Relegation Forcasts what a load of ....

[Ivan Easter 0]

It always amazes me when you get these so called experts tipping teams for relegation before they have played? I have just watched the interview on Sky Sports with Jamie Redknapp who predicts us to struggle and poss. relegation, I think this is because we got Gary Hooper and his father didn''t. Until the season starts no one can predict anything. I think and hope that this year we will give a very good account of ourselves. Who knows we could even be playing Bayern Munich again next year?? 3 points against Everton and we are on our way!!

[crabbycanary 2]

Don''t EVER listen to what Jamie Redknapp says. It''s one of life''s unwritten rules. 

[Ivan Easter 0]

ha! ha! ha!

[Bethnal Yellow and Green 1,557]

Pundits are paid to make predictions and projections - would be a rather useless pundit if he just said ''I can''t say anything until after the first 10 games of the season...''

[BroadstairsR 2,137]

[quote user="Bethnal Yellow and Green"]Pundits are paid to make predictions and projections - would be a rather useless pundit if he just said ''I can''t say anything until after the first 10 games of the season...''[/quote]

 

Yes, but they are required to display a bit of insight as well.

 

I''m betting that this pre-season will be no different and that we will again figure prominently in all the bottom three forecasts of all the hacks and pundits.

 

It annoys, but there is some satisfaction in proving them wrong.

[The ghost of Michael Theoklitos 0]

I never understand why people get wound up about the opinions of pundits. They think we''re going to struggle? Fine. They said that last year too. And the year before. Under the radar is more than OK with me. Pundits are paid to give an opinion. The fact that you don''t agree with that opinion shouldn''t matter one iota to anyone.

[paul moy 235]

Why not just respect it as his opinion. We may struggle, we may not, but nobody knows until the season starts.

[Indy 3,283]

Is that not what they are paid to do, predict? And to be fair we are not the best team on paper and by far not the worste team. It will be tight and as long as we stay up, it''s a result for future development and building the foundations for a long stay in the top flight.

 

There is no getting away from the fact that we are a far stronger team than last seaosn and we will be OK.

[Jim Smith 2,314]

we may well struggle. We feel we have made good signings and that may well prove to be the case but we have also made our signings earlier and others are now catching up so by the end of the transfer window I would expect all of the "mid to lower" end of the table clubs to have spent a fair bit of cash.

For example its quite possible that WBA will have Defoe and Anelka up front next season. That may or may not turn out to be a good front 2 for them but on paper at least its as strong if not stronger than Hooper and RVW.

I think we will do ok next season but fully expect many pundits to continue to predict we will struggle. Indeed several of them will probably do so without even knowing who we''ve signed - they just reel off the same names each season.

[CambridgeCanary 0]

Agreed Bethnal.

 

But let us also remember that there is stacks of research across many fields including economics, politics, financial markets and sport that shows that pundits and experts rarely achieve prediction results significantly above random and especially above the ordinary punter.   we are all much closer to guessing than we acknowledge.

 

The big objection to banker''s bonuses is that they reward lucky guesses rather than skill or expertise.   Following a racing tipster may achieve no better outcome than sticking a pin in the race card.

 

In this specfic instance, all of us have marginally less chance of being right than Redknapp and some of us will do better than him.  It is a nonsense and of course, pundits only boast about when they get it right.   They are inflating their own importance but actually have little.

 

I remind people of this every time Savage or Lawrenson upset them with their predictions but it seems we would rather believe in pundits so that we can feel secure when they affirm our prejudices than treat them as the overrated and overblown semi charlatans that they are.

 

Envoi.

 

I do not claim experts have no useful role.  They do but it is in analysis of past performance and not in prediction.

[smooth 114]

We had an awful second part to the season, with no plan b and really looked pretty dire. Teams that survive one season playing for 1-0 traditionally struggle the next as to change the philosophy is hard, however the additions of fer, Redmond, rvw and hooper already can help us.

But I am sure we will be seen as a club who could be in trouble because of that and because of our awful run in.

Either way I think there will be other clubs in more trouble and hopefully if we have injuries we will have a plan b etc.

[crabbycanary 2]

So we lose Grant Holt, and replace with RVW and our new GH. We add Redmond, Fer and Olsson, and lose who? We finished 11th last season. Other teams, who finished below us, haven''t improved their squads, like we have,and yet he still thinks we may go down.

Those reasons alone, are my defence in not listening to Redknapp. I''ll stand by them thank you.

[Morisons Prozac 0]

Can''t agree there Jim. I''d take RVW and Hooper over Defoe and Anella every day of the week. Anelka''s way too old to make any impact and Defoe''s game is based around his pace which he is starting to lose with his age. It''s not even close IMO and I''m being as impartial as I can.

[Fiery Zac 1,066]

Agreed crabby. If these so called experts are going to make predictions they need to base it on more than the previous seasons run in.

We may well struggle but surely a balanced judgement would look at our signings, the lack of others, the weaker squads of the promoted sides compared to last year, the numerous changes in management in the PL and the fixtures showing some good chances of getting a run together, as an indication that we''ll do as well, if not better than last year.

