Your realistic expectations for the season.......

[T 190]

You misunderstand at no point did I say there is a 100% correlation. I only said there is a 70 to 80 percent and on average plus on minus two places of the predicted is within the normal average range. There is a normal statistical probability disttibution curve between wages and league points. It is perfectly within the statistitical probabilites that QPR underperform and Norwich outperform but I have not looked at two clubs but the whole league. 16th is our most likely position with a 70 percent probability we will finish within a couple of places better or worse than this. That does not for one moment mean that we can not finish higher or lower than that just that the probabilities are lower. Norwich and Swansea have done a fantatsic job as they have outperformed their normal probability range while QPR ahve signifigantly underperformed but on average most of the clubs most of the time fall in the normal probability range predicted by wages. Hence so few clubs have won the premier league. Does not mean out lyers do not occur just that they have a lower probability.

[Iwans Big Toe 312]

[quote user="T"]You misunderstand at no point did I say there is a 100% correlation. I only said there is a 70 to 80 percent and on average plus on minus two places of the predicted is within the normal average range. There is a normal statistical probability disttibution curve between wages and league points. It is perfectly within the statistitical probabilites that QPR underperform and Norwich outperform but I have not looked at two clubs but the whole league. 16th is our most likely position with a 70 percent probability we will finish within a couple of places better or worse than this. That does not for one moment mean that we can not finish higher or lower than that just that the probabilities are lower. Norwich and Swansea have done a fantatsic job as they have outperformed their normal probability range while QPR ahve signifigantly underperformed but on average most of the clubs most of the time fall in the normal probability range predicted by wages. Hence so few clubs have won the premier league. Does not mean out lyers do not occur just that they have a lower probability.[/quote]Congratulations T, your constant referencing of statistics you have managed to turned this thread into the most boring currently going. No mean feat considering the Quagliarella thread is now upto 62 pages. Your prize is in the post. [:D]

[Indy 3,286]

We have improved on our squad as have other around us, we have not lost any key player, nor have most around us, the three teams who came up have been active but their quality will be questionable.

 

Acceptable qould be staying up, expecting anything between 10th to 15th.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Also I''m interested in the theory that football fans tend to expect their team to do better than it actually will perform.  Is there any evidence to back up this idea, I wonder ? 

 

My perception for City fans if you look back at last year and the year before, and compare predictions on this forum with our final placings of 12th under Lambert and 11th under Hughton, is that most fans were predicting a lower finish than we achieved, and relatively few thought we''d do better than we actually did.  But I can''t be bothered to add them up (anyway it probably wouldn''t be a big enough sample).  Generally I think City fans, from long experience of poor performances, don''t tend to err on the over-optimistic side.

 

This year there is a definite optimistic feeling among many posters with plenty of predictions around 10th or so, a few even higher, and not sure anyone has predicted us to be relegated yet.  It will be interesting to see how this pans out compared to the eventual outcome, or indeed the prediction based on wages that we''ll be 16th, (if that is our relative wage position).

[T 190]

Admittedly the guy next to me falling off his chair asleep was probably one of the few entertaining moments.

I confess though that a topic entitled realistic expectations followed by a series of unrealistic expectations proving the theory has a certain irony to it. 

[T 190]

Apparently studies have conistently shown that fans expectations exceed reality. Probably no bad thing that we travel in hope. Its only a problem when people make bad decisions because we are poor at grasping probability.  There is a reason bookies make money. Lotteries would never exist if people made rational decisions. They are effectively a tax on ignorance. A brilliant right wing tax which the poor are happy to pay for the past times of the rich. If we are being dull than an interesting one would be how Norwich fan expectations versus reality compare to other clubs i.e. a statistical survey on how miserable and ignorant NCFC fans are compared to other clubs.

[Iwans Big Toe 312]

[quote user="T"]Apparently studies have conistently shown that fans expectations exceed reality. Probably no bad thing that we travel in hope. Its only a problem when people make bad decisions because we are poor at grasping probability.  There is a reason bookies make money. Lotteries would never exist if people made rational decisions. They are effectively a tax on ignorance. A brilliant right wing tax which the poor are happy to pay for the past times of the rich. If we are being dull than an interesting one would be how Norwich fan expectations versus reality compare to other clubs i.e. a statistical survey on how miserable and ignorant NCFC fans are compared to other clubs.[/quote]I wonder if Charles Dickens novel would still be considered a classic had it be called "Statistical Probabilities"?

[Crispy 4]

I''ll take 11th right now.

Players will take time to settle and I expect us to be more consistent this year and be solid throughout the season as opposed to being amazing for 10 games, then crap for the next 10.

Even though we have new strikers we are still short on numbers and with them all having to adapt to the premier league we could well see a reliance on our midfield.

I fully expect us to improve as the season goes on but hope to God we won''t be near the bottom with 5 games to go as our last few games are tough.

[......and Smith must score. 1,336]

On paper with our new additions perhaps we should expect to finish slightly above where we did last year. That said a lot of decent teams don''t finish 10th or better so I''m going for a slightly worse final position of 12th to 15th.A nice Cup run would make a refreshing change but I expect that to end in disappointment in the 5th Round in both Cups, and with that the elusive day out at the new Wembley.I''m hoping one realistic expectation of mine will be that Chris Hughton employs a more adventurous style this term. We need to enjoy watching Norwich City again. With the new players on board and barring a run of injuries I don''t think he''ll have any excuse not to '' go for it '' more often. I think he will but if he persists with last season''s tactics I doubt he''ll still be City manager come the New Year.

