The amount of goals in the Premier League....

[morty 0]

[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"]--- morty: You''re still talking plop

And I would expect you to say that. Your sheepy mantra is: ''The manager is in charge so he must be making the right decisions'', and anyone who questions said decisions is clearly an idiot talking plop.[/quote]Not in the slightest, but you feel free to just make up your own version.Seriously one minute we''re talking about goals and then we spin round to sheep like supporters following Worthington and Doomcaster blindly?Bit of an agenda here perchance?

[nutty nigel 7,509]

[quote user="Louis Cyphre"]Citizen,

Good post. It is possible to be a supporter and have an independent mind. We are about to witness the opposite with the forthcoming party conference season where the leader will get a standing ovation, well for simply being the leader.

You wont get far with the Doomy line of reasoning as Nutty thinks he was good for the club rather than the liability I thought he was.

[/quote]

 

If you''re going to quote me do it properly. I said he wasn''t over promoted. You said he was. Winning the Championship by 8 points with a plus 40 goal difference suggests I have a point...

 

 

 

[nutty nigel 7,509]

[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"]--- nutty nigel Dr Crafty and Morty are getting very close to pointing out the difference between a supporter and a spectator. I''ve been in deep doodah before for doing the exact same thing. And indeed, it is now possible to watch almost every Norwich game home and away without forking out £1,000s of pounds a year. The viewing public is far more knowledgable about our performances than ever before. Certainly far more than the Radio Norfolk days, or even teletext days for those who did not live in the area. Of course your definition of a supporter is authority and faith based, like a religion. Someone who supports the club will support every decision made at the club. Of course I see a supporter as something more pragmatic, if a manager is being utterly useless, such as Worthy in his latter year and Roeder, I will not support them for the good of the club. If the club only had supporters of your definition, Nigel Worthington and Neil Doncaster would probably still be manager now and Andy Hughes captain.[/quote]

 

The viewing public? Is that another description of spectators Foggy? I would say so. I can''t see anyway the viewing public could be a description of supporters. Or perhaps you believe a spectator who wears a replica shirt becomes a supporter??

 

And far more knowledgeable? I don''t think so. Repeating the views of summarisers and pundits isn''t knowledge. Is it?

 

You surprise me these last few days Foggy. I have had many disagreements with you in the past but you never used to view things with such a narrow agenda. If supporters were of the definition that you measure me by then by that definition they''d still have the club where it was in 1902.

 

 

 

 

[nutty nigel 7,509]

[quote user="YankeeCanary"]

As Ricardo said, it is early days to form opinions for this season. The OP made a good observation, however, supported by Nutty''s input regarding the English games.

 

Morty''s input seemed a little harsh ( as well as incorrect as to how things are evolving ) so I checked the goals scored in the Premiership over the past several seasons ( back to 2004/05 when we were relegated:

2012/03     1063

2011/12     1066

2010/11      1063

2009/10      1053    

2008/09      942

2007/08      1002

2006/05      931

2005/04      944

2003/04      975

 

As you can see, the past four seasons has seen an average number of goals scored as being approximately 11% higher than the average of the five preceding seasons. So, if we like to see more goals scored rather than less recent history would favor that, despite the slower start this season.

The point that Morty made that was valid is that international audiences wants to see more goals not less, although I should only speak to the American audience as that is where my limited knowledge exists. People over here that I know who watch Premiership games often, or even occasionally, and whose formative years were not rooted in the English game, want to see more goals, not less. That being the case, the past four seasons reflect a trend line that is satisfying that need, which perhaps explains why competition for televising rights has intensified.

 

[/quote]

 

I''m still keeping an eye on this and even though it''s still early days the trend is there. This weekend we have had 16 goals in the 9 premier league games. In Germany there were 25 goals in their 8 games.

 

 

[YankeeCanary 0]

[quote user="YankeeCanary"]

 

I sure cocked up the years so I will re-post. I do not need an edit button. I need to read what I have written before I post it.

 

As Ricardo said, it is early days to form opinions for this season. The OP made a good observation, however, supported by Nutty''s input regarding the English games.

 

Morty''s input seemed a little harsh ( as well as incorrect as to how things are evolving ) so I checked the goals scored in the Premiership over the past several seasons ( back to 2004/05 when we were relegated:

2012/03     1063

2011/12     1066

2010/11      1063

2009/10      1053    

2008/09      942

2007/08      1002

2006/07      931

2005/06      944

2004/05      975

 

As you can see, the past four seasons has seen an average number of goals scored as being approximately 11% higher than the average of the five preceding seasons. So, if we like to see more goals scored rather than less recent history would favor that, despite the slower start this season.