[chicken 0]

If don''t agree that Defoe''s game is all about pace. He is capable of striking a decent shot from distance, it''s his movement and his ability to turn sharply that is key to his game. You get the ball into his feet in and around the box and he will at the very least get you a shot on target.

I''d rate him above Hooper and RVW at this time purely because we don''t know yet what they can produce at this level. Defoe''s finishing is premiership class at the very least.

As for relegation - the three teams that came up must be the favourites: Cardiff, Hull and Palace - with the last two being especially favourites.

After that you then have to have a look at some of the other teams that struggled last season as others have said.

Possible strugglers - Stoke and Sunderland.

Then you have a good mix of ''the others'' of which I would say we have strengthened the most over the summer. WBA needed that striker, they have brought in Anelka but whether he still has it, and whether he will be a positive influence in the dressing room will be another thing. They are a solid and well organised side though.

Very level pegging when it comes to us and some of the other teams.

[crabbycanary 2]

Chicken - you haven''t mentioned Villa (who I think we will finish above, again) and Fulham, who haven''t strengthened like we have (Taraabt? a good player on his day, trouble is that there are 38 days he has to be good for). Newcastle? The French revolution may improve them this season, but finish above us? I''m not convinced.

WBA are solid, like you say, but I would say that they have weakened slightly, by ''losing'' Lukaku and getting Anelka.

Plenty there, me thinks, to make us worry how high we will finish and not how low can we go.

 

[ZLF 271]

Its just an opinion - so cant worry about it too much and we were predicted to get relegated the last two seasons,  if that means other clubs under estimate us great.

 

As others have said our form and performances from Jan was pretty diabolical and no one is certain about how quickly the new signings will adjust.

 

I am confident we will be fine - but I can see why "outsiders" may form a different view

[ReadingCanary 0]

Suprises me this one.Redknapp was full of praise for us during the West Brom game (pretty sure it was him commentating)Seems he just plucked us out of the air for this article... maybe something to do with hooper and his old fella.

[Redders Right Foot 22]

JR got slaughtered in the comments section for his prediction on us.

http://www1.skysports.com/football/news/18932/8857360/

only one of the comments don''t mention us.

[hertfordyellow 460]

[quote user="ReadingCanary"]Suprises me this one.Redknapp was full of praise for us during the West Brom game (pretty sure it was him commentating)Seems he just plucked us out of the air for this article... maybe something to do with Hooper and his old fella.[/quote]I don''t mind pundits predicting us to struggle, as many have said it is just an opinion. It''s the plucking names out of the air that is slightly annoying. Savage for example just says we will struggle but never says why he thinks this which makes me think he hasn''t thought about it thoroughly (shocking I know). Pundits who give out opinions then don''t justify why are not doing their job. Neville and Souness (only pundits I really listen to if i''m honest) follow up a statement with "what I mean by that is....".

[paul moy 235]

I would have preferred some logical reasoning rather than a glib  ''Norwich will have a difficult season''....   ''Norwich might have a difficult season'' would have been more reasonable.  We''ll be safe though, I''m sure... [;)]

[Juggy 0]

[quote user="Morisons Prozac"] Anelka''s way too old to make any impact [/quote]

Scored a hat-trick tonight, takes him up to 6 goals in pre-season.

[Branston Pickle 3,632]

So, Anelka scores against the giants that are Cork, big wow - if only we''d had such those hard games, rather than playing CL sides....

[ReadingCanary 0]

Jamie Redknapp''s Red Hot TipsHull, Palace and Norwich to be relegated 14/1Swansea top 6 Finish 20/1"Red Hot Tips" with those kind of odds..... Sky Bet getting free money.

[Highland Canary 76]

I''m sure Hull and Palace must be favourite to go down; Stoke, Sunderland, Cardiff and us in the mix for the other spot. Swansea will be on the cusp of a sixth place finish.

[Tangible Fixed Assets anyone? 0]

[quote user="Highland Canary"]I''m sure Hull and Palace must be favourite to go down; Stoke, Sunderland, Cardiff and us in the mix for the other spot. Swansea will be on the cusp of a sixth place finish.[/quote]

I agree about Hull and Palace finishing in the bottom two places.

As for the third relegation place, I think you can add Fulham and West Ham United to your group.

[nutty nigel 7,506]

And Villa!!

[Warren Hill 0]

Surprising to see Highland having us in the relegation mix before a ball is kicked.....he''s gutted we aren''t called Zorwich so we can be bottom all through the close season...

And Nutty, Villa will finish top 6 this year. They''ve got Lambert.

[PurpleCanary 5,553]

The Guardian (widely respected here, I know) are doing their assessment of our chances next week (Tuesday I think) but I can state now that they will not predict relegation for us this season.

[YankeeCanary 0]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"]The Guardian (widely respected here, I know) are doing their assessment of our chances next week (Tuesday I think) but I can state now that they will not predict relegation for us this season.[/quote]

 

Purple, just between us ( [;)] ), were you Cameldonum in "a prior life?"