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PurpleCanary

THE RUN-IN

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[quote user="Jim Smith"]I disagree that the other teams cannot win three of their last 6 or 7 games and to rely on 4 points being enough would be dangerous. We need at least 2 wins to be able to relax because if Stoke, Wigan and Sunderland are within striking distance on the last day they will probably all have better goal differences than us and at least two of them may be playing sides with nothing to play for, possibly all 3 of them. So are we but can you see us getting anything at Man City even if they have nothing to play for?[/quote]

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get your tickets for stoke thats when we will be safe believe me or believe me not .Arsenal draw  Reading win Stoke 0-0  75 mill in the bank get in  equal to the scums present debt

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Whilst nothing is certain yet, the odds favour City over Sunderland, Wigan and even Stoke, given their run-ins compared to ours. A Draw would be a great result at Arsenal, Bungay, but even without it City should accumulate the points they need before the end.

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Too early in the weekend for a proper update, but Villa only drew today, and it was one of their very winnable games. And our goal difference didn''t suffer as badly as it might have done, so we are still ahead of Villa (the only team we are ahead of) on that score - our minus 21 to their minus 24. I just thought posters needed someone to look on the bright side...

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[quote user="PurpleCanary"]

So, 40 points the safety mark again eh! Who''d have thought it.[;)]OK, it might be 38 or 39 will be safe, but with very little to spare. So taking 40 points and looking at the six  teams still in danger of taking that 18th place:Newcastle: 36 points. Liverpool and Arsenal at home; WBA, West Ham and QPR away. The remaining home games don''t look that easy but in practice they only need a win and a draw to be safe, and they are now out of the Europa League.Norwich: 35 points. Reading, Villa and WBA at home, Stoke and Man City away. Similar to Stoke. Lousy form and few goals, and not much luck either. Dispassionately, four points are likely from the home games, which makes a draw at Stoke look doubly important. Goal difference will count against Norwich apart - possibly - from in comparison with Villa.Stoke: 34 points. Norwich and Spurs at home, QPR, Sunderland and Southampton away. Still in awful form, and now need either two wins or a win and three draws. Hard to look beyond the game with Norwich as crucial.Sunderland: 34 points. Everton, Stoke and Southampton at home, Villa and Spurs away. A great win at the weekend means they need what Stoke need, and that looks much more achievable than it did before, unless the Newcastle win was a one-off.Aston Villa: 34 points. Sunderland and Chelsea at home, Man Utd, Norwich and Wigan away. away. As with Stoke and Sunderland, six points the aim, especially given the bad goal difference. And Villa''s remaining fixtures suddenly look tougher than before they failed to beat Fulham.Wigan: 31 points. Spurs, Swansea and Villa at home, West Ham, WBA and Arsenal away. The extra-game stagger still to unwind. They have done this before (such as last season) and seem to have luck going for them. But now they need three wins out of six or two wins and three draws, with not one obviously easy away game left, plus a cup final to worry about. One away win and they can get to 40; no away wins and they almost certainly won''t.

[/quote]

 

The above has been updated to show tonight''s positions and new assessments.Saturday''s defeat was hard to take (just a point would have been very useful) and compounded by Sunderland''s win at Newcastle. However Villa only drawing at home to Fulham was a bonus. The decisive weekend still looks to be in a fortnight''s time - Wigan at home to Spurs, and Sunderland and Villa and Stoke and Norwich in mortal combat.

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Purple nice analysis.

I thought I would do a bit of analysis on each teams points over 5 games during the season (taken on 5th,10th,15th etc games) and come up with the following table:

Team Games (5,10,15,20,25,30)

Wigan - 4,7,3,4,3,9 (1 from 2)

Villa - 4,5,5,4,3,9, (4 from 3)

Newcastle - 8,6,3,3,7,6 (3 from 3)

Sunderland - 7,2,4,9,7,2, (3 from 3)

Norwich - 3,7,12,3,3,6,(1 from 3)

Reading - 2,4,3,4,10,0 (1 from 3)

Stoke - 4,5,13,7,1,4 (0 from 3)

A little tally of the points:

0 = 1.