The point that Morty made that was valid is that international audiences wants to see more goals not less, although I should only speak to the American audience as that is where my limited knowledge exists. People over here that I know who watch Premiership games often, or even occasionally, and whose formative years were not rooted in the English game, want to see more goals, not less. That being the case, the past four seasons reflect a trend line that is satisfying that need, which perhaps explains why competition for televising rights has intensified.

[/quote]

Just an update on this now that we have reached the halfway point. A total of 509 goals have been scored in the Premiership to date which, pro-rated, means we are about 4% down on the level over the four previous seasons but still approximately 6% above the lower levels of the five seasons prior to that. To Nutty''s point ( although he was looking at goals scored per match ), comparing us to the German Bundesliga, our teams in the Premiership average 1.34 goals per game versus the German teams averaging 1.6 per game, approximately 19% higher.

[GenerationA47 747]

Interesting thread. Not only are teams generally more defensive but there is slightly more footballing ''equality'' this season: the concentration of goals by and goals against a small number of clubs at the top and the bottom isn''t particularly prevalent. 

 

This season there hasn''t been a definite whipping-boy for teams except maybe Fulham (''goals against'' for everyone else currently range from 18 to 32). Likewise, there is no particular all-conquering, free-scoring team except maybe Man City (''goals scored'' stats for the rest of us range from 12 to 44) and I would argue that most of the difference in Man City''s goals total versus the other contenders this year is down to three ''freakish'' scores against the current leader and a couple of mid-table clubs, whose names escape me.

[ricardo 7,345]

Football at the top level is remarkably consistent. The average number of goals per game is virtually the same across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and the Bundesliga and has been the same since the early 1970''s at between 2.5 and 3 goals per game. The actual figure is 2.66 and guess what, at the halfway stage this season it''s dead on course at 2.67.

[YankeeCanary 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]Football at the top level is remarkably consistent. The average number of goals per game is virtually the same across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and the Bundesliga and has been the same since the early 1970''s at between 2.5 and 3 goals per game. The actual figure is 2.66 and guess what, at the halfway stage this season it''s dead on course at 2.67.[/quote]

Ricardo, to say something has been the same since the early 1970''s and then, in the same sentence, indicate a range that varies by 20%, confirms a difference rather than something that is the same. You may very well be correct about the averages since the early 1970''s but the facts as I presented them for the past several season for the Premiership are correct. Also, what Nutty and I alluded to and the fact I presented on the Bundesliga running 19% higher this season than the Premiership is also correct.

[ricardo 7,345]

[quote user="YankeeCanary"][quote user="ricardo"]Football at the top level is remarkably consistent. The average number of goals per game is virtually the same across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and the Bundesliga and has been the same since the early 1970''s at between 2.5 and 3 goals per game. The actual figure is 2.66 and guess what, at the halfway stage this season it''s dead on course at 2.67.[/quote]

Ricardo, to say something has been the same since the early 1970''s and then, in the same sentence, indicate a range that varies by 20%, confirms a difference rather than something that is the same. You may very well be correct about the averages since the early 1970''s but the facts as I presented them for the past several season for the Premiership are correct. Also, what Nutty and I alluded to and the fact I presented on the Bundesliga running 19% higher this season than the Premiership is also correct. [/quote]

The Bundesliga average over the last 15 years is around 2.85 goals per game. The Premier League is about 2.65 so on average you may see an extra fifth of a goal per game or one tenth of a goal per team per game. If the Bundesliga played the same number of games as the Premier League (which they don''t 306 as against 380) you would see  76 extra goals goals per season so say around 2 extra goals per each weekend round of games. Or put another way City would score and concede 1 extra goal every 10th game.Are you trying to tell me that if goals were scored at the Bundisliga rate over19 games at Carrow Road and assuming parity of home and away goals that I would notice that City had scored and conceded an extra 1.9 goals?

[YankeeCanary 0]

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="YankeeCanary"][quote user="ricardo"]Football at the top level is remarkably consistent. The average number of goals per game is virtually the same across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and the Bundesliga and has been the same since the early 1970''s at between 2.5 and 3 goals per game. The actual figure is 2.66 and guess what, at the halfway stage this season it''s dead on course at 2.67.[/quote]

Ricardo, to say something has been the same since the early 1970''s and then, in the same sentence, indicate a range that varies by 20%, confirms a difference rather than something that is the same. You may very well be correct about the averages since the early 1970''s but the facts as I presented them for the past several season for the Premiership are correct. Also, what Nutty and I alluded to and the fact I presented on the Bundesliga running 19% higher this season than the Premiership is also correct. [/quote]

