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Phil McNulty predictions on the BBC

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Yet another pundit tipping us for a poor season, which I don''t have a major issue with.

What really annoys me is his write up on us says "At first glance he looks to have bought very well so there is real scope for potential improvement" but then tips us to finish 5 places lower than we did last season.

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When squads change so much over a long window the pundits have very little to go on, all predictions are worthless.

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Ha.

I noticed that too. If I''m honest I find it quite frustrating that pundits write us off so easily. It almost feels like they haven''t even bothered to give us any thought. However, having said that, I think it''s actually a good thing overall as there will be less pressure on the team and may even spur them on to prove people wrong.

At least Gary Neville tipped us to do well. It seems he''s generally very well respected among fans as a top pundit.

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Vanwink - agreed that squads have changed and predictions are worth jack.

It is the fact that he cannot give a reason why we are going to be worse off than last year when he clearly states we have improved the squad. Most of the teams who finished below us have not strengthened as much as we have IMO

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I think Norwich will finish lower than 11th season, but it does annoy when a pundit gives a positive write up and doesn''t explain a lower position. Many have very fine word limits, especially this BBC one - but such large drop is worth explaining.

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I think these predictions are important and can be damaging. We''re trying to convince potential top players to join us based on the premise that we''re an ambitious and established Premiership team and this sort of thoughtless drivel undermines our efforts to do that.

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I agree that Gary Neville is one of the most intelligent pundits out there so its nice to see him tipping us as dark horses.

 

For McNutly''s prediction, the problem is that the middle of the prem has a lot of teams that aren''t far apart in squad strength.  Fulham, WBA, Villa, Stoke, us, Soton, West Ham, Swansea, Newcastle, Sunderland etc.  So you end up with perversities like him talking about us improving through our signings and then putting us towards the bottom of the mid-table pack so predicting us to do significantly worse.

 

I know it''s annoying but the last couple of years people like him were predicting we''d be relegated, so 16th is progress of a sort.  Anyway it''s better if we can stay under the radar a bit.

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All you have to do is take the Deloittes finance report wage league table and it will be 70 pc to 80pc correct. 16th is indeed NCFC''s par position. The BBC league table just reflects the most likely statistical probabilities. Humans have a poor grasp of reality as they use (yellow/green) perception filters to handle the complexity of the world around us which distorts the  reality. The blame/denial responses we consistently see on this message board are classic examples of this poor human grasp of probabilities and reality.

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Read the football365 season preview, funny and makes good reading for city fans. Although, one of the pundits seems to have an issue with Russel Martin-no idea what that''s about.

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T,A good post, but isnt the Deloitte''s report always in arrears. We have probably increased our wage base relative to others above us since last year.

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[quote user="T"]

All you have to do is take the Deloittes finance report wage league table and it will be 70 pc to 80pc correct. 16th is indeed NCFC''s par position. The BBC league table just reflects the most likely statistical probabilities. Humans have a poor grasp of reality as they use (yellow/green) perception filters to handle the complexity of the world around us which distorts the  reality. The blame/denial responses we consistently see on this message board are classic examples of this poor human grasp of probabilities and reality.

[/quote]

 

A prediction on this basis would have had us being relegated last year and the year before.

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[quote user="super canary"]Read the football365 season preview, funny and makes good reading for city fans. Although, one of the pundits seems to have an issue with Russel Martin-no idea what that''s about.[/quote]Where is this preview please buddy? Can''t seem to find it on their website.

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One of the best previews I''ve read so far is in the FourFourTwo magazine. Seems just about spot on with everything they say, and very well informed it seems. They have predicted a 15th place finish for us.

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Indeed the deloittes league table is for the previous season but the there is a very strong correlation between the relative wage position from one season to the next. Clearly it needs to be adjusted for changes in circumstances such as for the promoted clubs and in the case of Norwich that we have now paid off our debts which will increase our wage position from about to 19th to 16th. As I said it is not 100% accurate it is only 70 to 80 pc accurate and plus or minus 2 places is within the normal range on average. It is though the biggest single predictor of league position. Obviously, it is even more accurate on a longer term average basis. I.e longer term we will on average end up lower mid table and it will still be in the normal typical performance range that we get relegated one season. One-off outlyers are just part of the normal random statistical pattern and do nothing to change the facts. If it were 100% correlated then indeed we would have been relegated. It just highlights what a fantastic job the club including lambert and hughton have done to finish so high as they have outperformed the normal performace range. If you are not convinced then think about how many and which clubs have won the premier league.

