Relegation Predictions Revisited

[ricardo 7,347]

I posted this on 20th November

http://services.pinkun.com/forums/pinkun/cs/forums/2824274/ShowPost.aspx

Nothing much changed in 5 months has it? It''s looking pretty much odds on that the 3 relegated teams will be from the 5 I picked then. Only Southampton seem to have gained a measure of comfort.Those pushing the Harry Houdini theme seem to have gone very quiet of late.[:(]

[Icecream Snow 761]

Well it is Wigan. 22 points from their last 10 games last year. However this time I think the cup final is going to cost them.

[AJ 1,218]

Obviously anything can still mathematically happen, but I''d say Fulham and Southampton are as good as safe now, a few points for us will see us safe too.

Reading and QPR are as good as down for me, no way are either of them going to win all of their remaining games.

Newcastle certainly aren''t out of the woods yet, Sunderland and Stoke are level on points, and bowing out of Europe may well drop a few heads.

I agree Wigan might have the cup on their minds, and if they lose heavily in the final it could either spur them on to survival, or make them crumble away.

Shows how tight the league is this year though, another couple of wins and we could be sitting in the top half.

[norfolkbroadslim 223]

Eh?  Spur them on to survival?  There are only 2 games left after the cup final for Wigan - away to Arsenal and home to Villa.

 

Southampton (1 point above us) are safe, but we still need a few points?[:^)]

 

Wigan have to get 2 wins and 1 draw from 3 of their remaining 5 games just to put them level on points with us now -

 

Spurs (home)

West Brom (away)

Swansea (home)

Arsenal (away)

Villa (home)

 

4 of these games are against top half opposition.  Wigan''s form this season against top half opposition is W1 D2 L13.

[norfolkbroadslim 223]

Just to add, one would probably say Wigan''s best chance against a top half side on paper would be home to Swansea.  However, the Swansea game falls 3 days after the trip to West Brom and 4 days before the Cup Final.

[Shankslad 0]

I don''t know if this is true but I heard that over the past few seasons every team that play Wigan on the last day got relegated - any staticians out there able to shed any light on this claim?

 

[Rudolph Hucker 0]

As I said on another thread I did the predictor and found I had relegated Newcastle but if Wigan beat Villa on the final day illa went down on 38 points on goal difference.

[Branston Pickle 3,638]

Shankslad, I''m sure that stat is pants - a fewseasons ago, didn''t didn''tWigan need to beat (a safe) Stoke away to stay up, and manage it? I confess to not having been that interested as we were probably in Lge1!

[ncfcstar 287]

AJ, QPR and Reading could be down on Monday, and one if not both will be relegated next weekend as they play each other. But I think we all know they''re both doomed.

I think its between villa and the Wigan now, that final game of the season is getting bigger and bigger. We could have a big say in its importance come the end of our game v villa in a couple of weeks.

[AJ 1,218]

Wigan seem to be playing now, they looked very unlucky today against West Ham. It would be rather fitting if we could beat Villa to send them into massive trouble!

[morty 0]

I would literally soil my britches with glee if we relegated Villa!But my head says Wigan.

[Branston Pickle 3,638]

It would be really rather good if there was a ''loser loses all'' game on the final weekend, in Wigan v Villa. We obviously need to be sure we aren''t in the mix, but there''s surely enough sides + gap between us and Wigan for us not to be overtaken by all of them

[norfolkbroadslim 223]

We will be safe by the last day of the season.

 

With 1 game to go if Villa are 1 point behind us and Wigan 2 points behind us or vice versa or any permeation worse than that we are safe.

 

Villa losing to Man U on Monday is a distinct possibility.  They are then at home to a resurgent Sunderland.  If they fail to beat Sunderland, they are then under massive pressure in their final 3 games to save their season starting with away to Us.  They are then home to Chelsea, before they travel away to Wigan on the final day.

 

If Villa were to pull off a massive shock and beat Man U, I''m not sure whether that would be the disaster it seems.  Wigan (albeit with a game in hand) would be looking up the table with 5 games to go, 6 points behind their nearest rivals!

 

Obviously, ideally you''d take a Man U victory, then either a draw for Villa against Sunderland or a Sunderland win the following weekend.

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

It has been clear for most of the season that we have little risk of being relegated. After the shaky start to the season, we have never been in the bottom five since October 27th and even after January we have never been lower than 14th.

Fortunately, the Board are made of steelier stuff the the pantswetters and didn''t blow a huge wedge of money in panic buying in January - as some wanted. Now we can start building for next season on our own terms. RVW shows us the right way to do business. 

[......and Smith must score. 1,335]

[quote user="AJ"]

.....

Reading and QPR are as good as down for me, no way are either of them going to win all of their remaining games..[/quote]True. They play each other next Sunday.

[ZLF 271]

Survival has never been in doubt - only the quality of our performances has been the worry.

 

A big summer coming up and a chance to improve that central midfield area enormously with a couple of quality signings

[Move Klose 303]

And a hopefully a decent left back and another striker