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Ha ya got a loight boy?

"A lot of fans think we're safe already"

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I''ve just read this in another thread (about a different subject) and it got me thinking, how many fans do actually think we are safe already?   I find it hard to believe that fans think we''re safe when the season still has eight games to go.    There is everything to play for and things could go well, or badly or a mixture of the two.      We are in a good position to stay clear of the drop zone, but its not cut and dried.     It made me think that I hope the players don''t think we''re safe, because any kind of complacency will lead to poor results.   There is still everything to play for.

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No we are not safe, I believe it will require 38 if not 40 points this year. There are some games coming up that we "should" get some results in but until the points are on the board there is still a chance of slipping back into the fight.

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We are obviously not mathematically safe.

 

Are we realistically safe?  I believe so and I find it hard to believe that you, Highland and others seem to spend so much time creating worse case apocalyptic scenarios to scare yourselves and then try and scare the rest of us.   I''ve always thought 38 points was enough.  Arry thinks 37 will do it.   Every team in the Prem will get at least 5 points fron the last 9 games.  It would be unprofessional incompetence not too.  Even Peter Grant, hell even Bryan Gunn could keep us up from here.

 

As for the players, let me put an alternative point of view.  If they are not stressed out worrying about highly unlikely scenarios, they may well play better.  relaxed, confident play can be as good as complacency can be bad.   Mistakes are more likely when players are stressed.  That is why the  recent nervous tension at Carrow Road is as dangerous as it is unecessary.

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I certainly don''t think it''s job done yet. I''m not sitting around in puddles of my own urine though, instead just enjoying inching towards being mathematically safe. There''s a difference between believing we''re already safe and starting to expect we will end up safe. I''m definitely expecting we will be safe fairly soon.

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[quote user="CambridgeCanary"]

We are obviously not mathematically safe.

 

Are we realistically safe?  I believe so and I find it hard to believe that you, Highland and others seem to spend so much time creating worse case apocalyptic scenarios to scare yourselves and then try and scare the rest of us.   I''ve always thought 38 points was enough.  Arry thinks 37 will do it.   Every team in the Prem will get at least 5 points fron the last 9 games.  It would be unprofessional incompetence not too.  Even Peter Grant, hell even Bryan Gunn could keep us up from here.

 

As for the players, let me put an alternative point of view.  If they are not stressed out worrying about highly unlikely scenarios, they may well play better.  relaxed, confident play can be as good as complacency can be bad.   Mistakes are more likely when players are stressed.  That is why the  recent nervous tension at Carrow Road is as dangerous as it is unecessary.

[/quote]Thumbs up.

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Not quite there yet,but would be nice to put a decent run together to gain more money for the transfer pot based on final league placing

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[quote user="ncfcstar"][quote user="CambridgeCanary"]

We are obviously not mathematically safe. Are we realistically safe?  I believe so and I find it hard to believe that you, Highland and others seem to spend so much time creating worse case apocalyptic scenarios to scare yourselves and then try and scare the rest of us.   I''ve always thought 38 points was enough.  Arry thinks 37 will do it.   Every team in the Prem will get at least 5 points fron the last 9 games.  It would be unprofessional incompetence not too.  Even Peter Grant, hell even Bryan Gunn could keep us up from here.  As for the players, let me put an alternative point of view.  If they are not stressed out worrying about highly unlikely scenarios, they may well play better.  relaxed, confident play can be as good as complacency can be bad.   Mistakes are more likely when players are stressed.  That is why the  recent nervous tension at Carrow Road is as dangerous as it is unecessary.

[/quote]Thumbs up.[/quote]

Of course we''re not mathematically safe.   But "realistically safe" ?   What does that mean?  There is no such thing as "realistically safe".    Surely we either are safe or we are not safe.   There is no middle ground.   We are on course to be safe, but only if we play well and pick up points.  Points are no guaranteed.  they have to be fought for.     Safe means mathematically safe, until we are mathematically safe there is still everything to play for.

