board a slap round the cheeks.

(gonna re-post a post I posted in another thread someone posted cos I want someone to post a reply to this post)

Fed up of this idea that we''re expected to lose to most teams in this league, such as Man City. So? Who gives a fook? That''s no excuse for being royally fooked over 7-0 is it? Only excuse for that is poor tactics from the start. We''ve proven over our first 2 PL campaigns that we can compete with the ''big boys'', even with a team supposedly less capable than our team now. This is our third season now in the premier league, we have a more than capable squad, more than capable facilities, yet the club and most of our supporters seem perfectly content with ''expecting'' to lose against the bigger teams, and when we do we take it on the chin, say we tried, hop back on our tractors/sisters, and wait for the next inevitable 3-0 defeat.

We''re becoming a joke of a club; a very small fish in a not that big pond. It kills me to see Southampton and Swansea perform the way they do, both are clubs of similar sizes and similar squad ability to us yet we''re nowhere near them in terms of ambition and current performance level. The club coming out and saying that ''we can''t afford European football'' or whatever nonsense it was they said made me want to shoot someone, if we''re being told that we can''t afford to play at the top, then what''s the point in playing at all?!?!?!? Where''s the fun in lower-to-mid-table finishes every season? There isn''t any. I could go on about this for days but you get the picture.

We need to shake off this little ol'' Norwich mentality fast because it''s genuinely embarrassing.

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[quote user="Bury Green"]But not so thick that I can''t look at a rolling thirty eight game average or as is more likely the case, not daring to. As mentioned previously, I suggested this initially because the mangers terms of employment are supposedly based on a rolling yearly contract so why not do the same with the results. It''s not really that hard to do, actually, well, mmmm..........[/quote]

 

What has a rolling 38 game average got to do with what the OP was trying to claim????[:^)]

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Now unless I missed something the club backed the manager like never before this summer, making us possibly the eighth or ninth highest spenders in the Prem?

£25m or whatever the actual figure was it certainly outweighs anything in our history and yet, come the start of the season the bookies, detestable things that they are, smelt blood in he water at FCR, how so?

As stated above the board backed the manager handsomely, we''d finished 11th and yet they saw something about the overall state of the club that led them to think we''d struggle.

Now irrespective of wether or not you like gambling or not these are mutti million pound operations that, on average, get it right more often than the punter does, it''s why they''re there.

If the manger turns it round then it''s happy days, they''re wrong, I''m wrong, we all end up happy but the reality of our situation is, I fear, rather different.

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[quote user="Bury Green"]Truth be told I''m not entirely sure,I thought it was a rolling deal not withstanding that I just had a look at how the numbers read over the rolling thirty eight game period. Big big OUCH If it is a three year deal I''m even more fed up than I was already, it''ll be even more money the club will have to stump up in the next few weeks It just keeps getting better and better at the moment[/quote]

 

OK, I''ll play your 38 game rolling average game -

 

Please do tell us how the numbers you have read over a 38 game rolling average?  And how this is a "Big big OUCH"?

 

I assume by a 38 game rolling average you are just talking about the league and not including the Disneyland Cups?  And if not, then why 38 games? 

 

A 38 game rolling average has us currently 2 points worse off than we finished last season with.  So that has us on 42 points over the last 38 games.  Please enlighten us all why a 2 point swing is in your opinion a "Big big OUCH"?[:^)]

 

It seems to me that you too are trying to use anything you can to try and prove your own agenda!!![:@]

 

 

 

 

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[quote user="Bury Green"]Now unless I missed something the club backed the manager like never before this summer, making us possibly the eighth or ninth highest spenders in the Prem? £25m or whatever the actual figure was it certainly outweighs anything in our history and yet, come the start of the season the bookies, detestable things that they are, smelt blood in he water at FCR, how so? As stated above the board backed the manager handsomely, we''d finished 11th and yet they saw something about the overall state of the club that led them to think we''d struggle. Now irrespective of wether or not you like gambling or not these are mutti million pound operations that, on average, get it right more often than the punter does, it''s why they''re there. If the manger turns it round then it''s happy days, they''re wrong, I''m wrong, we all end up happy but the reality of our situation is, I fear, rather different.[/quote]

 

So what you are now saying is that while you do indeed acknowledge that we finished last season in 11th position, the board should sack Hughton simply because we were one of the favourites for relegation at some of the bookies! 

 

"Hi Chris.  Davy Mac here, just got back from my hols.  Now I know you did a good job last season and we finished 11th, but I''ve just seen the relegation odds on Billy Hills and we are one of the favourites for relegation.  Unfortunately, therefore you are sacked!"

