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ricardo

Poor second half of season?????

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Was it fact or fictionAfter New Years Day games City were 12th and 7pts clear of dangerBottom 3WiganReadingQPRAfter 37 games City 12th and 6pts clear of dangerBottom 3WiganReading QPRFunny old game.[;)]

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Hah, I like it. Hopefully we can get another point or three and finish the season nicely (not that we haven''t already but you know what I mean.)
I''d still like Wigan to beat Villa on the last day though.

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Yes Ricardo, I''ve always thought your prediction was on the money too. As it happens and assuming Wigan even beat Villa (which now must be doubtful) then we were actually safe when we beat Reading (seems an age ago now). The football though has been uninspiring and that has jangled the nerves.

Roll on 2013/14 and hope we are clear of bottom 5 again by first week in December.

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Ricardo, as much as I have criticised Hughton''s style and tactics, and while we had some poor results and back to back defeats ( the home Christmas games were unlucky IMO) the fact is we never went on a run of defeats.

Often that meant some dour draws and a sort of rut (ruts are dangerous in the EPL) where we couldn''t win or draw but there wasn''t a losing rut and this might explain the consistency ou allude to.

West Brom lost more games but gleaned more points but they did get a lot of points early.

The style did for me but the overall result is functional and can''t be argued against.

You''re a sensible poster so here is my sensible concession.

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Ricardo,

I think that just goes to show how fickle statistics can be.

As a long distance supporter I only get to about 1 game in 3, but the last ten games I have been to this season have yielded 20 points. So 2 points a game - why aren''t we in the Champions league?

But let''s be honest the second half of the season has not been an easy ride. The upside of course is that it has led to some terrific atmospheres at CR at the end of the season.

Roll on next season!

OTBC

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[quote user="Sussexyellow"]Ricardo,

I think that just goes to show how fickle statistics can be.

As a long distance supporter I only get to about 1 game in 3, but the last ten games I have been to this season have yielded 20 points. So 2 points a game - why aren''t we in the Champions league?

But let''s be honest the second half of the season has not been an easy ride. The upside of course is that it has led to some terrific atmospheres at CR at the end of the season.

Roll on next season!

OTBC[/quote]The amazing thing is that despite all the panicking, almost nothing changed in 5 months.Admittedly, at times it hasn''t felt like that but the stats don''t lie.

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[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="Sussexyellow"]Ricardo,

I think that just goes to show how fickle statistics can be.

As a long distance supporter I only get to about 1 game in 3, but the last ten games I have been to this season have yielded 20 points. So 2 points a game - why aren''t we in the Champions league?

But let''s be honest the second half of the season has not been an easy ride. The upside of course is that it has led to some terrific atmospheres at CR at the end of the season.

Roll on next season!

OTBC[/quote]The amazing thing is that despite all the panicking, almost nothing changed in 5 months.Admittedly, at times it hasn''t felt like that but the stats don''t lie.[/quote]
Ricardo,
Hats off to you calling this at New Year - which you did. Respect!
I do agree with you - despite all the worry and anxiety I was amazed when I totted up my last ten league games attended to find no defeats and 20 points. As you say it just has not felt like that.
Looking forward to reading your match reports next season and seriously missing the fine City already . Probably be August before I get back.
COYY

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True of course Ricardo

We did flirt with danger when we lost at Wigan then the defeat to Villa left us 3 points above Wigan who had a game in hand. Fortunately their luck ran out this year and their defeat to Swansea blew their game in hand and we won vs WBA to restore a 6 point cushion and the form book reasserted itself when they lost to arsenal tonight.

My concern was remembering their amazing run at the end of last year (5 wins out of 6). This year they lost to Man C despite apparently a good performance and conceded a late equaliser to spurs.

So it proves a team in their position can''t get out of jail every year, sooner or later the odds catch up with them. A while back I guessed our chance of relegation was about 5% and I think that was reasonable.

But there was a moment when we were too close for comfort. Although with decent officials at a couple of games it would have comfortable a couple of games sooner!

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As i posted on another thread, our home record this year is actually better than last year. We have scored only three goals less, conceded 10 fewer, won one more game and gained 4 more points than last year.Now to me that is progress.What we have not done is improved our away record. That is what needs some work next season.

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The results have never been that bad, not many defeats, picking up points all the time in the way of draws, if not wins.  So we have reached our 40 points target (41 and counting)  and are safe in a very tight league this year.   That is not to say we didn''t get  a little too close for comfort to the bottom three - of course we did - but then, so has the whole bottom half of the table.  The style of the football has been the problem and we all know that it has been difficult to watch at times, but taken as a whole, this season has been a success with some notable victories and performances - and at our best we have looked superb.  But all those low scoring, lack of chances, etc etc matches actually mean we have picked up points consistently throughout the season.    

For Hughton this was a massive season to come in and take on a side like ours in our situation financially and on the back of Lambert - and I think you can see that from his after match reaction on Sunday.   This was a personal test for him career wise - and he never let us down and kept us strong.   The critics have been unrelenting in their hostility to him - showing little understanding of  the situation and picking on every little thing to beat him with, but he has kept his dignity - the season has been successful as a whole - and that is what we and the manager should take from it.

