1995 And to blind to see it !!

[Tim Dawson 0]

A lot of posters on here despite 1995 only being 18 years ago will not remember it, although not a shadow of the 92-93 side it was still one that was thought good enough to stay up.

Now for those who dont remember come xmas 94 we were sitting comfortably in 7th, not pulling up trees but solid and consolidated, then Gunn broke his ankle ( against Forest i think).

Then followed a run of bad results, very unlucky games where we didnt take our chances ( Eventual champions Blackburn away springs to mind ) a run of injuries in midfield forcing us to play un-creative players like Milligan, Carey and Goss ( Who was only really good for two seasons, his apps total is testimonty to that)

Everyone said its impossible they cant go down, yet week by week we gradually sunk lower and lower, then came Leeds away, 2nd last game of the season, we took the lead and hung on till the 90th minute, a dodgy penalty followed by a 94th minute Carlton Palmer winner sent us down, people talk about Fulham and Colchester ( i was at them too) but that defeat was gutting.

Im not saying its going to happen but people like Ricardo are burying their heads in the sand if they think it couldnt, everyone down the bottom end is more inventive and boasts a better goalscoring record than us, Reading and Qpr are virtually gone but at the moment i cant see past us being the third team to fill that spot.

I guess the abuse will fly in but im just being honest and realistic, and id be more than ecstatic if im proved wrong......

[ricardo 7,328]

[quote user="Tim Dawson"]A lot of posters on here despite 1995 only being 18 years ago will not remember it, although not a shadow of the 92-93 side it was still one that was thought good enough to stay up.

Now for those who dont remember come xmas 94 we were sitting comfortably in 7th, not pulling up trees but solid and consolidated, then Gunn broke his ankle ( against Forest i think).

Then followed a run of bad results, very unlucky games where we didnt take our chances ( Eventual champions Blackburn away springs to mind ) a run of injuries in midfield forcing us to play un-creative players like Milligan, Carey and Goss ( Who was only really good for two seasons, his apps total is testimonty to that)

Everyone said its impossible they cant go down, yet week by week we gradually sunk lower and lower, then came Leeds away, 2nd last game of the season, we took the lead and hung on till the 90th minute, a dodgy penalty followed by a 94th minute Carlton Palmer winner sent us down, people talk about Fulham and Colchester ( i was at them too) but that defeat was gutting.

Im not saying its going to happen but people like Ricardo are burying their heads in the sand if they think it couldnt, everyone down the bottom end is more inventive and boasts a better goalscoring record than us, Reading and Qpr are virtually gone but at the moment i cant see past us being the third team to fill that spot.

I guess the abuse will fly in but im just being honest and realistic, and id be more than ecstatic if im proved wrong......[/quote]Nobody is saying it can''t happen Tim, it''s just very unlikely. Yes we haven''t scored many lately but you don''t mention that other teams are conceding considerably more. We have a comparatively easier run in than the others and have four of our remaining games at home where we have only lost three times.I ask you this, of the 9 teams on 34 points or less who would you want to swap with and remember that you would need to name 7 of them for us to go down.

[Carra Rud 17]

[quote user="Tim Dawson"]A lot of posters on here despite 1995 only being 18 years ago will not remember it, although not a shadow of the 92-93 side it was still one that was thought good enough to stay up.

Now for those who dont remember come xmas 94 we were sitting comfortably in 7th, not pulling up trees but solid and consolidated, then Gunn broke his ankle ( against Forest i think).

Then followed a run of bad results, very unlucky games where we didnt take our chances ( Eventual champions Blackburn away springs to mind ) a run of injuries in midfield forcing us to play un-creative players like Milligan, Carey and Goss ( Who was only really good for two seasons, his apps total is testimonty to that)

Everyone said its impossible they cant go down, yet week by week we gradually sunk lower and lower, then came Leeds away, 2nd last game of the season, we took the lead and hung on till the 90th minute, a dodgy penalty followed by a 94th minute Carlton Palmer winner sent us down, people talk about Fulham and Colchester ( i was at them too) but that defeat was gutting.

Im not saying its going to happen but people like Ricardo are burying their heads in the sand if they think it couldnt, everyone down the bottom end is more inventive and boasts a better goalscoring record than us, Reading and Qpr are virtually gone but at the moment i cant see past us being the third team to fill that spot.

