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Brightside

Early relegation odds

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http://www.statto.com/football/odds/england/premier-league/relegation.

I can''t believe that we are 4th favourite to go down. I know it''s early doors but after two consecutive mid table finishes and a relitively speaking established manager I don''t know how we could be that low down? I''m not a massive betting person but I would have thought bookies base their odds on several determinating factors rather than as it seems here the three new boys then lil ol nawrich.

Probably reading too much into it but I would have thought betting odds would have put us above Sunderland, Stoke and possibly Newcastle and Villa too.

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Not Villa or Newcastle as rightly or wrongly their flirtation with relegation last season will be seen as a blip.

I would rank us alongside Stoke and Sunderland. The one that''s a bit bizarre and annoying for me is that Southampton seem to be much longer odds than us in all the betting markets. They actually did not finish the season that well last season and of course have the infamous "second season syndrome" to contend with.

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We''re you planning to place a bet on us going down? If not, why are you bothered about what odds the bookies are offering?

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[quote user="tele"]We''re you planning to place a bet on us going down? If not, why are you bothered about what odds the bookies are offering?[/quote]

I was simply interested because the betting odds reflect how we are regarded compared to other teams. 4th from bottom is pretty crap and I think we should be higher thats all. It does bother me that the general opinion is that teams such as Stoke and Southampton are regarded as having a better chance of survival than us.

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Norwich are still regarded as minnows by a lot of punters.  Last time we had an extended run in the top flight it took years before we were taken seriously and treated with more respect.    But that respect only lasted until we were relegated in 95 and we immediately returned to being  viewed as that small country club somewhere out in the sticks.   If we are to be taken more seriously it will take two or three years of   more solid surviving in the premiership and staying well clear of the drop zone.   We got uncomfortably close last season and that is the reason why there is not the confidence amongst punters that we will survive easily.       As Norwich fans we know we have reasons to be optimistic and our knowledge is better than most punters around the country.  Stuff what the odds are.   I would rather have a bet on us finishing 7th than 17th - and I think its more likely, too.

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[quote user="Brightside"][quote user="tele"]We''re you planning to place a bet on us going down? If not, why are you bothered about what odds the bookies are offering?[/quote]

I was simply interested because the betting odds reflect how we are regarded compared to other teams. 4th from bottom is pretty crap and I think we should be higher thats all. It does bother me that the general opinion is that teams such as Stoke and Southampton are regarded as having a better chance of survival than us.[/quote]

Not really. The odds reflect how the bookies spread their risk. It reflects where money has been placed more as much as anything else.

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[quote user="tele"][quote user="Brightside"][quote user="tele"]We''re you planning to place a bet on us going down? If not, why are you bothered about what odds the bookies are offering?[/quote] I was simply interested because the betting odds reflect how we are regarded compared to other teams. 4th from bottom is pretty crap and I think we should be higher thats all. It does bother me that the general opinion is that teams such as Stoke and Southampton are regarded as having a better chance of survival than us.[/quote] Not really. The odds reflect how the bookies spread their risk. It reflects where money has been placed more as much as anything else.[/quote]

 

Not strictly true, the early markets are generated by the bookies, the odds then change accordingly according to betting patterns.

I personally don''t care if we are 4th favourites to go down, realistically thats probably about right, but any team from 8th down could be in a relegation battle this year.

People complained last year that we were one of the favourites for relegation, last year we were the leagues lowest spenders and operated on the smallest budget, it makes sense that we should be deemed favourites to go down

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[quote user="Highland Canary"]Simply reflects we were in that mix last season and that is where the money is placed.[/quote]

 

How does that explain the difference between us and Southampton? Surely they were in that mix for 38 games last season?

 

Get your money down now Highland! If you''re right this time and we don''t win a game before Christmas the odds will be much worse...

 

 

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Opening odds for books (which is pretty much where we are now) are neither about bookies opinions or money being placed. It revolves around the historical data which the bookies use. And making a dent in the trend of that data is going to take time so this is likely to be a perennial discussion for a while. Indeed I hope we continue to have this discussion each year as it means we will be continuing to survive in the premiership.
At least that''s my understanding from the questions I raised before. See page 2 of the previous thread below.

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Premier League position is 70 to 80 percent determined by available finances so 4th favourite for relegation is about right.

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As Sussex has pointed out, the bookies'' view comes from historical data.

 

Looking at it positively, if you take the odds at this time as showing the bookies'' view of what is likely to happen, their expectation is that we won''t get relegated next season, whereas our first year back up they expected us to be bottom, and last year I can''t remember but think it was 2nd or 3rd from bottom.

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[quote user="T"]Premier League position is 70 to 80 percent determined by available finances so 4th favourite for relegation is about right.[/quote]I would have thought mid table would be more accurate if it were based on this criteria, we''re far from being the fourth poorest team in the league.

