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Juggy

Teams that you can't see us finishing below...

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I got asked by a Spurs fan today what the lowest position is that I''d take this season. I suppose 17th would be the obvious answer. The question was a lot different to "where do you think you will finish this season" or "what do you think the target is". 
I''d think we will finish anywhere between 8th and 12th, I suspect the target is 10th (top half), but the lowest position that I would take was a difficult question. The only way that I could really answer it is to identify every club that I''d be extremely disappointed to finish below, and I could only think of 6...
Hull City
Cardiff City
Stoke
Crystal Palace
Fulham 
Sunderland
I can see Newcastle and Villa having better seasons, and if Carroll stays fit then can''t see West Ham down there either. Newcastle will make signings and don''t have Europe this year. 
So from that I was able to determine that the minimum position that I''d probably accept this season is 14th, anything lower would be a bad season. What would your answer have been to this question? 

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Fulham are unpredictable, if berbatov, hangeland and taarabt all find form they''ll be above us.

I would certainly say though that

Sunderland

Hull

Stoke

Palace

Cardiff

are certainly all definitely worse than us, and the possibles are

Villa (lest we forget that Arsenal are in disarray)

Fulham

Newcastle

That''s how it looks to me really, anything else is a bonus, I think we''re in a fight for 8th with Southampton, Swansea, West Ham and WBA.

Therefore I think 8th-12th is where we''ll be. Sure, it''s vague, but that''s just how I think it''ll pan out.

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Agree Nutty but if I''d say "17th" I''d have sounded unambitious and it would have been talking us down, perhaps I should rephrase it a little.... 14th or above would be a decent enough season, below that would be a disappointment considering the investment. A "bad" season would of course be relegation.
Citizen, I believe Southampton won only 4 points in their first 10 games last season and look like certainties for the drop so I''m not writing Palace and Hull off just yet, but to be honest I too can''t see either of them staying up.
Cardiff have got a decent chance I think, because I think Stoke, Sunderland and Fulham will all struggle again this year. But then who knows, in our first season all three promoted teams stayed up and you never know who might lose a manager or have an injury crisis / confidence crisis / investors pull out.

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"dissapointed at finishing 15th or below because of our investment" seems to me to be a dubious argument - because everyone else has or will invest to strengthen their team too.

However we did finish mid table the previous two years and this weekend suggested that Stoke (mugged in a 1-0 loss at Liverpool), Cardiff, Hull (ditto 2-0 at Chelsea) and Palace have a lot of work to do to survive let alone thrive, and I have serious doubts that Villa, Newcastle, WBA, Sunderland, Fulham and Southampton can sustain good form over a season... so putting 3 of those below us too my "minimum acceptable" would be 13th.

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There won''t be many teams outside of the top six who spend as much as us this summer Yellow Rose. Southampton the obvious exception, Swansea will come close but they are going to have at least a dozen extra fixtures to contend with.
Newcastle, Stoke and West Brom have yet to really spend anything at all. West Ham have blown their budget on a player that was already in their squad last season. Fulham have blown a big chunk of their budget on £65k a week Darren Bent, jury is out. West Brom have replaced Lukaku with a 34 year old Anelka.... jury is out again.
I think that raising our expectations in line with our relatively significant investment is actually sensible, we''ve spent a lot of money. There are 12 days left of the window of course so it could all change, but there won''t be many teams outside of the top six spending what... £14m on strikers and counting?
We were in that little group of mid-tabler''s with Stoke, Newcastle. and Fulham last year. Would be disappointed not to pull away from a few of those five or six other mid table teams from last season considering their lack of spending, unless they all go on a shopping spree over the next 12 days.
West Brom weren''t too far ahead of us last season, I think we have comfortably strengthened a lot more than they have. My sensible prediction is 8th to 12th (again, really), but I''d quietly be optimistic about 8th or 9th, think we could do it.