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[quote user="Ha ya got a loight boy"][quote user="ncfcstar"][quote user="CambridgeCanary"]

We are obviously not mathematically safe. Are we realistically safe?  I believe so and I find it hard to believe that you, Highland and others seem to spend so much time creating worse case apocalyptic scenarios to scare yourselves and then try and scare the rest of us.   I''ve always thought 38 points was enough.  Arry thinks 37 will do it.   Every team in the Prem will get at least 5 points fron the last 9 games.  It would be unprofessional incompetence not too.  Even Peter Grant, hell even Bryan Gunn could keep us up from here.  As for the players, let me put an alternative point of view.  If they are not stressed out worrying about highly unlikely scenarios, they may well play better.  relaxed, confident play can be as good as complacency can be bad.   Mistakes are more likely when players are stressed.  That is why the  recent nervous tension at Carrow Road is as dangerous as it is unecessary.

[/quote]Thumbs up.[/quote]

Of course we''re not mathematically safe.   But "realistically safe" ?   What does that mean?  There is no such thing as "realistically safe".    Surely we either are safe or we are not safe.   There is no middle ground.   We are on course to be safe, but only if we play well and pick up points.  Points are no guaranteed.  they have to be fought for.     Safe means mathematically safe, until we are mathematically safe there is still everything to play for.

[/quote]How many points do you think we''ll pick up during the rest of the season?

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What is it with people getting facts thrown in their face so hard in one thread then feeling so aggrieved to start another one just to have the same happen again?

Reading and QPR are both 11 point''s behind us.

At this point they would need 12 points to over take us. 4 wins from 8 and for us to loose all of our remaining games. If we get a point in our next game and they fail to pick up any they will then need 5 wins from 7. It is as simple as that.

Or put in a better perspective, both of them are on 23 points after 30 games. They now need to get 12 points out of 24 available to over take us. Including games against much stronger teams challenging at the other end of the table to them for European spots. Sure there may be the odd upset, but they need four or five upsets - is it going to happen? It could, but you''d have to say it is unlikely.

That leaves Wigan who are 7 points behind us with a game in hand. Lets forget that the game is against Man City. Lets imagine they win that game. They then stand on 30 points. Only four points behind us needing two wins due to GD to overtake us.

However, there are also five teams between us and them, and they would be first in line to be overtaken. Sunderland have a very difficult run of 3-4 games and will have to play a lot better than they did against us to come away with much from them.

I think the reality is that people no that we are ''realistically'' safe from the bottom two spots and going on performances that they have seen we are by far the more consistent team in the bottom half of the table at the moment.

Obviously a couple of losses could drag us back into it a bit more, but at the moment we are not laying down, we are not getting pushed about by anything but the top teams.

Our game against Wigan is much like our game against Sunderland, they will see it as a must win, if we are patient in our approach to that game we will be able to pick them apart a bit.

I still stand by my view that we have arguably the best defense in the bottom half of the table. There are not many that I have seen this season that I would put in our team ahead of Turner and Bassong bar perhaps Samba and look how much he cost in transfer fee and wages. I also still feel that the next two to three games will make things a little bit clearer.

Of course if we beat Wigan we go ten points clear of them and their next game is Man City I think. They''ll be in the same boat as QPR and Reading now and need four wins from 8 games to overtake us if we score no more points.

So just to recap QPR need to win more times in the last 8 games than they have all season. Reading have won only once more with a total of 5 wins and realistically will need that many too, Wigan have won 7 games in 29 and again need at least half as many again in only 8 games.

Am I still concerned, ofcourse, until mathmatically safe there will always be that doubt at the back of your mind. I don''t think we deserve to go down. I also think at this stage it is incredibly unlikely QPR or Reading will be able to threaten our position so it really comes down to Wigan.

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I think we''re safe, not mathematically but tbh I wouldn''t be that surprised if 3 teams failed to reach 34 points from here. We''re safe because we will comfortably pick up enough points to keep us clear of the bottom three, the Sunderland game proved this, we were looking good for a win until Foy wanted a piece of the action but then away from home we not only came away with a point despite the injustices but we did it with some element of class. We were not "plucky little Norwich" in the face of that adversity, rather we outplayed for large periods of the game a Sunderland team who were at home, desperately needed to win and had an unusual amount of help from the officials to the extent that we actually had the better chances to win the game. Contrast our performance with that of Villas ten men behind the ball approach when they were down to 10 against us, that''s why they are where they are and we are where we are, it''s all down to faith in the defence, we have it in abundance, this allowed us to play higher up the field despite being a man short.We would probably need to lose a minimum of 6 or 7 or possibly all  8 of our remaining games to be relegated, cannot for the life of me see this happening.

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If we lose at Wigan we will be 4 points from relegation,the closest we''ll have been from the bottom 3 since September, with 7 games to go.

