canaryfairy 0 Posted July 30, 2013 I know these odds mean almost nothing but I''ve been checking them as we''ve been making more and more signings throughout the summer to see if the odds have shifted.We started the transfer window being joint 3rd favourites with Cardiff. I was a little surprised that our signings were having no effect at all on our odds to be relegated. However after signing Fer we did move to 4th, and now with Hoops coming in we are 5th favourite. Being a Norwich fan I am used to the default outside opinion that we are a borderline Championship/Premier League club and we may never shake that label off. However this season I think it could be the first in a while where the 3 promoted teams (Hull, Palace and Cardiff) go straight back down. I think the position of clubs above that is very hard to predict. What do you think?http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted July 30, 2013 if no one is placing bets then the odds won''t changethey are a measure of that not a barometer of football fans/pundts etc views on who is likely to be relegated Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Indy 3,232 Posted July 30, 2013 It is laughable that teams like Villa who have struggled are out at 8/1 and Everton who appointed a relegated manager and not signed anyone of note are a great bet at this point at 33/1. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Waveney Canary 0 Posted July 30, 2013 No point in getting bitter just get the best odds you can on us staying up and lump your shirt on it and enjoy yourself as you collect your winnings at the end of the season, Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Making Plans 929 Posted July 30, 2013 Initial betting odds are based on history & that means how we performed last season. The fact we finished as high as 11th was somewhat flattering as for several weeks before that we had looked like potential relegation candidates. We were quite lucky that for the last 2 games our opponents had nothing to play for.Consequently didn''t they turn up, we got out of jail and that wouldn''t have gone unnoticed by bookmakers or punters.Even though we have signed some new players that look to have considerable potential, until they start to perform & the results are positive, it is too early for bookmakers to start making assumptions that we won''t be in a similar position again this season.If they were offering a price now of around 10-1 then doubtless those odds would attract a lot of money & quickly come tumbling down.Wait until 10 games have been played and then you''ll see more accurate odds for this season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ellis206 0 Posted July 30, 2013 The same West Brom that didn''t turn up vs United the week after? Some people just can''t give us any deserved credit, our position wasn''t flattering at all, its where we deserved to finish!!!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted July 30, 2013 "We were quite lucky that for the last 2 games our opponents had nothing to play for."or we would have been relegated I suppose Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Making Plans 929 Posted July 30, 2013 The current relegation odds are not about what I think, or what anybody else on here thinks, they are about how our chances for this season are perceived by bookmakers. Whether you agree or disagree with them is of no consequence as the bookmakers will have taken note of last season and based their odds on what they saw.At face value, 11th position looks great but deep down we all know that relegation was, for several weeks, a lot closer than our finishing position suggests.I can assure you that no one was more delighted than me that we survived so it''s not about me not giving us "derserved credit" and it''s not about us finishing "where we derserved to finish". Bookmakers don''t run their businesses on sentiment - they only deal with reality.The OP asked why are we 3rd, 4th or 5th favourites for relegation and what I''ve given is the answer. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted July 30, 2013 "they are about how our chances for this season are perceived by bookmakers""Bookmakers don''t run their businesses on sentiment - they only deal with reality."err yes, the reality of the bets placedthat''s why they are called bookmakers Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Making Plans 929 Posted July 30, 2013 [quote user="City1st"]err yes, the reality of the bets placed[/quote]Err yes true but, you can''t have a bet until the bookmakers have formed a book and that opening book is purely their own opinion of what they think is likely to happen. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted July 30, 2013 and, as you claim, what is likely to continue to happen irrespective of bets, as with "it is too early for bookmakers to start making assumptions that we won''t be in a similar position again this season."however once the book has been made it is up to bets placedthe book was made some while ago yet you are still claiming that it will be down to the thoughts (sentiment) of the bookmakers Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Making Plans 929 Posted July 30, 2013 however once the book has been made it is up to bets placedYes of course. So the fact that we are, depending on which bookmaker you look at, either 4th or 5th favourites for relegation, with odds of around of around 11/4 - 5/2, means that Joe Public still thinks there are only 3 or 4 teams more likely to get relegated than us.And the reason they think that is because of last season.This then demonstrates that there are not too many punters around, who thus far, despite all our new signings, disagree with the orignal odds laid by the bookmakers in their opening books.If general betting public opinion was that we were going to finish higher than 16th ot 17th then the odds would reflect that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Webbo118 0 Posted July 30, 2013 [quote user="Making Plans"]however once the book has been made it is up to bets placedYes of course. So the fact that we are, depending on which bookmaker you look at, either 4th or 5th favourites for relegation, with odds of around of around 11/4 - 5/2, means that Joe Public still thinks there are only 3 or 4 teams more likely to get relegated than us.And the reason they think that is because of last season.This then demonstrates that there are not too many punters around, who thus far, despite all our new signings, disagree with the orignal odds laid by the bookmakers in their opening books.If general betting public opinion was that we were going to finish higher than 16th ot 17th then the odds would reflect that.[/quote]The reality is that the vast majority of punters haven''t got a clue. They get their "knowledge" from watching MOTD and SS and you know what they think of us. As always, I will continue to lay Norwich for relegation with every spare penny I have and then spend the summer in the sun counting the winnings. Happy days. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted July 30, 2013 "means that Joe Public still thinks there are only 3 or 4 teams more likely to get relegated than us."exactlyrather than the bookies are doing this, they are merely reflecting what Joe Public thinks ie bets onthe same clueless bunch of simpletons as mentioned above by W18those who stuffed loads of money on Redknapp to be the next manager at the workhouse down the A140, Ruddy going to Chelsea, Lambert to Burnley - they are only in existence through the mug punters stupidity NOT through any grasp of reality or lack of sentimenthowever the one good bit about it all is as above " continue to lay Norwich for relegation with every spare penny I have"I suggest you do the same, my season ticket and a pint and a half is paid for this season by the same stupidity Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Houston Canary 0 Posted July 30, 2013 Actually the opening lines are based not on where bookies think teams will finish but on where they think the money will be bet that gives them the biggest profit at lowest risk.Norwich is usually a favorite for the drop within the betting community so even if the bookies doubt we''ll get relegated they set the lines to indicate we likely will. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites