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whistleblower

16/1 - relegation - get a grip everyone - it is most unlikely to happen

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Surprises do happen and there is a small chance we may be relegated - however, that is currently rated at 16/1 across most of the major bookmakers (18/1 on betfair).  Everyone is entitled to their opinion and you can factor in different variables and outcomes etc but people who are paid serious money to price up events and risk their firms money rate us as being 16/1 to be relegated.If you listened to people on this messageboard you would think we were facvourites for relegation instead of Wigan who are massively odds-on at 4/11 with some players.Save the heartache and get behind the team on Saturday to cheer us on! Alternatively, if you fancy Villa to beat us, Wigan to beat WBA and Swansea (as a couple of posters have postulated) - put 50 quid on the above and pick up your £900 pounds winning (2/1, 2/1, Evens)

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We will survive, Wigan will go down as the cup is on their minds, and I think Newcastle might not recover from sunderland loss to get another point so will be below us anyway.

I think what is more an issue is how we have played. If we were in this same situation under lambert (or played the same as him under a diff manager) I feel we would be a lot more forgiving, but its been pathetically dull and uninspiring hence the negativity (not doom and gloom).

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[quote user="whistleblower"]Surprises do happen and there is a small chance we may be relegated - however, that is currently rated at 16/1 across most of the major bookmakers (18/1 on betfair).  Everyone is entitled to their opinion and you can factor in different variables and outcomes etc but people who are paid serious money to price up events and risk their firms money rate us as being 16/1 to be relegated.If you listened to people on this messageboard you would think we were facvourites for relegation instead of Wigan who are massively odds-on at 4/11 with some players.Save the heartache and get behind the team on Saturday to cheer us on! Alternatively, if you fancy Villa to beat us, Wigan to beat WBA and Swansea (as a couple of posters have postulated) - put 50 quid on the above and pick up your £900 pounds winning (2/1, 2/1, Evens)[/quote]

Surely £50 on us to go down at 18/1 is the simpler bet

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Wigna have to go to Arsenal and if you think that they will have a chance you have to remember that their ONLY defeat to a bottom half side was at carrow road. In fact the only other side to beat them outside the top 5 was Swansea.

So if you make the not too bold assumption that wigna will at the emirates they have a maximum points of 41. That''s only 1 win away from our points total.

If you look at their next game AWAY at west brom it''s not an easy fixture. Of WBA''s last six home fixtures they''ve only lost to Arsenal and Spurs. If WBA win at the weekend i''d say 38 points will be enough. If Wigna get a draw then then they will have an effective maximum points of 39 (making the assumption detailed above).

We only need to worry if we lose and Wigna win (a bet you can get 9/1 on).

Think on this, we will be effectively safe if we win and Wigna lose on saturday (even a draw for us wouldn''t be a bad thing)

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[quote user="whistleblower"] but people who are paid serious money to price up events and risk their firms money rate us as being 16/1 to be relegated.[/quote]

 

dearie, dear me

 

bookmakers price their odds on what bets are placed NOT some absurd idea of what they think will/might happen

 

we are 16/1 because that reflects how much money has been placed on us to be relegated - against how much has been placed on the other clubs

 

bizarre how simpletons still bleat this crap about ''the bookies must know something'' 

 

the only thing they know is that there are enough gormless idiots who will line their pockets through ignorance

 

 

 

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[quote user="City1st"]

[quote user="whistleblower"] but people who are paid serious money to price up events and risk their firms money rate us as being 16/1 to be relegated.[/quote]

 

dearie, dear me

 

bookmakers price their odds on what bets are placed NOT some absurd idea of what they think will/might happen

 

we are 16/1 because that reflects how much money has been placed on us to be relegated - against how much has been placed on the other clubs

 

bizarre how simpletons still bleat this crap about ''the bookies must know something'' 

 

the only thing they know is that there are enough gormless idiots who will line their pockets through ignorance

 

 

 

[/quote]You should have seen the odds on "City 1st replying on this thread with needlessly aggressive insults".

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The difference between todays races and the relegation from the premier league is that the horses race is run in a day but the football is a 9 month season. if you look at the betting for relegation before the season had started you would find that QPR were not favourites but norwich were one of the favourites. Things change over the course of the season and now we are not. You are not comparing like with like if you compared the favourites to finish first after 92% of the horse races were over then a much larger proportion of favourites will have won.

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[quote user="Warren Hill"]Know many poor bookmakers SYG?

Why do you reckon that is?[/quote]

I don''t personally know any bookmakers, rich or poor. However someone I know apparently bankrupted a couple of bookmakers around Brighton when he backed Frankie Dettori to win his 7 rides at Ascot in 1996.

