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Indy

Something tells me we are in for bigger changes than most fans think this summer.

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As many on here I don''t believe we will be relegated, we only need a draw against Villa if Villa onl draw or lose tonight, (we only nee to be 1 points clear of both Wigan and Villa for us to stay in this division as long as our goal diff is better than on of theirs).

 

But I don''t see us signing Kamara, I think even Becchio might be shown the door this summer. I get thi impression that this is not Hughtons squad and I am sure that there are players who will be shown the door for the sake of their own career as well as freeing up space for Hughtons players.

 

I know there are lots of threads on who we would like to sign, but after the last few weeks it''s clear that Hughton has no time for Fox, Jackson, Barnett, Vaughan, Ayala, Martin, Butterfield, Becchio (Panic swap as Morison wanted to leave and we needed to freshen the strikers.) but i don''t think it will be the end of it, I would not be supprised if we don''t lose a player or two who will raise a few eyebrows.

 

As for another lacklustre performance, Charlie Adams summed it up for me and the reaction of the players last week shore up his comment:

 

“Norwich will probably think they’re safe and I think that was the way they came here to play. But we’re just delighted to get the points and hopefully we can get maximum points over the next three games because it would be nice to finish it off in style.”

 

We should adopt that mantre and go out in style by going out to beat Villa & WBA.

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Most of the current squad were signed by Hughton, albeit at little cost during the last season.

Now this summer is completely different in that there is money available to spend.

Hughton has not been at clubs with millions available and we have not been in that position, not in my lifetime anyway, so yep a pretty big clear out and a busy summer ahead.

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I agree there will be significant change BUT we do need to keep the numbers up. There is no point showing half the squad the door aswe will not have the cash to replace them with better quality and the departures will not raise much cash. Obvious outs are  Barnett, Ayala, Jackson, C Martin, Tierney, Fox, Surman and possibly Holt i think that will be more than enough albeit  many of the remaining members of the squad are probably of championship standard[ Becchio, Butterfield, Tettey, Johnson, Howson, E Bennett] The departures outlined above probably would only bring in £5 or £6m but we would have other cash to spend after paying for RVW. I think we would want to sign garrido plus another LB. Kamara could go either way and on balance if cheap we could do worse than have him, his height and pace with better players around him could be  put to better use than this season. We desperately need some more pace in the side on one of the wings at least. another decent striker is a must and i dont think we have heard the last of Hooper. Better quality in Midfield both defencive and creative is a must. If we cover those positions i would be more than happy and we will have spent the TV cash that is coming our way

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Don''t get carried away! If we are relegated, then we shall not be able to attract many outstanding players to play in the Championship - it doesn''t have the drawing power. I thjink that money could be banked to some extent for later.

 

If, as we all desperately hope, we survive, so many of positions in the team need strengthening that we shall not be able to afford to strengthen them all, and buy out contracts, etc. We need one or two quick fullbacks, at least one good central defender, two or three very good central midfielders who can tackle and also create, possibly one winger and one or two strikers. That looks like something between 6 and 8 players. If we seek to sign on the cheap, then we shall finish with players not much better thah we have already.

We have to be looking at spending £5m upwards for players, maybe even £10m for an outestanding midfielder, and our wage bill will rise.

 

Money will not be limitless, and we need 3 or 4 players at least in the £5m to £10m bracket and a striker of £10m. That lot would cost us £25m upwards, and I can''t see it happening this summer.

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Why are the bookies stil a hell of a lot more confidant we''ll stay up than a large portion of our own fans?

All you people worrying, go stock some money on at 20/1 since we!re so crap.

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[quote user="Salopian"]

Don''t get carried away! If we are relegated, then we shall not be able to attract many outstanding players to play in the Championship - it doesn''t have the drawing power. I thjink that money could be banked to some extent for later.

 

If, as we all desperately hope, we survive, so many of positions in the team need strengthening that we shall not be able to afford to strengthen them all, and buy out contracts, etc. We need one or two quick fullbacks, at least one good central defender, two or three very good central midfielders who can tackle and also create, possibly one winger and one or two strikers. That looks like something between 6 and 8 players. If we seek to sign on the cheap, then we shall finish with players not much better thah we have already.

