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I agree with Brownie too. And I think the same about our manager. Certainly good enough to manage a Premier League club but probably wouldn''t be considered by Champions Leaguer contenders yet. What say you guys?

 

 

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[quote user="Mr Brownstone"]I am looking at the whole picture, hence my concern. Of course credit must be given, and it was, for reaching 7th. But I''m concerned about our current form and whether that continues into next season. Play like we did in the 2nd half of this season in the first half of next and we''ll be as good as relegated by Christmas. We improved in some areas on last year no doubt, but there were plenty of others where we went backwards. Points scored, goals scored and number of victories to name just a few. How much our team cost when we purchased them is pretty much irrelevant. Just about every single one of them is worth far more than what we paid, some great work by Hughton and Lambert in this area. Even have to credit Gunn and Roeder for Holty and Wes. Ruddy is worth as much alone now as the £11m figure you''ve quoted there. Torres isn''t 25 times the player Michu is just because Chelsea paid 25 times more. I''m not shouting Hughton Out, as I said he deserves to continue, but you can''t just ignore the 2nd half of the season. And where are the apologies from posters saying our players are Championship standard eh?[/quote]

But you can the first half apparently.

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The thing is it would be a lot simpler to make the point if they just ignored the games in which we won the 44 points whenever they were...

 

 

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Mr Brownstone
is talking a lot of sense, anyone that isn''t alarmed with how we''ve performed this side of Christmas really is wearing yellow and green tinted glasses.  Regardless of my views on whether or not Mr Hughton should keep his job moving forward, please don''t let our 11th place finish fool you.  I can understand the logic of those that say we''d have been happy if the games from the 10-game unbeaten run had been spread across the whole season, but that''s not what happened.  We ended up with real relegation worries where, in my view, slightly more positive tactics during Jan/Feb/March could have taken away all of the worry at the end of the season.

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[quote user="Matt Juler"] Mr Brownstone is talking a lot of sense, anyone that isn''t alarmed with how we''ve performed this side of Christmas really is wearing yellow and green tinted glasses.  Regardless of my views on whether or not Mr Hughton should keep his job moving forward, please don''t let our 11th place finish fool you.  I can understand the logic of those that say we''d have been happy if the games from the 10-game unbeaten run had been spread across the whole season, but that''s not what happened.  We ended up with real relegation worries where, in my view, slightly more positive tactics during Jan/Feb/March could have taken away all of the worry at the end of the season.
[/quote]

 

Games 1-10 = 10 points

Games 11-20 = 15 points

Games 21-30 = 9 points

Games 28-36 = 10 points

 

What''s so alarming about that?

 

 

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]

The thing is it would be a lot simpler to make the point if they just ignored the games in which we won the 44 points whenever they were...

 

 

[/quote]

 

Exactly, if only people realised that then the HOBNOBS would be satisfied!

 

There is much that I could say on this particular post, but as someone intimated, rubbing ones noses into it is not the way forward - however to keep trotting out the same twaddle about how we went from playing very exciting football to playing defensive, how our team was shackled and how our team lost confidence going forwards is also not the way forward. The HOBNOBS have shown that they are not prepared to shift their position so there is really no point in carrying on the debate.

 

Shackled? Sigh! Might be that people perceived the changes required by CH and his team in order for the team to improve as "shackling" when in actual fact it was changing the whole team approach to the game.

 

By the way, for those who keep on about us being 7th in December and the "depths" to which we sunk after that, I think it is fair to say that we were playing a 38 game season, and the net result of being mid-table was above and beyond the expectations of most supporters.

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[quote user="nutty nigel"] 

Games 1-10 = 10 points

Games 11-20 = 15 points

Games 21-30 = 9 points

Games 28-36 = 10 points

 What''s so alarming about that?

 [/quote]I''m a Statistician by trade so fully aware that you can play with numbers to change a story (as our clients often want to do, but we don''t let them)!My whole debate is based around excluding the last two games that have massively skewed the data.  That leaves us with 36 games to compare:Games 1-9 = 7 pointsGames 10-18 = 18 pointsGames 19-28 = 7 pointsGames 29-36 = 6 pointsFirst half of the season = 25 pointsSecond half of the season = 13 pointsWhat people seem to fail to understand is I''m very happy that we''re in the Premier League, I''m happy that we finished in 11th place, but just feel our team was being held back due to tactics designed "not to lose" where had we of attempted to win certain matches, I''m confident (as has been shown in the last two games), that we''d have picked up some more points.  Perhaps we''d have lost every game and been relegated on 25 points, but we don''t know, I''m just voicing my opinion.

