Interesting? reciprocal stats

baker · March 17, 2013

It has been well documented how well the team has done when

Steven Whittaker has started league games and how the team has had little

success when Johnny Howson has started league games. However the reciprocal

stats involved are probably more surprising.

Whittaker has started 9 games at right back in the league

and we’ve only lost 1 of those games and in that game he went off at half time

when the score was tied. In those 9 games we conceded 9 goals (1 goal per game)

and our goal difference was +4. Russell Martin has started 19 games at right

back and we have only won 2 of those, we have conceded 1.79 goals per game and

our goal difference in those games is -21.That’s quite a difference. Ryan

Bennett started one game at right back and we lost that too. Whittaker played 4

games with Ruddy behind him and 5 games with Bunn so that is not a factor plus

he played in the home win over Man U, the away win at Swansea and the away tie

at Everton so he wasn’t exposed to weak opponents. Also of note; in the games Whittaker played

we scored 1.44 goals a game as compared to 0.68 when Martin has started. To add

a little more perspective, of the 27 goals we have scored this season almost

half, 13, were scored when Whittaker started, that is in only 30% of the games.

This includes 3 of the 4 goals Snodgrass has scored, 3 of the 4 goals

Pilkington has scored and all 3 goals that Bassong has scored.

Howson has started 13 games in centre midfield and we have

won 2 of those and lost 7. In those games we have conceded 2.46 goals per game

(the season average is 1.55) and we have a goal difference of minus 20. That

means that in the 16 games that Howson hasn’t started we have won 5, tied 8 and

only lost 3. In those games we have conceded 0.81 goals per game, a full 1.65

goals per game less than when he has started and have a goal difference of +2.

But he adds offence you say. In Howson’s starts we have scored 0.92 goals per

game and when he hasn’t started we have scored 0.94, so essentially the same.

The player with the second best starting record after

Whittaker this season has to be our hugely influential centre back Seb Bassong

surely. Actually it’s not; it’s our much maligned captain Grant Holt. Our

record in the 22 games he has started is 7-10-5. That means in the 7 games that

Holt hasn’t started we have not won and have lost 5! Interestingly our goals

for stats per game are very similar if Holt plays or not but in the games he

has played we have conceded approximately 0.6 goals less per game than in those

he hasn’t started.

The only other player on the roster with a positive starting

record is Bassong (I don’t include the Newcastle away game as one of his games

as he left after less than 5 minutes). In the 25 games he has started we have a

record of 7-12-6 and have conceded 1.16 goals per game. We have lost all 4

games he has not played (if we include the Newcastle game) and have conceded an

average of 4 goals per game!! Of interest, when Bassong has played with Turner

we have an even playing record and have conceded exactly one goal per game.

Every other player on the roster that has played a decent

number of games has a negative playing record (albeit in most cases we have

lost just one more game than we’ve won), except for, you guessed it, Hoolahan

and ….Pilkington! Hoolahan has started 22 games and we have won 7 and lost 7 of

those games. That means that we have not won a game that he has not

started. Also interesting is that we

have only scored 4 goals in the 7 games that our Wesley hasn’t started. Even more obscurely we have conceded almost

twice as many goals per game when he hasn’t started (2.43 per game) than when

he has (1.27 per game).

This brings us to Pilkington who has been off form all

season if you pay attention to this message board. Pilks has started 21 games

and we have won 6 and lost 6 of those. That means that we have only won one of

the 8 games he hasn’t started and have lost 4. In those 8 games we have conceded

2.25 goals per game, almost a full goal more than the 1.29 goals we have

conceded when he has played. We have also scored 1.05 goals per game when he

has started as compared to 0.63 when he hasn’t.

I know these are just stats and only reflect games players

have started but as we all know our boy Chris doesn’t sub much before 88

minutes and doesn’t switch horses for courses either during games or for games

like our former manager used to, so I think they have some validity. Obviously

the playing formation, quality of the opposition and team momentum, among other

things, can affect player’s stats, but in the end it is the players that create

momentum, make playing formations work and beat the top teams.

Mister Chops · March 17, 2013

[quote user="baker"]