May need Wigan to blunder to survive

[Mr Brownstone 0]

[quote user="nutty nigel"]

I have. Time and time again. Including the one about QPR where I stated it''s just as likely that with pressure off they could show a bit more of their potential. It''s just as likely as your scenario that they will be easy pickings. But you don''t see it because it''s different to your POV. Not twisted but a different opinion. Live with it Brownie.

 

Just to add that a lot more would be made of how relegated QPR could suddenly become a difficult game if it was us playing them. Just as WBA would be mid-table with nothing to play for if Wigan were playing them. At the end of the day I prefer to be positive.

 

[/quote]

 

I wouldn''t say that questioning why I''m posting on a thread, then denying it, is questioning my opinion in an adult manner, but if you say so.

That''s your opinion on the Newcastle v QPR fixture and that''s fine. My opinion is that Newcastle will be targetting it as the game that gets them to safety. By the same token, live with it Nutty.

 

 

[nutty nigel 7,513]

[quote user="Mr Brownstone"][quote user="nutty nigel"]

I have. Time and time again. Including the one about QPR where I stated it''s just as likely that with pressure off they could show a bit more of their potential. It''s just as likely as your scenario that they will be easy pickings. But you don''t see it because it''s different to your POV. Not twisted but a different opinion. Live with it Brownie.

 

Just to add that a lot more would be made of how relegated QPR could suddenly become a difficult game if it was us playing them. Just as WBA would be mid-table with nothing to play for if Wigan were playing them. At the end of the day I prefer to be positive.

 

[/quote]

 

I wouldn''t say that questioning why I''m posting on a thread, then denying it, is questioning my opinion in an adult manner, but if you say so.

That''s your opinion on the Newcastle v QPR fixture and that''s fine. My opinion is that Newcastle will be targetting it as the game that gets them to safety. By the same token, live with it Nutty.

 

 

[/quote]

 

I can live with it quite easily Brownie. But I prefer a positive spin. What have I denied now? The only point I made about you posting on another thread was that the other posts were about who to replace our to be sacked manager with. By the same token I like the purple crazy sour skittles the best. Want one Brownie?

 

 

[Sussexyellow 55]

[quote user="Mr Brownstone"][quote user="morty"][quote user="Mr Brownstone"]

[quote user="morty"]

I doubt VERY much Wigan will get another 6 or 7 points.

[/quote]

 

Hope you''re right. Would be fantastic to go into the final home game pressure free and get the inflatables out again!

[/quote]

4 points at best, Wigan are where they are because they are pony, they aren''t going to suddenly turn into Real Madrid.
[/quote]

 

Tell that to the team who''s finished in 18th the past 4 seasons :-)

 

[/quote]

If it was not Wigan I think we would all be agreeing with you Morty but there escapology feats are legendary. I hope you are right though even though I still think we really do need to focus on getting our own points. Yes our points haul since Xmas has been dire but its still very much in our own hands.

Brownstone as Wigan have two games after we play our final home game we will need to get something from the Villa game if you are to get your wish to bring out the inflatables.

OTBC

[Sussexyellow 55]

their not there!!!

Apologies and where is the edit button!

[Mr Brownstone 0]

[quote user="Sussexyellow"]

If it was not Wigan I think we would all be agreeing with you Morty but there escapology feats are legendary. I hope you are right though even though I still think we really do need to focus on getting our own points. Yes our points haul since Xmas has been dire but its still very much in our own hands. Brownstone as Wigan have two games after we play our final home game we will need to get something from the Villa game if you are to get your wish to bring out the inflatables. OTBC

[/quote]

 

Deep breath...

 

If we beat Villa we''ll be 4 points ahead with 2 to play, and their last game is against Wigan. Beating Villa would also mean we''d be a minimum of 6 clear of Wigan with them having 3 left, they''d have to win 2 and draw 1 to overtake us, assuming we lost to WBA and Citeh. If they did that it would mean the draw would have to come against Villa (otherwise Villa couldn''t catch us) meaning Villa would need to beat Chelsea for them to draw level with us. Unlikely that Villa will beat Chelsea, Wigan will beat Arsenal and they draw with each other on the last day.