 

I''ve heard it all on here, but this!  You are obviously on a windup.  Do one!

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You obviously haven''t taken on board what I said Bury although the unbelievable ranting seems to have ceased. Did you take your meds?

 

The most reliable yardstick in forecasting the premier league positions is the player budget. The wages not the transfer fees. Each year the league reflects that with some exceptions. Us being one of the more notable exceptions.

 

If you look at the premier league table now you will see huge discrepancies between league positions and relegation odds. Hull are 10th with 14 points while Villa are 14th with 11. Yet Hull are 3/1 and Villa 16/1. There''s nothing on current form or from the game where they played eachother to warrant such a gap in prices. What do you think makes the bookies so brave?

 

 

 

 

 

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we finished 11th, its not a myth, over 38 games we deserved it, but the difference between teams in 11th and 18th is hardly anything, the bottom half were and still are all similar quality(or similar lack of quality)

Also why would Man city be on the beach but we werent?we had achieved all we needed to.

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[quote user="norfolkbroadslim"][quote user="Bury Green"][quote user="norfolkbroadslim"]

 

Nonsense

The reason this thread has gone the way it has is because the OP has tried to re-write history and make up a load of claptrap about last season to fit his agenda!

 

The wins we got last season were all lucky and the wins everyone else got weren''t?  And to think the OP is SUPPOSED to be a Norwich fan!

 

[:@]

[/quote] So why is this nonsense? Do the numbers for yourself, over a rolling thirty eight game set of results see what the percentages look like? Once again we return to the dismal land of Keep the Faith, blind to the realities of our footballing lot, where any form of critical analysis somehow makes you less of a supporter. People like you would get on well in North Korea, you aren''t allowed to question the Dear Leader there either.[/quote]

 

You''re either really thick or on a windup or both!

 

The OP was trying to rewrite history to show how incredibly lucky the team he (supposedly) supports, had been to stay up.   Putting to one side the fact that we would have still survived had we lost the last 2. He did this purely and simply to try and add weight to his own agenda against Chris Hughton, to make out his record was even worse than it actually is.

 

Just what exactly don''t you understand about this???????

[/quote]

Right, 1 im not trying to rewrite history, its obvious that people have taken the title far too literally. Of course im not trying to convince people we didnt finish 11th, we finished 11th!!! The point im making, that a lot of people on this thread have cottoned onto, is that the 11th position finish created the myth that we had a good season and that Hughton is a good manager.

And 2 I do support my team, and have done for 30 yrs. Thats why I get so passionate when things are dire. I would question the support of someone that doesnt seem to give a toss were in the bottom 3 and have looked $ hite for 11 months.

7-0 is unacceptable. Bottom 3 is unacceptable given the money weve spent and this being our 3rd season. 6 wins in 31 games or whatever it is IS UNACCEPTABLE!!!!! No guts, no passion, no motivation, no confidence. This is all unacceptable. I pay £44 a month to watch the team I love and I have been pi$$ed off for 11 months at the slow demise of the team under Hughton. Ive mentioned before the Monchengladbach friendly last season, I was alarmed at that point because I saw exactly what Hughton was trying to do with the team. He ripped the soul out of the club in those few weeks and we havent been the same since.

Yes weve shown patches of good form this season, but look where we are and its been 10 games.

Here''s an interesting thought, Roeder had a great run of about 10-12 games unbeaten, then it all went to $hit. Key players lost form and confidence, a loan striker was made a scapegoat and prime example of the problems, and rightly so in Sibierski, for him read Elmander who was given so much game time early in the season in Hoolahans role, which i thought was madness, and so it proved. Now look at him, he''s a carthorse and what the hell Hughton was thinking getting him let alone giving him a good run is beyond me.

We now have history repeating itself. Hughton had a good 10 game unbeaten run and its been a slippery slide since. Aside from the last day of last season weve been 18th/17th since bl00dy February!! This season key players have lost form and confidence, Bassong, Snodgrass, Hoolahan and Johnson. Key players that kept us up last season and the season before. Not to mention a key striker slating the manager after his departure, Hucks/Roeder & Holt/Hughton.

Oh and lest we forget Hughton is also a former Newcastle manager like Roeder. We used to play well at home under Roeder too but inevitably lost cause of certain shortcomings in the team. We were also woeful away. This all seems to much like history repeating itself.

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[quote user="YellowFellow"]we finished 11th, its not a myth, over 38 games we deserved it, but the difference between teams in 11th and 18th is hardly anything, the bottom half were and still are all similar quality(or similar lack of quality)

Also why would Man city be on the beach but we werent?we had achieved all we needed to.[/quote]

Cause we still had plenty to play for you fool! Man City had no manager and finished 2nd. We didnt want to finish 17th and wanted an extra £4m!!!! Lucky we had managerless Man City. That is all.

