Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Pete Raven

Are City safe - and was that performance at Sunderland proof?

Recommended Posts

I think we''re safe, not mathematically but tbh I

wouldn''t be that surprised if 3 teams failed to reach 34 points from

here. We''re safe because we will comfortably pick up enough points to

keep us clear of the bottom three, the Sunderland game proved this, we

were looking good for a win until Foy wanted a piece of the action but

then away from home we not only came away with a point despite the

injustices but we did it with some element of class. We were not

"plucky little Norwich" in the face of that adversity, rather we

outplayed for large periods of the game a Sunderland team who were at

home, desperately needed to win and had an unusual amount of help from

the officials . Contrast our performance with that of Villas ten men

behind the ball approach when they were down to 10 against us, that''s

why they are battling relegation and we are where we are, it''s all down to

faith in the defence, we have it in abundance, this allowed us to play

higher up the field despite being a man short on Sunday.We would probably

need to lose a minimum of 6 or 7 or possibly all  8 of our remaining

games to be relegated, cannot for the life of me see this happening as like our manager and our players I too have faith in our defence.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Obviously, we are not yet safe. We, like every other football club, have to earn our way into that position. However, the proof on display at  Sunderland was that we do have the character at the club to help us earn what''s required. When such character is present it speaks to everyone associated with the club, and certainly every player that steps on the pitch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="Sports Desk Pete"]Discuss...[/quote]There''s loads of threads already discussing this! Bloody attention seekers......[:@]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not safe maths wise.

I think we are safe from QPR and Reading unless some miracle happens for them and they are able to put together more wins than either have managed in the rest of the season in the last 8 games.

Wigan has that game in hand is that bit closer in 7 points. That should be considered as 8 in terms of goal difference and again they will need three wins, almost half as many as they have amounted already, just to surpass our current points total.

That makes the next game rather big in that respect. Anything but a loss is good in my books.

So whilst no, not safe yet - realistically I just can''t see the 3-5 teams down there getting a decent run of form together. Sunderland for example now have a very tough run of games.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="lappinitup"][quote user="Sports Desk Pete"]Discuss...[/quote]There''s loads of threads already discussing this! Bloody attention seekers......[:@][/quote]This thread is doomed!Wait till SDP sees it.... err....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[quote user="star_manic"]i should have said that we will not be one of those two teams.[:$]
[/quote]

Would agree with that but also say, Newcastle and Stoke are looking over thier shoulders, and I think we need another 3points to make sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Of course we''re not, until we are mathematically safe then that''s when we are actually safe!

Do I think we will go down, no. But it''s far to early to think we are

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the performance against Sunderland proved they have far more to worry about than us. But we''re not safe until we get the required amount of points whatever that may be. Sunday also proved that results can be affected by other influences than the two teams playing so we need to get those points sooner rather than later in case similar circumstances occur in future games.

 

What did Sunday''s game say about Sunderland''s survival hopes?

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it''s worth saying that the performance at Sunderland was an important corrective to a lot of the angst that followed the Southampton game.  It showed our team have the character for a scrap, whereas they needed a lot of help from the officials to even get a point at home.

 

So we''re not safe yet, but well placed and it would take a very bad run of form now to put us in real danger.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whilst we are not mathmatically safe, the performance at Sunderland would suggest that we are capable of getting the points that will see us safely over the line. The next few weeks will be interesting, without wishing to over analyse things (football has a habit of being unpredictable) there are a number of games where teams deemed to be in a relegation scrap are playing each other, the most points I can see QPR getting is 35 and I see Reading getting somewhere around that total, if this turns out to be correct that means we would have to lose all of our remaining games to go down, assuming we do not then Wigam appear to be the key in that they play us, QPR, West Ham and Villa, my feeling is if we avoid defeat at Wigan we are as good as safe, but defeat will not be a disaster providing we win a couple of our home games (despite what I said earlier I think I have over analysed things!!).......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can''t see us getting anything from Arsenal or Man City away. Of the remaining games Stoke away will be difficult and Swansea and WBA at home. There could be only 2 points here.

The remaining games Wigan away, Reading at home and Villa at home are difficult to predict. They are all fighting for their lives, I would suggest possibly 3 points as a minimum or 5 as a maximum.

My prediction is that we shall finish with 38 to 41 points. In theory any of the teams about us and below could overhaul us, although Reading on 23 points seem unlikely. They will do well to secure 15 points from their remaining games, given that they have Arsenal and Fulham and us away and in their four home games they entertain Southampton, Liverpool and Man City. They seem doomed.

Most of the bottom teams have to play other lower teams - West Ham have four such, three at home, while the rest have mostly three. How these will pan out is difficult to say, but we can be sure that in these games one side at least will achieve one point as a maximum.

 

Conclusion:

1) We are by no means certain to escape. Even QPR, woken up recently, could overtake us.

2) We can''t rely on other clubs, and we can make ourselves safe. Saturday''s battling performance and the performance of some of the lesser players has suggested that we may should be able to survive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We are obviously not mathematically safe.

Are we realistically safe? I believe so and I find it hard to believe that you, Highland and others seem to spend so much time creating worse case apocalyptic scenarios to scare yourselves and then try and scare the rest of us. I''ve always thought 38 points was enough. Arry thinks 37 will do it. Every team in the Prem will get at least 5 points fron the last 9 games. It would be unprofessional incompetence not too. Even Peter Grant, hell even Bryan Gunn could keep us up from here.

As for the players, let me put an alternative point of view. If they are not stressed out worrying about highly unlikely scenarios, they may well play better. relaxed, confident play can be as good as complacency can be bad. Mistakes are more likely when players are stressed. That is why the recent nervous tension at Carrow Road is as dangerous as it is unecessary.

