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Shaun Tilly Lace

Do we already have enough points for safety?

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I''m going to stick my neck out here and say that 38 points beats the drop, so we will being playing in the Premiership again next season, regardless of what happens from now on. 37 points means you are going down. What do you all think? How many points equals safety?

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When i did the predictor I had Stoke going down on 37 and you''d have to be on 38 to be safe. All depends on Wigans form but I reckon we''ll be fine on 38. Another win though will confirm it.

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Wigan need to beat 2 and draw 1 these games to draw level...

Spurs (H) Draw at best.

WBA (A) Draw at best

Swansea (H) Win

Arsenal (A) draw at best

Villa (H) Win.

Possibly 9 points in total. Meaning we need 1 more win to be safe!

 

 

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Please predict how many points bring a safe conclusion to the season, and the exact number of points for that dreaded 3rd relegation spot. Let''s see who is the Nostradamus who gets their prediction spot on.

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At the moment no not enough for safety as all teams below us except Reading and QPR can overtake City.

Safety will be when there are 3 teams who cannot overtake City''s points. Do I think 38 enough maybe but another 3 will give more comfort.

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...and there will come a season when a team in blue will no longer be able to escape, while in a great city rivals will come to blows but neither in the end will emerge victorious...

 

There''s no way Nostradamus would be pinned down to an actual points prediction or anything specific, why else does he still get attention ?

 

My guess is the 3rd relegated team will have 38 points so safe on 39 or 38 with a better goal difference.

 

Also I like the fact that going into the final game we only need to have a 1 point and a 2 point margin above Wigan/Villa who will be playing each other for our game at the Etihad not to matter.

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Playing with the predictor 38 may be enough but think 1 point which is more than likely from the next 3 games should do it. 3 points from the next 3 games which would be par after a couple of good performances would more or less guarantee it.

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[quote user="I am a Banana"]

Wigan need to beat 2 and draw 1 these games to draw level...

Spurs (H) Draw at best.

WBA (A) Draw at best

Swansea (H) Win

Arsenal (A) draw at best

Villa (H) Win.

Possibly 9 points in total. Meaning we need 1 more win to be safe!

 [/quote]

I just can''t see Wigan getting the 7 points they need to get level with us on 38 points from these fixtures, especially considering they need to play 2 of them midweek, as well as the distraction of the FA Cup final.

5 points at best for me, meaning 37 points is enough to stay up.

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[quote user="The ghost of Michael Theoklitos"][quote user="I am a Banana"]

Wigan need to beat 2 and draw 1 these games to draw level...

Spurs (H) Draw at best.

WBA (A) Draw at best

Swansea (H) Win

Arsenal (A) draw at best

Villa (H) Win.

Possibly 9 points in total. Meaning we need 1 more win to be safe!

 [/quote]

I just can''t see Wigan getting the 7 points they need to get level with us on 38 points from these fixtures, especially considering they need to play 2 of them midweek, as well as the distraction of the FA Cup final.

5 points at best for me, meaning 37 points is enough to stay up.

[/quote]

In which case hope for a win at Stoke to settle it then

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A lot depends on the mindset of the players, they don''t need to believe they are safe but they could play better with less pressure.

I don''t want to give Stoke a lift or see them overtake us. We are good enough to get something from that game which in turn will put us in the ideal position when playing Villa who I hope fail to beat a resurgent Sunderland.

I want to pay Lambert back for his league cup fist pumping. In addition we owe it to the league to do our best and a Wigan/Villa winner takes all final game is ideal.

West Brom are beatable and with a couple of good results we can finish mid-table and a lot of prize money better off.

Switch off, put ourselves back under pressure and I think you''ll find one or two sides will pull off unexpected wins and be in a position to catch us.

There is a lot of work to do yet, beginning Saturday. But, beat Stoke and we really can bring a party mood to games and go for it.

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The question is who will go down with QPR and reading essentially, as they will have to break all reords,- winning all games, to beat the drop.Even then they could finish with only 36 points, so they would rely on Wigan not gaining more than 5 points from their last five games and Villa achieving only 3 in their last four games.

 

So mathematically Reading and QPR could survive, but it is very unlikely. We are safe from the threat of Reading and QPR.

 

So we must avoid position number 18, currently occupied by Wigan. They have five games left - Spurs H, WBA A, Swansea H, Arsenal A, and Villa H. If they achieve six more points or less than we achieve in our last four games, we are safe from their threat. I can see them picking up 8 points more, at least, if they continue to play as well as they have. They could win any of the remaining games.