We have to be looking at spending £5m upwards for players, maybe even £10m for an outestanding midfielder, and our wage bill will rise.

 

Money will not be limitless, and we need 3 or 4 players at least in the £5m to £10m bracket and a striker of £10m. That lot would cost us £25m upwards, and I can''t see it happening this summer.

[/quote]

Not sure we need that many. We already have RVW. I would say on top of that we need another quick winger. A CM. A better back up CB and a left back.

Probably therefore 4 or 5 decent additions and we will do ok. Johnson or Tettey are fine in the defensive midfield role. The problem has always been finding the right player to play alongside one of them.

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This is about as reliable as Fox News cos it''s from a friend who was speaking to McNally, but apparently he said it''ll likely be 8-10 out and 8-10 in. I this helps with predicting your numbers....

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[quote user="Yorkshire Canary"]I agree there will be significant change BUT we do need to keep the numbers up. There is no point showing half the squad the door aswe will not have the cash to replace them with better quality and the departures will not raise much cash. Obvious outs are  Surman and possibly Holt i think that will be more than enough[/quote]What did Surman do to anyone?  His stats from last season are far superior to Howson''s this term for example.  Excellent backup for Pilks from the left wing and always good for a goal.  Passing far superior to the likes of Howson, BJ, Tettey and co.

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Surman can''t be that obvious an excellent backup for Pilks as CH would have played him there instead of switching Snoddy to the left wing.

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[quote user="Joanna Grey"]Surman can''t be that obvious an excellent backup for Pilks as CH would have played him there instead of switching Snoddy to the left wing.[/quote]Or it might be the fact that Surman is recovering from a knee op.....................

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And as I and others have already pointed out several times, Hughton has gone out of bhis way to praise Surman''s skillls and say that he has missed having him available. Since Hughton will be making the decision and not this forum, I''m expecting Surman to stay and be a bigger part of the squad next season.

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[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"][quote user="Yorkshire Canary"]I agree there will be significant change BUT we do need to keep the numbers up. There is no point showing half the squad the door aswe will not have the cash to replace them with better quality and the departures will not raise much cash. Obvious outs are  Surman and possibly Holt i think that will be more than enough[/quote]What did Surman do to anyone?  His stats from last season are far superior to Howson''s this term for example.  Excellent backup for Pilks from the left wing and always good for a goal.  Passing far superior to the likes of Howson, BJ, Tettey and co.[/quote]

Ahhhhhh "stats"Ahhhhhh "last season"

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[quote user="ncfcstar"][quote user="Joanna Grey"]Surman can''t be that obvious an excellent backup for Pilks as CH would have played him there instead of switching Snoddy to the left wing.[/quote]Or it might be the fact that Surman is recovering from a knee op.....................[/quote]And Surman is not a winger he''s a wide midfielder..

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[quote user="morty"][quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"][quote user="Yorkshire Canary"]I agree there will be significant change BUT we do need to keep the numbers up. There is no point showing half the squad the door aswe will not have the cash to replace them with better quality and the departures will not raise much cash. Obvious outs are  Surman and possibly Holt i think that will be more than enough[/quote]What did Surman do to anyone?  His stats from last season are far superior to Howson''s this term for example.  Excellent backup for Pilks from the left wing and always good for a goal.  Passing far superior to the likes of Howson, BJ, Tettey and co.[/quote]

Ahhhhhh "stats"Ahhhhhh "last season"[/quote]So what has Surman done this season to deserve the chop?  Been injured.  I just love the way Hughton''s uncritical devotees are willing to slag off any player not involved this season so easily.If Hughton was such a wonderful manager maybe his team could have rumbled up a shot on target against fellow strugglers Stoke and Wigan.  Well done he has done a decent job keeping us up, but Hughton is no more the messiah than David Fox.

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Returning to the OP, that is an interesting perspective.  I have tended towards the small but high quality change view but I can see that your alternative makes sense.  Get the changes done in one main effort and look to have a moree settled squad for a couple of seasons.