1pt = 1.

2pts = 3.

3pts = 9.

4pts = 9.

5pts = 3.

6pts = 3.

7pts = 6.

8pts = 1.

9pts = 3.

10pts = 1.

12pts = 1.

13pts = 1.

Obviously it''s not helping that Wigan have 6games to go.

Out of the 42 ''5 game sequences'', 33 have been between 2 and 7points, and over half between 2 and 5pts. Hopefully, this translates into Wigan struggling to reach 38pts and averaging 36pts.

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[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]

So, 40 points the safety mark again eh! Who''d have thought it.[;)]OK, it might be 38 or 39 will be safe, but with very little to spare. So taking 40 points and looking at the six  teams still in danger of taking that 18th place:Newcastle: 36 points. Liverpool and Arsenal at home; WBA, West Ham and QPR away. The remaining home games don''t look that easy but in practice they only need a win and a draw to be safe, and they are now out of the Europa League.Norwich: 35 points. Reading, Villa and WBA at home, Stoke and Man City away. Similar to Stoke. Lousy form and few goals, and not much luck either. Dispassionately, four points are likely from the home games, which makes a draw at Stoke look doubly important. Goal difference will count against Norwich apart - possibly - from in comparison with Villa.Stoke: 34 points. Norwich and Spurs at home, QPR, Sunderland and Southampton away. Still in awful form, and now need either two wins or a win and three draws. Hard to look beyond the game with Norwich as crucial.Sunderland: 34 points. Everton, Stoke and Southampton at home, Villa and Spurs away. A great win at the weekend means they need what Stoke need, and that looks much more achievable than it did before, unless the Newcastle win was a one-off.Aston Villa: 34 points. Sunderland and Chelsea at home, Man Utd, Norwich and Wigan away. away. As with Stoke and Sunderland, six points the aim, especially given the bad goal difference. And Villa''s remaining fixtures suddenly look tougher than before they failed to beat Fulham.Wigan: 31 points. Spurs, Swansea and Villa at home, West Ham, WBA and Arsenal away. The extra-game stagger still to unwind. They have done this before (such as last season) and seem to have luck going for them. But now they need three wins out of six or two wins and three draws, with not one obviously easy away game left, plus a cup final to worry about. One away win and they can get to 40; no away wins and they almost certainly won''t.

[/quote]

 

The above has been updated to show tonight''s positions and new assessments.Saturday''s defeat was hard to take (just a point would have been very useful) and compounded by Sunderland''s win at Newcastle. However Villa only drawing at home to Fulham was a bonus. The decisive weekend still looks to be in a fortnight''s time - Wigan at home to Spurs, and Sunderland and Villa and Stoke and Norwich in mortal combat.

[/quote]

yep, agreed, little risk of us getting relegated!

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[quote user="PurpleCanary"]

Norwich: 35 points. Reading, Villa and WBA at home, Stoke and Man City away. Similar to Stoke. Lousy form and few goals, and not much luck either. Dispassionately, four points are likely from the home games, which makes a draw at Stoke look doubly important. Goal difference will count against Norwich apart - possibly - from in comparison with Villa.[/quote]

 

To expand on that, Sunderland are on -8, Stoke on -13 and Newcastle on - 17. If there is a train wreck on 39 or 40 points, we will almost certainly finish below those teams on goal difference. We are level with Wigan on -21 but if they catch up four points on us they are pretty much bound to finish with a better GD.The nightmare calculations come with Villa, on -24. They have Man Utd away, but then we have Man City away. Our three-goal lead could easily disappear (especially is they beat us) and if it comes down to goals scored to separate us then their current five-goal advantage would be decisive.