I''m a little surprised that we''re fourth favourites on the early odds, but I hazard a guess as to why we might be.Towards the end of last season we were at odds of approx 25/1 to be relegated, most teams below us were on very short or almost unbackable odds. We became the "value bet" for non fans and the "insurance bet" for fans of the club. The odds tumbled and not in a manner entirely related to our performance and results. People were taking a punt on us as the outsider of a group of six or so clubs of which two were odds on, one was evens and two were very short odds to be relegated. It doesn''t take too many speculative tenners and twenties at large odds to create exposure for the bookie who had nowhere to go as all the other odds were too low. That''s why despite only being within a couple of points of us some other clubs were available at odds of 66/1, 80/1 they couldn''t balance the book by further shortening the odds of those below so they increased the odds of those just above us same effect different reason ie the bookies suddenly found an outsider in a group of six being backed and tried to negate this by introducing two or three other clubs as "the value bet".IMO if there hadn''t been a run on betting against NCFC at the end of last season we''d be nowhere near the bottom four on opening odds, a late run ie the willingness of punters to bet against Norwich at high odds is just one of many criteria which would be used in calculating the opening market odds but the bookies will have had a scare when all the money started coming in for the 25/1 outsider so this will be heavily weighted in the algorithm.

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We are indeed one of the poorest teams in the League. Probably only Palace and Hull will have a similar or lower budget than us next season given that the majority or Premier League clubs generate higher revenues or have wealthy benefactors.

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It''s the same every year. I''m pretty sure the year we won the Championship the odds were more in favour of us going the other way, the same goes for the previous three pre seasons, the punters and the bookies never gave us a prayer.....then we shoved their betting slips down their throats. I believe the same pattern will be followed once again next season. We''ve got Hoots, we''ve got the Wolf, we''ve still got the Horse, we''ve got Wessi, we''ve got the Rock Bassong. These are happy days people and the bookies can shove their odds right up their ars...........

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There were plenty on here labelling us as the worst team in the premier league, playing the worst football and deserving of relegation irrespective of league position just a few short weeks ago. It''s hardly surprising that the bookies think we are * when our own "fans" do too.

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I don''t mind being the underdog. It''s good motivation for the players to prove the bookies wrong

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[quote user="T"]We are indeed one of the poorest teams in the League. Probably only Palace and Hull will have a similar or lower budget than us next season given that the majority or Premier League clubs generate higher revenues or have wealthy benefactors.[/quote]Hull, Palace and Swansea are significantly poorer than us and bearing in mind we are debt free we have considerable spending power this season so why aren''t Swansea below us in the odds then? The only reason we are down there is the fact that we are an unfashionable club in the Prem

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[quote user="Morisons Prozac"][quote user="T"]We are indeed one of the poorest teams in the League. Probably only Palace and Hull will have a similar or lower budget than us next season given that the majority or Premier League clubs generate higher revenues or have wealthy benefactors.[/quote]Hull, Palace and Swansea are significantly poorer than us and bearing in mind we are debt free we have considerable spending power this season so why aren''t Swansea below us in the odds then? The only reason we are down there is the fact that we are an unfashionable club in the Prem[/quote]12th highest turnover in the Prem 2011/12 and as MP points out being debt free we are in the fortunate position of being cash rich. We also don''t have any leeches on the books draining millions of £££''s a year out the budget for sitting on the bench like a number of our contemporaries who at face value might appear wealthier.Norwich 75m turnover net debt £0 wage bill £37m or Villa turnover 80m net debt £122m wage bill £70m who''s the healthier club?

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[quote user="Canary Wundaboy"]What are the odds on us staying up? Worth putting a bet on to make some easy money?[/quote]Easy money indeed but at a best priced 1/3 not worth a small bet. If we win a couple early on the odds won''t change much if at all but if we lose a couple in August I''d expect to see these odds increase significantly9/2 to finish top ten looks okay to me.The interesting thing about our early relegation odds is this little pie chart from oddschecker (always worth checking)[img]http://s22.postimg.org/exqhhzm01/odds.jpg[/img]It''s a pie chart of what the most popular bets are for straightforward relegation. We may be fourth favourites according to the odds but not according to the punters. Proves there''s a little more to bookmaking than adjusting the book to reflect where the money is laid as is often claimed on here, it also shows that making us fourth favourites for relegation is just the bookies offering their traditional early poor value on the market.

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"Norwich 75m turnover net debt £0 wage bill £37m or Villa turnover 80m net debt £122m wage bill £70m who''s the healthier club?"

That''s all well and good, but it''s well known that the wages a club pays usually correlates well to league position, which will be part of the reason were amongst the early favourites to go down.

Of course, we''ve proved that wrong in the last 2 seasons, as have Swansea, so there''s always exceptions to the rule.

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I would have hoped that having spent the best part of £25m we would travel up the odds table. Do people really think that we are only just slightly better than the new boys that have come up?

Hello all by the way, my 1st post.

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