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[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"][quote user="morty"][quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"][quote user="Yorkshire Canary"]I agree there will be significant change BUT we do need to keep the numbers up. There is no point showing half the squad the door aswe will not have the cash to replace them with better quality and the departures will not raise much cash. Obvious outs are  Surman and possibly Holt i think that will be more than enough[/quote]What did Surman do to anyone?  His stats from last season are far superior to Howson''s this term for example.  Excellent backup for Pilks from the left wing and always good for a goal.  Passing far superior to the likes of Howson, BJ, Tettey and co.[/quote]

Ahhhhhh "stats"Ahhhhhh "last season"[/quote]So what has Surman done this season to deserve the chop?  Been injured.  I just love the way Hughton''s uncritical devotees are willing to slag off any player not involved this season so easily.If Hughton was such a wonderful manager maybe his team could have rumbled up a shot on target against fellow strugglers Stoke and Wigan.  Well done he has done a decent job keeping us up, but Hughton is no more the messiah than David Fox.[/quote]I don''t know, you tell me, you seem to have all the answers. Ah right, rather than provide depth to your point you''re now blethering on about shots on target.So how many shots on target has Surman had this season?

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You really can''t make a point based on 4 apps this season Morty/CJF...What I will point out is that Surman averages more shots per game than anyone (based on those 4 apps), and has the second best ''key passes'' per game, only just behind Snoddy (and joint with Wes).With a pass accuracy of 78% as well, he''s clearly one of the best and most effective distributors of the ball on our books, and if Fox does get moved on and we don''t sign a new central midfielder, we could do much worse than put Surman in that position IMHO.

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[quote user="Indy_Bones"]You really can''t make a point based on 4 apps this season Morty/CJF...What I will point out is that Surman averages more shots per game than anyone (based on those 4 apps), and has the second best ''key passes'' per game, only just behind Snoddy (and joint with Wes).With a pass accuracy of 78% as well, he''s clearly one of the best and most effective distributors of the ball on our books, and if Fox does get moved on and we don''t sign a new central midfielder, we could do much worse than put Surman in that position IMHO.[/quote]The point is in your opening line.4 appearances.How many has Fox had?As far as I know Surman hasn''t been injured the entire season, so I''m afraid its down to not doing enough in training to be picked by the manager, there really is nothing more complicated about it than that.So you''re saying I can''t use stats to prove a point, but you can?

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McNally''s comments about 8-10 out and 8-10 in are interesting. IMO, the outs are pretty much as noted, but I''m not sure Surman will be leaving. I''d say but the ''ins'' are harder to predict as a lot of those ''outs'' are not included in the current squad of 25. This may mean some younger quality players like Van Ginkel at 20 and the the Egyptian DM who has been mentioned who is also 20, and therefore not included in the 25. RvW, Garrido and even KK might also be classed as ''ins'', so that leaves further quality players at LB, CB, DM to reach 8 players in, with a possible striker and wide player as well. Could be interesting.

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[quote user="morty"]As far as I know Surman hasn''t been injured the entire season, so I''m afraid its down to not doing enough in training to be picked by the manager, there really is nothing more complicated about it than that.[/quote]He has been injured for MOST of the season.There have been approx 9 games between the end of Oct and beginning of Dec where he wasn''t selected for the squad, then he picked up his first knee injury which kept him out until the end of Jan (and he wasn''t match fit to play), he then re-injured his knee after making the bench against Fulham and that''s put him out for the season.So it really isn''t likely to be down to poor performance in training when he''s been injured for 2/3rds of the season...[quote]So you''re saying I can''t use stats to prove a point, but you can?[/quote]No, absolutely not (and it''s fair to point that out), but what I am saying is that based on the miminal info we can glean from those stats (and from previous seasons performances), he''s done ok in those games from a passing/distribution perspective and isn''t afraid to have a shot - attributes we''re badly missing in the centre of midfield at the minute...