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[quote user="T"]

Indeed the deloittes league table is for the previous season but the there is a very strong correlation between the relative wage position from one season to the next. Clearly it needs to be adjusted for changes in circumstances such as for the promoted clubs and in the case of Norwich that we have now paid off our debts which will increase our wage position from about to 19th to 16th. As I said it is not 100% accurate it is only 70 to 80 pc accurate and plus or minus 2 places is within the normal range on average. It is though the biggest single predictor of league position. Obviously, it is even more accurate on a longer term average basis. I.e longer term we will on average end up lower mid table and it will still be in the normal typical performance range that we get relegated one season. One-off outlyers are just part of the normal random statistical pattern and do nothing to change the facts. If it were 100% correlated then indeed we would have been relegated. It just highlights what a fantastic job the club including lambert and hughton have done to finish so high as they have outperformed the normal performace range. If you are not convinced then think about how many and which clubs have won the premier league.

[/quote]

 

I don''t disagree about the general usefulness of the wages position, providing it is not regarded as an iron rule. But in terms of assessing the season that starts tomorrow the Deloitte''s report is a full two years out of date, both in terms of what has happened at a particular club with wages and the player wage to turnover ratio, and in tems of which clubs are now in the Premier League. It is little help in assessing, for example, where we will finish relative to Hull, Palace or Cardiff.

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Indeed Purple it is only a 70 to 80 pc iron rule and promoted clubs are one of the reasons for that as they may will underperform their league wage position as a result of more changes in personel so a higher risk of transfer failures and becasue they hae not had the benefit of a few seasons of TV money to spend on transfers to improve their sqaud over a number of seasons. Hence I expect average wage and transfer expediture over the average player turnover preiod of say the last 3 years would be a better predictor but still not a perfect predictor  becasue of all the other factors of chance. The recent BBC article from Ed Smith has a good discussion of a similar topic where he notes becasue of the size of the goals/scoring possibilites there is a greater element of chance in football than some other sports. Hence you get more unpredictable results for a match but over a season this tends to even out and obviously over a number of seasons then the wage predictor is stronger as the chance elements tend to even out more. Its logical as the best players will typically on average have the highest wages.

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His prediction of 16th wouldn''t be terrible. it has been very cramped in that part of the table these last few years. The win at Man City meant we finished 11th rather than level on points with 16th.

Also he predicts the three teams that were promoted to be relegated. Pretty dismal journalism.

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Well said foghorn.

The end of the season showed how tight last season was.

I think this season it will be tight again, I think we can stay up but if that run in haunts us and injuries to key new additions from this summer will leave us with the team we had last season.

The key is fitness of rvw, hooper and fer

Olsson and garrido gives us very capable players, but not game winners. Redmond maybe being that headline writer but at a young age we cannot put too much on him.

That is why I still think we need some other attacking option and defender.

We can build on positions all the time with each window but I hope a few players can step up from last teams squad. I can imagine snoddy will be the threat he was , can pilky, Howson raise their games more consistently? Can butterfield and hoolahan maybe have that breakout season?

Exciting but I would feel much more at ease with another attacker/ striker and a centre half,

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[quote user="The Frisbee Hyena"][quote user="super canary"]Read the football365 season preview, funny and makes good reading for city fans. Although, one of the pundits seems to have an issue with Russel Martin-no idea what that''s about.[/quote]Where is this preview please buddy? Can''t seem to find it on their website. [/quote]

its called predictions365-in the 4 boxes bit, might have to scroll to the next set of boxes.

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With regard to predictions there is only really one pundit who I have read and have reasonably agreed with what he has written. Believe it or not it is Robbie Savage, and before I get slated for this, he unlike the pointless Jamie Redknapps of this world has changed his opinion in light of the transfer activity of us. Savage was writing us off but now thinks we will be comfortably safe.

The thing we need this year is consistency, very obvious but a patch of form like Jan-March will leave us struggling again. I expect a more positive approach this season after a stronger start. A lot of the negative tactics were needed because we had such an awful start

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