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The ghost of Michael Theoklitos

Prepare for a lot of last minute deals this summer

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I have a theory about this year’s transfer window, in that I think we’re in for a long drawn-out saga this summer.With the new Premier League TV money coming into each clubs bank accounts, the market for transfer fees and wages is largely unknown. Is a £2million player in last year’s transfer window still worth that? Or are they worth more as the buying club has more money to play with? I don’t know the answer to this, and I’m not sure many clubs and player agents will either.As a result, I can see a lot of deals this summer dragging out until right to the end. No one will want to commit too soon to a price, which might mean more last minute deals than normal.This is just a theory. I have no idea if this will ring true or not. If I am right, there may be more and more erroneous threads on this message board to wade through.

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Good point, but I''ve got a feeling that Hughton, at least, is intent upon getting his business done early.

 

Perhaps it''s all the rumours floating about.

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"Or are they worth more as the buying club has more money to play with?"

or more likely the release clause is still the same amount, so it will matter little other than the agent trying to hustle bigger wages - which as far as our board will go , theywill get the same response as Fry when he tried to up the figurethe problems will be pretty much as always - the ''player chain''ie we can''t buy x until we have sold y .... and we can''t sell A until we are certain we can get Bshould be ''fun'' as usual

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Some clubs with cash still have not got a manager in place yet. Others possibly Swansea may even lose theirs so yes some powerful clubs may come to the transfer party late as we did last year to a certain extent due to the management change. Other deals will be like a domino effect dependent upon players leaving one club which will result in a series of knock on deals,. That said we are in a good position to do our business early and as much as we can should be done early

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every club outside of the premier league knows about the new tv deal

premier league club comes calling and you put the price up, simples

it doesn''t just apply to man city and chelski now

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"premier league club comes calling and you put the price up, simples"

simple being the operative wordin the real world the price is determined by what the buying club will pay, not the other way round (ask Celtic)

and when the player has a buyout clause for x amountthat is what is paid in that case also

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[quote user="The ghost of Michael Theoklitos"]
With the new Premier League TV money coming into each clubs bank accounts, [/quote]

Surely the new TV money won''t actually be received until the end of the season and prizes/bonuses are divided up, depending on games aired etc etc... Does this mean clubs with no cash/debt can''t really splash the cash until next year, unless they start borrowing money now. I mean, thats a massive wonga "end of season" loan.

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It doesn''t matter when the money comes into the hands of the buyers, the sellers could demand the money and then agree installments.

I''m not sure it will be slow, there have been quite a few moves already. Liverpool appear to be on the edge of signing a player or two already, as does Sunderland.

With Neymar going to Barcelona so early you are already getting firm links with some of their fringe players going elsewhere. A change of manager at Real Madrid is having the same effect.

Once the first part of the chain has happened then you will see other players move.

For example Tevez at Man City is being linked with a few Italian clubs, probably because if they sign Cavani then they wouldn''t need him. Dzeko as well.

The problem for us will be picking out value for money. We can''t pay huge wages AND a huge transfer fee.

Ola Toinan for around £4million looks a bargain but whether we can get him or not is another matter.

If we want to kick on, and really firm up our place in the premier league we need to bring in a good 4-5 new players including RVW if you ask me, if not a little more.

Realistically if you say we have £20million to spend (guess out of thin air) for example, we are looking at around £4-5million a player.

That is a massive move on from the likes of Bassong and R.Bennett who are rumoured to have cost us around £3.5million and one in each transfer window.

It would be the biggest amount paid out over one transfer window we have seen I think.

And for the most part young and hungry - 18-28 year olds wanting to prove themselves in what they would see as a higher level, maybe to set themselves up for one big move or like Kamara, to achieve an ambition.

I doubt very much that there will be a huge amount of last minute deals, there will be more movement of players than we have seen for some time I should think.

That player that many teams have been tracking but unable to meet the valuation of will now just have become that bit more affordable. It will all come down to the scouting networks, the ability of clubs to get in there early and negotiate like heck.

