3 to go down

[nutty nigel 7,531]

[quote user="Reggie Strayshun"]As I''ve said, unless we take full advantage and win a substantial proportion of the next 5 games, then it WILL need more than a slight improvement to get the 45-50 pts you predict, Nigel.

As usual I think it''ll need 40 pts to guarantee survival, and I think we may do that, but only by the skin of our teeth. It really is more touch and go than some on here realise, already.

I also have a sneaking feeling that Sunderland might improve significantly.

Palace are certainties, and the other 2 from Us, Stoke, Hull , Fulham and Sunderland. I fear that if we''ve not got at least 15 pts by end Nov, we will become the favourites for the drop.[/quote]

 

So you think we''ll get 40 points then Reggie. I love having someone else on the hook for a change so how many of those points do you see us getting by halfway? How many do you see us getting in the next 6 home games starting with Cardiff?

 

 

 

 

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

No , Nige. I''m not wriggling here, but you are slightly misrepresenting what I wrote. I did not say that we WOULD get 40 pts, but that we MAY get them. And suggesting 40 pts is the minimum requirement for survival is hardly earth shattering guesswork is it ?

Unlike some, I''m not really in the prediction game, but, seeing as it''s you I''ll make an exception, as regards the next FIVE games. I''m afraid I think we will only get 5 points from these matches...specifically, draws with Cardiff, and Wet Spam. A win v Palace, and defeats at Newcastle and Man Citeh.

What''s your predictions on these fixtures ? Go on...you know you want to.

[The Big Bad Wolf 0]

I think 7 points. We might get a scrappy 1-0 vs Cardiff, beat Palace and draw with WHU. I can''t see anything from MC and NU.

Three to go down...Palace, Sunderland and Cardiff.

[Citizen Journalist Foghorn 0]

Palace, Sunderland and either Cardiff or Stoke for me.

Fulham will finish around 14th as usual.

[nutty nigel 7,531]

I''m not doing anymore Reggie[:''(] Totally fed up of it now[:P]

 

 

[Indy 3,297]

It is funny how anyone can say we will get anywhere near 50 points! that would require us to get 43 points from 30 games an average of 1.43 points a game and would have put us in 8th last season.

 

In all honesty who can predict the bottom 3 just 8 games in! There are 7 or 8 teams who will be battling it out until the end of the season, Palace for me are on who are most likely to go down, but there after that it''s anyones call.

 

Our season is in our own hands and a lot depends on our next 5 home games, we must be looking at not losing any of the 5 an picking up a minimum of 12 points.

 

It''s easy to go on current from and we all know thaty teams will have a good run at some point, so Sunderland will close that gap, will it be enoug for them as they will need to average a 1.3 points per game to reach that magical 40 points?

 

So I would guess that Cardiff, Palace and Sunderland might go down, but I don''t think we will be too far ahead those three.

[nutty nigel 7,531]

Has anyone said we could get 50 points? If you''re referring to me I said I thought we''d get 45/50 points. I still believe that. I also think that 45/50 points could well not see a club safe until the last 2/3 games. And should that be the case Hughton will be criticised for not getting us safe earlier as he was last season. But I''m also very aware that each season is different. Last season the whole bottom half were not far ahead of the relegated teams and in fact to be far ahead of them we would have to have been top 8. So having criticised someone elses forecast Indy let''s be ''avin'' yours....

 

  

[Indy 3,297]

Sorry Nutty but I am not criticising you just suprised that you would still see us geting anywhere near 50 points.

 

I said at the start of the seaosn, eveyone has spent money, even teams who have come up, so I said from the start I would be happy to see us stay up, so 17th for me would be superb.

 

I still think we will end up on 38 points and 16th place, I believe Palace, Cardiff and Sunderland will be anywhere between 30 points to 36 points.

 

I''ve always had my doubts about our style to get the results and still do, I doubt we will ever see Norwich achieve above 50 points, I think if anything we will become a Fulham and bob just above the relgetion zone each season, we just don''t have the financial backing or the manager required to push us on.

[Indy 3,297]

To be fair Nutty, Hughton derserved some criticism for his set up and style since December 2012 and even this year we control periods of games and yet fail to create good chances! Has Hughton addressed this? No according to Hughton we don''t need an attacking coach!

 

I don''t want to see Hughton go but I also understand that in any business you need to have good managers who know how to ge the best out of the staff and in this case we need to improve on the attacking front. Just my opinion though.

[nutty nigel 7,531]

Indy... Are you criticising Hughton for the way he sets the team up or the whole PL for the way all the teams are set up? Do you see a huge difference between the way Hughton sets his team up to the way the other premier league teams set their teams up? I''m really interested in this because I see little difference between us and the sides around us and I believe that both Hughton and Lambert before him have got more from their budgets than most of the managers of comparable teams have got from bigger budgets. What am I missing?

 

 

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

I''m afraid you''re are wasting your time, Indy. Yesterday I challenged Nigel to justify and quantify this 50 point idea (some may say fantasy). But while he went a little down the explanatory road, it was pretty full of vagaries and the sort of conjecture that is based more on hope than any type of evidence.

I remember that last season, as the "points per game required" figure for QPR and Reading got bigger and bigger, there remained a hard core of people saying it was do-able. Now, I''m not suggesting that we''ve reached that stage yet, but a figure of 1.43 pts per game is already looking a tall order.

[nutty nigel 7,531]

You''re talking ill-informed drivel Reggie. I''ve said what I think as I did last season. I''m there to be shot at but you and Indie play your cards close to your chest preferring to pretend the results were what you expected whatever they are. Why don''t you tell me where we''ll get your 40 points Reggie? Why don''t you tell me where we''ll get your 38 Indy? Last season we had 10 points after 10 games but finished with 44. The previous season we had 13 points after 10 games and finished with 47. Why is a similar scenario so impossible this time? You tell me why you expect us to do so much worse this time? Tell me how you come to such a conclusion?

 

 

 

 

[Indy 3,297]

[quote user="nutty nigel"]

Indy... Are you criticising Hughton for the way he sets the team up or the whole PL for the way all the teams are set up? Do you see a huge difference between the way Hughton sets his team up to the way the other premier league teams set their teams up? I''m really interested in this because I see little difference between us and the sides around us and I believe that both Hughton and Lambert before him have got more from their budgets than most of the managers of comparable teams have got from bigger budgets. What am I missing?

 

 

[/quote]

You know what Nutty at no point have I criticised Hughton''s set up, I think 1 up top and two attacking wingers with a 3 man midfiled is the best way forward. I do have a problem that Hughton is in a performance business, I know he kept us up last year and good job well done. But I think he fails to coach this system to the players, they looked lost for large part of last seaosn and we sat back so deep we looked negative and that has to this point carried over to this seaosn. In patches over the past 3 games we can see the system slowly working.

 

I want to see us get an attacking coach in, fitness is another issue for me, we look far less fit than we did under Lambert and last player motivation, Hughton and the coaches look as if they can''t get the best out of this set of players.

 

I have to disagree with Hughton getting more for his budget than other managers, RVW, Hooper and Elmander (estimated 2 milion with wanges and loan fee, so not free), have yet to set Norwich alight never mind the premiership. So on paper we look to have done the business, but if Hughton and the coaches can''t get them playing in this system then I can''t agree with that for the time being. Fer, Redmond and Olsson were very good signings.

 

Strange that I think he has the system right, the players right, so it must be the coaching? but something is not right just yet, but there are some encouraging signs.

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

What''s ill- informed about it, Nige ? I''ve said that we "may" get 40 pts and, if we do that won''t be "much worse" than last season. It''s not unreasonable to assume, that on previous season''s evidence that this sort of ball-park figure is attainable.

You are right, we may go on a stunning run between now and April and end up challenging for a Europa league spot. But, all the evidence thus far tends to suggest that this is unlikely.

I think all Indy and I are asking is what evidence do you have (other than hunches) that we are going to achieve a total of up to 50 pts ?

It''s a perfectly simple question......

[nutty nigel 7,531]

Indy.. you''re trying to make points about this season''s team with last season''s results. How does that work?

 

Reggie.. Last season we picked up 37 points from the last 29 games. The season before we picked up 35 points from the last 29 games. Why is my assumption we will do much the same this time such a tall order and what do you and Indy base your lower forecasts on?

 

 

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

By the simple calculation that, if your theory holds water (ie if you add the 37/35 pts to our current 7) that will give us a final total of 42 to 44, which is a little lower than the 50 you are suggesting.

I''d agree that 4,5,6 pts does not sound a lot, but margins are very tight in this league. That is what certainly I , base my lower assessment on. That, and the fact that current form is poor.

I''d also agree that a hell of a lot does depend on what happens between now and end Nov.

I''ve not got a gripe with you, but you STILL have not really explained why you think 50 pts is on the cards. I can''t speak for Indy, but my guess is that he''s asking you the same !

[Indy 3,297]

[quote user="nutty nigel"]

Indy.. you''re trying to make points about this season''s team with last season''s results. How does that work?

 

Reggie.. Last season we picked up 37 points from the last 29 games. The season before we picked up 35 points from the last 29 games. Why is my assumption we will do much the same this time such a tall order and what do you and Indy base your lower forecasts on?

 

 

[/quote]

 

That has to be the most inronic reply!!!!!! I''m trying to make the points about this seaon with last season team and then next line!!!!!! LAST SEASON WE PICKED UP £& POINTS!

 

I can see that I can''t communicate with you are you just want to argue with me, so fine, I''ll talk with others.

[nutty nigel 7,531]

[quote user="Indy"][quote user="nutty nigel"]

Indy.. you''re trying to make points about this season''s team with last season''s results. How does that work?