The Bundesliga average over the last 15 years is around 2.85 goals per game. The Premier League is about 2.65 so on average you may see an extra fifth of a goal per game or one tenth of a goal per team per game. If the Bundesliga played the same number of games as the Premier League (which they don''t 306 as against 380) you would see  76 extra goals goals per season so say around 2 extra goals per each weekend round of games. Or put another way City would score and concede 1 extra goal every 10th game.Are you trying to tell me that if goals were scored at the Bundisliga rate over19 games at Carrow Road and assuming parity of home and away goals that I would notice that City had scored and conceded an extra 1.9 goals?[/quote]I''m not trying to tell you anything other than what I think I stated very clearly in my original post and my response to your input. The facts I presented are accurate. My point was that the last four Premiership seasons saw the number of goals scored consistently up from the prior five Premiership seasons, averaging 11% higher. Are you disputing that because, if you''re not, I''m not sure what point you are trying to make by going back to the early 70''s. I was making a point originally that the game has changed in a number of ways, not the least of which these Premiership games are now available to a worldwide television audience, much of which wants to see goals. This worldwide television audience did not exist in the early 70''s. I''m simply observing to see if a trend continues relative to that as it clearly has over the past nine seasons. It''s called demographics, and football ( whether we like it or not ) is a business like any other that will pay attention to such matters. My further fact presented was that this season the Bundesliga is producing goals at a rate that is 19% higher than the Premiership, which is down this season to date  ( but still higher than the five season period I cited between 2204/05 and 2008/09 ), which means that if the Bundesliga played the same number of games as is the case in the Premiership they would be scoring roughly a 100 more goals than the 509 in the Premiership to date for this season. Perhaps the Germans have a thought or two about all that television money. I don''t know, but it''s not beyond the realm of possibility is it?

[ricardo 7,345]

[quote user="YankeeCanary"][quote user="ricardo"][quote user="YankeeCanary"][quote user="ricardo"]Football at the top level is remarkably consistent. The average number of goals per game is virtually the same across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and the Bundesliga and has been the same since the early 1970''s at between 2.5 and 3 goals per game. The actual figure is 2.66 and guess what, at the halfway stage this season it''s dead on course at 2.67.[/quote]

Ricardo, to say something has been the same since the early 1970''s and then, in the same sentence, indicate a range that varies by 20%, confirms a difference rather than something that is the same. You may very well be correct about the averages since the early 1970''s but the facts as I presented them for the past several season for the Premiership are correct. Also, what Nutty and I alluded to and the fact I presented on the Bundesliga running 19% higher this season than the Premiership is also correct. [/quote]

The Bundesliga average over the last 15 years is around 2.85 goals per game. The Premier League is about 2.65 so on average you may see an extra fifth of a goal per game or one tenth of a goal per team per game. If the Bundesliga played the same number of games as the Premier League (which they don''t 306 as against 380) you would see  76 extra goals goals per season so say around 2 extra goals per each weekend round of games. Or put another way City would score and concede 1 extra goal every 10th game.Are you trying to tell me that if goals were scored at the Bundisliga rate over19 games at Carrow Road and assuming parity of home and away goals that I would notice that City had scored and conceded an extra 1.9 goals?[/quote]I''m not trying to tell you anything other than what I think I stated very clearly in my original post and my response to your input. The facts I presented are accurate. My point was that the last four Premiership seasons saw the number of goals scored consistently up from the prior five Premiership seasons, averaging 11% higher. Are you disputing that because, if you''re not, I''m not sure what point you are trying to make by going back to the early 70''s. I was making a point originally that the game has changed in a number of ways, not the least of which these Premiership games are now available to a worldwide television audience, much of which wants to see goals. This worldwide television audience did not exist in the early 70''s. I''m simply observing to see if a trend continues relative to that as it clearly has over the past nine seasons. It''s called demographics, and football ( whether we like it or not ) is a business like any other that will pay attention to such matters. My further fact presented was that this season the Bundesliga is producing goals at a rate that is 19% higher than the Premiership, which is down this season to date  ( but still higher than the five season period I cited between 2204/05 and 2008/09 ), which means that if the Bundesliga played the same number of games as is the case in the Premiership they would be scoring roughly a 100 more goals than the 509 in the Premiership to date for this season. Perhaps the Germans have a thought or two about all that television money. I don''t know, but it''s not beyond the realm of possibility is it?[/quote]The Bundesliga may well be producing goals at rate of 19% more than the EPL at this stage of the season and over the whole history of the Bundesliga the average is indeed slightly higher, just as I indicated. At this halfway stage  the Bundisliga average is at it''s highest ever but all things revert to the mean and over the course of it''s history it is will remain at 2.85. There are seasons when it is in the 2.9''s and seasons when its in the 2.6''s. To simply site this half season''s figures is taking the whole thing out of context.What you seem to be getting excited about is this 19% figure but 19% of 2.66 is still a very small figure (about .5). The average across all seasons however is about 10% or .25 goals per game. So even if we take this season''s elevated figure you might see another half a goal per game. That equates to one quarter of a goal per team per game or to put it plainly City might score and concede another goal every 4th game. It''s hardly a goalfest is it?What is a fact is that in every top league in the world and I site (Bundisliga, EPL, La Liga and Serie A), since 1970 the average goals per game has plateaued at just over two and a half goals per game. No matter where you look across the top leagues of the world the number of goals scored is very uniform. You may very well think the game has changed but you are looking at a narrow window of evidence and as far as goals scored in the top league''s the figures show that it hasn''t. See for yourself-http://soccer-europe.com/Statistics/Goals/GPGEuro.html

