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Dubai Mark

Your realistic expectations for the season.......

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Ok, its what it says on the label......your "realistic" expectations for the season, that is for Norwich City of course? oh, and which players do you think will be our stars and surprise packages?

I personally am actually expecting another tough season despite our new signings, as in this league the margins are very fine between getting into the top 10 and staying out of the bottom three, so based on that I would be delighted with 9th or 10th and not upset at all if we managed to keep away from the bottom three all season.

I am expecting a similar style of play, BUT with a little more attacking flair than last season as a result of the players now at CH''s disposal which should certainly bring a few more goals without leaving us exposed at the back, also I am not expecting us to get turned over much at all like Liverpool last season for example. 

From what little we have seen already, from the new signings I think we will see Hooper, Fer and in particularly Redmond (even though I doubt he will start every week) star and can see this being a huge season for Ruddy with Bassong consistently showing his class again. Surprise package.........I am expecting (would like) to see both Bennett''s move up a level again this season and seriously push for regular starts, I think they are two players with loads of potential (now I have said that,you watch them go out on loan).

Final prediction, if we get of to an inconsistent start it will be doom and gloom on here way too quickly as expectations do seem to be very high OTBC    

 

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I think, a similar position to last season is realistic. It will take time for RVW, Fer etc to settle in to the Premier league.

A very positive spin on this would be to say top 10. I think we have it in us to be a top 10 team with our squad.

Realistically I would like between 10-12th place, a striker with 10+ goals and maybe a decent crack at a cup run. That would mark progress for me.

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In terms of players, I feel like Howson will have a good season and be our surprise package. Redmonds will be thrown in at the deep end down to Pilkingtons injury and I feel he''l attract alot of attention from bigger clubs by January.

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With the present squad - I expect 11/12 - with more consist6ency and security. We have a better squad this year, although some will have to settle in, but most teams have improved their squads also, - they all have Sky money!

 

If we manage to sign one or two very good players before the deadline - either those who are dragging their heels at present or others, than I think we might achieve 9/10.

 

I''ll settle for mid table.

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[quote user="Dubai Mark"]Final prediction, if we get of to an inconsistent start it will be doom and gloom on here way too quickly as expectations do seem to be very high OTBC[/quote]

Agree pretty much with everything you say, DM, especially the last sentence!    Despite the new signings, it only takes one or two injuries suspensions and we will be back to a similar team as last year, without GH.   So I too expect a tough season, but I do think that if we are safe by the last six games, we can go into those games as we did in the game against Man City away last season.  So if we are on say 40 points by the last six games, we can really go for it in those last tough few games.  So who knows, if we have nothing to lose and play well those last games,  it could mean the difference between twelfth  and seventh.....or even 6th.. 

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My realistic expectation... to avoid relegation. I think we are now probably entitled to expect that!

 

What I hope we will achieve is a top 10 finish and a semi final (at least) in either cup. I hope for a big season for Johnny Howson, Nathan Redmond and the two boys up front. My tip for surprise package, I don''t think we have one really. We have signed well and don''t really have much coming through the youth ranks. But i''m going to stick my neck out and predict more than 5 goals from Wes. That would be a surprise! ;-)

 

That said, as long as we stay up, I will be a happy man.

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My realistic view of the season:

Main objective is to avoid relegation. I think we will finish around 14th. We won''t go far in the FA Cup. We may reach the quarter finals again in the League Cup, but again, no further than that.

I think RVW and Hooper will bag the majority of our goals this season. The latter ending up as our top scorer.

I believe we will finish the season with the same management team in place.

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Last season was odd in that we did well against many of the top teams but not that well against the bottom half (whereas under Lambert we were excellent against the bottom half but got little from the top teams).

 

We have definitely improved our squad, and I''m optimistic that RVW/Hooper will give us a greater goal threat than last year.  Looking around, some of the teams around us have improved but our transfer dealings look better than most.

 

I am hoping we will be able to play with a little more freedom than we did in our poor spell after Christmas.

 

Realistically I expect us to be one of the teams in the mid-table pack.  If we are never under serious threat of relegation and end up near the top of the mid-table pack (say 8-10th) I''d be happy with that, and it is achievable.