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[quote user="Indy_Bones"][quote user="morty"]As far as I know Surman hasn''t been injured the entire season, so I''m afraid its down to not doing enough in training to be picked by the manager, there really is nothing more complicated about it than that.[/quote]He has been injured for MOST of the season.There have been approx 9 games between the end of Oct and beginning of Dec where he wasn''t selected for the squad, then he picked up his first knee injury which kept him out until the end of Jan (and he wasn''t match fit to play), he then re-injured his knee after making the bench against Fulham and that''s put him out for the season.So it really isn''t likely to be down to poor performance in training when he''s been injured for 2/3rds of the season...[quote]So you''re saying I can''t use stats to prove a point, but you can?[/quote]No, absolutely not (and it''s fair to point that out), but what I am saying is that based on the miminal info we can glean from those stats (and from previous seasons performances), he''s done ok in those games from a passing/distribution perspective and isn''t afraid to have a shot - attributes we''re badly missing in the centre of midfield at the minute...[/quote]My opinion, and we shall temper this with the fact that neither you nor I are football managers, a point most people here seem to forget on this forum, is that Surman has been consistently not quite good enough.Nearly but not quite. Brilliant on the odd occasion, but not often enough. Which is pretty much the same as you are saying if you look at what you posted. We''re answering our own questions here.Not quite good enough.

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Good original post there.

I think the biggest overhaul this summer will be our strikers. I think Jackson and Martin will certainly leave. I don''t think we will take Kamara (he just hasn''t done enough), I can see Holt leaving and like the OP, I could also see Becchio shipped out on loan or sold to a Championship club.

With RVW coming in I can also see us returning for Hooper. I think those two will be our first choice strike force next season, providing we play two upfront.

Perhaps a player from the league below too, someone like a Charlie Austin. I think we would be priced out of a move for someone like Rhodes who Rovers would want to sell for £8m+.

I could see someone like Elliott Bennett moved on to make way for Nathan Redmond. I could also see us making a move for Ince or Phillips at Blackpool.

Going to be an interesting summer and I think (if we stay up, which I think we will just scrape by in 17th place) we will push the boat out and sign several players which will, in part, be funded by several players leaving the club.

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Well to be fair Morty that statement could be for anyone of our players this season, Wes, one good game 5 where he never gets into a game, Tettey fantastic on his day, but then looks like a pub player with his distribution on other games and so on and so on for each player.

 

My main point to this thread is that we are all listing the probables and saying we need 5 quality players and I was one of those people, but I think there will be more out the door than we anticipate.

 

I think Tierney, Fox, Jackson, Becchio, E Bennett, Ayla, C Martin, Butterfield, Vaughan, Barnett and I think the two which might raise an eyebrow will be Wes and Holt.

 

Add to that I don''t think Kamara has done enough to get signed yet, maybe he will I don''t know and Gariddo is reported to be valued at 6 million if we want to turn the loan into a perm move, that is a bit ritch in my book and notice that Hughton has been leaving him out over the last few games.

 

Just think we are in for a bigger overhaul than I had hoped for, but I might be reading far too much into things.

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[quote user="Indy"]

Well to be fair Morty that statement could be for anyone of our players this season, Wes, one good game 5 where he never gets into a game, Tettey fantastic on his day, but then looks like a pub player with his distribution on other games and so on and so on for each player.

 

My main point to this thread is that we are all listing the probables and saying we need 5 quality players and I was one of those people, but I think there will be more out the door than we anticipate.

 

I think Tierney, Fox, Jackson, Becchio, E Bennett, Ayla, C Martin, Butterfield, Vaughan, Barnett and I think the two which might raise an eyebrow will be Wes and Holt.

 

Add to that I don''t think Kamara has done enough to get signed yet, maybe he will I don''t know and Gariddo is reported to be valued at 6 million if we want to turn the loan into a perm move, that is a bit ritch in my book and notice that Hughton has been leaving him out over the last few games.

 

Just think we are in for a bigger overhaul than I had hoped for, but I might be reading far too much into things.

[/quote]Yes, the point could be made about any player, but it is a point better made for a player who hasn''t been getting in the team.I think another point is that what if players don''t actually want to go? The old "I''ll stay and fight for my place" which really means "I am on good cash, why would I want to leave?"As I think will become very apparent at QPR, its not as simple as just moving people on you no longer want, for whatever reason.

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I think 12 or more will go and about 8 new signings. I assume that most of those currently out on-loan will be leaving or going back out on-loan.I would expect 1 or 2 new full-backs, 1 central defender, 2 central midfielders, winger, 2 strikers.