[YankeeCanary 0]

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="YankeeCanary"][quote user="ricardo"][quote user="YankeeCanary"][quote user="ricardo"]Football at the top level is remarkably consistent. The average number of goals per game is virtually the same across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and the Bundesliga and has been the same since the early 1970''s at between 2.5 and 3 goals per game. The actual figure is 2.66 and guess what, at the halfway stage this season it''s dead on course at 2.67.[/quote]

Ricardo, to say something has been the same since the early 1970''s and then, in the same sentence, indicate a range that varies by 20%, confirms a difference rather than something that is the same. You may very well be correct about the averages since the early 1970''s but the facts as I presented them for the past several season for the Premiership are correct. Also, what Nutty and I alluded to and the fact I presented on the Bundesliga running 19% higher this season than the Premiership is also correct. [/quote]

The Bundesliga average over the last 15 years is around 2.85 goals per game. The Premier League is about 2.65 so on average you may see an extra fifth of a goal per game or one tenth of a goal per team per game. If the Bundesliga played the same number of games as the Premier League (which they don''t 306 as against 380) you would see  76 extra goals goals per season so say around 2 extra goals per each weekend round of games. Or put another way City would score and concede 1 extra goal every 10th game.Are you trying to tell me that if goals were scored at the Bundisliga rate over19 games at Carrow Road and assuming parity of home and away goals that I would notice that City had scored and conceded an extra 1.9 goals?[/quote]I''m not trying to tell you anything other than what I think I stated very clearly in my original post and my response to your input. The facts I presented are accurate. My point was that the last four Premiership seasons saw the number of goals scored consistently up from the prior five Premiership seasons, averaging 11% higher. Are you disputing that because, if you''re not, I''m not sure what point you are trying to make by going back to the early 70''s. I was making a point originally that the game has changed in a number of ways, not the least of which these Premiership games are now available to a worldwide television audience, much of which wants to see goals. This worldwide television audience did not exist in the early 70''s. I''m simply observing to see if a trend continues relative to that as it clearly has over the past nine seasons. It''s called demographics, and football ( whether we like it or not ) is a business like any other that will pay attention to such matters. My further fact presented was that this season the Bundesliga is producing goals at a rate that is 19% higher than the Premiership, which is down this season to date  ( but still higher than the five season period I cited between 2204/05 and 2008/09 ), which means that if the Bundesliga played the same number of games as is the case in the Premiership they would be scoring roughly a 100 more goals than the 509 in the Premiership to date for this season. Perhaps the Germans have a thought or two about all that television money. I don''t know, but it''s not beyond the realm of possibility is it?[/quote]The Bundesliga may well be producing goals at rate of 19% more than the EPL at this stage of the season and over the whole history of the Bundesliga the average is indeed slightly higher, just as I indicated. At this halfway stage  the Bundisliga average is at it''s highest ever but all things revert to the mean and over the course of it''s history it is will remain at 2.85. There are seasons when it is in the 2.9''s and seasons when its in the 2.6''s. To simply site this half season''s figures is taking the whole thing out of context.What you seem to be getting excited about is this 19% figure but 19% of 2.66 is still a very small figure (about .5). The average across all seasons however is about 10% or .25 goals per game. So even if we take this season''s elevated figure you might see another half a goal per game. That equates to one quarter of a goal per team per game or to put it plainly City might score and concede another goal every 4th game. It''s hardly a goalfest is it?What is a fact is that in every top league in the world and I site (Bundisliga, EPL, La Liga and Serie A), since 1970 the average goals per game has plateaued at just over two and a half goals per game. No matter where you look across the top leagues of the world the number of goals scored is very uniform. You may very well think the game has changed but you are looking at a narrow window of evidence and as far as goals scored in the top league''s the figures show that it hasn''t. See for yourself-http://soccer-europe.com/Statistics/Goals/GPGEuro.html[/quote]

