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PurpleCanary

THE RUN-IN

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As you know Ricardo teams with new managers often get a few unexpected results. As for the other teams I mentioned I am going by current form,

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[quote user="Vanwink"]As you know Ricardo teams with new managers often get a few unexpected results. As for the other teams I mentioned I am going by current form,[/quote]There will be lots of unexpected results in the next few weeks and NCFC won''t be immune to this.

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I wouldn''t count on beating Reading. If they have to beat us to stay alive they will be up for it. Glad we don''t have a game against QPR as sometimes relegated teams playing with no fear can be a nightmare.

Interesting if Wigan and Villa can both stay up with a point on the last day. How will the FA ensure fair play given the money involved?

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[quote user="Sons of Boadicea"]Ricardo - Did not use the predictor, just looked at each teams run in, have not tried to manipulate the result in any way, as i said i have not over analysed the fixtures......got the Villa defeat to Liverpool right (one out of however many aint bad!!....)[/quote]Yet you manage to Analise us to get us beat by both Stoke and Villa.

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Not sure what your problem with me is Ricardo, have I said we will be relegated?, all I am saying is in my opinion we need seven points from seven games to stay up, more than happy to be wrong about that. It would appear having an opinion is not allowed, without side swipes an abuse, first you suggest I have manipulated the results, then resort to the "anal" comment, as I say not really sure what your problem is....

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[quote user="Sons of Boadicea"]

Not sure what your problem with me is Ricardo, have I said we will be relegated?, all I am saying is in my opinion we need seven points from seven games to stay up, more than happy to be wrong about that. It would appear having an opinion is not allowed, without side swipes an abuse, first you suggest I have manipulated the results, then resort to the "anal" comment, as I say not really sure what your problem is....

[/quote]I have no problem with you at all SOB. Your opinion is that we need 41 points and mine is that at least 5 teams won''t get 40 points. Lets see who is right.

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[quote user="Vanwink"]Broad slim, Villa have 10 points from their last seven games, Wigan have 11 points from their last eight games, the only team on current form unlikely to get to forty points is Sunderland, it is them we will be in a dog fight with, they have a better goal difference than us and a new manager. It all depends on if they get a bounce from getting a new man in![/quote]Hardly clever using selected stats so it''s not a well made point. Why not use them all......Form from the last ten games, average pooints and estimated points total if form is maintained....

                      P            Pts      (last ten)      ave        est totalS''oton            31          34           13            1.3           43          Stoke            31           34            5             0.5           39Norwich        31           34            9             0.9           40N''castle         31           33           13            1.3           42S''land            31           31            9             0.9           37Wigan           30           30            12           1.2            40A''Villa          31            30            11           1.1            38QPR            30            23            13           1.3            33Reading        31            23           10           1.0            30If current form is maintained, there will be five teams with under 40 pts and City won''t be one of them. Apart from Stoke, there''s not much difference between any of the teams. Sunderland and Stoke are the ones with the real problems.

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I looked at the last 7 games for Villa cos they have 7 games left, I looked at the last 8 for Wigan as they have 8 games left! Seems like a very good comparator to me,

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More important than how many points needed is the distance maintained from the bottom three.  We are at the limit of where we need to be.  Four above the bottom three is safe,  three is not.   In other words if we drop one point in relation to the bottom three clubs, we are in the position on the last day of the season needing points against Man City.    So in another words, we are only one point clear of problems, not four.  The margin is now too fine for comfort.   We need points and soon.

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[quote user="lappinitup"][quote user="Vanwink"]Broad slim, Villa have 10 points from their last seven games, Wigan have 11 points from their last eight games, the only team on current form unlikely to get to forty points is Sunderland, it is them we will be in a dog fight with, they have a better goal difference than us and a new manager. It all depends on if they get a bounce from getting a new man in![/quote]Hardly clever using selected stats so it''s not a well made point. Why not use them all......Form from the last ten games, average pooints and estimated points total if form is maintained....

                      P            Pts      (last ten)      ave        est totalS''oton            31          34           13            1.3           43          Stoke            31           34            5             0.5           39Norwich        31           34            9             0.9           40N''castle         31           33           13            1.3           42S''land            31           31            9             0.9           37Wigan           30           30            12           1.2            40A''Villa          31            30            11           1.1            38QPR            30            23            13           1.3            33Reading        31            23           10           1.0            30If current form is maintained, there will be five teams with under 40 pts and City won''t be one of them. Apart from Stoke, there''s not much difference between any of the teams. Sunderland and Stoke are the ones with the real problems.[/quote]I notice it confirms my prediction that 5 teams won''t get 40 points.I''ve had a look at the recent form tables and it seems that Villa have played 4 of their last 6 league games at home.Guess what, so have Wigan and Sunderland.

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The ''Run-in'' means nothing to us.The real run in is Swansea, Reading, WBA and Villa at home.I see no reason why we cant win all of them plus play out a few bore away draws.Have any of you looked at our home form? its far superior then most teams below us.I see no reason for a top 10 finish.