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West Brom actually lost more games than us I believe but obviously won more where we drew more. A goalscorer or two which we may now have should see to it that we close the gap and possibly overtake them.

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Based on the weekedn results, then Arsenal are dead certs for the drop as are Swansea, but I can see a top four and ten finish respectively for these two..........but seriously it really is difficult to predict anything at this stage, we need at least half a dozen matches and even then things turn round before Christmas for many sides who start slow. BUT, I will take a stab at this and say...Hull City, Cardiff City, Stoke City, and Crystal Palace, possibly Sunderland and would love to see Villa. 

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I agree with the original list and would possibly add Newcastle given their internal problems. What impressed me with Saturday is that we competed without possibly 3 or 4 players who would otherwise have started that game. Looking down that Everton team sheet showed what a good first 12 or 13 they have. If we get caught up in the serious relegation mix one would have to be disappointed and same something has gone wrong. I do not think this will be the case

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Will be an interesting indication of whether there has been a tactical change since last seasons away performances against some of the "weaker" teams.

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Hull played OK yesterday in the second half and knocked the ball around very nicely, with some pace down the flanks which caused Chelsea some problems after their whirlwind start subsided. I think over a season they will struggle but we will have a tough game on Sat. They have bought some useful players such as Huddlestone, Graham (albeit loan) and Figueroa. Elmohamady looked sharp yesterday. Sagbo and Aluku caused problems at times.

 

Ones below us for me are Sunderland, West Brom, Palace, Cardiff, possibly Stoke and Newcastle. Maybe Hull but as above they could be the surprise package.

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People on here have short memories, basing a whole teams season on the first game!I''m sure after opening day last season, the fans of Fulham, Stoke, Southampton, Villa, Newcastle, Sunderland, Wigan, Reading, QPR (ok maybe not them) would have all said they will easily finish above us based on us losing our first game 5-0Give some teams a chance, they have been away first game and home form will give more of an indication of how they will get on this season.

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[quote user="Tumbleweed"]

Hull played OK yesterday in the second half and knocked the ball around very nicely, with some pace down the flanks which caused Chelsea some problems after their whirlwind start subsided. I think over a season they will struggle but we will have a tough game on Sat. They have bought some useful players such as Huddlestone, Graham (albeit loan) and Figueroa. Elmohamady looked sharp yesterday. Sagbo and Aluku caused problems at times.

 

Ones below us for me are Sunderland, West Brom, Palace, Cardiff, possibly Stoke and Newcastle. Maybe Hull but as above they could be the surprise package.

[/quote]

 

They''ll give us problems, I''m sure of that.

 

Oh, and Palace already dead imo.

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Very early, but WBA have Vydra for LUkaku from last year, don''t think Vydra will score as many. Appart from that WBA look an average side. The three coming up are certs for a low finish and Stoke for me another poor side.

 

So WBA, Stoke, Palace, Hull & Cardiff, the next few teams are in the same ball game as us, Newcastle, Villa, Everton (Fellani & Baines will be at United and Matinez appears to be building Wigan 2 at Everton), Fulham and Swansea.

 

Hard to call from that lot.

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[quote user="Highland Canary"]Thought Hull looked OK yesterday. Let''s hope we go to Humberside and ''give it a go''...[/quote]

 

Should we not show them the same respect that we show the more established premier league teams?

 

 

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I think there will be at least 6 between us and bottom place. Those teams would be (all of which could be for the drop)-CardiffAFC Hull City Orange SoxCrystal PalaceSunderlandNewcastleStoke (think they might surprise a few people unfortunately though)I also think (as much as it pains me to say this about a Sam Alardice team) that if we finish above West Ham this season, we''ll be looking at top 7 or 8 and possible Europa League next year. Realistically though, I think it''s gonna be another tight season and you''ll probably be able to throw a hanky over most of the teams from 8th to the relegation spots with 4 or 5 games to go. It may not be squeaky bum time again, but Hull, Cardiff and Palace ain''t gonna be relegated by Christmas.