Good Lord, Ricardo, it certainly seems like you did not get the Christmas present you were expecting. If anyone is getting excited or taking things ( the point I originally made ) out of context then surely that has to be YOU. My original post focused entirely and solely on the Premiership for the past nine seasons, pointing out simply and clearly that the four seasons before the current one saw total goals scored as being consistently higher than the five seasons that preceded them, and that this was a good trend particularly for American audiences as they like more goals, not less. Period. The reference I made to the Bundesliga was simply an update regarding the point that Nutty made about that league. My later comment about the Germans and money was tongue in cheekNot once through all your input could you simply acknowledge the accuracy of that. Instead you throw in a study that focused on the Dutch league for a number of seasons with the article stating their Dutch findings were true of other leagues but gave no study information to support that statement save for throwing in a comment about a mere handful of English games. The last statistical site you referred to cut off four seasons ago so obviously does not address the point I was making for the time period I cited. By the way, the only observation I made regarding the nine Premiership seasons I referred to was, quote, "So, if we like to see more goals scored rather than less recent history would favor that." Hardly a controversial statement, is it? It could have gone the other way for the past four seasons but it didn''t. Right?So, take a glass of sherry, park your means and standard deviations and portions of goals and accept the point that was being made for it''s accuracy and validity. Happy New Year!

[ricardo 7,345]

[quote user="YankeeCanary"][quote user="ricardo"][quote user="YankeeCanary"][quote user="ricardo"][quote user="YankeeCanary"][quote user="ricardo"]Football at the top level is remarkably consistent. The average number of goals per game is virtually the same across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and the Bundesliga and has been the same since the early 1970''s at between 2.5 and 3 goals per game. The actual figure is 2.66 and guess what, at the halfway stage this season it''s dead on course at 2.67.[/quote]

Ricardo, to say something has been the same since the early 1970''s and then, in the same sentence, indicate a range that varies by 20%, confirms a difference rather than something that is the same. You may very well be correct about the averages since the early 1970''s but the facts as I presented them for the past several season for the Premiership are correct. Also, what Nutty and I alluded to and the fact I presented on the Bundesliga running 19% higher this season than the Premiership is also correct. [/quote]

The Bundesliga average over the last 15 years is around 2.85 goals per game. The Premier League is about 2.65 so on average you may see an extra fifth of a goal per game or one tenth of a goal per team per game. If the Bundesliga played the same number of games as the Premier League (which they don''t 306 as against 380) you would see  76 extra goals goals per season so say around 2 extra goals per each weekend round of games. Or put another way City would score and concede 1 extra goal every 10th game.Are you trying to tell me that if goals were scored at the Bundisliga rate over19 games at Carrow Road and assuming parity of home and away goals that I would notice that City had scored and conceded an extra 1.9 goals?[/quote]I''m not trying to tell you anything other than what I think I stated very clearly in my original post and my response to your input. The facts I presented are accurate. My point was that the last four Premiership seasons saw the number of goals scored consistently up from the prior five Premiership seasons, averaging 11% higher. Are you disputing that because, if you''re not, I''m not sure what point you are trying to make by going back to the early 70''s. I was making a point originally that the game has changed in a number of ways, not the least of which these Premiership games are now available to a worldwide television audience, much of which wants to see goals. This worldwide television audience did not exist in the early 70''s. I''m simply observing to see if a trend continues relative to that as it clearly has over the past nine seasons. It''s called demographics, and football ( whether we like it or not ) is a business like any other that will pay attention to such matters. My further fact presented was that this season the Bundesliga is producing goals at a rate that is 19% higher than the Premiership, which is down this season to date  ( but still higher than the five season period I cited between 2204/05 and 2008/09 ), which means that if the Bundesliga played the same number of games as is the case in the Premiership they would be scoring roughly a 100 more goals than the 509 in the Premiership to date for this season. Perhaps the Germans have a thought or two about all that television money. I don''t know, but it''s not beyond the realm of possibility is it?[/quote]The Bundesliga may well be producing goals at rate of 19% more than the EPL at this stage of the season and over the whole history of the Bundesliga the average is indeed slightly higher, just as I indicated. At this halfway stage  the Bundisliga average is at it''s highest ever but all things revert to the mean and over the course of it''s history it is will remain at 2.85. There are seasons when it is in the 2.9''s and seasons when its in the 2.6''s. To simply site this half season''s figures is taking the whole thing out of context.What you seem to be getting excited about is this 19% figure but 19% of 2.66 is still a very small figure (about .5). The average across all seasons however is about 10% or .25 goals per game. So even if we take this season''s elevated figure you might see another half a goal per game. That equates to one quarter of a goal per team per game or to put it plainly City might score and concede another goal every 4th game. It''s hardly a goalfest is it?What is a fact is that in every top league in the world and I site (Bundisliga, EPL, La Liga and Serie A), since 1970 the average goals per game has plateaued at just over two and a half goals per game. No matter where you look across the top leagues of the world the number of goals scored is very uniform. You may very well think the game has changed but you are looking at a narrow window of evidence and as far as goals scored in the top league''s the figures show that it hasn''t. See for yourself-http://soccer-europe.com/Statistics/Goals/GPGEuro.html[/quote]