 

But I agree that some on here do seem to have got their expectations up too far, and if things don''t go swimmingly from the start I wouldn''t be surprised to see a few who veer to excessive pessimism, like last season.

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At the end of the season in this division. If moyes think man u''s start is awkward. Look at our end of season run in. We need to be close to safety near then. It will still be tough as those games could cripple us and with possible injuries not good.

I think we can stay in this league and expect a little cup run but seriously I do not care about the fa cup again, itis key to. Stay in this league and theft cup comes at the wrong time of the year as Wigan found out. League cup a little different, so I would not mind a little run in that cup competition but certainly not to the detriment of our league status those 38 games are all critical. Every single one you will take momentum, some type of form on with you individually and as a team.

But expectations from a very good Everton game, there is no form to go. On with the first game of the season. So hopefully we are lass cold them Everton and can pick up a result. I do feel however with our midfield and hoops from last season likely to start with the exception of Redmond it could show why fer has been brought in. Snoddy was the best our midfield but we have to raise our levels as our midfield group without the signing of fer would look very poor in this division after the run during our last 19-20 games last season.

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It will be tough. I expect a similar season to the last, but with good results more spread

out across the year.  Injuries in key areas could cause us a few scares

(see Hooper''s recent injury). It will also be interesting to see who

takes a more prominent leadership role on the pitch following Holt''s

departure. I doubt we will witness another 10 game unbeaten run, which means Norwich will have to be more consistent and resilient throughout the season, especially away from home. Bringing in new players of greater technical ability like RVW and Fer should help with this aim. But they need to stay fit and available to play, as well as gel with their team-mates.Hughton doesn''t look likely to change his tactical approach (defence

first) any time soon. But hopefully players like Redmond and Hooper will

encourage him to go the subs bench earlier and be more pro-active

during games.I''m still concerned about our ability to keep the ball. As well as creativity in the side without Wes playing a prominent role. With this in mind, I''d like to see whatever is left in the kitty spent on a creative midfielder/support striker or both.For me, without seeing all our new players together in a competitive match it''s hard to make any kind of prediction as to what impact they all will make. But it''s worth remembering that every other team has been strengthening their squads too, so in some ways we are simply keeping up with the neighbours

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My realistic expectation is a mistable finish 10-14th place. I think we have the quality now to achieve that, just need another CB in...imho we''re a little light there. The suprise star of the show this season imo could well be Johnny Howson or Nathan Redmond whom I rate very highly. But Johnny is a class act and he''s now experienced enough PL football to do very well for us.

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8th to 14th.   There is a wide range of what is possible.   it is not just down to us.  Other teams'' fortunes will rise and fall and where we are comparatively will be affected.

 

Remember that everyone else is trying to move forward.  If we stand still we go backwards.  If we are in the same place then we are moving forward faster than some and slower than others.   We cannot control how fast others travel.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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As this thread demonstrates humans have a poor grasp of statistical probabilities and in particular football fans consistently typically over estimate their team''s chances. 16th would be the median with 14th to 18th within the most likely normal perfomance range . Anthing outside that would be an over/under performance.

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[quote user="T"]As this thread demonstrates humans have a poor grasp of statistical probabilities and in particular football fans consistently typically over estimate their team''s chances. 16th would be the median with 14th to 18th within the most likely normal perfomance range . Anthing outside that would be an over/under performance.[/quote]

 

Yes, because you can rigidly apply laws of probability to completely subjective events such as football matches. It''s easy to do that isn''t it, because every player comes with a statistical rating which we can compare in all certainty against one another and derive the probability from the sum of the total of the ratings for each starting 11, with a variation dependent on how many substitutes are likely to be used, when they shall be used and who will actually play and how likely any player is to be sent off in that particular game against that particular opposition.

 

I suggest it is you who has the poor grasp of probability if you think it can apply so rigidly to any field with such uncertainty regarding the numerical values required to make such judgments.

 

I''d be interested to know where your 14th-18th ''most likely performance range'' comes from too.

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I would love to have a season, realistically, where we can sail happily just above the relegation scrap as West Ham did (like a typical Fulham or Stoke campaign ... not counting last year!).

Having said that ... if we scrape survival again I will be thrilled but Hughton may not have another summer transfer window!