 

3 points Saturday and it''s party time against WBA.

 

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

[quote user="morty"]I doubt VERY much Wigan will get another 6 or 7 points.[/quote]

 

morty, you think a team that was leading in-form and highly motivated Spurs until added time has very little chance of beating two out of WBA, Swansea and Villa?

[morty 0]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"]

[quote user="morty"]I doubt VERY much Wigan will get another 6 or 7 points.[/quote]

 

morty, you think a team that was leading in-form and highly motivated Spurs until added time has very little chance of beating two out of WBA, Swansea and Villa?

[/quote]I think that very equaliser will have cast a wee bit of doubt into their minds.And we all know hoe fragile confidence is at this time of the season in our teams positions.And everyone is telling me how Swansea are the new Barcelona and Villa are now the new Real Madrid after last night.So, no chance[;)]

[Yellowbeagle 0]

We dont need Wigan to blunder, we need to do our own job in our last two home games. We''ve picked up more points at home this season than we did under Lambert and we still have two games to go.

[......and Smith must score. 1,336]

It''s funny how supporters of almost any club at the wrong end of the table often think their club is doomed. If I was a Wigan fan it would certainly be justified. both centre halves out for the season plus the distraction of an FA Cup Final ( even though if they lose they''re still guaranteed European football. It''s a big ask for them to get out of this oneSunderland fans must be nervy too. They lost their top scorer - Steven Fletcher - weeks ago and now probably Sessegnon for the remainder of the season. A six goal hammering yesterday hardly improves confidence either. Their run-in though is similar to ours with two decent looking home fixtures.Newcastle fans are sweating even though their '' winnable '' run-in is similar to ours. Trouble is both those games are away. After the humiliation of a 0-3 reverse against the Black Cats they''ve just been hit for six. At home too.Villa had that huge win yesterday but they know that they need to beat us this week as they''ll likely lose at home to Chelsea. Then, unless Wigan are already gone, it''s all down to the perfect nightmare at the DW.Even Southampton must be nervous facing both Spurs and Sunderland away. They must be banking on something at home to Stoke if all else failsAs for Norwich, with two reasonable home games to come and a healthy points advantage over Wigan, it''s not surprising the bookies have us as favourites to stay up.Of course we can''t relax but when it all pans out I wouldn''t be too surprised to find that we''ve already got enough points for Premier League football next term.

[Cantiaci Canary 556]

The only way I can cope with this agonising end to the season is to stop looking forward and predicting the ifs and buts and to just look at the current league table. You can''t worry about future fixtures and form as all sorts of unpredictable things happen - QPR beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, Southampton beat Chelsea and Man City, we beat United and Arsenal this season!

I can quite easily see Wigan beating Arsenal and losing the rest and us only picking up points against Man City!

 

At the moment we should be pleased being two wins away from Wigan. Breathe easy until you have a new league table to assess at 5pm on Saturday.

[Mister Chops 7]

Wigan have taken 32 points from 34 games.  12 of those in the last 10 games.Do we need them to "blunder", or just to play to current form?Current form says 5 points from 4 games would be slightly overachieving.Wigan "blundering" would be to lose all remaining games, surely?

Interestingly, and on a related note, why is it when the teams around us play mid-table sides it''s a bad thing because the mid-table teams have "nothing to play for", and yet when we play mid-table sides it''s a bad thing because the mid-table teams have "no pressure on them"?

[Bill 1,788]

Wigan have four more games

 

In the corresponding games we picked up one point, yet Wigan are presumed to be picking up six or seven times more than that amount otherwise they are ''blundering''.

 

It will also be Wigans failings that ''save us'' rather than the fact that the number of points we have accumulated have been down to us - or maybe there is some bizarre calculation that means every time Wigan drop a point we are awarded a point,

[Yellow Bird 0]

[quote user="Salopian"]

For the first time I begin to worry about the immediate future. Everybody else, except Newcastle and Sunderland to some extent, are reviving and we are not. We are not the team we were earlier in the season, and now with Turner and possibly Bassong out....