I guess the abuse will fly in but im just being honest and realistic, and id be more than ecstatic if im proved wrong......[/quote]Totally correct, I remember the Leeds game only too well. The Fulham drubbing was a farce and the Colchester fiasco at least kick started a revival.There are two divided camps on this forum - optimists and realists. A few weeks ago and back in mid table it looked quite good - I myself was optimistic, but now we are just 4pts clear of the drop zone, its too close to call. Given our situation, we are now "realistic" relegation fodder.Despite what some people may think I don''t want City to go down, but I see all the signs that they will. Blind faith, denial or using "stats" based on previous results mean absolutely nothing. The string of recent results don''t lie. We aren''t scoring goals so can''t win games or am I missing something? We''ll "probably" grind out a draw or two, but without wins its relying on other teams doing worse.

[Alan_Grey 0]

It''s not totally correct, as ricardo pointed out his viewpoint was misrepresented.

And you''re right, there ARE two divided camps - people who have reasonable viewpoints and are willing to debate, and morons who think there are two extreme viewpoints and will never change their position or admit that the situation is uncertain.

[Herman 9,698]

I think there are 5 different camps on here Carra Rud. A bit like the political spectrum they range from the extremes on either side, with the realists being nearer the middle viewpoint.

[Tim Dawson 0]

I know what you are saying Ricardo and no-one respects your opinions or views more than me, but i mentioned this on a thread weeks back and after listening to your logic i calmed down a bit, and yes our run in does look better than others but i just cant see where the wins are coming from ( Not even Reading at the moment) the big wins may prove pivotal in the season but we should be trying to beat those around us for points and its just not happening.

Carra rud i agree with you, i just didnt feel like we would score again yday, i know our defence is pretty water-tight but attacking is oh so woeful, i am really worried because staying up this year really is a must......

[can u sit down please 0]

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="Tim Dawson"]A lot of posters on here despite 1995 only being 18 years ago will not remember it, although not a shadow of the 92-93 side it was still one that was thought good enough to stay up.

Now for those who dont remember come xmas 94 we were sitting comfortably in 7th, not pulling up trees but solid and consolidated, then Gunn broke his ankle ( against Forest i think).

Then followed a run of bad results, very unlucky games where we didnt take our chances ( Eventual champions Blackburn away springs to mind ) a run of injuries in midfield forcing us to play un-creative players like Milligan, Carey and Goss ( Who was only really good for two seasons, his apps total is testimonty to that)

Everyone said its impossible they cant go down, yet week by week we gradually sunk lower and lower, then came Leeds away, 2nd last game of the season, we took the lead and hung on till the 90th minute, a dodgy penalty followed by a 94th minute Carlton Palmer winner sent us down, people talk about Fulham and Colchester ( i was at them too) but that defeat was gutting.

Im not saying its going to happen but people like Ricardo are burying their heads in the sand if they think it couldnt, everyone down the bottom end is more inventive and boasts a better goalscoring record than us, Reading and Qpr are virtually gone but at the moment i cant see past us being the third team to fill that spot.

I guess the abuse will fly in but im just being honest and realistic, and id be more than ecstatic if im proved wrong......[/quote]Nobody is saying it can''t happen Tim, it''s just very unlikely. Yes we haven''t scored many lately but you don''t mention that other teams are conceding considerably more. We have a comparatively easier run in than the others and have four of our remaining games at home where we have only lost three times.I ask you this, of the 9 teams on 34 points or less who would you want to swap with and remember that you would need to name 7 of them for us to go down.[/quote]Ricardo, you say easier run in but we have recently played 4 of the bottom 6 and only got 3 from 12. Thats forgetting Southapton and Fulham. Im daunted by the prospect of this easier run in of Swansea, Arsenal, Stoke, Man City and Villa. Reading and WBA imo will be the only games we pick something up in.

[havemyhowsonit 0]

History is going to repeat itself. I fear it will be the villa game

[ricardo 7,328]

I''m still waiting for someone to tell me which 7 of those 9 teams they would like to swap with.

[York Canary 28]

Don''t know who''s saying it literally couldn''t happen, but I have enough faith to honestly believe we''ll stay up. It won''t be pretty and it won''t be easy, but I just believe we will. That''s taking into account everything I''ve seen this season. If you think we''re the ones for the 3rd relegation spot then you obviously have more faith in the other teams pulling wins from somewhere, but I personally can''t see where Sunderland will get a win from or even Stoke at this rate. We just need a win from these masses of draws..4 winnable home games to come yet and even Stoke away could bring points.. don''t be defeated yet pal..nothing is done and this team can spring a surprise on you (Everton last 10mins)

[ricardo 7,328]

[quote user="York Canary"]Don''t know who''s saying it literally couldn''t happen, but I have enough faith to honestly believe we''ll stay up. It won''t be pretty and it won''t be easy, but I just believe we will. That''s taking into account everything I''ve seen this season. If you think we''re the ones for the 3rd relegation spot then you obviously have more faith in the other teams pulling wins from somewhere, but I personally can''t see where Sunderland will get a win from or even Stoke at this rate. We just need a win from these masses of draws..4 winnable home games to come yet and even Stoke away could bring points.. don''t be defeated yet pal..nothing is done and this team can spring a surprise on you (Everton last 10mins)[/quote]Who said it was going to be easy. It was always going to be a fight to stay in this league. My pre-season prediction was 43 points and I don''t think I will be more than 2 or 3 points out when all is done and dusted.There will be unexpected wins and losses for all teams in the next 7 games but I''m a lot happier on 34 points than I would be if we were on 30 or 31.