You can look at the season as a transitional one - and it could have been a disasater.  It wasn''t - and for all the difficult watches this season, Sunday was surely the reward for all of us - a special match of fantastic positivity.   Something to take forward into the next season.   To see Howson and Becchio linking up so well was also a sign of good hings to come from those two.   

A difficult season it has been and not without its problems but taken as a whole - and for the reasons we all know about - its been a good one.

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Surely Ricardo, your post proves the point.  Our form in the 2nd half of the season was the equivalent to that of a relegated club (i.e points gap did not change).  Our form in the first half of the season was 7 points better than a relegated club.  If we accept our 2nd half of the season form as anything other than poor, then we will end up relegated sooner or later.

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Ricardo,
I was being very tongue in cheek using my own games attended as a base for a mythical statistical projection but your nothing has changed comment has got me thinking. Is the bottom three not changing in itself improbable.
Has there been another season when the bottom three at Xmas/New Year been the bottom three at the end of the year. Without doing any research my gut feel is that this would a rarity if indeed it has ever happened. One always seems to escape from the Xmas bottom three - Wigan obviously in recent years. In which case this year with the log jam at the bottom of the table (we could still finish anywhere between 10th and 17th I think) it could be argued that we have been assisted by an improbability as much as the probability you pointed out.
When you did your analysis at New Year to show that the bottom three at the end of the season tend to come from the bottom 5 at Xmas did you note any years where the bottom 3 remained the same as this year? Just asking out of curiosity.
OTBC

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Ricardo I must say that I have to agree with the sentiments of a couple of others on here.  Whilst yes, the stats don''t lie, what is incorrect here is your interpretation of them.

 

After the New Years Day games we were 7 points better than the 3rd from bottom team Wigan.  If the second half of our season matched that we would finish the season 13 or 14 points ahead of the bottom 3.  The bottom 3 have in fact gained ground on us!

 

I am not sure why you picked after the New Years Day games either as this is more than half way into the season?[:^)]

 

After 19 games -

 

11th - Norwich - Points - 25

18th - Wigan - Points - 15

 

After 37 games -

 

12th - Norwich - Points - 41

18th - Wigan - Points - 35

 

That is a significantly poorer second half of the season in anyone''s  book.  Not forgetting the fact that with 1 game to go, if we lose and Wigan win, we will finish only 3 points above them.

 

25 points from 19 games = 1.32 points per game

16 points from 18 games = 0.88 points per game

 

If we lose to Man City -

 

16 points from 19 games = 0.84 points per game

 

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IMO, you also have to factor in the loss of Ruddy for 5 months. Without him (and you could say similar for Holt and Bassong), City don''t seem to be the same team. His influence last Sunday was almost tangible with the way he seems to fill the goalmouth and command the box. We''ll never know what would have happened if he had been in goal against Villa. Bunn has done a very good job, but Ruddy is in another class.

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[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"]I guess it shows we played no better than a relegation side during the 2nd half of the season as they closed the gap on us.[/quote]

 

In fact we were worse than relegated Wigan over the second half of the season.

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[quote user="norfolkbroadslim"]

Ricardo I must say that I have to agree with the sentiments of a couple of others on here.  Whilst yes, the stats don''t lie, what is incorrect here is your interpretation of them.

 

After the New Years Day games we were 7 points better than the 3rd from bottom team Wigan.  If the second half of our season matched that we would finish the season 13 or 14 points ahead of the bottom 3.  The bottom 3 have in fact gained ground on us!

 

I am not sure why you picked after the New Years Day games either as this is more than half way into the season?[:^)]

 

After 19 games -

 

11th - Norwich - Points - 25

18th - Wigan - Points - 15

 

After 37 games -

 

12th - Norwich - Points - 41

18th - Wigan - Points - 35

 

That is a significantly poorer second half of the season in anyone''s  book.  Not forgetting the fact that with 1 game to go, if we lose and Wigan win, we will finish only 3 points above them.

 

25 points from 19 games = 1.32 points per game

16 points from 18 games = 0.88 points per game

 

If we lose to Man City -

 

16 points from 19 games = 0.84 points per game

 

[/quote]I''m sure you''d find similar averages at WBA, Fulham, Swansea, Newcastle etc too, we weren''t the only team to tail off this season.

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Why on earth are people still trying to manipulate statistics to show how "bad" we are.

Why only compare us and Wigan? Did no other teams play in the second half of the season? Did Wigan pick up more points than Sunderland or Newcastle?

Bottom line is that the season is 38 games. Over 38 games we have been better than at least 3 other teams. Like it or not, that''s staying up form.

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[quote user="ncfcstar"][quote user="norfolkbroadslim"]

Ricardo I must say that I have to agree with the sentiments of a couple of others on here.  Whilst yes, the stats don''t lie, what is incorrect here is your interpretation of them.

 

After the New Years Day games we were 7 points better than the 3rd from bottom team Wigan.  If the second half of our season matched that we would finish the season 13 or 14 points ahead of the bottom 3.  The bottom 3 have in fact gained ground on us!