 

As for the lessons of Sunderland, even with 10 men and three very demoralising decisions, their £25m+ forwards couldn''t score more than a gift penalty.  And there are posters saying we might not get another 5 points from 8 games after that performance?  That is not just a lack of faith, it is a perverse misconstuing of the evidence.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Guest
I have us finishing on 43 points so we should be just. I don''t expect QPR to go down either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In reality we are safe, a club in our position would probably only be relegated once in a hunderd times if not more. But not many people would have thought a club would be relegated on 42 points all those years ago and while we are only 3 wins away from the bottom 3, there is always a real chance of being dragged into the battle.

 

On the face of it we have relatively easy games left at home and should pick up at least another 7 points, but in reality the longer we go without winning, the closer the rest will come. Do we really want to go into the final day needing something from the Man City game to stay up, not me!

 

Wigan is a pivotal match, if we can come away from there without losing then it goes a long way to safety. A win and I think City1st will be right, the team will end this season on a high and finish in the top 10. Once the pressure is off the players will be free to go out and enjoy the game and we have the attacking midfield players to really move up that table, would not be suprised if Kamara, Holt and Beccho have a strong finish to the year.

 

But lose to Wigan and the pressure will start to bite.

 

Not safe just yet, but potential to be a great season rather than a close season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="IncH HigH"]I have us finishing on 43 points so we should be just. I don''t expect QPR to go down either.[/quote]

Bookies will lay you 4-1 on that. Put your money where your mouth is because at those odds your expectations amount to free money.QPR were dead at the end of October and with 8 games left they are even deader. Study the facts and you will see that the Harry Houdini myth has no basis in reality.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="Salopian"]

I can''t see us getting anything from Arsenal or Man City away. Of the remaining games Stoke away will be difficult and Swansea and WBA at home. There could be only 2 points here.

The remaining games Wigan away, Reading at home and Villa at home are difficult to predict. They are all fighting for their lives, I would suggest possibly 3 points as a minimum or 5 as a maximum.

My prediction is that we shall finish with 38 to 41 points. In theory any of the teams about us and below could overhaul us, although Reading on 23 points seem unlikely. They will do well to secure 15 points from their remaining games, given that they have Arsenal and Fulham and us away and in their four home games they entertain Southampton, Liverpool and Man City. They seem doomed.

Most of the bottom teams have to play other lower teams - West Ham have four such, three at home, while the rest have mostly three. How these will pan out is difficult to say, but we can be sure that in these games one side at least will achieve one point as a maximum.

Conclusion:

1) We are by no means certain to escape. Even QPR, woken up recently, could overtake us.

2) We can''t rely on other clubs, and we can make ourselves safe. Saturday''s battling performance and the performance of some of the lesser players has suggested that we may should be able to survive.

[/quote]

 

And our battling performance on Sunday was pretty good too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

" A win and I think City1st will be right, the team will end this season on a high and finish in the top 10"

 

I never said that, stop making up stuff

 

"Once the pressure is off "

 

I doubt the pressure is ever off - we will keep pushing on whatever the circumstances. It is just under £1m per place to be fought for

 

"But not many people would have thought a club would be relegated on 42 points all those years ago"

 

It was West Ham who (like Villa now) had 27 points after 30 games - and were also relegated with those final 42 points. Matching us were Leeds who were on 34 points from 30 games ... and finished on 47 points. Worth noting that the bottom 2, West Brom and Sunderland went from 21 and 19 points respectively to 26 and 19 points over those last 8 games.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
i look at it like this.  the way the table is we should be looking not below but go get some points to finish as high as we can and add some extra cash to the pot for next year. however if we lose against wigan on sat week that view may change.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="mastoola"]i look at it like this.  the way the table is we should be looking not below but go get some points to finish as high as we can and add some extra cash to the pot for next year. however if we lose against wigan on sat week that view may change.[/quote]

I think most of us think the same.   No need to look down or up, really, simply look to win games.  If you do that everything else takes care of itself. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
We''re not safe yet and won''t be until three or four games from the end of the season, but what the Sunderland match did show is we have a bonded and motivated squad of players who are willing to fight for the cause and not buckle under pressure and poor decisions by officials.  That spirit and purpose will get us the points we need to ensure Premier League football next season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After 20 games we were on 25 points. Wigan were on 18, Reading on 13 and QPR on 10. 7 points clear.

After 25 games we were on 28 points. Reading on 23, Wigan on 21, Villa on 21 and QPR on 17. 7 points clear of bottom three

After 30 games we are on 34 points. Wigan on 27, Reading on 24 and QPR on 24. 7 Points clear.

Based on how the gap is consistent (I know Wigan have only played 29) and the fact that we still have Villa, Southampton, Sunderland, West Ham and Newcastle between them and us I have no doubt that we will stay up.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes.

The character of the team is immense, & will see us through all adversity (including the slings & arrows of outrageous referees).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I am confident enough we are safe that I could view a loss at Wigan almost with equanimity, simply because it massively adds to the probability of Villa going down.  I still really want to win or at least a draw though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have felt we are safe for some weeks now so while perforamnces have generally been dull and disappointing we have continued to make progress and remain resolutely mid table - which was what this season was all about.

 

Sunderland confirmed that the run in we have is precisely why we are safe even though the mathematicians (incl me) can say its still possible;   we have not lost to teams in the bottom 5/6 and even if we start now we wont  lose so many to get embroiled in any nail biting squeaky bum type antics.

 

The signing of RvW early shows the confidence the board have in the manager and squad that we are simply not in real danger.   It also confirms that this was always going to be a difficult season of transition in terms of balancing both the improvements needed in the playing squad and clearing the due debt and that with next seasons riches the long term plan of regenerating the playing staff will be like a Summer christmas for us long suffering city fans.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...