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So now we should sack Hughton because he''s a former Newcastle manager like Roeder! LOL

 

I think there''s mileage in this though....

 

How about we sack him cuz his name begins with H like Hitler?

 

 

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Staying up last season was an excellent and unexpected outcome. Hughton deserves great credit for that, it helped wipe our debt and greatly improve our squad. Lambert did not really think it was possible.

Constructing a side that could keep clean sheets in the Prem from what he inherited defensively was impressive.

Last year''s job, was last year. The end justified any means and we would all gave agreed that before the season.

The feel good factor created from two late wins raised expectations levels and the badge of honour from finishing 11th was great.

The premier league us tight from 9th to 17th and is likely to remain this way for the foreseeable future. We are aiming to stay in this group. This is not in any way little old Norwich. Taken in the context of the last 30 years it represents phenomenal success.

Stats from this season show that we have played 8 or 9 of the current top 10 ( MU cup inc). Of the 3 sides we have played in the bottom half, we beat Stoke, drew with Cardiff in a dominant display, and we''re unlucky against lucky Lambert (his luck foes appear to be a skill).

If the timing if our last two fixtures of last season were lucky, this season''s is unlucky. The argument must work both ways. On the beach teams also often play relaxed 5-a-side football...Fulham anyone....?

Hughton has approached this season very differently to last year, he may even have been too progressive too quickly (Southampton perfect Italian coaching performance) and tried too hard to please the fans (Chelsea).

I would argue that the argument you use to criticise Hughton last season could be used to defend him now.

I make a prediction: The board will support him now, and he will still be in charge after Palace, by which point we will be well outside the relegation zone.

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I make a prediction: The board will support him now, and he will still be in charge after Palace, by which point we will be well outside the relegation zone.

I''ll go with that one as well. We will look back on last week in Manchester as a blip at the end of the season.

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For the record, I now believe it is time for a managerial change but the argument Huckerby''s boots makes cuts both ways. We were indeed fortunate to play West Brom and Man City at a time when both had little to play for. However, for example West Brom and West Ham could have regarded themselves as fortunate to have played a Norwich side which didn''t have John Ruddy and any recognised strikers (Harry Kane is not a legitimate striker at this level). Wigan also played the same demotivated West Brom team the week before us and won. They were also fortunate and their run in wasn''t as horrific as Huckerby''s boots suggests. Norwich were incredibly unfortunate against Arsenal at the Emirates not to win (and being very generous about Richard West''s decision making that day). Ultimately over a 38 game season you do end up where you deserve to be.

 

There are many valid criticisms you can make this season about Chris Hughton''s management. Namely that despite the fact we have invested £25 million we still appear ponderous and slow in our build up, the defensive solidarity which gained us so many good results around this time last year now also appears to have completely evaporated and that players appear to get into the side irrespective of form/fitness (Snodgrass and Bassong in particular have both played when both haven''t looked remotely match fit). When you have all those points to choose from criticising a manager for achieving our highest finish in 20 years wouldn''t be my first port of call.  

 

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]

You obviously haven''t taken on board what I said Bury although the unbelievable ranting seems to have ceased. Did you take your meds?

 

The most reliable yardstick in forecasting the premier league positions is the player budget. The wages not the transfer fees. Each year the league reflects that with some exceptions. Us being one of the more notable exceptions.

 

If you look at the premier league table now you will see huge discrepancies between league positions and relegation odds. Hull are 10th with 14 points while Villa are 14th with 11. Yet Hull are 3/1 and Villa 16/1. There''s nothing on current form or from the game where they played eachother to warrant such a gap in prices. What do you think makes the bookies so brave?

 

 

 

 

 

[/quote]

Only the ones that are required to make you less of an odious forum popinjay

We were one of the favourites to go down at the start of the season despite having a player budget to go with the £25m we spent on new players and, if you press some buttons on your ''pooter'', remain the third favourite for the drop.

This unless you are absolutely blind to the reality of our situation acts as a bit of a barometer for where our chances might lay in the coming months but not exclusively so.

Factor in a truly shameful display at the weekend, a timid and tame cup exit again, a truly pathetic performance on the opening day, a lame performance against Villa, the list goes on and I, like others, cannot see how it''s going to improve anytime soon.

None of this will change your status as self appointed forum demagogue I''m sure, you can''t afford to admit the realities of our current situation are dire and getting worse by the week can you?.

Being in possession of two sets of ticket stubs to Manchester in the last week I''m absolutely convinced that bookies were right, are right and will remain so unless there is a change to the management of our team.

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