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I''m not applying the laws of probability to a subjective matter at all. Quite the reverse I''m looking at the objective evidence that arises form studying the facts on fans predictions and league position. Its just basic probability and decision theory. There have been numerous studies. All you have to do is analyse the wage bill against points/league position and there is 70 to 80 long term correlation on average with a 2 place standard deviation. Hence prediction. Indeed, due to the complexities of transfers, injuries, form ,chance wages is indeed only a 70 to 80 pc predictor of points/position but it is still a very effective predictor. As pointed out elsewhere the denial/blame response is a classic example of poor human grasp of probabilities.

A classic simple example. A coin lands heads 5 times in a row. What is the probability that the coin will land heads next time? A lot of people will get the answer wrong becasue of natural heuristics that humans have developed over time.

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Realistically I''m looking for a little less stressful season, a few more goals from our strikers, mathematically safe by Sunderland at home (22 March) and a cup semi-final or final would be the cherry on top.

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I am hoping for middle third again - if we are below 14th its a poor season,  anything above 10th is a great performance.   A solid cup run or two would finish it off nicely

 

I dont really expect us to be beating everton by 3 or 4 as some do - most games will continue to be close and there remain some very strong teams out there.    If we return to our winter performance levels we will struggle - our results will depend upon our central midfield again.

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Only on here could a thread about expectations for the season resort to a discussion about the laws of probability, you have to smile [:)] ....I wonder what the chances of that happening were? 

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[quote user="Dubai Mark"]Only on here could a thread about expectations for the season resort to a discussion about the laws of probability, you have to smile [:)] ....I wonder what the chances of that happening were? [/quote]

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[quote user="The Frisbee Hyena"][quote user="Dubai Mark"]Only on here could a thread about expectations for the season resort to a discussion about the laws of probability, you have to smile [:)] ....I wonder what the chances of that happening were? [/quote][/quote]DOH! [:$]Give me a minute.

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[quote user="Dubai Mark"]Only on here could a thread about expectations for the season resort to a discussion about the laws of probability, you have to smile [:)] ....I wonder what the chances of that happening were? [/quote]If you take 2 options, one that the thread stays on topic, the other that it moves on to a discussion of the laws of probablilty, then divide that by the number of current posts (including my mispost) of 25 the results come back as thus:Probability of event that occurs P(A): 0.8Probability of event that does not occurs P(A''): 0.92What that means.... I have no idea how to figure out probabilities.

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You said realitic Dubai ;-) - well reality including football is just statistical probabilities.

Just probably there are threads on every premier league football message board about realistic expectations for the season

Just probably you take the median average expected league position for each football club expected by the fans

Just probably you compare the actual final league position with the fans expected league position

Just probably the fans average expected league position will exceed the actual final league position

Just probably there are actually twenty league positions and one club will finish in each of those positions

QED Just probably the fans expectatations are not realistic as they can not all be right.

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[quote user="T"]

I''m not applying the laws of probability to a subjective matter at all. Quite the reverse I''m looking at the objective evidence that arises form studying the facts on fans predictions and league position. Its just basic probability and decision theory. There have been numerous studies. All you have to do is analyse the wage bill against points/league position and there is 70 to 80 long term correlation on average with a 2 place standard deviation. Hence prediction. Indeed, due to the complexities of transfers, injuries, form ,chance wages is indeed only a 70 to 80 pc predictor of points/position but it is still a very effective predictor. As pointed out elsewhere the denial/blame response is a classic example of poor human grasp of probabilities.

A classic simple example. A coin lands heads 5 times in a row. What is the probability that the coin will land heads next time? A lot of people will get the answer wrong becasue of natural heuristics that humans have developed over time.

[/quote]

 

So explain last years 11th place finish and while you are at it, the 12th place the year before that. Your probability theory has been incorrect twice, and not just for us, I think QPR maybe illustrate that the best and West Brom.... Let''s go wider shall we. the top two in the money league - Real Madrid and Barcelona. They contested a thrilling Champions League final didn''t they...

I was going to write a long philosophical rant about the nature of heuristics, but frankly there''s very little evidence to show that they would be used in a medium such as this, so I bit my tongue. Frankly, the results don''t match what you are saying and they very rarely do.

 

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