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Has anyone recently done the BBC predictor?

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Going on recent form and others recent form it''s close between us and Sunderland, we stay up by 2 points! That''s with us beating Reading and drawing with WBA or Villa, my point went on WBA given Villa are on a decent run.

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Having just honestly done it, I had us only beating West Brom, drawing with Reading and Stoke, losing the rest and we still stay up. Even if I change the West Brom to a draw we are still above Stoke and Sunderland.

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Just had a go and had the bottom three remaining as Reading, QPR and Wigan. I think I may have been a bit harsh on Wigan though, I didn''t have them scoring anymore points!!!

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I''ve done it about 20 times and the only way we will go down is if there is a freaky run of results so that all of Sunderland, Stoke and Wigan pick up more points than we do, all from much harder games. Stoke realistically have only one game they "should" win (us at home), Sunderland and Wigan don''t have any. We have at least two (Reading & Villa at home) and we are 4 points ahead.

I just don''t see any way we will go down unless we completely implode and lose every game - which isn''t going to happen.

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I''ve not done any of these predictors as they are inevitably wrong, people seem to have a tendency to be harsh on our results and less so on others - before Sunderland I recall people insisting we''d get no more points until Reading yet we got a draw in the next game.

I can''t see us losing more than 3 more games, and will probably get 5pts in the others. I do still think the bottom three will be QPR, Reading and one of Wigan or Sunderland - people keep going on about Wigan but they have been riding a lot of recent luck (eg Newcastle, that non-sending off + blatant handball in winning goal, last minute draw v ten man QPR, fortunate win v us IMO) and that may run out - they have some tricky games to come...extra time +/or an injury or two on Sat and they will start to falter (let''s hope!).

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Yes.I posted this last week, how do yours compare?

1 Man Utd                           96

2.Man City                          78

3.Arsenal                             75

4.Spurs                                 73

5.Chelsea                            72

6.Liverpool                          62

7.Everton                            61

8.West Brom                      54

9.Fulham                             52

10.Swansea                        45

11.West Ham                     45

12.Norwich                         41

13.Southampton               40

14.Aston Villa                     39

15.Stoke                              37

16.Newcastle                     37

17.Sunderland                   33

18.QPR                                 33

19.Wigan                             33

20.Reading                          24

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I done -

Arsenal A - Lose

Reading - H - Win

Stoke City - A - Lose

Aston Villa - H - Draw

West Brom - H - Win

Manchester City - A - Lose

And we have 42 points and are easily fine.

I had Wigan and Sunderland on equal points for the third relegation spot but Wigan went down on goal difference!

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I can''t see any point in predictions.

 

Who would have predicted that we would beat Arsenal and United,

Southampton would beat Man City and Chelsea,

QPR would beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and draw with Man City,

Aston Villa would beat Liverpool at Anfield and draw with Arsenal,

Wigan would beat Spurs at White Hart Lane and win 5 out of their last 6 games in 2011-2012 including victories over United and Arsenal?

 

This is a bonkers part of the season - teams like Villa and Wigan fighting for their lives, us and Stoke nervously clinging on, Reading and QPR soon just playing for pride and mid table sides either on the beach already or playing with enough freedom to showboat and take more risks.

 

 

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I had a go but only up to the last game of the season when we play Man City, Sunderland are away to Spurs and Wigan play Villa.

The senario was we were 3pts ahead of Wigan and 1 point ahead of Sunderland.

Sunderland had a better goal difference but needed a point to catch us and Wigan were 5 goals worse off than us and needed 3 points.

This could be a very nervy day if it happens.

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[quote user="Row D Seat 7"]Because Reading have 23 points. We have 35.[/quote]But a number of other teams have fewer points than us and yet you predict they will finish above us...[8-)]

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[quote user="Cantiaci Canary"]

I can''t see any point in predictions.

 

Who would have predicted that we would beat Arsenal and United,

Southampton would beat Man City and Chelsea,

QPR would beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and draw with Man City,

Aston Villa would beat Liverpool at Anfield and draw with Arsenal,

Wigan would beat Spurs at White Hart Lane and win 5 out of their last 6 games in 2011-2012 including victories over United and Arsenal?

 

This is a bonkers part of the season - teams like Villa and Wigan fighting for their lives, us and Stoke nervously clinging on, Reading and QPR soon just playing for pride and mid table sides either on the beach already or playing with enough freedom to showboat and take more risks.

 

[/quote]This

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Predictions do have a point if they are based on probabilities. On that basis I see City getting at least 5 points (40) and Wigan and Sunderland struggling to get 6 or 7 (37-38). As they play each other, I can''t see both reaching more than 38 points. Wigan also have severe fixture congestion due to the FA Cup (2 matches in-hand, Man City and Swansea, after this week-end).

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I''ve just done it for the remaining games I have

1 win

3 draws

2 defeats

Which would see us finish in 14th with 41 points with Reading, QPR and Stoke relegated.

 

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10.Fulham                        43

11.Stoke                           43

12.West Ham                  43

13.Swansea                    42

14.Newcastle                 39

15.Norwich                      39

16.Aston Villa                    39

17.Sunderland   (-15 GD)    35 

-----------------------------------

18.(R) Wigan      (-26 GD)         35

19.(R) QPR                             29

20.(R) Reading                          27

I cant see Wigan, let alone Sunderland picking up many more points. Ive been honest and given us 4 points for the remaining features: one win (Reading @ FCR) and one draw (Vile @ FCR). Feel free to knock me if i''ve been too harsh or unrealistic [A]

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OK up above the parapet again. The good news is that a point vs Arsenal would see us staying up on goal difference from Villa if all the other results were to finish as predicted!

 

The

trouble with these predictors is than you can produce really depressing

scenarios which might see us relegated on 39 points (potentially on goal

difference with Sunderland if they were to say draw but not beat Everton).

Clearly, the results for us vs Stoke and Villa are crucial.

 

In the scenario

below if we were to win either of these two games it would see Stoke or Villa

then finishing in 18th. It is undeniably tight at the bottom. Assuming we beat

Reading the team in most trouble is probably Sunderland. In other words, I view their run of results as the most difficult to achieve of all the teams at the bottom. I hope they don''t get anything from Newcastle at the weekend.

 

13. Soton 37 (46) win

vs West Ham, Swansea, Stoke

14. Sunderland 31 (41) win vs Everton, Stoke,

Southampton draw vs Villa

15. Wigan 31 (41) win vs West Brom, Swansea, Villa;

draw vs West Ham

16. Stoke 34 (40) win vs QPR, Norwich

17. Villa 33 (40) win vs

Norwich, Fulham; draw vs Sunderland

18. Norwich 35 (39) win vs Reading; draw vs

West Brom

 

QPR, Reading relegated

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[quote user="Highland Canary"]

The

trouble with these predictors is than you can produce really depressing

scenarios

[/quote]The trouble with knives is you can use them to stab people.The trick is to not stab people.Do you see what I mean?

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As my mum always used to say when playing patients, if you cheat you are only cheating yourself! See ?

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I do Mister Chops. We''ll beat Villa and the doomsday scenario of a Villa defeat at Wigan on the last day of the season, seeing us relegated, is avoided. But that scenario is another happy half hour on the BBC predictor.

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