[norfolkbroadslim 223]

Reading have the worst away form in the whole league -

 

P16  W1  D2  L13  F13  A32  GD-19

[Highland Canary 76]

To answer your question Ricardo:

Wigan, Villa, Sunderland, Stoke, Newcastle, Southampton, west Ham, QPR*, Fulham

Down Reading, Sunderland, us

*big game tomorrow night - if QPR win I think they''ll get out of it at our expense. If they don''t win - we may just about survive on 38 points.

The real issue is I question whether we will have the confidence, tactics and belief that those around us seem to have.

[Herman 9,698]

Only Soton and Wigan have confidence of the teams around us. West Ham at a push because of Big Sam.

[ricardo 7,328]

[quote user="Highland Canary"]To answer your question Ricardo:

Wigan, Villa, Sunderland, Stoke, Newcastle, Southampton, west Ham, QPR*, Fulham

Down Reading, Sunderland, us

*big game tomorrow night - if QPR win I think they''ll get out of it at our expense. If they don''t win - we may just about survive on 38 points.

The real issue is I question whether we will have the confidence, tactics and belief that those around us seem to have.[/quote]I knew I could count on you HC.Yes they''ve all got confidence tactics and belief but we haven''t. Wigan and Southampton got good results in their home matches. Sunderland lost at home as did Villa. Stoke, Newcastle lost away. The latter by a 3 more goals than we did. West Ham Fulham should be ok in any event QPR and Reading won''t be. Sunderland, Wigan and Villa now only have 3 remaining home games, we have 4.Next week we will all be on 32 games (16 home and away) except for Wigan who have an extra away game to catch up. I suggest that we may see a completely different picture to the one so many people seem to be agonizing over at the moment.

[Year of the tiger 52]

The bit that reminds me so much of 95 is that just before Christmas I was hearing "we only need 4 wins from 21 games" now its "we only need 2 wins from 7" Except realistically its 2 from 5 (anyone think we can win at Atsenal of Man City?) I can still hear Robert Chase saying it. IF we don''t win Saturday or at the Emirates the pressure to beat Reading will be incredible & we know of old what City teams do under pressure. I hope I am being jusyt my usual pessimistic self but I fel we could be in trouble. And Ricardo, Villa, Stoke, Wigan, Newcastle, Fulham, West Ham, Stoke & by virtue of a new manager bounce Sunderland

 

[crabbycanary 2]

Highland, am I correct in thinking you have children? How do you go about giving them confidence?

You honestly think that if QPR beat Fulham they will finish above us? Wow

[lappinitup 629]

[quote user="crabbycanary"]Highland, am I correct in thinking you have children?[/quote]I should have thought that was highly unlikely. He''s never got further than going down.........[;)]

[ricardo 7,328]

Just had a look at you post on the run in thread Lapp. Regarding last 10 games form, Villa and Wigan have both played 6 at home in that 10 game run so the average is probably overstated a bit.Looking at the next 3 games City Swansea, Reading at home Arsenal awayVillaFulham at home, Stoke Man Utd awayWiganQPR, W Ham, Man C  all awaySunderlandEverton at home Chelsea, Newcastle awayI tentatively suggest the gap could be bigger than 4 points after 34 games.

[crabbycanary 2]

Brilliant Lapp!!

[norfolkbroadslim 223]

[quote user="Highland Canary"]To answer your question Ricardo: Wigan, Villa, Sunderland, Stoke, Newcastle, Southampton, west Ham, QPR*, Fulham Down Reading, Sunderland, us *big game tomorrow night - if QPR win I think they''ll get out of it at our expense. If they don''t win - we may just about survive on 38 points. The real issue is I question whether we will have the confidence, tactics and belief that those around us seem to have.[/quote]

 

So you have QPR getting 16 or 17 points from their final 8 games?[:^)]

 

Thanks for cheering me up HC, I needed a good laugh[Y][:D]

[spudgfsh 0]

An optimistic prediction of QPRs fixtures

Fulham (a) - local derby - win

Wigan (h) - win

Everton (a) - Loss

Stoke (h) - win

Reading (a) - win

Arsenal (h) - loss

Newcastle (h) - win

Liverpool (a) - loss

that''s 15 points from 24 and I can see a QPR team with momentum getting points at home to arsenal (another local derby)

not that I''m saying it will happen, and I still think the villa game will still prove decisive. It is still not out of the realms of possibility for QPR to get out of the bottom three but they are getting to the point where they will start needing snookers.