 

I am not sure why you picked after the New Years Day games either as this is more than half way into the season?[:^)]

 

After 19 games -

 

11th - Norwich - Points - 25

18th - Wigan - Points - 15

 

After 37 games -

 

12th - Norwich - Points - 41

18th - Wigan - Points - 35

 

That is a significantly poorer second half of the season in anyone''s  book.  Not forgetting the fact that with 1 game to go, if we lose and Wigan win, we will finish only 3 points above them.

 

25 points from 19 games = 1.32 points per game

16 points from 18 games = 0.88 points per game

 

If we lose to Man City -

 

16 points from 19 games = 0.84 points per game

 

[/quote]

I''m sure you''d find similar averages at WBA, Fulham, Swansea, Newcastle etc too, we weren''t the only team to tail off this season.
[/quote]

 

I quite agree and I have not suggested or implied anywhere that we were the only team to tail off.[:)]

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[quote user="Warren Hill"]Why on earth are people still trying to manipulate statistics to show how "bad" we are. Why only compare us and Wigan? Did no other teams play in the second half of the season? Did Wigan pick up more points than Sunderland or Newcastle? Bottom line is that the season is 38 games. Over 38 games we have been better than at least 3 other teams. Like it or not, that''s staying up form.[/quote]

 

Who is manipulating these stats Warren?[:^)]

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You need me to point it out?

 

Relegation is decided over the season, best sample to use to judge a seasons performance would be the , er, season? Right?

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I understand all that and recognise it''s relevance to other threads on here but not this one, as this thread is specifically comparing the first half of our season with the second half. 

 

 

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[quote user="lincoln canary"]We flurted very close to relegation this year. Don''t let stats hide that. If we had have lost to west brom we''d probably be going down, which kind of makes the stats irrelevant.[/quote]WTF is this nonsense? We didn''t lose to West Brom which makes your post irrelevant. Do you ever play the positive IF game? If Grant Holt scores his penalty against Southmapton - start with that see how you get on.

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NBS I''m not sure where you''re going with this but..

I understand your point, you replied to my comment where I asked why people were manipulating stats to make us look bad.

I asked why people weren''t comparing our second half to that of Sunderland and Newcastle as well as to Wigan or indeed comparing theirs against each other. Clearly I was adhering to the rules of this thread, you know, half seasons and all.

I then said that the best way to judge a season is over its entirety?

So, I''m a bit lost?

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[quote user="Europe_93"]Surely Ricardo, your post proves the point.  Our form in the 2nd half of the season was the equivalent to that of a relegated club (i.e points gap did not change).  Our form in the first half of the season was 7 points better than a relegated club.  If we accept our 2nd half of the season form as anything other than poor, then we will end up relegated sooner or later.[/quote]No, because everyone was telling me how all those other teams were putting winning runs together. Highland Canary was even telling me that Harry Houdini would have QPR in front of us by the end of the season. Twelve points adrift on New Years Day and 16 points adrift now. That all worked well didn''t it. If you look at the figures you will see that other teams so called good runs turned out no better than our supposed bad run. The only teams to make up points on us were Villa and Southampton. (5pts and 6pts over 16 games)

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[quote user="lincoln canary"]We flurted very close to relegation this year. Don''t let stats hide that. If we had have lost to west brom we''d probably be going down, which kind of makes the stats irrelevant.[/quote]Equally, if Agbonlahor had not scored that late winner at CR then Villa would be going down.Or had Holt netted that pen v Southampton and had the officials not unfairly intervened at Sunderland and Arsenal we would now be sitting in 8th spot.If''s and but''s mate, every team can point to them.

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[quote user="Sussexyellow"]Ricardo,
I was being very tongue in cheek using my own games attended as a base for a mythical statistical projection but your nothing has changed comment has got me thinking. Is the bottom three not changing in itself improbable.
Has there been another season when the bottom three at Xmas/New Year been the bottom three at the end of the year. Without doing any research my gut feel is that this would a rarity if indeed it has ever happened. One always seems to escape from the Xmas bottom three - Wigan obviously in recent years. In which case this year with the log jam at the bottom of the table (we could still finish anywhere between 10th and 17th I think) it could be argued that we have been assisted by an improbability as much as the probability you pointed out.
When you did your analysis at New Year to show that the bottom three at the end of the season tend to come from the bottom 5 at Xmas did you note any years where the bottom 3 remained the same as this year? Just asking out of curiosity.
OTBC
[/quote]No Sussex, I was looking at the bottom 5 after 12 games and found that always 2 of those were relegated and something like 80% of the time all 3 would come from that group. Teams do fall from mid table but not as often as people think. It''s an exception that proves the rule. Xmas day or New Years day are arbitrary points that are simple for people to latch on to. What is striking though is the poorest goal differences at Xmas are often good pointers to who will go down. This year once again the bottom 3 have the worst goal differences.

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Thanks Ricardo. Appreciated.
That''s is very interesting and not wholly what I would have expected. Guess I was sold on the (now) myth of the mid table plummet.
I will now be looking at the 12 game benchmark in future seasons!
OTBC

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