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[quote user="Matt Juler"][quote user="nutty nigel"] 

Games 1-10 = 10 points

Games 11-20 = 15 points

Games 21-30 = 9 points

Games 28-36 = 10 points

 What''s so alarming about that?

 [/quote]I''m a Statistician by trade so fully aware that you can play with numbers to change a story (as our clients often want to do, but we don''t let them)!

My whole debate is based around excluding the last two games that have massively skewed the data.  That leaves us with 36 games to compare:

Games 1-9 = 7 points
Games 10-18 = 18 points
Games 19-28 = 7 points
Games 29-36 = 6 points

First half of the season = 25 points
Second half of the season = 13 points

What people seem to fail to understand is I''m very happy that we''re in the Premier League, I''m happy that we finished in 11th place, but just feel our team was being held back due to tactics designed "not to lose" where had we of attempted to win certain matches, I''m confident (as has been shown in the last two games), that we''d have picked up some more points.  Perhaps we''d have lost every game and been relegated on 25 points, but we don''t know, I''m just voicing my opinion.

[/quote]

 

This is incredible. The more segments you make the more skewed the results are. Why skew them at all? Why not just say 38 games = 44 points?

 

But if you must break the season down to first half and second half then take games 1-19 (25) and 20-38 (19). Anything else would be manipulating the figures with an agenda. And I''m a bog cleaner by trade!

 

 

 

 

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[quote user="Matt Juler"][quote user="nutty nigel"] 

Games 1-10 = 10 points

Games 11-20 = 15 points

Games 21-30 = 9 points

Games 28-36 = 10 points

 What''s so alarming about that?

 [/quote]I''m a Statistician by trade so fully aware that you can play with numbers to change a story (as our clients often want to do, but we don''t let them)!My whole debate is based around excluding the last two games that have massively skewed the data.  That leaves us with 36 games to compare:Games 1-9 = 7 pointsGames 10-18 = 18 pointsGames 19-28 = 7 pointsGames 29-36 = 6 pointsFirst half of the season = 25 pointsSecond half of the season = 13 pointsWhat people seem to fail to understand is I''m very happy that we''re in the Premier League, I''m happy that we finished in 11th place, but just feel our team was being held back due to tactics designed "not to lose" where had we of attempted to win certain matches, I''m confident (as has been shown in the last two games), that we''d have picked up some more points.  Perhaps we''d have lost every game and been relegated on 25 points, but we don''t know, I''m just voicing my opinion.

[/quote]

So you don''t allow statistical manipulation except when it proves your point?! Why leave off our last 6 points - that''s crazy?

First half - 25 points

Second half - 19 points

Why are you so obsessed with manipulating figures to make us look worse. You could just as easily leave out 2 losses in the second half of the season if it''s decided that they skew the data. If you are being straight, with no manipulation, then we''ll go with the full 38 - anything else simply IS MANIPULATION however professional you are. Simple.

 

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You really can''t exclude "the last two games that have massively skew the data" simply because the season lasts for 38 games.

 

The more accurate assessment is the often quoted "Three part season".

Games 1-7 = 3 points (poor)

Games 8-17 = 22 points (excellent)

Games 18-38 = 19 points (poor)

 

However, the combination was sufficent to get us over the line, even if the manner in which it was achieved more often than not left much to be desired.

 

The bottom line remains however, is that all we are guarenteed is another 38 games in the Premier League 

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And let''s not forget that many fans still state that we had a poor second part to last season when in fact the actual breakdown was:-

Games 1-19 = 22 points

Games 20-38 = 25 points

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If I was talking about the whole season I''d include all 38 games but I''m not, that''s my point!  In my mind the last two games have painted a false picture of the second half of the season, but very few people seem to appreciate this logic.

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There is some funny stuff posted on this thread.The only fact anyone needs to consider is how many points we managed over the season. That''s 44 and sees us finish in 11th place.I bet QPR, Reading and Wigan would swap their season for ours plus the other 5 clubs below us.The only thing that would be worth considering is if we got 44 points up til Xmas and nothing since. Then there might be something to worry about.