For us I think it could mean quite a few of the squad going. As I said at the end of last season, I think only 17ish players are what you would call ''safe'' in terms of already down for the squad next season.

Players like E.Bennett, Surman, Fox, Butterfield and Barnett could all go to make way for new signings.

Some people have said that there will be some ''shock'' departures. I can''t see it happening unless a bigger club comes in for the likes of Pilkington, Johnson, Snodgrass or Bassong.

In some ways I think we are more safe of that than previously. The likes of Liverpool, Everton and Spurs have their sites set a little higher now.

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[quote user="Vazzza"]

[quote user="The ghost of Michael Theoklitos"]
With the new Premier League TV money coming into each clubs bank accounts, [/quote]

Surely the new TV money won''t actually be received until the end of the season and prizes/bonuses are divided up, depending on games aired etc etc... Does this mean clubs with no cash/debt can''t really splash the cash until next year, unless they start borrowing money now. I mean, thats a massive wonga "end of season" loan.

[/quote]

 

That''s the good thing about it. The money from just two seasons of survival has paid off our debt, allowed us to splash out on the Wolfswinkel and given us a sizeable transfer kitty for this Summer, whilst the real riches are yet to come.

 

I am unable to see any negatives and I suppose ground expansion, one way or another, is the next logical step.

 

Long may it be before the bubble bursts.

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"Players like E.Bennett, Surman, Fox, Butterfield and Barnett could all go to make way for new signings."

Not sure if that would be the case. As it would mean around eightnew signings which would mean spreading the pot even thinner. Far better to get in four really good signings (as RVW) than to bring in players who are probably not that much better than what we already have. Or having to fund a transfer pot of £25m minimum plus the increased wage bill.It would also make for an enormous upheaval with a third of the squad being new players.

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[quote user="BroadstairsR"]

Good point, but I''ve got a feeling that Hughton, at least, is intent upon getting his business done early.

 Perhaps it''s all the rumours floating about.

[/quote]I agree Hughton may look to do business early, and we certainly have more stability at Carrow Road than many of our rivals to help facilitate this. However I think City 1st got it right when he mentioned the player ''chain''. Unless we''re picking someone up on a free (which I doubt we will), every deal will have at least another party to deal with. Then there might be other deals hanging on this.Unfortunately, it''s not all in our own hands.

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[quote user="Vazzza"]

[quote user="The ghost of Michael Theoklitos"]With the new Premier League TV money coming into each clubs bank accounts, [/quote]Surely the new TV money won''t actually be received until the end of the season and prizes/bonuses are divided up, depending on games aired etc etc... Does this mean clubs with no cash/debt can''t really splash the cash until next year, unless they start borrowing money now. I mean, thats a massive wonga "end of season" loan.

[/quote]I don''t think that''s relevant. Budgets are drawn out yearly, and payments for transfers can be structured around the cash flow of the PL money.When the money is budgeted/spent, and when it is actually physically paid are usually 2 different things.

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[quote user="City1st"]"Players like E.Bennett, Surman, Fox, Butterfield and Barnett could all go to make way for new signings."

Not sure if that would be the case. As it would mean around eightnew signings which would mean spreading the pot even thinner. Far better to get in four really good signings (as RVW) than to bring in players who are probably not that much better than what we already have. Or having to fund a transfer pot of £25m minimum plus the increased wage bill.It would also make for an enormous upheaval with a third of the squad being new players.

[/quote]

Sorry, I could have probably worded that better. I didn''t mean that they would all go, just that I could see any of them going if that makes sense. E.Bennett is probably the least likely but if RVW was right and we sign two wingersI can''t see him or Surman still being here come next season.

I should imagine that it will be one in, one out with one or two players moving on anyway.

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chicken, it might make it easier to cut and paste if the quote facility doesn''t work as it can be hard to fish out what is being quoted amonst all that ''gooblydegook''

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I always prefer it when we do our business early and therefore giving the new players time to settle in the area, and also getting used to the players they are going to be playing with and time playing together dyring the pre-season friendlies.

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