 

Villa are on 34 points, and need to win just two of their remaining games to overhaul our present total. They have Chelsea and Sunderland at home, and us and Wigan away.

 

Stoke are on 35 points, one win behind us, as they have a vastly better goal difference. They have us H, Sunderland A, Spurs H and Southampton A. Next Saturday is all important for them, - possibly their easiest remaining game.

 

Newcastle, Stoke and Sunderland are just one point less than us, with four games to play. These are a real threat to overtake, if we stumble.

 

So, we are safe from Reading (- thanks to Saturday) and QPR. If we win one more game or draw three we shall be virtually safe from Wigan - they would have to win four out of five. If we can beat Villa, then they would have to win all their remaining games to overtake us, including the one at Wigan!

 

The short answer to the question is "no", we are not safe yet from all other teams. If we let ourselves down, then all except Wigan could overtake us easily. Even a win for us on Saturday would fail to make us fully safe, but would improve our chances. Those immediately below us with one point less could overtake us even if we draw.

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[quote user="The ghost of Michael Theoklitos"][quote user="I am a Banana"]

Wigan need to beat 2 and draw 1 these games to draw level...

Spurs (H) Draw at best.

WBA (A) Draw at best

Swansea (H) Win

Arsenal (A) draw at best

Villa (H) Win.

Possibly 9 points in total. Meaning we need 1 more win to be safe!

 [/quote]

I just can''t see Wigan getting the 7 points they need to get level with us on 38 points from these fixtures, especially considering they need to play 2 of them midweek, as well as the distraction of the FA Cup final.

5 points at best for me, meaning 37 points is enough to stay up.

[/quote]

 

West Brom and Swansea have really tailed off in the past few weeks, not a huge surprise considering their seasons effectively ended a while back. Not impossible for Wigan to win both those games, especially Swansea at home - which would mean a draw or victory over Villa gets them the 7 points require to acheive 38. Although the effect of an FA Cup Final is impossible to predict, could work in their favour or against them.

 

I can''t see Norwich losing the next 4 games though, although it is a little worrying that players were dancing on the pitch after the Reading game and an ''end of season'' atmosphere was evident. Hopefully a week of running about in the sun at training will remind them that the relegation battle is far from over.

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[quote user="Salopian"]So we must avoid position number 18, currently occupied by Wigan. They have five games left - Spurs H, WBA A, Swansea H, Arsenal A, and Villa H. If they achieve six more points or less than we achieve in our last four games, we are safe from their threat. I can see them picking up 8 points more, at least, if they continue to play as well as they have. They could win any of the remaining games.[/quote]...at least, if they continue to play as well as they have - You mean 1 point from their last 3 league games.And you think 8 points from their last 5 games, when 2 of those games involve teams playing for Champs League spots?I know they went on a run this time last year, but lightning never strikes twice ''n all that. Maybe I''m being too optimistic, but I just can''t see it.

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Though you need to consider that 3 of those teams have something to play for making that 7pts gap look increasingly hard 2catch.

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[quote user="Bethnal Yellow and Green"][quote user="The ghost of Michael Theoklitos"][quote user="I am a Banana"]

Wigan need to beat 2 and draw 1 these games to draw level...

Spurs (H) Draw at best.

WBA (A) Draw at best

Swansea (H) Win

Arsenal (A) draw at best

Villa (H) Win.

Possibly 9 points in total. Meaning we need 1 more win to be safe!

 [/quote]

I just can''t see Wigan getting the 7 points they need to get level with us on 38 points from these fixtures, especially considering they need to play 2 of them midweek, as well as the distraction of the FA Cup final.

5 points at best for me, meaning 37 points is enough to stay up.

[/quote]

 

West Brom and Swansea have really tailed off in the past few weeks, not a huge surprise considering their seasons effectively ended a while back. Not impossible for Wigan to win both those games, especially Swansea at home - which would mean a draw or victory over Villa gets them the 7 points require to acheive 38. Although the effect of an FA Cup Final is impossible to predict, could work in their favour or against them.

 

I can''t see Norwich losing the next 4 games though, although it is a little worrying that players were dancing on the pitch after the Reading game and an ''end of season'' atmosphere was evident. Hopefully a week of running about in the sun at training will remind them that the relegation battle is far from over.