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[quote user="Matt Juler"]If I was talking about the whole season I''d include all 38 games but I''m not, that''s my point!  In my mind the last two games have painted a false picture of the second half of the season, but very few people seem to appreciate this logic.[/quote]How does beating WBA 4-0 and Man City 3-2 at their ground paint a distorted picture? The season is 38 games, no more and no less.

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[quote user="Matt Juler"]If I was talking about the whole season I''d include all 38 games but I''m not, that''s my point!  In my mind the last two games have painted a false picture of the second half of the season, but very few people seem to appreciate this logic.[/quote]

Then you might want to add the "ref games" as they didnt tell anything about how we did play. 5 points more from Sunderland and Arsenal games ^^

Our last two games didnt give any false picture as things that happened there has been the point of the strategy choise Hughton has selected for our team.

Yes we have had crappy games and yes some of them has been because of Hughtons selections, but all the good games and great games like the last two have been pretty similar by tactics and there has been them all around the season.

Why cant we always play like that beats me, but when you watch european "elite", their game plan stays quite much same whole season wide and still they have equally crappy games by their standards as did we.

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[quote user="Matt Juler"]If I was talking about the whole season I''d include all 38 games but I''m not, that''s my point!  In my mind the last two games have painted a false picture of the second half of the season, but very few people seem to appreciate this logic.
[/quote]

 

I would have said that removing two results because you didn''t like them would be painting a false picture. Leaving them there would be a true picture. But what would a simple bog cleaner know...

 

 

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[quote user="Matt Juler"][quote user="nutty nigel"] 

Games 1-10 = 10 points

Games 11-20 = 15 points

Games 21-30 = 9 points

Games 28-36 = 10 points

 What''s so alarming about that?

 [/quote]I''m a Statistician by trade so fully aware that you can play with numbers to change a story (as our clients often want to do, but we don''t let them)!My whole debate is based around excluding the last two games that have massively skewed the data.  That leaves us with 36 games to compare:Games 1-9 = 7 pointsGames 10-18 = 18 pointsGames 19-28 = 7 pointsGames 29-36 = 6 pointsFirst half of the season = 25 pointsSecond half of the season = 13 pointsWhat people seem to fail to understand is I''m very happy that we''re in the Premier League, I''m happy that we finished in 11th place, but just feel our team was being held back due to tactics designed "not to lose" where had we of attempted to win certain matches, I''m confident (as has been shown in the last two games), that we''d have picked up some more points.  Perhaps we''d have lost every game and been relegated on 25 points, but we don''t know, I''m just voicing my opinion.

[/quote]

Thats the biggest load of partisan bollix I''ve heard in a long time.Dear oh deary me, lets exclude everything that disproves our thesis.Are you sure you don''t work for the Climate change department at the UEA.?

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Spot on ![quote user="Nexus_Canary"]Ok to play devils advocate1) Anyone stepping in after Lambert would have had hell of a job winning the fans. Another reason why I dont envy the man to fill Fergies boots. Regardless of any sucess its still not "the Messiah"2) Anyone who can hand on thier heart say "They are fully satisfied with Hoots use of substitutions" is lying3) Anyone who can hand on thier heart say "They are fully satisfied with Hoots tactics" is lying4) We went from playing very exciting football to playing defensive, then our team was shackled and lost confidence going forwards. Confidence has been something we have had in bucket loads at Norwich for the last 3 years, seeing the likes of Holty lacking should have scared everyone !

Can people stop trying to jump on the moral high ground, anyone would think that any of the whiners or whingers would be happy if we were relegated. This was not and is not the case.The simple point being that after having such a comfortable position at Xmas we rid the one stop slide to a relegation battle. Based on form we should have gone down, plain and simple.Now, I for one am behind Hoots, next season will be his first proper season as he has had Lamberts squad and a few additions of his own. He can now start moving forwards with his players and his formations.If Man City and WBA show us two things they are theseA) Hoots can set up an attacking formation when he wants and he needs to trust his players moreB) We actually have a good squad of lads so you cant point fingers at anyone, 90% the dead wood is gone now and whats left is quality.[/quote]

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[quote user="Matt Juler"]If I was talking about the whole season I''d include all 38 games but I''m not, that''s my point!  In my mind the last two games have painted a false picture of the second half of the season, but very few people seem to appreciate this logic.
[/quote]

 

That could apply to virtually any "sequence"

 

For example, if we took all the games that John Ruddy played in and extrapolated that across the whole season we would have ended up in 8th on 53 points (21 points in 15 games = 1.4 points per game over 38 games = 53 points. How different our season could have been IF John Ruddy hadn''t been injured.