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[quote user="cityislife"]The ''Run-in'' means nothing to us.The real run in is Swansea, Reading, WBA and Villa at home.I see no reason why we cant win all of them plus play out a few bore away draws.Have any of you looked at our home form? its far superior then most teams below us.I see no reason for a top 10 finish.[/quote]Exactaf*ckingmundo. HOME form is where we will probably survive this season. 4 out of the 7 remaining games are at home and all winnable.

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[quote user="York Canary"][quote user="cityislife"]The ''Run-in'' means nothing to us.The real run in is Swansea, Reading, WBA and Villa at home.I see no reason why we cant win all of them plus play out a few bore away draws.Have any of you looked at our home form? its far superior then most teams below us.I see no reason for a top 10 finish.[/quote]Exactaf*ckingmundo. HOME form is where we will probably survive this season. 4 out of the 7 remaining games are at home and all winnable. [/quote]Oh dear, a positive post, obviously a Binner on a wind up.[;)]

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Is there such a thing as a new manager bounce ? These people were kind / sad enough to try to work it out statistically.

http://footballformlabs.wordpress.com/tag/new-manage-bounce/

Conclusions :

"at home at least it does seem that teams playing under a new manager can perform better than the bookies expect, but only slightly"

"When a new manager takes his team on the road life becomes significantly harder and backing them to win away in their opening five games has produced a massive 22% loss, while the home win has been just 1% down. This includes an 11% profit backing the home side in 227 La Liga games."

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Thanks for that Lappinitup, my "fag packet" musings and your stats are not a million miles apart (the estimates in your post in brackets)

Southampton 44 (43)

Stoke 39 (39)

Norwich 41 (40)

Newcastle 40 (42)

Sunderland 40 (37)

Wigan 39 (40)

Villa 41 (38)

Did not consider QPR or Reading

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[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="York Canary"][quote user="cityislife"]The ''Run-in'' means nothing to us.The real run in is Swansea, Reading, WBA and Villa at home.I see no reason why we cant win all of them plus play out a few bore away draws.Have any of you looked at our home form? its far superior then most teams below us.I see no reason for a top 10 finish.[/quote]Exactaf*ckingmundo. HOME form is where we will probably survive this season. 4 out of the 7 remaining games are at home and all winnable. [/quote]Oh dear, a positive post, obviously a Binner on a wind up.[;)][/quote]Now I''ve been called many things before, but..!! Nothing wrong with being positive Ricardo as you can attest. You must always find the silver linings and work on the good things! No time to be glum and mope about. There''ll always be those misers ready to pounce on the slightest bit of negative thought etc, but what is the point honestly? If our manager was the same, if our chief exec or our cook or the majority of our fans in Carra'' etc were the same, we''d TRULY shafted. We pull together through the tough times (which we''ve been blessed to avoid for a few years now) and come out of it better off hopefully, but at the very least still together and still as NCFC. Let''s get onto the next game and go for it. We can give anyone a game at home. If we pull through this then we''re looking at potentially one of the best summers we''ve had in god knows how long my friends..The last time we failed to get points at home was against Man City - 29th December 2012. WE''VE LOST 3 AT HOME ALL SEASON - Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool

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[quote user="Sons of Boadicea"]

My "back of a fag packet assessment", without over analysis is:

Stoke - 39 Points (4 Defeats Man U, QPR, Spurs and Southampton), 2 Draws (Villa and Sunderland) and one win (us)

Villa - 41 Points (3 Defeats Liverpool, Man U, Chelsea, 2 Draws (Stoke and Wigan) and 3 wins (Fulham, Sunderland and us)

Newcastle - 40 Points 3 Defeats (WBA, WHU, QPR), 3 Draws (Sunderland, Liverpool, Arsenal) and 1 win (Fulham)

Sunderland - 40 Points 3 Defeats (Chelsea, Villa, Spurs), 3 Draws (Newcastle, Everton, Stoke) and 1 win (Southampton)

Wigan - 39 Points 3 Defeats (QPR, Man City, Arsenal), 3 Draws (WHU, Spurs, Villa) and 2 wins (WBA and Swansea)

This shows that even with our rivals playing eachother it is possible for each of them to reach the 39 point mark, which means we need to get at least 6 points from our last 7 games.

[/quote]

 

Putting to one side the fact that you''re being extremely positive with regards to Villa picking up points in 5 of their last 7 games and slightly less so for Wigan in 5 out of 8 (including predicting them to win away at WBA who have a very good home record. 

 

Your 3 draws and 1 win for Sunderland only gets them to 37 points, not 40 and the 3 draws and 1 win for Newcastle only gets them to 39 points and not 40.