I would go further and say that after Saturday''s goal attempt lacking, I wonder if we shall gain any further points this season. In which case it''s looking grim, and we really have to hope that Wigan stumble and the teams from the North East also go pointless. The best hope is that Wigan stumble, but at times recently they have played very well. They certainly have some outstanding players, and are capable of upsets.

 

Sorry to be so pessimistic at last, but last Saturday, injuries and Villa''s massive win are all disturbing.

[/quote]

Call me pessimistic, but that''s how I feel right now and agree with you.

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

[quote user="morty"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]

[quote user="morty"]I doubt VERY much Wigan will get another 6 or 7 points.[/quote]

 

morty, you think a team that was leading in-form and highly motivated Spurs until added time has very little chance of beating two out of WBA, Swansea and Villa?

[/quote]I think that very equaliser will have cast a wee bit of doubt into their minds.And we all know hoe fragile confidence is at this time of the season in our teams positions.And everyone is telling me how Swansea are the new Barcelona and Villa are now the new Real Madrid after last night.So, no chance[;)][/quote]

 

We shall see. If - for the sake of pantwetting argument - we lose to Villa on Saturday and Wigan get a draw against WBA then I would put our chances of staying up at not that much better than 50-50. Perhaps 60-40. If Wigan were to win then about evens we go down.

[morty 0]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="morty"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]

[quote user="morty"]I doubt VERY much Wigan will get another 6 or 7 points.[/quote]

 

morty, you think a team that was leading in-form and highly motivated Spurs until added time has very little chance of beating two out of WBA, Swansea and Villa?

[/quote]I think that very equaliser will have cast a wee bit of doubt into their minds.And we all know hoe fragile confidence is at this time of the season in our teams positions.And everyone is telling me how Swansea are the new Barcelona and Villa are now the new Real Madrid after last night.So, no chance[;)][/quote]

 

We shall see. If - for the sake of pantwetting argument - we lose to Villa on Saturday and Wigan get a draw against WBA then I would put our chances of staying up at not that much better than 50-50. Perhaps 60-40. If Wigan were to win then about evens we go down.

[/quote]I''m really not thinking that far ahead, I am happy for it to just play out. I tend not to worry about things I can have no influence over.And frankly pretty much anything could happen.

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

[quote user="morty"][quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="morty"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]

[quote user="morty"]I doubt VERY much Wigan will get another 6 or 7 points.[/quote]

 

morty, you think a team that was leading in-form and highly motivated Spurs until added time has very little chance of beating two out of WBA, Swansea and Villa?

[/quote]I think that very equaliser will have cast a wee bit of doubt into their minds.And we all know hoe fragile confidence is at this time of the season in our teams positions.And everyone is telling me how Swansea are the new Barcelona and Villa are now the new Real Madrid after last night.So, no chance[;)][/quote]

 

We shall see. If - for the sake of pantwetting argument - we lose to Villa on Saturday and Wigan get a draw against WBA then I would put our chances of staying up at not that much better than 50-50. Perhaps 60-40. If Wigan were to win then about evens we go down.

[/quote]I''m really not thinking that far ahead, I am happy for it to just play out. I tend not to worry about things I can have no influence over.And frankly pretty much anything could happen.[/quote]

 

How do you square the insouciant "not thinking ahead" bit with the previous confident prediction that Wigan won''t get X number of points?! I know this is the Internet, morty, and I am an old-fashioned chump for expecting anything remotely resembling a consistent view from one post to the next. But isn''t that volte-face just a teeny bit blatant even for a football message-board?[;)]

[Redders Right Foot 22]

So if the OP is to be believed. if Villa beat us, they will lose to wigan on the last day?

wigan are 6 points (and2 GD worse off) behind us, I can not see them getting 6 points from 4 games when they have to play 5 games (in all comps) in 15 games. it avrgs a game every 3 days, and they will be hard done by it.