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Purple,For Wigan to be in the hypothetical 38-40 points frame with us, there GD is likely to have improve on the basis that they will make up a four point differential. If they cant get level with us, then GD is a non-issue.As for Villa, the wrong result when we play them could mean that the differential is eliminated. It is unlikley that Sunderland or Stoke will ship enough goals for us to get level with them on GD.So, being cautious, I would assume that we need to finish a point above any of our potential rivals for for the third relagtion spot, espeically given our worful record at Eastlands.Having said all of this, if we beat Reading we should be able to relax - not because 38 points will necessarily be enough, but because I think it will ease us into a pattern of grinding out another 3 to 4 points from the other remaining fixtures.

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[quote user="Louis Cyphre"]Purple,For Wigan to be in the hypothetical 38-40 points frame with us, there GD is likely to have improve on the basis that they will make up a four point differential. If they cant get level with us, then GD is a non-issue.As for Villa, the wrong result when we play them could mean that the differential is eliminated. It is unlikley that Sunderland or Stoke will ship enough goals for us to get level with them on GD.So, being cautious, I would assume that we need to finish a point above any of our potential rivals for for the third relagtion spot, espeically given our worful record at Eastlands.Having said all of this, if we beat Reading we should be able to relax - not because 38 points will necessarily be enough, but because I think it will ease us into a pattern of grinding out another 3 to 4 points from the other remaining fixtures.

[/quote]Louis, slightly confused by your Wigan comments, because I think that is what I was saying too! If we finish level on points with Wigan they will finish ahead on GD. That aside, I agree. We have to assume that we will need to finish ahead of all of those teams on points to finish ahead of them.

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Purple,That will teach me to read more carefully then - we are in agreement about not being able to afford to finish level with Wigan, who are still our best bet for the third trap door prize. If this were to happen, we would probably have to look to Stoke as being our next hope, which is why for some time I have believed that it is imperative we dont lose at the Britannia.

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A win against Reading will certainly take the pressure off.

 

Overall though it''s like the joke about 2 guys being chased by a bear - you don''t need to be quicker than the bear, just stay ahead of the other guy.

 

Taking QPR and Reading as already down in reality, we have 4 teams below us who have played the same number of games, except Wigan who are 4 points behind with a game in hand.  So as long as we can get the same number of points in our last 5 games as the worst performing of those 4 teams we''ll be ok (and for Wigan you subtract a win from their 6 games and compare us to the other 5 games).

 

But I really don''t want us to be at any risk on the final day !  Things had definitely gone against us in the last few games, let''s hope we maybe get the odd decision in our favour and, more important, simply play well enough against Reading that decisions don''t matter.

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[quote user="Louis Cyphre"]Purple,That will teach me to read more carefully then - we are in agreement about not being able to afford to finish level with Wigan, who are still our best bet for the third trap door prize. If this were to happen, we would probably have to look to Stoke as being our next hope, which is why for some time I have believed that it is imperative we dont lose at the Britannia.[/quote]

 

Absolutely. All I would add is that if we lost to Stoke but drew with Villa then we would have a pretty decent chance of finishing above Villa, even if we were level on points. In practice they are the one team we can beat on GD.

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For me it''s between Wigan and Stoke for the drop. I did the BBC predictor and had Stoke to go down on 36 points and Wigan and Villa to finish on 39. I think we''ll be safe by the West Brom game.

Stoke have 3 away games to our 2, and the 2nd worst away form in the league. QPR is their easiest away game but even if they win that I still think they''re doomed. They also have to visit Sunderland who have found a bit extra under Di Canio, and a free scoring Southampton. I''m struggling to see a win In either of those games, especially as Stoke are struggling to find the back of the net. One of their home games is vs Spurs who are playing for Champions league qualification and should have Bale back. Admittedly their game is against us is winnable, but I can really see it being 0-0.

I can see their results going something like this....

QPR 1 - 1 Stoke

Stoke 0 - 0 Norwich

Sunderland 2 - 1 Stoke

Stoke 0 - 1 Spurs

Southampton 2 - 0 Stoke

As always, football is tough to predict so this could all be heresay, but Stoke''s current dire form, extra away game and home fixture vs Spurs swings it for me.