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That''s also a good point Morty, not sure who is out of contract this summer, thought that Jackson, C Martin and Barnett were out of contract.

 

I think the likes of Vaughan want to get out, would not be supprised to see E Bennett go back to Brighton or one of the new promoted teams.

 

But yep as for the rest it would be upto them to go, as you say. The difference to QPR is that most of the players we are talking about as not on much more than 15K a week at most, unlike the 80K + that QPR are paying.

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[quote user="Indy"]

That''s also a good point Morty, not sure who is out of contract this summer, thought that Jackson, C Martin and Barnett were out of contract.

 

I think the likes of Vaughan want to get out, would not be supprised to see E Bennett go back to Brighton or one of the new promoted teams.

 

But yep as for the rest it would be upto them to go, as you say. The difference to QPR is that most of the players we are talking about as not on much more than 15K a week at most, unlike the 80K + that QPR are paying.

[/quote]I don''t think any of us has the information required to accurately predict who will go and who will stay.Its a pity there are other factors as to why Vaughn doesn''t want to be here, as I would have him on the bench ahead of Jackson any day.Also, we do have to look to the future and consider the developmental properties of players like Butterfield and Ayala, its not all about the 25 man squad.Which is something we have suffered from terribly for a long time now, a lack of depth.So based on this I do wonder if less will leave than people think.

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i can''t see Butterfield leaving. with a summer break and a full pre season to get fully fit i can see him being a part of our squad next season. unlike Becchio, who appears to have been a panic buy, Butterfield was bought for the future as his injury pretty much ruled him out of contention for this season.

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[quote user="morty"]The point is in your opening line.4 appearances.How many has Fox had?As far as I know Surman hasn''t been injured the entire season, so I''m afraid its down to not doing enough in training to be picked by the manager, there really is nothing more complicated about it than that.So you''re saying I can''t use stats to prove a point, but you can?[/quote]Not doing enough in training!  Hilarious. Surman has been injured most of the season.  And based on what I have seen of him, he is a far superior player to Howson.  He scores goals and has a decent range of passing for starters.I reckon Howson must be the best trainer since Andy Hughes, because his lackluster performances week in week out can''t be the reason he keeps getting picked. Howson and Holt look like they are having a personal battle to be the most consistently inept performer this season.At least Holt had a good year last term out. Howson is going to be classed nowhere near good enough if he doesn''t started affecting games in a positive manner sometime soon.As for Hughton... honestly, to go to Stoke and line up like we are facing Barcelona....  Embarrassing for all concerned.

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[quote user="Yelloow Since 72"]McNally''s comments about 8-10 out and 8-10 in are interesting. IMO, the outs are pretty much as noted, but I''m not sure Surman will be leaving. I''d say but the ''ins'' are harder to predict as a lot of those ''outs'' are not included in the current squad of 25. This may mean some younger quality players like Van Ginkel at 20 and the the Egyptian DM who has been mentioned who is also 20, and therefore not included in the 25. RvW, Garrido and even KK might also be classed as ''ins'', so that leaves further quality players at LB, CB, DM to reach 8 players in, with a possible striker and wide player as well. Could be interesting.[/quote]

 

One of our major strengths over the past 3 seasons has been the "team ethos". If you go for wholesale change, you will alter the whole team dynamics.

 

I would say 8ish sounds about right. One of the comments that CH has oft lamented is the "lack of quality". He will be looking to saturate the squad with skillful, cultured players (which means that Surman will stay).

 

Current players that I think will have a future here include:

Grant Holt - for his club captaincy role (don''t under-estimate the value he brings to the club)

John Ruddy & Mark Bunn

Russell Martin, Seb Bassong & Michael Turner

Bradley Johnson, Alex Tettey, Andrew Surman, Anthony Pilkington & Robert Snodgrass

 

Those that are maybe''s

Steven Whittaker, Javier Garrido & Ryan Bennett

Elliott Bennett, Jacob Butterfield & Wes Hoolahan (outrage I know, but is he a luxury we can afford?)

Kei Kamara

 

That would leave space for RVW and about 7 more

 

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