Include the fact that our goal difference isn''t favourable to anyone outside the bottom 4 and I can''t see how anyone can say we''re safe?

''If'' however we were to win at Wigan, you''d then be asking them to win 4 more games than us from the last 7 matches, so I think you could then say we''d just about be there.

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We are not safe, and we''ve dropped points in several games we SHOULD and COULD have won lately. We''re not playing well enough to "feel" safe yet. Still a lot of work to do

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There was a thread a month or so back where I said I thought our risk of relegation was about 5%.  As there are fewer games to play now and we are in 12th spot and 7 points above 18th, logically that risk should be a bit less now, although the fact that Wigan have just won and we go to them next is a concern because a defeat there reduces our safety margin to 4 points.  But I''d still say the risk is down at that sort of level.  Someone mentioned 16/1 betting odds being available which is about the same level.  16/1 shots do happen but obviously they''re very rare.

 

It''s noticeable that the people who have set out scenarios where enough clubs below us get enough points to overhaul us. all were assuming we lost most of the rest of our games in order to reach that outcome.  Which I don''t think is realistic given that our only defeat in our last 6 was at Man U.

 

Of course this assumes Hughton will keep the players focused and prevents complacency, which I have full confidence he will do.

 

It was noticeable last year that when we reached enough points that, although not mathematically safe, the risk became tiny, the team''s performances dropped off noticeably and we had days like Blackburn away when we just didn''t turn up.  I don''t think that''ll happen this year until we reach that same point.

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We''ve lost 10 games ALL SEASON, we''re not going to suddenly increase that by at least 50% over the next 8 games.

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I don''t believe we are safe, but can be with 5-6 more points, which we should get. If we don''t and are relegated, we would deserve to be - without a doubt.

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On cue.

We''ve had these discussions endlessly on other threads. Perceptions differ between individuals. The balance of probabilities suggest we are more likely than not to stay up but we should be mindful of our club''s history. I am in that tiny minority group of posters that believe we remain in danger. Having said that after going to the SoL on Sunday I wouldn''t wish to be a Sunderland fan at the moment.

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[quote user="Highland Canary"] ........I am in that tiny minority group of posters that believe we remain in danger.. ......[/quote]I reckon if we were 24 points clear with 8 games to play you''d be saying it could all hinge on goal difference.[:D]Have you ever enjoyed watching NCFC ?

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[quote user="......and Smith must score."][quote user="Highland Canary"] ........I am in that tiny minority group of posters that believe we remain in danger.. ......[/quote]I reckon if we were 24 points clear with 8 games to play you''d be saying it could all hinge on goal difference.[:D]Have you ever enjoyed watching NCFC ?[/quote]............has he ever WATCHED the Canaries?[:@]

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[quote user="star_manic"][quote user="......and Smith must score."][quote user="Highland Canary"] ........I am in that tiny minority group of posters that believe we remain in danger.. ......[/quote]I reckon if we were 24 points clear with 8 games to play you''d be saying it could all hinge on goal difference.[:D]Have you ever enjoyed watching NCFC ?[/quote]............has he ever WATCHED the Canaries?[:@][/quote]

Err....I think you''ll find he went to Sunderland, says something........

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[quote user="star_manic"][quote user="......and Smith must score."][quote user="Highland Canary"] ........I am in that tiny minority group of posters that believe we remain in danger.. ......[/quote]I reckon if we were 24 points clear with 8 games to play you''d be saying it could all hinge on goal difference.[:D]Have you ever enjoyed watching NCFC ?[/quote]............has he ever WATCHED the Canaries?[:@][/quote]

I think you''ll find he went to Sunderland, says something.

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[quote user="flying high up in the sky"]We have never been in danger of going down all season. Yes we are safe.[/quote]Agreed.

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" think you''ll find he went to Sunderland, says something "

 

you saw him there ?

 

 

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[quote user="Ha ya got a loight boy"][quote user="starmanic"][quote user="and Smith must score."][quote user="Highland Canary"] ........I am in that tiny minority group of posters that believe we remain in danger.. ......[/quote]

I reckon if we were 24 points clear with 8 games to play you''d be saying it could all hinge on goal difference.[:D]

Have you ever enjoyed watching NCFC ?
[/quote]............has he ever WATCHED the Canaries?[:@]
[/quote]


I think you''ll find he went to Sunderland, says something.





[/quote]

The fact his real name is Chris Foy says something as well[:D]

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