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Far too early to say of course, but like most I''d agree it is hard to see Cardiff, Hull, Palace, Sunderland, Stoke finishing above us.

 

Next weekend will be a very interesting test of Hughton''s approach.  I was pleasantly surprised that he went for Redmond last weekend.  With an away game against one of the team expected to be weaker, if he keeps Redmond in the starting line up that will be a good sign.

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What undid Hull yesterday was the pace and movement from Chelsea''s front 3/4. Stick Redmond in there with Fer supporting RVW and Tettey at the back holding the centre (neutralisng Huddlestone) with Whittaker and Martin marshalling their wingers, Turner or Bassong on Graham,  and we have a good chance of a result.

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[quote user="Tumbleweed"]What undid Hull yesterday was the pace and movement from Chelsea''s front 3/4. Stick Redmond in there with Fer supporting RVW and Tettey at the back holding the centre (neutralisng Huddlestone) with Whittaker and Martin marshalling their wingers, Turner or Bassong on Graham,  and we have a good chance of a result.[/quote]Agree with the pace bitHull were absolutely awful when they were being pushed backIt was only when they were given space they looked ok

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Also on Palace, I''ve just seen it pointed out that Wilbraham started for them yesterday.  While he made a big contribution as cover for our first choice strikers while he was here, I never felt he was good enough for the Prem, so if he is starting for them they are in trouble. 

 

I remember the goal he scored against Fulham which I think was the only goal he scored in the Prem, and it was a shot straight at the keeper from fairly short range, which spooned up off a defender''s leg leaving the keeper with no chance - so a big slice of luck.  He was one of those strikers that I never felt any confidence he''d put away a scoring chance (and let''s face it, we''ve had more than a few over the years).  Not knocking the guy, like I say he made a big contribution for us, but not good enough for Prem level.

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TNB, I would argue that one summer''s worth of transfer fees (albeit the freshest in our memories) is just a fraction of half the story. Total squad value plus wage bill would be a fairer predicter of a season''s performance, for example.

 

Although moving up the transfer fee ladder (apparently 16th in squad value: http://www.transfermarkt.de/de/premier-league/marktwert-vereine/wettbewerb_GB1.html), we are surely still around the bottom quarter for relative wages (based on our not having a sugar daddy).

 

The differential of course is about the ''unbuyable'' magic ingredients of tactics, morale, and luck - which makes football still a sport worth following - and makes it a great time to be a Norwich fan. As long as we don''t expect to punch vastly above our financial weight every single season... the long term challenge being gradually to put on weight...

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According to Soccernomics the big correlation is between wages and league position.  Not transfer fees - for example, in the ''00s Liverpool were one of the big spenders overall but spent more on transfer fees and less on wages, relative to their rivals, and their league position was less good than competitors who spent more on wages and less on transfers (compared to Liverpool - obviously the top teams spend a lot on both).

 

Of course we have to be wary of naively assuming you can simply jack up the wages you pay and success will result.  QPR were the perfect experiment for that kind of approach last season.  My suspicion is that the wages/league position correlation results from higher wages being paid, by and large, to the better players, and a team with better players generally does better (not exactly rocket science).  But what this does mean is that if you can find "unfashionable" players, i.e. players who are good but don''t appeal to the top teams for some reason, you can do better than your wage level would suggest.  There are quite a few players in our squad for the last 2 years who fall into that category.

 

Also as has been pointed out, football is a team game with all the imponderables of putting together 11v11 which happily means the team with the 11 best individuals often does not win.   One of the many reasons it is the best sport.

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I''m quite surprised about the amount of people writing Fulham off. A front line of Berbatov and Bent is pretty formidable. I think their playing styles could compliment each other very nicely, and result in a lot of goals. 2 proven goal scorers, and goals mean points, points mean prizes!!

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