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Pete Raven, March 20, 2013 in Main Discussion - Norwich City
Obviously, we are not yet safe. We, like every other football club, have to earn our way into that position. However, the proof on display at Sunderland was that we do have the character at the club to help us earn what''s required. When such character is present it speaks to everyone associated with the club, and certainly every player that steps on the pitch.
[quote user="star_manic"]i should have said that we will not be one of those two teams.[:$][/quote]
Would agree with that but also say, Newcastle and Stoke are looking over thier shoulders, and I think we need another 3points to make sure.
I think the performance against Sunderland proved they have far more to worry about than us. But we''re not safe until we get the required amount of points whatever that may be. Sunday also proved that results can be affected by other influences than the two teams playing so we need to get those points sooner rather than later in case similar circumstances occur in future games.
What did Sunday''s game say about Sunderland''s survival hopes?
I think it''s worth saying that the performance at Sunderland was an important corrective to a lot of the angst that followed the Southampton game. It showed our team have the character for a scrap, whereas they needed a lot of help from the officials to even get a point at home.
So we''re not safe yet, but well placed and it would take a very bad run of form now to put us in real danger.
Whilst we are not mathmatically safe, the performance at Sunderland would suggest that we are capable of getting the points that will see us safely over the line. The next few weeks will be interesting, without wishing to over analyse things (football has a habit of being unpredictable) there are a number of games where teams deemed to be in a relegation scrap are playing each other, the most points I can see QPR getting is 35 and I see Reading getting somewhere around that total, if this turns out to be correct that means we would have to lose all of our remaining games to go down, assuming we do not then Wigam appear to be the key in that they play us, QPR, West Ham and Villa, my feeling is if we avoid defeat at Wigan we are as good as safe, but defeat will not be a disaster providing we win a couple of our home games (despite what I said earlier I think I have over analysed things!!).......
I can''t see us getting anything from Arsenal or Man City away. Of the remaining games Stoke away will be difficult and Swansea and WBA at home. There could be only 2 points here.
The remaining games Wigan away, Reading at home and Villa at home are difficult to predict. They are all fighting for their lives, I would suggest possibly 3 points as a minimum or 5 as a maximum.
My prediction is that we shall finish with 38 to 41 points. In theory any of the teams about us and below could overhaul us, although Reading on 23 points seem unlikely. They will do well to secure 15 points from their remaining games, given that they have Arsenal and Fulham and us away and in their four home games they entertain Southampton, Liverpool and Man City. They seem doomed.
Most of the bottom teams have to play other lower teams - West Ham have four such, three at home, while the rest have mostly three. How these will pan out is difficult to say, but we can be sure that in these games one side at least will achieve one point as a maximum.
1) We are by no means certain to escape. Even QPR, woken up recently, could overtake us.
2) We can''t rely on other clubs, and we can make ourselves safe. Saturday''s battling performance and the performance of some of the lesser players has suggested that we may should be able to survive.
We are obviously not mathematically safe.
Are we realistically safe? I believe so and I find it hard to believe that you, Highland and others seem to spend so much time creating worse case apocalyptic scenarios to scare yourselves and then try and scare the rest of us. I''ve always thought 38 points was enough. Arry thinks 37 will do it. Every team in the Prem will get at least 5 points fron the last 9 games. It would be unprofessional incompetence not too. Even Peter Grant, hell even Bryan Gunn could keep us up from here.
As for the players, let me put an alternative point of view. If they are not stressed out worrying about highly unlikely scenarios, they may well play better. relaxed, confident play can be as good as complacency can be bad. Mistakes are more likely when players are stressed. That is why the recent nervous tension at Carrow Road is as dangerous as it is unecessary.
As for the lessons of Sunderland, even with 10 men and three very demoralising decisions, their £25m+ forwards couldn''t score more than a gift penalty. And there are posters saying we might not get another 5 points from 8 games after that performance? That is not just a lack of faith, it is a perverse misconstuing of the evidence.
In reality we are safe, a club in our position would probably only be relegated once in a hunderd times if not more. But not many people would have thought a club would be relegated on 42 points all those years ago and while we are only 3 wins away from the bottom 3, there is always a real chance of being dragged into the battle.
On the face of it we have relatively easy games left at home and should pick up at least another 7 points, but in reality the longer we go without winning, the closer the rest will come. Do we really want to go into the final day needing something from the Man City game to stay up, not me!
Wigan is a pivotal match, if we can come away from there without losing then it goes a long way to safety. A win and I think City1st will be right, the team will end this season on a high and finish in the top 10. Once the pressure is off the players will be free to go out and enjoy the game and we have the attacking midfield players to really move up that table, would not be suprised if Kamara, Holt and Beccho have a strong finish to the year.
But lose to Wigan and the pressure will start to bite.
Not safe just yet, but potential to be a great season rather than a close season.
And our battling performance on Sunday was pretty good too.
" A win and I think City1st will be right, the team will end this season on a high and finish in the top 10"
I never said that, stop making up stuff
"Once the pressure is off "
I doubt the pressure is ever off - we will keep pushing on whatever the circumstances. It is just under £1m per place to be fought for
"But not many people would have thought a club would be relegated on 42 points all those years ago"
It was West Ham who (like Villa now) had 27 points after 30 games - and were also relegated with those final 42 points. Matching us were Leeds who were on 34 points from 30 games ... and finished on 47 points. Worth noting that the bottom 2, West Brom and Sunderland went from 21 and 19 points respectively to 26 and 19 points over those last 8 games.
After 20 games we were on 25 points. Wigan were on 18, Reading on 13 and QPR on 10. 7 points clear.
After 25 games we were on 28 points. Reading on 23, Wigan on 21, Villa on 21 and QPR on 17. 7 points clear of bottom three
After 30 games we are on 34 points. Wigan on 27, Reading on 24 and QPR on 24. 7 Points clear.
Based on how the gap is consistent (I know Wigan have only played 29) and the fact that we still have Villa, Southampton, Sunderland, West Ham and Newcastle between them and us I have no doubt that we will stay up.
I have felt we are safe for some weeks now so while perforamnces have generally been dull and disappointing we have continued to make progress and remain resolutely mid table - which was what this season was all about.
Sunderland confirmed that the run in we have is precisely why we are safe even though the mathematicians (incl me) can say its still possible; we have not lost to teams in the bottom 5/6 and even if we start now we wont lose so many to get embroiled in any nail biting squeaky bum type antics.
The signing of RvW early shows the confidence the board have in the manager and squad that we are simply not in real danger. It also confirms that this was always going to be a difficult season of transition in terms of balancing both the improvements needed in the playing squad and clearing the due debt and that with next seasons riches the long term plan of regenerating the playing staff will be like a Summer christmas for us long suffering city fans.
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