[Norwich or die tryin! 0]

We Will stay up. We won''t finish below all 3 of Wigan, Villa and Sunderland.

[CambridgeCanary 0]

[quote user="spudgfsh"]An optimistic prediction of QPRs fixtures

Fulham (a) - local derby - win

Wigan (h) - win

Everton (a) - Loss

Stoke (h) - win

Reading (a) - win

Arsenal (h) - loss

Newcastle (h) - win

Liverpool (a) - loss

that''s 15 points from 24 and I can see a QPR team with momentum getting points at home to arsenal (another local derby)

not that I''m saying it will happen, and I still think the villa game will still prove decisive. It is still not out of the realms of possibility for QPR to get out of the bottom three but they are getting to the point where they will start needing snookers.[/quote]

And if you''re right then they take three points from a team two points ahead of us, three from a team with the same points and worse current form and three from three teams below us.

And that is bad for us how exactly?

[crabbycanary 2]

Yep - this is what people are not seeing Cambridge.

Historically there is always one team (normally Wigan!) who go on a run , and get themselves out of trouble each season. There needs to be 4 teams to suddenly get a run, that have been far and very few between themselves this season, to get above us. This also relies on us, going on a horrendous run and plummet.

Someone said yesterday that we had 1 win out of 14 games, but had said that a point would have been good. Well that would have made their argument stronger, because that would have been 1 win in 15!!

[lord montyjones 0]

Ricardo if there are 9 teams on 34 pts or less wouldnt you have to name 6 not 7 for us to drop? wont happen though even though the odds have shortened to 12s

[Tim Dawson 0]

People seem to be assuming that Reading home is a banker, all i will say is so were Qpr, West Ham and a few others, my nightmare scenario is us needing to beat Villa and Lambert sending us down, im hoping that is just a bad dream, seeing him celebrate on our pitch after the cup win was galling but that scenario doesnt bare thinking about.

[ZLF 271]

An idle bank holiday made me look at the prem seasons relegation seasons while a 20 team league. Some facts from that period

 

• 70% of teams in the bottom 3 after 30 games get relegated (30 games chosen and thats how many wigan have played)
• over those 17 seasons the average points gained from the 18th team after 30 games to being safe in 17th at season end is 8 pts
• The avg final points total for 30 pts at 30 games is 37 points.
• No team  in PL era has been relegated from 5 places above the relegation slot with 8 games to go.
• If a team falls into a relegation spot its usually the 17ths placed team (60% of those that do)
• The 16th placed team has been relegated 4 time,  the 15th just twice (most famously Blackpool,  but they were only 1 point above the relegation zone)
• 90% of relegated teams are within 2 points of the drop zone after 90 games.
• Teams typically gain 8 points in the last 8 games.
• Only only 3 occassions have 2 teams escasped the relegation zone in those last 8 games.
• only 3 times has a 3 point gap at this stage not been safe
• The most spectacular fall was from Wimbledon in 2000,   they were 6 points clear (a statistical anomaly by a long way) but we only 16th in the table - so still in the bottom five. 

As such the 3 relegated teams will almost certainly come from the current bottom 5,  with newcastle having a very small risk at getting dragged in.    To be safe we shoud need only 38 points - although 39 may be the mark.  Sunderland and Villa look the teams most likely to fill the fateful slot

As we sit 14th  with 4 home games to come we should be safe and it remains entirely in our own hands.

 

To bring it back to the thread in 1995 there were 22 teams but uniquely 4 teams relegated.  With 8 games to go we were 3 places above the relegation line and 4 points clear.  While we have the same points cushion (so we could be dragged down) its unlikely and we have both more teams below us and have the same points as the 2 teams above us. 

  

So recognise that while we are not yet safe w do sit 14th with many teams having to overtake us (more than has ever happened in prem history) and with 4 home games everything is entirely in our own hands to get the paltry 4-5 points needed to get safe.

[Tim Dawson 0]

I cant argue with yr facts and well done on the research by the way, but i just cant see us scoring, no inventiveness, no spark, no real pace, no quality attempts at goal, if we stay up it will be down to someone else`s poor form

[nutty nigel 7,506]

Well at least those who use stats are being objective and even courteous in the debate. Stating a point of view and backing it up by accusing those who disagree of being blind, burying their heads in the sand or showing blind faith and being in denial is arrogance in the extreme.