Good Lord, Ricardo, it certainly seems like you did not get the Christmas present you were expecting. If anyone is getting excited or taking things ( the point I originally made ) out of context then surely that has to be YOU. My original post focused entirely and solely on the Premiership for the past nine seasons, pointing out simply and clearly that the four seasons before the current one saw total goals scored as being consistently higher than the five seasons that preceded them, and that this was a good trend particularly for American audiences as they like more goals, not less. Period. The reference I made to the Bundesliga was simply an update regarding the point that Nutty made about that league. My later comment about the Germans and money was tongue in cheekNot once through all your input could you simply acknowledge the accuracy of that. Instead you throw in a study that focused on the Dutch league for a number of seasons with the article stating their Dutch findings were true of other leagues but gave no study information to support that statement save for throwing in a comment about a mere handful of English games. The last statistical site you referred to cut off four seasons ago so obviously does not address the point I was making for the time period I cited. By the way, the only observation I made regarding the nine Premiership seasons I referred to was, quote, "So, if we like to see more goals scored rather than less recent history would favor that." Hardly a controversial statement, is it? It could have gone the other way for the past four seasons but it didn''t. Right?So, take a glass of sherry, park your means and standard deviations and portions of goals and accept the point that was being made for it''s accuracy and validity. Happy New Year!

[/quote]I got exactly the Xmas present I wanted Yankee, ( The Numbers Game, Why everything you know about football is wrong) I recommend it to you. You might then see that the bald statement ("So, if we like to see more goals scored rather than less recent history would favor that." ). Yes the statement is true but not in the way you seemed to be presenting it. It doesn''t represent a trend, it is merely a statistical quirk showing deviation from the mean. Looking at it historically there are several periods of consecutive seasons where average goals per game goes up followed by several seasons where it tilts slightly down. I''m trying to show you that looking at it through a narrow window simply creates the illusion of a trend. There is no trend. What we see is deviation from the mean and the mean is 2.66 goals per game.I quote this statement from the book.Currently, goals in English football are manufactured at the rate of 2.66 for every game played across the divisions and ability levels. Sometimes that goes up a little, sometimes it goes down but overall it is remarkably stable. So you will see 1000 goals, give or take, in the Premier League this season, and the season after that, and the season after that. Football seems to have found it''s equilibrium.And a Happy New Year to all City supporters in Yankee land, including of course those south of the Mason Dixon Line.

[Houston Canary 0]

Guys, feel free to not press quote each time. That''s a lot of unnecessary scrolling past the same information.

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

[quote user="ricardo"]

I got exactly the Xmas present I wanted Yankee, ( The Numbers Game, Why everything you know about football is wrong) I recommend it to you.

[/quote]

I am categorically not intruding into this argument, but I too have started reading The Numbers Game, because I wanted to examine the Myth of the Management Change. Ie, do clubs benefit from a mid-season switch? Possibly something to post on that in a while. But on a different aspect of goals the book provides a classic example of how too great a reliance on pure statistics, without a broad understanding of football, can lead to error.One chapter is devoted to "proving" that Chelsea should have signed Darren Bent (as better value for money) rather than the much more expensive Fernando Torres, because Bent''s goals were more crucial to results, and so were worth more in terms of points.Now leaving aside the footballing fact that Torres is a more complete player than Bent, who doesn''t do much apart from scoring, an intelligent five-year-old could spot the flaw in the authors'' argument. Bent notched more crucial goals in the season being scrutinised (2009-10 ) because he was playing as the star striker for a not very good Sunderland team that ended with a GD of -8. So of course he will score the equaliser in a 1-1, or - even better - the winner in a 1-0 or 2-1 and rack up points for crucialnessWhile Torres, in a much better Liverpool squad, with rival goalscorers (such as Kuyt and Gerrard), and a final GD of +26, will get fewer "crucial" points. A Torres goal late on in a 3-0 counting for less, by the authors'' reckoning, than one of those Bent point-winners. Swap them over and it is almost certain that Torres playing for Sunderland would have got more crucial points than Bent for Liverpool.Plainly the authors are not intelligent five-year-olds.  I hope book''s section on the Management Myth is less intellectualy flawed, but I am not counting on it being so.

[YankeeCanary 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]Currently, goals in English football are manufactured at the rate of 2.66 for every game played across the divisions and ability levels. Sometimes that goes up a little, sometimes it goes down but overall it is remarkably stable. So you will see 1000 goals, give or take, in the Premier League this season, and the season after that, and the season after that. Football seems to have found it''s equilibrium.And a Happy New Year to all City supporters in Yankee land, including of course those south of the Mason Dixon Line.