[morty 0]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="morty"][quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="morty"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]

[quote user="morty"]I doubt VERY much Wigan will get another 6 or 7 points.[/quote]

 

morty, you think a team that was leading in-form and highly motivated Spurs until added time has very little chance of beating two out of WBA, Swansea and Villa?

[/quote]I think that very equaliser will have cast a wee bit of doubt into their minds.And we all know hoe fragile confidence is at this time of the season in our teams positions.And everyone is telling me how Swansea are the new Barcelona and Villa are now the new Real Madrid after last night.So, no chance[;)][/quote]

 

We shall see. If - for the sake of pantwetting argument - we lose to Villa on Saturday and Wigan get a draw against WBA then I would put our chances of staying up at not that much better than 50-50. Perhaps 60-40. If Wigan were to win then about evens we go down.

[/quote]I''m really not thinking that far ahead, I am happy for it to just play out. I tend not to worry about things I can have no influence over.And frankly pretty much anything could happen.[/quote]

 

How do you square the insouciant "not thinking ahead" bit with the previous confident prediction that Wigan won''t get X number of points?! I know this is the Internet, morty, and I am an old-fashioned chump for expecting anything remotely resembling a consistent view from one post to the next. But isn''t that volte-face just a teeny bit blatant even for a football message-board?[;)]

[/quote]It was nothing more than a best guess, exactly the same as everyone else is doing lol.Truth be told I have got bored with thinking and talking about it now.

[peter-plastic 0]

I don''t read every post on every thread, so sorry if I''m stating what everyone has realised already. Saturday 4:55pm is the first conceivable point where we could be safe. I almost daren''t mention it, but if Wigan ''blunder'' (lose) and we win on Saturday, we''ll have done it - no one can touch us. Nice and comfortable - mathematically safe.Only one of Villa or Wigan could possibly overtake us, but courtesy of the fact they would still have to play each other, not both.  

 Even if Villa win at FCR and are safe before the last game, I still think they''ll be ''up'' for Wigan. They''ll want to finish as high as possible, and I''m sure some of their management team (IC at least) wouldn''t want to see us go down.

I hope this isn''t a scenario that will materialise during saturday''s crunch game at CR, but how will PL react if Villa score / take the lead / equalize ?  Given the stakes and the importance of the game, do you think he''ll celebrate in the same manner he did against Sunderland, or do you think he''ll do that dignified, controlled, almost apologetic celebration, that returning players tend to do when they return to clubs where they''re still loved and score. I almost find those subdued ''respectful'' celebrations, à la RVP at the Emirates, scringeworthy. I almost wish they''d just go crazy and celebrate wildly - just for the hell of it. Hope we are all nice to PL on Saturday, though, whatever te provocations fromte Villa fans, just in case we need a favour from them come Survival Sunday.  

[Bill 1,788]

check the bonus he recieved from us last season - much of which must have been based around our league position at the end of the season

 

guess whether any similar bonus at Villa will be the same or more

 

then have a good guess at what might be his reaction to various events on Saturday in the light of that knowledge

 

 

[Yelloow Since 72 54]

It''s certainly possible that Wigan could win 3 out of 4 games, but I think any bookie would give generous odds against it, which is why City are 16/1 to survive. The pressure will grow on Wigan, who have to play 4 matches and a Cup final within 15 days. That''s a big ask for any team, IMO. They don''t have to stumble, just not produce a miracle. Hats off to them if they can.

[pete 318]

OP here only read page 6, I agree original post was posted due to concern having supported City for 30 years and been disappointed for most of that time so a little pessimism is acceptable.

I agree an unlikely scenario re Wigan but until we win Saturday I will remain concerned.

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

[quote user="morty"]It was nothing more than a best guess, exactly the same as everyone else is doing lol.Truth be told I have got bored with thinking and talking about it now.[/quote]

 

In that case, morty, I won''t tax you with detail. But there is a perfectly plausible scenario that starts off with us losing to Villa and Wigan getting a point at WBA and ends with us and Wigan on 39 points and us getting relegated on goal difference. And it doesn''t require Wigan to win three out of four, but to win two (their home games) and that draw. If we lose to Villa and Wigan beat WBA it gets horribly plausible.