The main thing is we must not lose at the Britania.

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Josh have to agree on the assessment of Stoke.

I remember sportinglife''s tip at the start of the season and thought that their first half form was going to be enough.

http://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/article/165/7990473/stoke-look-like-a-sinking-ship

Sportinglife predicted Bolton and Blackburn the previous year, so hopefully they keep their form up.

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[quote user="Baracouda"]Josh have to agree on the assessment of Stoke. I remember sportinglife''s tip at the start of the season and thought that their first half form was going to be enough. http://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/article/165/7990473/stoke-look-like-a-sinking-ship Sportinglife predicted Bolton and Blackburn the previous year, so hopefully they keep their form up.[/quote]

Excellent article.  You''d have to say that whether or not Stoke survived, they''ve picked up the point that Stoke would struggle this year.

 

Did they have any other relegation predictions ?

 

Cardiff fans would have to be annoyed to see the site already giving odds on them being relegated !

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sportinglife is part of the BSkyB group, and therefore they show the odds of Sky betting.

They usually do ok on their tips, not that I actually followed many. Maybe I should :)

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For what it is worth I played about with the Predictor and with the fixtures to go I think the team in 18th will finish with 38 points. Even being relatively pessimistic I had us surviving on goal difference with Villa going down (in fact I had everyone from 14th down on 38). But the key to survival wasn''t winning against Reading (I had us drawing all three at home, losing both away) but getting 1 point from the two games at Villa or Stoke. It didn''t matter which really - if the results swapped Stoke went down. In fact we were safe at week 37 as long as we didn''t lose 6-0 to Man City. On that basis of course win against Reading and we only need 1 point from our last 4.......OTBC

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[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]

So, 40 points the safety mark again eh! Who''d have thought it.[;)]OK, it might be 38 or 39 will be safe, but with very little to spare. So taking 40 points and looking at the six  teams still in danger of taking that 18th place:Norwich: 38 points. GD - 20. Villa and WBA at home, Stoke and Man City away. One win or two draws should suffice, but there is now not one obvious win left in the fixtures. Goal difference will count against Norwich apart - probably - from in comparison with Villa.Newcastle: 37 points. GD - 17. Liverpool and Arsenal at home; West Ham and QPR away. The remaining home games don''t look that easy but in practice they only need a win to be safe, and they are now out of the Europa League.Stoke: 37 points. GD - 11. Norwich and Spurs at home, Sunderland and Southampton away. The crucial win at QPR means just one more is required.Sunderland: 37 points. GD - 7. Stoke and Southampton at home, Villa and Spurs away. Two great wins in a row leaves them in a very similar position to Stoke. Goal difference in favour of both teams if there is a trainwreck on 40 points.Aston Villa: 34 points. GD - 27. Sunderland and Chelsea at home,  Norwich and Wigan away. away. Failing to beat Fulham at home looked bad for Villa, and is looking worse and worse. The teams listed above need one win, while Villa need two, but it would be a brave who tried to predict the outcome of any of their final four games.Wigan: 31 points. GD - 23. Spurs, Swansea and Villa at home, WBA and Arsenal away. The extra-game stagger still to unwind. They have done this before but now they need a tough three wins out of five or an improbable two wins and three draws, with neither away game easy, plus a cup final to worry about. One away win and they can get to 40; no away wins and they won''t.

[/quote]

 .

[/quote]

 

Resolutely NOT yet in counting chickens mode, and not just because we are not mathematically safe. There could still be be a group collision on 40 points. Villa''s predictable defeat to Man Utd doesn''t really change anything in terms of points generally and vis-à-vis us in particular, but we are now seven goals better off than them. Before it seemed that if they caught up with us (especially if they beat us at Carrow Road) they would finish ahead on GD, but not now, unless history were to repeat itself and we got hammered at the Etihad...The situation may be much clearer this time next week, after Stoke vs Norwich, Villa vs Sunderland (on Monday) and Wigan vs a highly motivated Spurs. Tempting to start to see it as a fight between Villa and Wigan to avoid 18th but a win each at the weekend and it could all be horribly close.

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[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]

So, 40 points the safety mark again eh! Who''d have thought it.[;)]OK, it might be 38 or 39 will be safe, but with very little to spare. So taking 40 points and looking at the six  teams still in danger of taking that 18th place:Norwich: 38 points. GD - 20. Villa and WBA at home, Stoke and Man City away. One win or two draws should suffice, but there is now not one obvious win left in the fixtures. Goal difference will count against Norwich apart - probably - from in comparison with Villa.Newcastle: 37 points. GD - 17. Liverpool and Arsenal at home; West Ham and QPR away. The remaining home games don''t look that easy but in practice they only need a win to be safe, and they are now out of the Europa League.Stoke: 37 points. GD - 11. Norwich and Spurs at home, Sunderland and Southampton away. The crucial win at QPR means just one more is required.Sunderland: 37 points. GD - 7. Stoke and Southampton at home, Villa and Spurs away. Two great wins in a row leaves them in a very similar position to Stoke. Goal difference in favour of both teams if there is a trainwreck on 40 points.Aston Villa: 34 points. GD - 27. Sunderland and Chelsea at home,  Norwich and Wigan away. away. Failing to beat Fulham at home looked bad for Villa, and is looking worse and worse. The teams listed above need one win, while Villa need two, but it would be a brave who tried to predict the outcome of any of their final four games.Wigan: 31 points. GD - 23. Spurs, Swansea and Villa at home, WBA and Arsenal away. The extra-game stagger still to unwind. They have done this before but now they need a tough three wins out of five or an improbable two wins and three draws, with neither away game easy, plus a cup final to worry about. One away win and they can get to 40; no away wins and they won''t.

[/quote]

 .

[/quote]

 

Resolutely NOT yet in counting chickens mode, and not just because we are not mathematically safe. There could still be be a group collision on 40 points. Villa''s predictable defeat to Man Utd doesn''t really change anything in terms of points generally and vis-à-vis us in particular, but we are now seven goals better off than them. Before it seemed that if they caught up with us (especially if they beat us at Carrow Road) they would finish ahead on GD, but not now, unless history were to repeat itself and we got hammered at the Etihad...The situation may be much clearer this time next week, after Stoke vs Norwich, Villa vs Sunderland (on Monday) and Wigan vs a highly motivated Spurs. Tempting to start to see it as a fight between Villa and Wigan to avoid 18th but a win each at the weekend and it could all be horribly close.

[/quote]

This thread is the bastard offspring of the relegation mini-league thread!

 

 Reading the posts, if there is on thing clear, it is that so many predictions are way off the actual results. Every week there is at least one result that runs against the form and makes predictions a meaningless exercise, just as the relegation mini-league tables proved nothing. What will be, will be.  

We are four points off ninth place and have never been in the bottom five since the end of October last year. Despite Pants-Wetter General Purple Canary trying to create an impression that we are in some kind of relegation dogfight, the fact of the matter is that we aren''t and never have been. Yes, we had a long stretch without winning games but set against that the ten game unbeaten run and the truth is we''re a mid-table Premiership side.

Nobody outside the top six have beaten us at Carrow Road this season, and if it does happen in one of our remaining games then it will be o e of those freak results that happen from time to time. A blip. 

Ricardo told us way back in November how the season was likely to pan out and he has been spot on. Trust the old-timers like Ricardo, they''ve seen it all before and know what they''re talking about.

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The way I now see it, the most likely relegated team is Wigan with villa second favourite and a very small chance they could both catch one of the pack now on 37-38 points. Chance of us being that team is very small because we''re hard to beat and have 3 games all of which we can realistically hope for 3 or 1 points from (all bets off for the etihad).