 

The bottom line is that we ended up where we ended up based on our performance over 38 games - not a selection of games, nor a sequence of games, but 38 games, warts and all!

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[quote user="Matt Juler"]If I was talking about the whole season I''d include all 38 games but I''m not, that''s my point!  In my mind the last two games have painted a false picture of the second half of the season, but very few people seem to appreciate this logic.[/quote]You''re unbelievable. How does winning your last 2 games create a false impression?If we''d won lots more games since Christmas but then lost our last two, would you be claiming that the last two games gave the false impression of a poor 2nd half of the season?Every game is worth the same.

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quote user - Matt Juler "If I was talking about the whole season I''d include all 38 games but I''m not, that''s my point!  In my mind the last two games have painted a false picture of the second half of the season, but very few people seem to appreciate this logic."

Hardly paints a false picture, our form changed in the last 2 games, just like how form fluctuates over 38 games for any team. Teams go through good spells and bad spells. Also, I''d argue it actually changed over the last 5 games, we gained 3 wins in 5 games and were unlucky to lose against Villa imo.

Also, the last 2 games demonstrated how well this team can perform with our backs against the wall. We are made of sterner stuff. You cannot ignore that. It''s part of the bigger picture of this football club. No false picture being painted there at all!

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It''s clear I''m not going to win this argument, but lets just put it this way...How many supporters were concerned about relegation on the 1st Jan 2013, I''d say very few.Now how about 1st March, 1st April and 1st May, the evening of the 4th May after we lost at home to Villa?  I''d bet my bottom dollar that the proportion of City fans concerned about relegation increased at all of these dates, it''s only after Swansea beat Wigan on the 8th that the trend would have reversed.I am incredibly happy with how we played against WBA and Man City, it''s great to see us playing some decent attacking football, but my concern is how we approached games 20-36 of the season.  That''s what I''m trying to discuss, that''s what I''m concerned about. 

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So the season is only 17 games long for you, interesting....

And as I said, the last 2 games demonstrated what this team can do under pressure, you can''t ignore that, it''s all part of the bigger picture.

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[quote user="Matt Juler"]It''s clear I''m not going to win this argument, but lets just put it this way...How many supporters were concerned about relegation on the 1st Jan 2013, I''d say very few.Now how about 1st March, 1st April and 1st May, the evening of the 4th May after we lost at home to Villa?  I''d bet my bottom dollar that the proportion of City fans concerned about relegation increased at all of these dates, it''s only after Swansea beat Wigan on the 8th that the trend would have reversed.I am incredibly happy with how we played against WBA and Man City, it''s great to see us playing some decent attacking football, but my concern is how we approached games 20-36 of the season.  That''s what I''m trying to discuss, that''s what I''m concerned about.  [/quote]

 

I can think of two for sure, although I am not certain whether one of them counts as a supporter, that being Chris Hughton.

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Matt - in a past life, I analysed data for a living.

The data I am going to focus on for the next 3 months is (are!) beating Man Utd (champions) , Man City, Arsenal, Everton, scaring the arse of Spuds, stuffing West Brom, away win at Swansea. All contributing to the 44 points. So did draws with Newcastle, Fulham, Reading, QPR etc etc

You focus on what data you want to.

I am going to say that we are unbeaten in 17 days, and that will increase greatly over the next 3 months.

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[quote user="Matt Juler"]I am incredibly happy with how we played against WBA and Man City, it''s great to see us playing some decent attacking football, but my concern is how we approached games 20-36 of the season.  That''s what I''m trying to discuss, that''s what I''m concerned about. 
[/quote]

 

I think your concerns have already been addressed - JR is back in the building! He was the "influence" at the back which gave the others the confidence to go forward. I don''t think his loss can be over-stated. Two games back, 2 wins, 7 goals for, 2 against!

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