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Wrong, wrong, wrong my friend. Your comments imply that if heavy money was lumped on Norwich, and very little on Wigan, then Wigan would now be 16/1. Absurd. The odds are based on the likelihood of an event happening - that''s why Wigan are 4/11 right now. Let''s say a brand new firm has just opened their relegation book and not yet taken a bet - the odds they give on each team will be close to how the market is already looking, otherwise they''ll be "filled in" big time on those teams where they''ve offered too big odds. I''d have £1000''s on Wigan at evens right now for sure.

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[quote user="Mr Angry"][quote user="Warren Hill"]Know many poor bookmakers SYG?

Why do you reckon that is?[/quote]

I don''t personally know any bookmakers, rich or poor. However someone I know apparently bankrupted a couple of bookmakers around Brighton when he backed Frankie Dettori to win his 7 rides at Ascot in 1996.[/quote]

Any bookmaker bankrupted by a 7 horse accumulator is a mug and frankly deserves to be bankrupt. After the third went in any competent bookie would be weighing up the liability and laying it off accordingly.

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[quote user="Warren Hill"]

Any bookmaker bankrupted by a 7 horse accumulator is a mug and frankly deserves to be bankrupt. After the third went in any competent bookie would be weighing up the liability and laying it off accordingly.[/quote]That''s exactly what happened Warren. When the fourth horse Decorated Hero won, the liability flags for the major off course high street bookmakers turned red. Liability managers started laying off their accumulators with the on course bookies which has the double effect of both mitigating losses and forcing the odds down. By the time the fifth horse won it was obvious to all that large amounts of money had to be sent into the ring. A bookie facing a payout of say £100k on the final horse which opened at 12/1could lay that off with approx £8k with the on course bookies, odds would also fall as the money was piled on. Business as usual for the bookies. The online bookmakers were possibly unaware that the endless stream of money for the final horse was being "sent in" and probably believed that the amount of money flowing in was a result of mug punters having a sentimental one off punt on FD winning the last race, in fact it was a combination of both factors which saw an incredible amount of money wagered on that final horse. The on course bookies could not believe their luck that all this money was coming in for an outsider previously calculated to be a 12/1 shot. Even when the odds dropped to 2/1 the money kept coming and coming.Then human greed took over: some of the on course bookies broke the golden rules of exposure, and failed to balance their books. They were convinced that the horse genuinely did have an outside 12/1 shot of winning which meant laying it at any odds of shorter than 12''s was effectively free money so they laid and laid and laid oblivious to the balance of their book. 2/1 drifted right out again....The off course bookies had laid off their accumulator liabilities onto the on course bookmakers some of whom were hugely exposed on the single race due to the sheer volume of money laid on an outsider. Said horse and jockey duly obliged, off course bookies who run liability management software and management departments were fully laid off. Mrs P. from Brighton who won £200k from Ladbrokes cost Ladbrokes just a few thousand pounds in the end but the photos of the cheques in the papers made it cheap advertising.The real losers were one or two independent off course bookies who didn''t perform liability management  correctly on accumulators and those of the on on course bookies who failed to balance their books and just laid everything that was offered them believing a 12/1 shot had no chance.It wasn''t the first six horses that bankrupted the bookies it was the seventh horse but not as people think via the accumulators but via the on course bookies who let the industry force the odds from 12/1 to 2/1 then got greedy and chased the seemingly endless influx of money by letting the odds drift out again. Those bookmakers who did go bump broke the biggest rule in bookmaking by becoming Punters themselves, gambling on the final horse losing as opposed to balancing the book. [:S]

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Interestingly newcastle sunderland and villa are all about 7-1

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[quote user="ZippersLeftFoot"]Interestingly newcastle sunderland and villa are all about 7-1[/quote]And Southampton who are currently just one place and one point above us are a whopping 80/1 implying that 39 points is "safe".

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[quote user="Zak Burger"][quote user="ZippersLeftFoot"]Interestingly newcastle sunderland and villa are all about 7-1[/quote]

And Southampton who are currently just one place and one point above us are a whopping 80/1 implying that 39 points is "safe".
[/quote]

 

Christ, don''t imply that on here, suggesting that 1 point from our remaining 3 games (RELEGATION FORM!!!) would probably be enough will get you branded as some sort of Hughton apologist...

 

 

 

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Pantwetter here so much that I''ve got £80 to win £1,000 if we go down, why because I''ve supported City so long I am used to being disappointed. As I haven''t had a winning bet since Cheltenham 2012 safety a pretty good bet.

Lose on Saturday and Wigan win relegation looking more a probability than a possibility. My pessimism meets with scorn by the cock eyed optimists but until we are safe I''ll stick with my caution.