So we''re almost home now, but not quite there

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No one can predict these last 4 games, Wigan have been playing some good attacking football but all points towards a Spurs win, Sunderland have found form and hard to score against, with Villa beind a team which lets in 2 per game this has draw all over it and Stoke against us is going to the a 1 goal either way game, might even be a draw as both teams will consider a point a good reaust this point of the season.

 

The win against Reading should set us up for a strong finish to the season and two home draws will see us all hoping that Wigan will send Villa down last game.

 

A point against Stoke and we can break out the champers, looking forward to next season.

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[quote user="Indy"]

No one can predict these last 4 games, Wigan have been playing some good attacking football but all points towards a Spurs win, Sunderland have found form and hard to score against, with Villa beind a team which lets in 2 per game this has draw all over it and Stoke against us is going to the a 1 goal either way game, might even be a draw as both teams will consider a point a good reaust this point of the season.

 

The win against Reading should set us up for a strong finish to the season and two home draws will see us all hoping that Wigan will send Villa down last game.

 

A point against Stoke and we can break out the champers, looking forward to next season.

[/quote]

Agree totally, still think the team in 18th will finish with 38 points - though a draw at home to Villa would do more to ease the anguish on this thread.

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Amusing that someone points out that the relegation mini -league is meaningless and at the same time that we have not lost at home to a team outside the top 6. The league table is the only one that matters at the end of the season but the mini-league is quite an interesting aside during the season as it weights the position for  difficulty of opposition.

My guess is 38 maybe OK but one more point is probably enough as Wigan would have to win 3 out of 5 and one more win would pretty much guarantee survivial.  

 

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Wigan''s game in hand is their main hope now, but that and a Cup-Final to boot means they have to play 6 games in 4 weeks at the tired end of the season. That''s a big ask, IMO, given the teams they have to play. The final game against Villa also means that both can''t get 3 points. As long as City are 1 point above one and 2 points above the other, we can''t be relegated on the final day (whatever happens at ManCity). A couple of draws should guarantee our safety, but it would be great if we could push on and finish mid-table again (ie. 13th or above).

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[quote user="Rock The Boat"]

This thread is the bastard offspring of the relegation mini-league thread!

 

 Reading the posts, if there is on thing clear, it is that so many predictions are way off the actual results. Every week there is at least one result that runs against the form and makes predictions a meaningless exercise, just as the relegation mini-league tables proved nothing. What will be, will be.  

We are four points off ninth place and have never been in the bottom five since the end of October last year. Despite Pants-Wetter General Purple Canary trying to create an impression that we are in some kind of relegation dogfight, the fact of the matter is that we aren''t and never have been. Yes, we had a long stretch without winning games but set against that the ten game unbeaten run and the truth is we''re a mid-table Premiership side.

Nobody outside the top six have beaten us at Carrow Road this season, and if it does happen in one of our remaining games then it will be o e of those freak results that happen from time to time. A blip. 

Ricardo told us way back in November how the season was likely to pan out and he has been spot on. Trust the old-timers like Ricardo, they''ve seen it all before and know what they''re talking about.

[/quote]

 

What ricardo said back in November was - looking at past seasons - that the three teams to go down would probably come from those then in the bottom five.There is a 100% probability that 2 of those 5 will be relegated and even money for 3 from 5.Yes there is a small chance that one team outside the present bottom 5 will drop into a relegation spot but that probability is now 10-1 for Norwich City. That''s why I feel fairly comfortable with my prediction.As with many other things ricardo says that looks to be spot on. But he didn''t rule out the possibility of a team outside the bottom five getting sucked into a relegation battle.You do realise that a team can be in danger of relegation without in the end being relegated? If you are still finding it hard to grasp this concept perhaps Chris Hughton can explain it to you. He certainly thinks we are in a relegation scrap. Or Alan Pardew at Newcastle. Another team outside the bottom five in  November but now with only four games left still needing points to ensure safety.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Since the bottom five were then

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[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="Rock The Boat"]

This thread is the bastard offspring of the relegation mini-league thread!