[/quote]

So, we are agreed then. We won''t see 930 or 940.  [;)] [:D]I believe we will see another season with it ending up close to the highs of the past four seasons ( which will then make it five seasons ) rather than the lower numbers of the four seasons I choose to use as  a baseline in the modern era.

[ricardo 7,345]

[quote user="YankeeCanary"][quote user="ricardo"]Currently, goals in English football are manufactured at the rate of 2.66 for every game played across the divisions and ability levels. Sometimes that goes up a little, sometimes it goes down but overall it is remarkably stable. So you will see 1000 goals, give or take, in the Premier League this season, and the season after that, and the season after that. Football seems to have found it''s equilibrium.And a Happy New Year to all City supporters in Yankee land, including of course those south of the Mason Dixon Line.

[/quote]

So, we are agreed then. We won''t see 930 or 940.  [;)] [:D]I believe we will see another season with it ending up close to the highs of the past four seasons ( which will then make it five seasons ) rather than the lower numbers of the four seasons I choose to use as  a baseline in the modern era. [/quote]Where do you want to draw a line on the Modern Era?[:D]Seriously though that book has been an eye opener for me. We are all guilty of thinking that different leagues play different types of football but it seems that whatever you measure, be it passes, long and short, shots, shots on target, free kicks, crosses from open play, headed goals etc etc. There is hardly a fag paper between the leagues. The game is virtually same everywhere at the elite level.In most passes per game I would have said the Saniards bit it isn''t its Serie A.with 449 per game, the PREM is only 10 behind and it''s the Germans with the lowest at 425.And when it comes to long passes surely it''s the English game? Wrong again it''s the Germans with 59 per game. The Prem 57, La Liga 56, Serie A 54.We all like to think there is a difference in style between the leagues. I certainly thought there is but whatever you measure it seems like we all play the same game Certainly there is a measurable style difference between say Stoke and Swansea but taken as an entire league it appears to an illusion.I recommend the book, I think it would surprise you.

[YankeeCanary 0]

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="YankeeCanary"][quote user="ricardo"]Currently, goals in English football are manufactured at the rate of 2.66 for every game played across the divisions and ability levels. Sometimes that goes up a little, sometimes it goes down but overall it is remarkably stable. So you will see 1000 goals, give or take, in the Premier League this season, and the season after that, and the season after that. Football seems to have found it''s equilibrium.And a Happy New Year to all City supporters in Yankee land, including of course those south of the Mason Dixon Line.

[/quote]

So, we are agreed then. We won''t see 930 or 940.  [;)] [:D]I believe we will see another season with it ending up close to the highs of the past four seasons ( which will then make it five seasons ) rather than the lower numbers of the four seasons I choose to use as  a baseline in the modern era. [/quote]Where do you want to draw a line on the Modern Era?[:D]Seriously though that book has been an eye opener for me. We are all guilty of thinking that different leagues play different types of football but it seems that whatever you measure, be it passes, long and short, shots, shots on target, free kicks, crosses from open play, headed goals etc etc. There is hardly a fag paper between the leagues. The game is virtually same everywhere at the elite level.In most passes per game I would have said the Saniards bit it isn''t its Serie A.with 449 per game, the PREM is only 10 behind and it''s the Germans with the lowest at 425.And when it comes to long passes surely it''s the English game? Wrong again it''s the Germans with 59 per game. The Prem 57, La Liga 56, Serie A 54.We all like to think there is a difference in style between the leagues. I certainly thought there is but whatever you measure it seems like we all play the same game Certainly there is a measurable style difference between say Stoke and Swansea but taken as an entire league it appears to an illusion.I recommend the book, I think it would surprise you.[/quote]

I will get the book before I head off to sit in the Florida sunshine and

digest to my heart''s content. I am still thinking about the comment

Purple made on the book a little earlier, regarding The Myth Of The

Management change in mid-season. I think he said he was going to post

something later but I would like to see comments from both of you,

Ricardo, in terms of what the book imparts and whether or not you agree

with it.

[ricardo 7,345]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="ricardo"]

I got exactly the Xmas present I wanted Yankee, ( The Numbers Game, Why everything you know about football is wrong) I recommend it to you.

