Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
York Canary

IT BEGINS TONIGHT

Recommended Posts

[quote user="Its Character Forming"]

Thanks OP

 

This time of year you get wild results. It tends to depend on who needs a result more with mid-table and relegated teams flaking out and champions losing at home, but sometimes the lack of pressure can work the other way e.g. Reading at Fulham (albeit Fulham with nothing to play for).  So there''s no way you can say any result is unthinkable etc - anything can happen.  I always remember our final game of the L1 season against Carlisle at home when we were just safe as Champions and we put in an utterly lacklustre performance against a team we''d have rolled-over until then, losing 2-0.  Or just look at Man U losing at home yesterday against Chelsea, not a massive upset but they''ve been winning everything at home this season.

 

But I''m afraid with nothing much to play for I expect Stoke to lose tonight at Sunderland and similarly Swansea to lose at Wigan tomorrow.  We may get lucky with one of these results, especially Swansea have been safe for a while now and may get their focus back for the last few games (players realising they are playing for their places next season) so we can but hope.

 

However you look at it , Saturday is a REAL must-win game for us, for the first time this season.  If we can beat WBA at home we are still probably safe, if not we''re probably going down.

[/quote]You''re very welcome and I''m glad you were wrong about tonight''s game. Sunderland scored against the run of play with 10 men unfortunately to ruin my ultimate hope, but I''ll take the draw I guess. We still need another point minimum. I still see Southampton beating Sunderland as they they''re short of another midfielder now and Southampton tend to do well with possession and are quite free-playing. Both teams need the result, but I''m hope Southampton are the more clinical on the dayI hope you''re wrong about the Wigan/Swansea game too! Fingers crossed!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Our best hope for survival is that Wigan do no better than draw 2 and lose 1 of their remaining three games.

Let''s assume we beat WBA and receive our usual thrashing at the hands of Manchester City. That would mean we have 41 points and almost certainly a worse goal difference to all the others around us.

Southampton would need 2 points from Sunderland A and Stoke H to finish above us on GD.

Villa would need 1 point from Chelsea H and Wigan A to finish above us on GD.

Newcastle would need 3 points from QPR A and Arsenal H to finish above us on GD

Sunderland would need 4 points from Stoke H, Southampton H and Spurs A to finish above us on GD.

Wigan would need 4 points from Swansea H, Arsenal A and Villa H to finish above us on GD.

All these are feasible outcomes and it is highly likely we''ll need a narrow defeat at the Etihad at the very worst to survive. I still can''t quite believe we have played ourselves into this situation just like the 84/85 season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="Dr Crafty Canary"]Our best hope for survival is that Wigan do no better than draw 2 and lose 1 of their remaining three games.

Let''s assume we beat WBA and receive our usual thrashing at the hands of Manchester City. That would mean we have 41 points and almost certainly a worse goal difference to all the others around us.

Southampton would need 2 points from Sunderland A and Stoke H to finish above us on GD.

Villa would need 1 point from Chelsea H and Wigan A to finish above us on GD.

Newcastle would need 3 points from QPR A and Arsenal H to finish above us on GD

Sunderland would need 4 points from Stoke H, Southampton H and Spurs A to finish above us on GD.

Wigan would need 4 points from Swansea H, Arsenal A and Villa H to finish above us on GD.

All these are feasible outcomes and it is highly likely we''ll need a narrow defeat at the Etihad at the very worst to survive. I still can''t quite believe we have played ourselves into this situation just like the 84/85 season.[/quote]For me, a win against WBA should be enough. I''ve looked at all the fixtures and permutations and I just genuinely feel that a win would be enough, BUT getting the win is the hardest bloody part.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="plengcharthai"]Thanks Yok for the nice, clear appraisal of the games coming up this week. There are, of course, more lifelines if Wigan beat Swansea. It''ll mean we have to win on Saturday, but we almost certanly do regardless of any other permutations. If Wigan do get to 38points, then lose to Arsenal, Villa lose to Chelsea, and we do the business against WBA, we''ll be safe and the pressure will be back on Villa going to Wigan. I hope York you can do another analysis as these next few tense days unfold.[/quote]Of course my friend. I find it helps me to see things more clearly and with slightly less panic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
NEXT UPWigan vs Swansea 19.45pmWigan have won 4 of the last 15 games since the New Year with 2 at home and 2 away (away to Reading, home to Newcastle, home to Norwich and away to WBA) They really should not have won against WBA who failed to take the many chances given to them via horrendous Wigan defending. My only hope is that Swansea can be more clinical and that Wigan''s usual failure to beat teams further up the table comes back. The majority of their points come from beating teams around them at the bottom Wigan have conceded more goals than anyone at homeWigan have scored the 5th lowest amount of goals at homeSwansea have lost narrowly in a few games recently, but have played Man City, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal and WBA in their last 7 games. That''s 5 games against top half teams. The other 2 games were against Southampton and us where they took draws from each game. Swansea have conceded the 3rd lowest amount of goals away from homeSwansea have scored the 4th lowest amount of goals away from homeSwansea will be missing Michu (17 goals). Figueroa is out for Wigan''s remaining games and Beausejour is out for this game too. Swansea''s away form (4 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses) is the exact same as Wigan''s home form though Swansea have a goal diff of -6 away from home compared to Wigan''s -12 at homeAnother game where anything can happen and my feeling is that Wigan may nick this one, but it''s realistic to hope for another draw here with all the points above being considered. Wigan will continue to be dodgy in defence and give away chances, but they''ll be buoyed by recent performances. Swansea have a chance to register another win and cement a top-half finish. Both teams play in a similar way so I''m expecting a very open game though hopefully Swansea continue to be tight at the backMan City vs West Brom 19.45pmThe result doesn''t really matter, but the possibility of suspensions/injuries/fatigue to WBA players is something to consider and be watchful of. We get a full week''s rest before we play them whereas they get 4 days after playing the big boys