 

 Reading the posts, if there is on thing clear, it is that so many predictions are way off the actual results. Every week there is at least one result that runs against the form and makes predictions a meaningless exercise, just as the relegation mini-league tables proved nothing. What will be, will be.  

We are four points off ninth place and have never been in the bottom five since the end of October last year. Despite Pants-Wetter General Purple Canary trying to create an impression that we are in some kind of relegation dogfight, the fact of the matter is that we aren''t and never have been. Yes, we had a long stretch without winning games but set against that the ten game unbeaten run and the truth is we''re a mid-table Premiership side.

Nobody outside the top six have beaten us at Carrow Road this season, and if it does happen in one of our remaining games then it will be o e of those freak results that happen from time to time. A blip. 

Ricardo told us way back in November how the season was likely to pan out and he has been spot on. Trust the old-timers like Ricardo, they''ve seen it all before and know what they''re talking about.

[/quote]

 

What ricardo said back in November was - looking at past seasons - that the three teams to go down would probably come from those then in the bottom five.There is a 100% probability that 2 of those 5 will be relegated and even money for 3 from 5.Yes there is a small chance that one team outside the present bottom 5 will drop into a relegation spot but that probability is now 10-1 for Norwich City. That''s why I feel fairly comfortable with my prediction.As with many other things ricardo says that looks to be spot on. But he didn''t rule out the possibility of a team outside the bottom five getting sucked into a relegation battle.You do realise that a team can be in danger of relegation without in the end being relegated? If you are still finding it hard to grasp this concept perhaps Chris Hughton can explain it to you. He certainly thinks we are in a relegation scrap. Or Alan Pardew at Newcastle. Another team outside the bottom five in  November but now with only four games left still needing points to ensure safety.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[/quote]

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[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="Rock The Boat"]

This thread is the bastard offspring of the relegation mini-league thread!

 

 Reading the posts, if there is on thing clear, it is that so many predictions are way off the actual results. Every week there is at least one result that runs against the form and makes predictions a meaningless exercise, just as the relegation mini-league tables proved nothing. What will be, will be.  

We are four points off ninth place and have never been in the bottom five since the end of October last year. Despite Pants-Wetter General Purple Canary trying to create an impression that we are in some kind of relegation dogfight, the fact of the matter is that we aren''t and never have been. Yes, we had a long stretch without winning games but set against that the ten game unbeaten run and the truth is we''re a mid-table Premiership side.

Nobody outside the top six have beaten us at Carrow Road this season, and if it does happen in one of our remaining games then it will be o e of those freak results that happen from time to time. A blip. 

Ricardo told us way back in November how the season was likely to pan out and he has been spot on. Trust the old-timers like Ricardo, they''ve seen it all before and know what they''re talking about.

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What ricardo said back in November was - looking at past seasons - that the three teams to go down would probably come from those then in the bottom five.There is a 100% probability that 2 of those 5 will be relegated and even money for 3 from 5.Yes there is a small chance that one team outside the present bottom 5 will drop into a relegation spot but that probability is now 10-1 for Norwich City. That''s why I feel fairly comfortable with my prediction.As with many other things ricardo says that looks to be spot on. But he didn''t rule out the possibility of a team outside the bottom five getting sucked into a relegation battle.You do realise that a team can be in danger of relegation without in the end being relegated? If you are still finding it hard to grasp this concept perhaps Chris Hughton can explain it to you. He certainly thinks we are in a relegation scrap. Or Alan Pardew at Newcastle. Another team outside the bottom five in  November but now with only four games left still needing points to ensure safety.

 

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[/quote]Well, I was 100% right about QPR and Reading so it just leaves the other 3 that I mentioned. Southampton, Villa and Wigan. Southampton seem to be the ones who have pulled clear and its odds on it will be one of the other two.On paper it certainly looks like Wigan but next week''s fixtures are pivotal IMO. A point at Stoke would almost nail it for us and coupled with a Wigan defeat it would be hard to see them coming past us. It will be nerve jangling until the end but we didn''t expect anything different last August did we?

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