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[quote user="City1st"]

[quote user="whistleblower"] but people who are paid serious money to price up events and risk their firms money rate us as being 16/1 to be relegated.[/quote]

 

dearie, dear me

 

bookmakers price their odds on what bets are placed NOT some absurd idea of what they think will/might happen

 

we are 16/1 because that reflects how much money has been placed on us to be relegated - against how much has been placed on the other clubs

 

bizarre how simpletons still bleat this crap about ''the bookies must know something'' 

 

the only thing they know is that there are enough gormless idiots who will line their pockets through ignorance

 

[/quote]i think the best thing about you city1st is that you talk about items you have absolutely no idea about - bookmaker odds do change to reflect to weight of money, however, when new prices are issued they reflect the CURRENT expectation.  So even you can understand i will explain in a simple example before and after the Villa/Sunderland gamepre-match - Wigan were 4/6 to be relegated.  post-match - Immediately after when no/immaterial new bets have been placed their relegation odds are 4/11.   pre-match - Sunderland 33/1post-match - 16/1 The new odds DO NOT reflect the existing book that the bookmaker holds - they reflect the expectation at that point in time. Please continue with posting your ill-informed drivel - you sir, are a troll of the worst order - pontificating falsely on items you know nothing about

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[quote user="City1st"]

[quote user="whistleblower"] but people who are paid serious money to price up events and risk their firms money rate us as being 16/1 to be relegated.
[/quote]

 

dearie, dear me

 

bookmakers price their odds on what bets are placed NOT some absurd idea of what they think will/might happen

 

we are 16/1 because that reflects how much money has been placed on us to be relegated - against how much has been placed on the other clubs

 

bizarre how simpletons still bleat this crap about ''the bookies must know something'' 

 

the only thing they know is that there are enough gormless idiots who will line their pockets through ignorance

 

 

 

[/quote]

Errrm, that''s b0110x. How do you think the odds are set prior to any bets being placed? Of course there are statisticians working out what odds to offer. Following the setting of initial odds, they may adjust according to bets placed, but initial odds are always calculated by some method or other. And you are calling other people simpletons???

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"You should have seen the odds on "City 1st replying on this thread with needlessly aggressive insults."

I am generally and easy going and tolerant type but my goodness does this City 1st feller get my goat.

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[quote user="CaptnCanary"][quote user="City1st"]

[quote user="whistleblower"] but people who are paid serious money to price up events and risk their firms money rate us as being 16/1 to be relegated.
[/quote]

 

dearie, dear me

 

bookmakers price their odds on what bets are placed NOT some absurd idea of what they think will/might happen

 

we are 16/1 because that reflects how much money has been placed on us to be relegated - against how much has been placed on the other clubs

 

bizarre how simpletons still bleat this crap about ''the bookies must know something'' 

 

the only thing they know is that there are enough gormless idiots who will line their pockets through ignorance

 

 

 

[/quote]

Errrm, that''s b0110x. How do you think the odds are set prior to any bets being placed? Of course there are statisticians working out what odds to offer. Following the setting of initial odds, they may adjust according to bets placed, but initial odds are always calculated by some method or other. And you are calling other people simpletons???

[/quote]

 

Indeed there are captn. And they''re called odds compilers. Ladbrokes were traditionally the most accurate in horseracing. If your bookie was offering considerably better odds than Laddies it would be assumed you had a "value bet". But of course the old nag still had to win.

 

Now imagine we were all odds compilers and had to price up the premier league third relegation place for the first time today. I reckon there''s a few on here would quote : -

1/5 Norwich

Evs Wigan

5/1 Newcastle

10/1 Sunderland

80/1 Southampton

100/1 Stoke

150/1 Villa because they''ve already got the Norwich points in the bank.

 

What say you Highland?

 

 

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Only evens for Wigan ?

 

Seriously though my concern about Wigan is looking back at last year - having been rubbish they went on an incredible run at the end, winning 5 out of 6, including wins over Man U and at Arsenal.  So to think they could win 3 out of 4 is certainly not impossible.  Unlikely but not impossible.  in both the Man C and Spurs games the general feeling seems to be they were unlucky.  Maybe they''re running out of luck this time.  And of course there are 3 other teams below us too.

For us the fitness of Bassong is vital.  If we win on Saturday that should do it, a draw is OK, but a defeat will certainly see those odds on us getting relegated shortening !

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If we win on Saturday and Wigan lose, Wigan can only match us on points and therefore finish above us on goal difference.Just focus on the Villa game, if we pick up a point or three, our odds should drift out as we''ll be on the 39 point mark.If results (WIGAN!) go our way and we pick up points, happy days. The bookmakers will probably take our prices down or give us a nice and stupid 100/1 or something.

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If we win Saturday and Wigan fail to win, we''re mathematically safe. Wigan could catch us but only by taking points off Vla so Villa couldn''t pass us, or vice versa.

Purple Canary has pointed this out on another thread but it hasn''t had much attention for some reason...

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[quote user="Its Character Forming"]If we win Saturday and Wigan fail to win, we''re mathematically safe. Wigan could catch us but only by taking points off Vla so Villa couldn''t pass us, or vice versa.

Purple Canary has pointed this out on another thread but it hasn''t had much attention for some reason...[/quote]

Probably because no-one thinks there is a chance in h*ll of it happening...[:D]

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