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="yellow old boy"]Sunderland will bounce back big time against stoke tonight and Wigan will beat Swansea anything else is wishfull thinking[/quote]Wishful thinking come true then eh[quote user="Its Character Forming"]

Thanks OP

 

This time of year you get wild results. It tends to depend on who

needs a result more with mid-table and relegated teams flaking out and

champions losing at home, but sometimes the lack of pressure can work

the other way e.g. Reading at Fulham (albeit Fulham with nothing to play

for).  So there''s no way you can say any result is unthinkable etc -

anything can happen.  I always remember our final game of the L1 season

against Carlisle at home when we were just safe as Champions and we put

in an utterly lacklustre performance against a team we''d have

rolled-over until then, losing 2-0.  Or just look at Man U losing at

home yesterday against Chelsea, not a massive upset but they''ve been

winning everything at home this season.

 

But I''m afraid with nothing much to play for I expect Stoke to lose

tonight at Sunderland and similarly Swansea to lose at Wigan tomorrow

We may get lucky with one of these results, especially Swansea have been

safe for a while now and may get their focus back for the last few

games (players realising they are playing for their places next season)

so we can but hope.

 

However you look at it , Saturday is a REAL must-win game for us, for

the first time this season.  If we can beat WBA at home we are still

probably safe, if not we''re probably going down.

[/quote]VERY happy to see both your predictions were wrong matey. Fancy predicting us to lose against WBA, Newcastle to beat QPR and Wigan to beat Arsenal and Villa?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="York Canary"]NEXT UPWigan vs Swansea 19.45pmWigan have won 4 of the last 15 games since the New Year with 2 at home and 2 away (away to Reading, home to Newcastle, home to Norwich and away to WBA) They really should not have won against WBA who failed to take the many chances given to them via horrendous Wigan defending. My only hope is that Swansea can be more clinical and that Wigan''s usual failure to beat teams further up the table comes back. The majority of their points come from beating teams around them at the bottom Wigan have conceded more goals than anyone at homeWigan have scored the 5th lowest amount of goals at homeSwansea have lost narrowly in a few games recently, but have played Man City, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal and WBA in their last 7 games. That''s 5 games against top half teams. The other 2 games were against Southampton and us where they took draws from each game. Swansea have conceded the 3rd lowest amount of goals away from homeSwansea have scored the 4th lowest amount of goals away from homeSwansea will be missing Michu (17 goals). Figueroa is out for Wigan''s remaining games and Beausejour is out for this game too. Swansea''s away form (4 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses) is the exact same as Wigan''s home form though Swansea have a goal diff of -6 away from home compared to Wigan''s -12 at homeAnother game where anything can happen and my feeling is that Wigan may nick this one, but it''s realistic to hope for another draw here with all the points above being considered. Wigan will continue to be dodgy in defence and give away chances, but they''ll be buoyed by recent performances. Swansea have a chance to register another win and cement a top-half finish. Both teams play in a similar way so I''m expecting a very open game though hopefully Swansea continue to be tight at the backMan City vs West Brom 19.45pmThe result doesn''t really matter, but the possibility of suspensions/injuries/fatigue to WBA players is something to consider and be watchful of. We get a full week''s rest before we play them whereas they get 4 days after playing the big boys

[/quote]Boom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I''m going to keep this going simply because it''s making me feel better and it''s working so far..SundayQPR vs Newcastle 3pmNewcastle have just 1 win away from home (against Villa 2-1)Newcastle have conceded the joint 2nd highest amount of goals away from homeNewcastle have scored the joint 5th lowest amount of goals away from homeQPR have only won 2 at home, but they have lost the same amount of games as Newcasle, Villa and Fulham at home and one less than Wigan have at home. They have the joint highest amount of draws at home (8)QPR have scored the lowest amount of goals at homeQPR have conceded the 5th highest amount of goals at homeGot a feeling it''ll be a draw yet again, but Newcastle will be going for it and QPR should have the pressure off them, which could be interesting. Harry''s team put in a good performance against Arsenal at home and were unlucky to lose 1-0 in the end. Hopefully it''s Newcastle that get caught cold at the start this time. Keeping an eye on Townsend

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...