[/quote]Don''t we also play the recently tailed off West Brom? [;)]

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[quote user="Salopian"]

The question is who will go down with QPR and reading essentially, as they will have to break all reords,- winning all games, to beat the drop.Even then they could finish with only 36 points, so they would rely on Wigan not gaining more than 5 points from their last five games and Villa achieving only 3 in their last four games.

 

So mathematically Reading and QPR could survive, but it is very unlikely. We are safe from the threat of Reading and QPR.

 

So we must avoid position number 18, currently occupied by Wigan. They have five games left - Spurs H, WBA A, Swansea H, Arsenal A, and Villa H. If they achieve six more points or less than we achieve in our last four games, we are safe from their threat. I can see them picking up 8 points more, at least, if they continue to play as well as they have. They could win any of the remaining games.

 

Villa are on 34 points, and need to win just two of their remaining games to overhaul our present total. They have Chelsea and Sunderland at home, and us and Wigan away.

 

Stoke are on 35 points, one win behind us, as they have a vastly better goal difference. They have us H, Sunderland A, Spurs H and Southampton A. Next Saturday is all important for them, - possibly their easiest remaining game.

 

Newcastle, Stoke and Sunderland are just one point less than us, with four games to play. These are a real threat to overtake, if we stumble.

 

So, we are safe from Reading (- thanks to Saturday) and QPR. If we win one more game or draw three we shall be virtually safe from Wigan - they would have to win four out of five. If we can beat Villa, then they would have to win all their remaining games to overtake us, including the one at Wigan!

 

The short answer to the question is "no", we are not safe yet from all other teams. If we let ourselves down, then all except Wigan could overtake us easily. Even a win for us on Saturday would fail to make us fully safe, but would improve our chances. Those immediately below us with one point less could overtake us even if we draw.

[/quote]

 

So mathematically Reading and QPR could survive ....... eh ?  One, only one, of Reading and QPR could survive

 

Stoke are on 35 points ....... errrrr

 

If they achieve six more points or less than we achieve in our last four games, we are safe from their threat. .......... what ?

 

Our job is to finish as high up the table as possible, that''s all

 

 

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Hopefully we will get at least one more win this season. It would be nice to beat Villa, WBA and Stoke, all 3 are far from my favourite teams. We certainly owe Stoke and WBA a beating, as we seem to have had some pretty poor form against them in recent years.

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Probably but if in doubt, it''s very unlikely that we''re going to lose all four of our remaining games. We''ll finish on at least 39 or 40 - maybe even as much as 47!

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Earlier in the season i would have banked on 38 being enough. The form of the bottom 2 has collapsed and the group of 4 or so above them have been picking up pints on a regular basis. I may be enough but i doubt it particularly given our poor GD. I would be more confident with another 2 points on the board

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[quote user="Yorkshire Canary"]Earlier in the season i would have banked on 38 being enough. The form of the bottom 2 has collapsed and the group of 4 or so above them have been picking up pints on a regular basis. I may be enough but i doubt it particularly given our poor GD. I would be more confident with another 2 points on the board[/quote]Exactly my thoughts Yankee. 2 more points will do it, maybe just 1.However I''m still sticking by my pre-season forecast of 43 points. It won''t be far out.

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Can a team desperate for survival claim 7 out of 15 potential points? Yes.

Can a team desperate for survival claim many more than 7 points from 15? Unlikely.

 

Is it likely that Norwich City will lose all 4 of their remaining fixtures? NO

 

Will 38 points be enough? Unlikely

Will Norwich end up with 38 points? Unlikely.

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[quote user="Highland Canary"]On 38 points we''d go down on goal difference to Wigan... so I think 39 will do it.[/quote]^^^ This

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I think Ricardo''s been spot on with his prediction and i think 43 is best case scenario, but i can''t see us not achieving a minimum of one more draw and we will almost certainly reach 40 points. There''s always if''s and buts but we are as good as safe now barring a series of very unfortunate (for us!) and unlikely results.

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It''s written in the stars. Sunderland, Stoke and Newcastle will (at least) get the one win each that takes them to 40 points, with their goal differences ensuring safety.We will draw with Stoke and WBA and lose to Villa, taking us to 40. Villa will beat us and Sunderland and lose to Chelsea, putting them on 40. Wigan will lose to Spurs and Arsenal but beat WBA and Swansea taking them to 37.And on the final day we lose at Man City and Wigan beat Villa, and we all congregate on 40, and it comes down to goal difference between us and Villa...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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