 

That''s 4 teams (excluding QPR & Reading) not reaching 40 points and what about Southampton?[:^)]

 

 

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[quote user="priceyrice"][quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="Graham Paddons Beard"]

 

My question back would be this. With a "new manager" bounce, how much more likely would 6 points (and £100m) be? I cannot believe that the thought hasn''t crossed McNally''s mind. Lose to Swansea, and maybe a couple of million quid to , say, DiMatteo, to keep us up, would look like small beer against next years income.

 

[/quote]

 

GPB, Sunderland MIGHT get a small lift from a new manager but equally they might not. The bottom line is they are playing very badly at the moment and have a daunting set of away games. Based on  the run-in I think they are the likeliest third team to go down. As to us, I do not want Hughton sacked now. I regard our troubles as stemming as much from what didn''t hapen in January - which I assume was not Hughton''s fault - as from his apparent failings.

Even if we went down I would be happy for him to stay on, unless the board had decided from behind the scenes stuff that he wasn''t up to it, or if there was a clearly better alternative. Which Poyet might be.

[/quote]

 

I am curious as to why you think our problems stem from our lack of activity in Jan. KK has come in and looked good, scored the winner in the game against Everton. It''s also almost exactly the same team as those who went on the 10 game unbeaten run.


I think complacency is a much more likely cause. Happened once we reached 40 points last season and has happened again after appearing to be safe this year.

[/quote]

 

priceyrice, I don''t particularly want to clog this thread up with a discussion on the transfer window. We are where we are. I only mentioned it because someone suggested getting rid of Hughton and in his defence I said I believed his hands had at least partly been tied in the second half of the season by January being mishandled. It is a complicated argument, some of which can be found later on in the "Is this the best board we''ve had...ever?" thread.

But in short there were three obvious gaps in the squad - a third central defender of PL quality, an all-purpose central midfielder, and a goal poacher. And we know Hughton had identified two of those gaps (and so asked for serious money to be made available) because we almost certainly bid £2m for Curtis Davies and made confirmed bids of around £7m each for van Wolfswinkel and Hooper.

Instead we got a back-up goalkeeper (fair enough), a back-up target man in Becchio (while letting Morison go) and a wild card wing-striker in Kamara. I don''t disagree that Kamara (the equaliser rather than the winner!) has added a little something but we in effect spent no money and left the gaps unfilled. And the point, as I assume Hughton realised, is that the team that did so well up to December had started to run on empty and needed bolstering.

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Taken from a Villa website:-

"Just worked out who has the hardest run in out of the bottom 9 teams based on current points, current form and results in the reverse games.

The results came out like this, Hardest is 1

1. Sunderland

2. Aston Villa

3. Stoke

4. Reading

5. Wigan

6. QPR

7. Newcastle

8. Norwich

9. Southampton

Based on the current table we have the 4th hardest run in, based on current form we have the 2nd easiest, but on results in the reverse fixtures we have the hardest, we only picked up 5 points from the 7 games we have left."

I''m not sure exactly how his calculations came about, but interesting to see how the ''working out'' by a fan of another club views the Norwich run-in.

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That Villa fan run-in assessment accords pretty well with what I came up with when I looked at the various fixture lists, except that I''d put Villa down around halfway. Sunderland have Chelsea(a), Newcastle(a), Everton(h), and Spurs(a). Like Villa and Wigan, they now only have 3 home matches left. Even our 3-4 point lead over those teams seems a lot to make up as long as we can win one of our 4 home matches and pick up 2-3 draws.

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forget what I said (in another thread) about QPR having a large say on who goes down with them. of the 7 remaining fixtures for Stoke 5 are against the teams with 34 points or less. (Villa & City at home; Soton, Sunderland & QPR away)

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[quote user="unique"]Taken from a Villa website:-

"Just worked out who has the hardest run in out of the bottom 9 teams based on current points, current form and results in the reverse games.

The results came out like this, Hardest is 1

1. Sunderland

2. Aston Villa

3. Stoke

4. Reading

5. Wigan

6. QPR

7. Newcastle

8. Norwich

9. Southampton

Based on the current table we have the 4th hardest run in, based on current form we have the 2nd easiest, but on results in the reverse fixtures we have the hardest, we only picked up 5 points from the 7 games we have left."

I''m not sure exactly how his calculations came about, but interesting to see how the ''working out'' by a fan of another club views the Norwich run-in.[/quote]We picked up 11 points from reverse fixtures of the 7 teams left to play.5 points from those in the list but from only 3 games and 2 of those were away from home.Whatever way you look at it I wouldn''t swap our run in for anybody elses.

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Arguably, last season we also looked somewhat more likely to score in most matches. However much we play the prediction game, we look a shadow of the team this time last year. Without momentum and associated confidence we would struggle to beat anyone at the moment. Reading is the only match I think we stand a fighting chance of finishing on top.

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There is a lot in what you say Highland, the team is a shadow of its former self and it is crucial that we get behind the boys like it is a cup final on Saturday, my fear is there are still too many fans who who are overconfident about the next few games and again the atmosphere will be poor.

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