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Making Plans

Latest relegation odds

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My worry is the Arsenal game. Almost certainly going to lose it.

Sunderland match cold go either way, if they win we will really be in the mix. Imagine the panick and critism on this board, my god!!

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The panic and criticism is hardly misplaced though, is it? We will be in the mix for a very good reason. Poor form, results and management. Not sure how many can argue against that.

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[quote user="ron obvious"]Are those the odds from different bookies?

Looks like they all put us least likely to go down out of the bottom 7.[/quote]
Yes they are from different bookies. And we are the longest odds of the bottom 7 but they are shortening steadily.
I am sure somebody else will say it but they do not reflect what the bookies think but the value of bets placed. To me that is even more of a concern as it reflects the collective opinion of a substantial number of people who are prepared to put their money where their mouth is.

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Heard the unemployed Colin on the radio yesterday saying that we could save Sunderland''s bacon by going down. Doesn''t like us much does he?

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[quote user="ron obvious"]Are those the odds from different bookies?

Looks like they all put us least likely to go down out of the bottom 7.[/quote]What''d ya have to go and spoil it for? [:D]

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[quote user="dpit"]Heard the unemployed Colin on the radio yesterday saying that we could save Sunderland''s bacon by going down. Doesn''t like us much does he?[/quote]

 

I can''t say I blame him after our pillaging of Elland Road''s finest. In truth, he should mainly resent Villa more as it was all mostly PL''s doing, including Snoddy in all probability. 

 

According to him, the loss of Robert Snodgrass cost him a promotion push.

 

Chick

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Bookies odds are not strictly an indication of likeliness (see Grand National) it''s more an indication of where the most money is being bet.

If we are high odd to go down it just means very few people have bet on us, it does not indicate that we are that unlikely to go down, the bookies would love it now if we went down, I imagine it would mean a very small payout for them.

The fact of the matter is we are 4 points off the drop, our form is dire and there is every chance of us going down.

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Looks like it''s a screenshot from Oddschecker. Each column is a different bookie, the odds in pink indicate drifting, the odds in blue shortening. As you can see the bookies think we have not too much to worry about.

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[quote user="Joanna Grey"]As you can see the bookies think we have not too much to worry about.[/quote]

That is so not how it works...

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"If we are high odd to go down it just means very few people have bet on us, it does not indicate that we are that unlikely to go down, the bookies would love it now if we went down, I imagine it would mean a very small payout for them. "

What a load of crap. Do you think that punters would dismiss us out of sentiment? People make their living off gambling, if they thought there was a good chance of us going down they would lump on it. A neutral professional gambler would have a better view of the relegation battle than a ardent fan of one of the ''at risk'' clubs.

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"That is so not how it works... "

Of course it is. You are taking the oft-repeated and simplistic view that the more money being placed on a bet the lower the odds. It certainly does not work like that - Bookmakers ''make'' the odds by manipulation of various factors not just the money placed.

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[quote user="Row D Seat 7"]Colin is right. We could save Sunderland''s bacon. I don''t think we will win again this season.[/quote]

 

It''s quite conceivable that we can stay up without winning again all season.

 

 

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Quote Row D Seat 7 - "Colin is right. We could save Sunderland''s bacon. I don''t think we will win again this season."

Please, somebody nuke Row D Seat 7 at the Reading match so we can be spared of such negativity in the future.

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[quote user="Joanna Grey"]"That is so not how it works... "

Of course it is. You are taking the oft-repeated and simplistic view that the more money being placed on a bet the lower the odds. It certainly does not work like that - Bookmakers ''make'' the odds by manipulation of various factors not just the money placed.[/quote]

The bookies make the odds to suit them and their profit margins, nothing more nothing less, but if you want to clutch at straws for an indication of our survival then go ahead, I''ll stick to the real indicators such as us winning a game.

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[quote user="Joanna Grey"]"That is so not how it works... " Of course it is. You are taking the oft-repeated and simplistic view that the more money being placed on a bet the lower the odds. It certainly does not work like that - Bookmakers ''make'' the odds by manipulation of various factors not just the money placed.[/quote]

No, I''m sure you are wrong there Joanna.  When bookies open the book for the PL title next season, all the teams will be at exactly the same odds for the title, while the bookies wait to see who people are putting their money on.  That''s how it works isn''t it?  [:P]

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Relegation odds provided in Racing Post don''t even include City. Got my £50 on relegation, £600 would sweeten the pill, don''t expect to pick up. Recent punting experience poor in the extreme so winning would be a shock. We will not be relegated however anxious you are getting.

Keep the faith if you can''t support the team then just KEEP Away.

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Wrong ! it mainly reflects what the bookies think,yes the price has got shorter but due to not winning not big bets. Put ten grand on norwich saturday and the odds wont lower.

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quote user "Row D Seat 7" "@ Josh

You want to be spared of negativity? Don''t watch a Chris Hughton team play football would be my advice to you. Cheers"

I went on Saturday, and apart from the first 30 minutes I thought it was a good game, with good attacking football in the 2nd half. I certainly didn''t leave feeling I''d have a bunch of negativity inflicted upon me.

Again, at Sunderland, I thought we played well!

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Saturday, we could and should have won considering we need the points. Swansea don''t.

So many dropped points where we should''ve won the game:

QPR home 1-1, West Ham home 0-0, Newcastle home 0-0, Southampton home 0-0, Fulham home 0-0, Reading away 0-0, Wigan away 1-0, Swansea home 2-2.

Out of the above 24 points were available. We picked up 7 points. Not good enough. Soooooo many dropped points that could''ve been wins with a bit more positivity, which is ironic considering many Norwich fans constantly talk about being positive. Yet with a bit more positivity we could have 40+ points by now.

1 win in 15.

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"Saturday, we could and should have won considering we need the points."

So we have a divine right to beat Swansea? They''re a really good attacking side who have just won the league cup. A draw was a fair result.

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[quote user="Row D Seat 7"]Saturday, we could and should have won considering we need the points. Swansea don''t. So many dropped points where we should''ve won the game: QPR home 1-1, West Ham home 0-0, Newcastle home 0-0, Southampton home 0-0, Fulham home 0-0, Reading away 0-0, Wigan away 1-0, Swansea home 2-2. Out of the above 24 points were available. We picked up 7 points. Not good enough. Soooooo many dropped points that could''ve been wins with a bit more positivity, which is ironic considering many Norwich fans constantly talk about being positive. Yet with a bit more positivity we could have 40+ points by now. 1 win in 15.[/quote]

 

Honestly, anyone would think we have "a right to win" against any team in the PL who are not one of the top 6!

 

I can see Man Utd and Arsenal and Everton fans all saying "we should have won considering we need the points" (for their title aspirations). We picked up 9 points there - I suppose those clubs "Row D Seat 7" type fans, were also complaining about dropped points! Maybe their supporters also felt they "had the right" to beat clubs like Norwich?

 

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