 

Reggie.. Last season we picked up 37 points from the last 29 games. The season before we picked up 35 points from the last 29 games. Why is my assumption we will do much the same this time such a tall order and what do you and Indy base your lower forecasts on?

 

 

[/quote]

 

That has to be the most inronic reply!!!!!! I''m trying to make the points about this seaon with last season team and then next line!!!!!! LAST SEASON WE PICKED UP £& POINTS!

 

I can see that I can''t communicate with you are you just want to argue with me, so fine, I''ll talk with others.

[/quote]

 

It''s only ironic because you have no idea how to justify your 38 points. I believe this side is better than the last two seasons so don''t believe it would be impossible for them to equal the results. What is it about this season''s side that makes yopu think they won''t match the achievements of the previous two squads?

 

 

[nutty nigel 7,531]

[quote user="Reggie Strayshun"]By the simple calculation that, if your theory holds water (ie if you add the 37/35 pts to our current 7) that will give us a final total of 42 to 44, which is a little lower than the 50 you are suggesting.

I''d agree that 4,5,6 pts does not sound a lot, but margins are very tight in this league. That is what certainly I , base my lower assessment on. That, and the fact that current form is poor.

I''d also agree that a hell of a lot does depend on what happens between now and end Nov.

I''ve not got a gripe with you, but you STILL have not really explained why you think 50 pts is on the cards. I can''t speak for Indy, but my guess is that he''s asking you the same ![/quote]

 

I''ve gone a lot further to explaining my forecasted 45/50 points than you or Indy have to explain your 38 and however many points you forecast if you have yet.

 

How about you make a modicum of effort in explaining why we won''t get the points.

 

 

 

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

Nigel, what part of seven points from eight games, and there''s no HARD evidence that we''re likely to much exceed 40 pts, do you not understand , mate ??!!

[nutty nigel 7,531]

So where''s the HARD evidence that we won''t. An opinion is just and opinion no matter how forcibly it''s put. If I have to keep justifying mine to you then surely you would expect to do the same. It was you after all who started asking me to explain my opinion. I think you''re just another of the many WUMs who visit this board when their right hand''s sore...

 

 

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

Now you''re just being silly Nige. Sorry, but all my professional life, I''ve dealt in hard facts...evidence based. as opposed to conjecture.

You remind me of the ex Radio Norfolk guy who was convicted of kiddy-fiddling last week. Apparently during his trial, even in the face of simple , factual, hard evidence, he refused to countenance it.

Your loyalty to the NCFC/ CH cause is touching, and laudable, but clearly we are coming at this from two different standpoints.

[nutty nigel 7,531]

All my professional life I''ve known that Harpic is clean round the bend and so are you Reg. What hard facts do you have to suggest we won''t get 45/50 points? Are you going to tell us that you used to have these facts but someone hacked your computer and stole them? I think it''s you that resembles the kiddy-fiddler...

 

 

 

 

 

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

You make my point eleoquently for me Nige. There aren''t any "facts" about projected points totals in May. Just hypothesis. The only facts that exist are current form, which don''t support your''s !

[nutty nigel 7,531]

[quote user="Reggie Strayshun"]You make my point eleoquently for me Nige. There aren''t any "facts" about projected points totals in May. Just hypothesis. The only facts that exist are current form, which don''t support your''s ![/quote]

 

Clean round the bend doesn''t even halfway go to describing that post. The only facts about current form are those related to past results and there are no facts from current form that could in anyway support any arguments about future results. For someone who like to deal in facts you seem a little bit short of the necessary nous Reggie.

 

 

 

 

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

Really don''t follow that Nige.

You appear to be getting more and more confused.

Please explain.

[nutty nigel 7,531]

There are a multitude of relevant facts. Not just current form. If you choose to predict the future on current form then it''s no more factually based then any other facts used. If it was then we could stop the season here and now. For someone who deals in facts I''m amazed you are so blinkered by just one thing.

 

 

 

 

[CambridgeCanary 0]

If I''m not interrupting a private party, I challenge the assertion and assumption that we will get nothing from the last four games.

We have taken points off top teams in the last two seasons and I can''t see why this season will be different. At the end of the season there are always topsy turvey results.

I think we will get two or three points from those last four games.

[ron obvious 1,502]

"All my professional life I''ve known that Harpic is clean round the bend and so are you Reg. "

Luvvittt!!!!

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

OK then Nigel. I''ll try and make this simple for you, as you seem to be having difficulty grasping this concept.

Precisely what set of facts/circumstances , and over what measurable period (eg till the end of Nov ?) would it take for you to decide, in your own mind that it''s time for a change of manager?

I''m sorry if you (and Ron) think that this concept is a sign of insanity , or whatever, but it is perfectly rational and simple, in that it''s specific and quantifyable both in points and time.

Or put another way....at what point, if the "massive improvement" you predict fails to materialise will even you say enough is enough.?