[morty 0]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"]

[quote user="morty"]It was nothing more than a best guess, exactly the same as everyone else is doing lol.Truth be told I have got bored with thinking and talking about it now.[/quote]

 

In that case, morty, I won''t tax you with detail. But there is a perfectly plausible scenario that starts off with us losing to Villa and Wigan getting a point at WBA and ends with us and Wigan on 39 points and us getting relegated on goal difference. And it doesn''t require Wigan to win three out of four, but to win two (their home games) and that draw. If we lose to Villa and Wigan beat WBA it gets horribly plausible.

[/quote]You''re just being mean now, and upsetting the pant wetters.[;)]

[Zak Van Burger 0]

Would I be oversimplifying these convoluted doomsday scenarios were I to suggest that we might actually win one of our remaining games?

[Jim Smith 2,314]

I think the level of nervousness is due to the fact that for some time some of the more negative amongst us have seen this scenario playing out whereby events and other results conspire to punish us for our miserable efforts in the 2nd half of the season. Holts missed pen, the ref at Sunderland, Wigan being gifted points by Halsey and Camp, Villa winning at Stoke and stuffing Sunderland. It just had the feel that if we end up having to rely on others failings to stay up then that may not end well as all of those others seem to have the ability to pull out a result from time to time. The one match/result recently which has made me feel a bit better about things was Wigan v Spurs as if events were truly conspiring against us as some of us fear Wigan would surely have held out for a win and not conceded an unlucky own goal. One could take the fact they did as a positive sign that the gods are on our side this season!

Of course the best thing to do would be to take luck, fate and other events out of the equation and just win a bl**dy game!

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

[quote user="morty"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]

[quote user="morty"]It was nothing more than a best guess, exactly the same as everyone else is doing lol.Truth be told I have got bored with thinking and talking about it now.[/quote]

 

In that case, morty, I won''t tax you with detail. But there is a perfectly plausible scenario that starts off with us losing to Villa and Wigan getting a point at WBA and ends with us and Wigan on 39 points and us getting relegated on goal difference. And it doesn''t require Wigan to win three out of four, but to win two (their home games) and that draw. If we lose to Villa and Wigan beat WBA it gets horribly plausible.

[/quote]You''re just being mean now, and upsetting the pant wetters.[;)][/quote]

 

You think the pantwetters have problems? My staff have no idea whether to stock up with the good champagne[D] or the middling stuff that gets served to guests I want to get rid off...[;)]

[Highland Canary 76]

@ Jim Smith.

Quite.

[morty 0]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="morty"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]

[quote user="morty"]It was nothing more than a best guess, exactly the same as everyone else is doing lol.Truth be told I have got bored with thinking and talking about it now.[/quote]

 

In that case, morty, I won''t tax you with detail. But there is a perfectly plausible scenario that starts off with us losing to Villa and Wigan getting a point at WBA and ends with us and Wigan on 39 points and us getting relegated on goal difference. And it doesn''t require Wigan to win three out of four, but to win two (their home games) and that draw. If we lose to Villa and Wigan beat WBA it gets horribly plausible.

[/quote]You''re just being mean now, and upsetting the pant wetters.[;)][/quote]

 

You think the pantwetters have problems? My staff have no idea whether to stock up with the good champagne[D] or the middling stuff that gets served to guests I want to get rid off...[;)]

[/quote]Tricky.Get the good stuff in, to retain your non-pantwetty status.[;)]

[ZLF 271]

Just 3 wins in 19 games,  with just 17  goals scored and a GD -13 of - should be enough to have anyone concerned,   esp when the quality of football remains poor and reflects that run.

 

Even a win on Sat still leaves us with 3 wins in half a season,  which is simply inadequate.

 

However we will get at least one drawer from the next couple of games