[/quote]

I am categorically not intruding into this argument, but I too have started reading The Numbers Game, because I wanted to examine the Myth of the Management Change. Ie, do clubs benefit from a mid-season switch? Possibly something to post on that in a while. But on a different aspect of goals the book provides a classic example of how too great a reliance on pure statistics, without a broad understanding of football, can lead to error.One chapter is devoted to "proving" that Chelsea should have signed Darren Bent (as better value for money) rather than the much more expensive Fernando Torres, because Bent''s goals were more crucial to results, and so were worth more in terms of points.Now leaving aside the footballing fact that Torres is a more complete player than Bent, who doesn''t do much apart from scoring, an intelligent five-year-old could spot the flaw in the authors'' argument. Bent notched more crucial goals in the season being scrutinised (2009-10 ) because he was playing as the star striker for a not very good Sunderland team that ended with a GD of -8. So of course he will score the equaliser in a 1-1, or - even better - the winner in a 1-0 or 2-1 and rack up points for crucialnessWhile Torres, in a much better Liverpool squad, with rival goalscorers (such as Kuyt and Gerrard), and a final GD of +26, will get fewer "crucial" points. A Torres goal late on in a 3-0 counting for less, by the authors'' reckoning, than one of those Bent point-winners. Swap them over and it is almost certain that Torres playing for Sunderland would have got more crucial points than Bent for Liverpool.Plainly the authors are not intelligent five-year-olds.  I hope book''s section on the Management Myth is less intellectualy flawed, but I am not counting on it being so.

[/quote]Yes I thought that premise was a bit thin but also perhaps a bit tongue in cheek. I think they were just trying to emphasize the idea that not all goals are equally valuable. I also liked the idea that goals that do not happen have a greater vale than goals that do ( the 0>1 rule). We tend not to think so much about the defensive side of the game but quite plainly keeping a clean sheet can never be worth less than a point. Their research seems to confirm that keeping a clean sheet has actually the same points value as scoring two goals.The quote I  liked was " So football is a schizophrenic game: it''s as much about not losing as it is about winning but pretends otherwise". Some of the critics on this forum would do well to give that some thought.

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

[quote user="YankeeCanary"]

I will get the book before I head off to sit in the Florida sunshine and

digest to my heart''s content. I am still thinking about the comment

Purple made on the book a little earlier, regarding The Myth Of The

Management change in mid-season. I think he said he was going to post

something later but I would like to see comments from both of you,

Ricardo, in terms of what the book imparts and whether or not you agree

with it.[/quote]Yankee, by later I mean in a week or so. Not a subject to be rushed.

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

[quote user="ricardo"]Yes I thought that premise was a bit thin but also perhaps a bit tongue in cheek. I think they were just trying to emphasize the idea that not all goals are equally valuable. I also liked the idea that goals that do not happen have a greater vale than goals that do ( the 0>1 rule). We tend not to think so much about the defensive side of the game but quite plainly keeping a clean sheet can never be worth less than a point. Their research seems to confirm that keeping a clean sheet has actually the same points value as scoring two goals.The quote I  liked was " So football is a schizophrenic game: it''s as much about not losing as it is about winning but pretends otherwise". Some of the critics on this forum would do well to give that some thought.[/quote]I don''t think they do tongue-in-cheek, ricardo! If they had meant it at all that way then they would have said so at the end. But there is nothing in that chapter to indicate they were being anything but entirely serious about Bent being better the better signing for Chelsea than Torres. Of course some goals are more vital than others, but to fail to take into account the vastly different circumstances of Bent at Sunderland and Torres at Liverpool showed a jaw-dropping lack of understanding of the real football world. Statistics came only take you so far, and statistics without context (as in that example) can be plain wrong.

[ricardo 7,345]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="ricardo"]Yes I thought that premise was a bit thin but also perhaps a bit tongue in cheek. I think they were just trying to emphasize the idea that not all goals are equally valuable. I also liked the idea that goals that do not happen have a greater vale than goals that do ( the 0>1 rule). We tend not to think so much about the defensive side of the game but quite plainly keeping a clean sheet can never be worth less than a point. Their research seems to confirm that keeping a clean sheet has actually the same points value as scoring two goals.The quote I  liked was " So football is a schizophrenic game: it''s as much about not losing as it is about winning but pretends otherwise". Some of the critics on this forum would do well to give that some thought.[/quote]I don''t think they do tongue-in-cheek, ricardo! If they had meant it at all that way then they would have said so at the end. But there is nothing in that chapter to indicate they were being anything but entirely serious about Bent being better the better signing for Chelsea than Torres. Of course some goals are more vital than others, but to fail to take into account the vastly different circumstances of Bent at Sunderland and Torres at Liverpool showed a jaw-dropping lack of understanding of the real football world. Statistics came only take you so far, and statistics without context (as in that example) can be plain wrong.[/quote]Well wrong or not, it''s certainly debatable. I guess we''d have to go to another Universe were they signed Bent instead of Torres to know for sure.In any event I found that the book has certainly challenged my preconceptions about the game.  I found the chapter about the "Deflation of the long ball" very thought provoking and how Stoke maximise there possession through set pieces and minimize the oppositions possession by keeping the ball off the park. I''d never really considered it in that light before.