[Iwans Big Toe 312]

[quote user="......and Smith must score."]On paper with our new additions perhaps we should expect to finish slightly above where we did last year. That said a lot of decent teams don''t finish 10th or better so I''m going for a slightly worse final position of 12th to 15th.A nice Cup run would make a refreshing change but I expect that to end in disappointment in the 5th Round in both Cups, and with that the elusive day out at the new Wembley.I''m hoping one realistic expectation of mine will be that Chris Hughton employs a more adventurous style this term. We need to enjoy watching Norwich City again. With the new players on board and barring a run of injuries I don''t think he''ll have any excuse not to '' go for it '' more often. I think he will but if he persists with last season''s tactics I doubt he''ll still be City manager come the New Year.[/quote]That will all depend on where we are in the league I suspect. If his defend first tactics see us in the top 6, unbeaten in 12 games I think McNasty will be more than happy to continue paying his wages, even if Carrow Road is ringing with the sound of 23,000 people snoring their heads off. If we are in the bottom 3 however, he''ll probably be for the chop with the money that the board backed him with. My "Great Expectations" are the former, I just hope that "Statistical Probabilities" don''t suggest the latter.

[PortlandCanary 0]

All my predictions are realistic, so here goes...

League Postition: Lucky 13

Top Scorer: RvW at 10+

Surprise Player: Wessi puts in the performance of his career.

Disappointment: Tettey''s failure to launch and Becchio''s total absence.

Top Three: 1. City 2. Chelsea 3. Spurs

Bottom Three: Hull, Palace and Sunderland

Tops Scorer in the League: Edin Dzeko

Managers who get stuffed: Jol, Bruce, Pardew (during the half on Sunday) and *GASP* Wenger.

Bring on the madness!

(Unrelated note- So glad I found this site, forum and you lot. It''s hard being a Canary way out here in the uncivilized colonies.)

[iron_stan 0]

between 6th and 11th

 The aim should be to finish higher each season

spent a lot of money, might not be done yet either, pressures on hughton to do better, its 100% his squad now, no excuses.

[snake-eyes 13]

Statistically 89.6% of all statistics are made up! [:O]

 

9th-12th place finish

 

Hooper top scorer for us

 

Redmond POTS!

 

Negredo top league scorer

 

Pardew first for the chop

 

Hull, CP and Stoke to go down.

 

Snake

[PortlandCanary 0]

[quote user="snake-eyes"]

Negredo top league scorer

[/quote]

That is a bold prediction.

[snake-eyes 13]

More of a guess than prediction!

[Iwans Big Toe 312]

[quote user="snake-eyes"]More of a guess than prediction![/quote]No guess work please, this thread is for expectations. [:P]

[PortlandCanary 0]

[quote user="snake-eyes"]More of a guess than prediction![/quote]

Like I''ve said before, I''m a closet Blue. I''ve been following their pre-season pretty closely and I think that Dzeko is finally going to show the league his potential. Mancini didn''t like him and only used him grudgingly. MP seems to have real confidence in him and it''s shown in the pre season. And with Navas and Jovetic supporting him, he''s going to be a force.

Negredo...Eh. He''ll score, but I don''t think he''ll get enough time on the pitch to be a top scorer.

[Iwans Big Toe 312]

[quote user="PortlandCanary"][quote user="snake-eyes"]More of a guess than prediction![/quote]

Like I''ve said before, I''m a closet Blue. I''ve been following their pre-season pretty closely and I think that Dzeko is finally going to show the league his potential. Mancini didn''t like him and only used him grudgingly. MP seems to have real confidence in him and it''s shown in the pre season. And with Navas and Jovetic supporting him, he''s going to be a force.

Negredo...Eh. He''ll score, but I don''t think he''ll get enough time on the pitch to be a top scorer.[/quote]I was worried for a second there I got as far as binn.......[;)]

[Boomer21 0]

The days of a chance at the top 5 are sadly gone. That said I think a top 10 finish would be a hugely successful season. Obviously staying up is the goal. An away win against MU would also be nice. I have a good feeling about this year. 

[crabbycanary 2]

10th and Redmond the one to watch. BRING IT ON!

[JC 0]

12th, comfortably free of the relegation battle, the same prediction as the last two years that we will be safe come the final game of the season, also I fancy us for a cup run.

I think Fer will be a massive influence on our season, I hope that Redmond makes an impact. I also expect one of RvW or Hooper to break through 15 league goals

[Badger 2,405]

I would be very happy if we achieved the same position as last year and content if we avoid relegation. Anything above this would be amazing and in my view unlikely - it concerns me that now we are beginning to have a squad of mainly premiership standard that the level of expectation is too high in some quarters, which is a threat to our success.

I am with T on the statistics debate, which I thought interesting. Much of the mistrust that exists about statistics is the result of the misunderstanding of what they are saying, propagated by innumerate journalists.

If anyone is interested, unlikely I know, can I recommend "The Tiger That Isn''t" - an excellent book on the topic. The review by Rory Bremner states amusingly "...makes statistics far, far too interesting" - particularly recommended to students doing economics, social science and history degrees!

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

1. We will not be relegated.2) Hooper will end the season with a better goals per game ratio than van Wolfswinkel.3) We will not take the Cup competitions seriously.4) There will be at least one Norwich City player representing his country in the World Cup in Brazil.