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PurpleCanary

THE RUN-IN

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[quote user="Herman "]On the brink of relegation?? 6 points clear is not on the brink yet.[/quote]

Exactly so, Herman. We haven''t been in the bottom five since October and we won''t be come the end of the season. I predict that we are already safe as Wigan will not get enough points. And both Newcastle and Villa will finish below us.

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Its all ifs and maybees with twists and turns along the way. The stark reality is IF we lose all our remaining games it will be between us and Wigan. Should they get the 2 wins to get level on points then their GD would be better than ours. I think Villa tonight and saturday will be pivitol. If Villa win both then we will only stay up because other teams cannoie Wigan cannot scrape the 2 wins needed. I am not a Hughton out brigade, far from it but i have been very unimpressed with our form, tactics and performances since Christmas. Should we survive which i hope and think we will, by the skin of our teath then there has to be some significant changes in the summer over and above RVW. I dont think i could stand watching another season like this

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I must say this punditry lark has given me a new respect for Mark Lawrenson''s ghost writer. Some judgments from only four weeks ago:Newcastle: 33 points. Fulham, Sunderland, Liverpool and Arsenal at home; WBA, West Ham and QPR away. Two very winnable home games and not a single difficult away game. Unless Europa League tiredness is a factor they will get at least two wins and some draws.

 

Ooops![:$]Sunderland: 31 points. Everton, Stoke and Southampton at home; Chelsea, Newcastle, Villa and Spurs away. There might be a new-manager bump (unless it''s Terry Connor) but there is only one game there on current form they might win. They could easily lose all four away. At best they could get one win and three draws, taking them to 37. Only if they win two will they have a chance of getting to 40.

 

Even before tonight ooops again![:$]

 

That said:Wigan: 30 points. Spurs, Swansea and Villa at home; QPR, Man City, West Ham, WBA and Arsenal away. Probably the hardest club to call. They have done this before (such as last season) and seem to have luck going for them. They have just won the two they had to, and still have two very winnable home games left, but their next three are away, and they don''t have one obviously easy away game left. One away win and they can get to 40; no away wins and they won''t.A touch less embarrassing. Wigan have got one point from their three away games and now only have WBA and Arsenal left.

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Baring a miracle Wigan will be relegated by losing at the Emirates to Arsenal on the Tuesday 14th May.

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Why do people think ist so outlandish that Wigan will beat WBA away and Swansea home. Tow teams with nothing to play for which makes their results highly unpredictable. I would not be at all surprised to see Wigan win both.

We cannot rely on them not picking up points. We need to ensure survival ourselves and the best way to do that will be by beating Villa on Saturday. It may not mathematically ensure survival (although it will if they lose tonight as well) but it effectively will.

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[quote user="Jim Smith"]Why do people think ist so outlandish that Wigan will beat WBA away and Swansea home. Tow teams with nothing to play for which makes their results highly unpredictable. I would not be at all surprised to see Wigan win both. We cannot rely on them not picking up points. We need to ensure survival ourselves and the best way to do that will be by beating Villa on Saturday. It may not mathematically ensure survival (although it will if they lose tonight as well) but it effectively will.[/quote]

 

Don''t know Jim. Neither do I know why they think it''s so  outlandish that we will beat WBA at home. Some people seem to think that we can''t beat WBA at home but Wigan can beat them away. While that''s possible the thinking behind it is not really sane.

 

 

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I was going to update this after the Villa-Sunderland game but I can''t find the result - just some obviously spoof reports claiming it was a 6-1 home win!

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[quote user="PurpleCanary"]I was going to update this after the Villa-Sunderland game but I can''t find the result - just some obviously spoof reports claiming it was a 6-1 home win![/quote]

I’m happy to report Purple that all is well. Villa were in fact disqualified because their manager was wearing glasses , and had his trousers tucked into his socks. Poor form all round.

 

I’ve also checked with Those That Know Best and we are in fact scheduled to get 18 points from our remaining games.

 

It’s nice out here. I can’t feel any pain. We are having Muffins tomorrow.  Hello Clouds, Hello Sky.

 

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[quote user="Graham Paddons Beard"]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"]I was going to update this after the Villa-Sunderland game but I can''t find the result - just some obviously spoof reports claiming it was a 6-1 home win![/quote]

I’m happy to report Purple that all is well. Villa were in fact disqualified because their manager was wearing glasses , and had his trousers tucked into his socks. Poor form all round.

 

I’ve also checked with Those That Know Best and we are in fact scheduled to get 18 points from our remaining games.

 

It’s nice out here. I can’t feel any pain. We are having Muffins tomorrow.  Hello Clouds, Hello Sky.

 

[/quote]

 

Channelling lake district canary are we, GPB?![;)]The one serious thing to say is that Villa were the only team with a goal difference much worse than ours. There was a good chance that if we ended up level on points we might finish ahead on GD. Probably not now. Theirs is -22 to our -21. If they catch us on points they will probably be marked ahead on GD. Sunderland''s GD was so much better than ours that tonight''s hammering hasn''t changed that.

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[quote user="Herman "]On the brink of relegation?? 6 points clear is not on the brink yet.[/quote]

I guess it''s an interesting metaphysical question as to when we might be ''on the brink''. You might be right. Perhaps, we''re only on the brink if we need to get a result at City.

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No it is much more simpler than that. Wigan are on the brink. We are a couple of steps away from it. There, easy to understand:-)

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The pressure is obviously on Wigan.

But still the win for Villa, still leaves them with quite a bit of pressure, failure to beat us (draw = 38pts) and a defeat to Chelsea. Would leave Wigan to get 3pts from WBA/Swansea/Arsenal to go into a final day decider.

Newcastle probably next falls the big pressure, Newcastle with 2nd worst away record playing 2 away games followed by Arsenal.

Sunderland whilst home games against Stoke and Southampton, one win will be enough. But if failure to win, will leave them an away tie against Spuds.

Must admit, I would take a point if someone''s offering it against Villa right now.

Out of the 5 who would you take right now?

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I''m happy to report that I was at Carrow Road this evening blissfully unaware of the events at Villa Park. Now thjat I have found out I''d like to ask those that know best whether this result has changed anything we need to do to stay up?

 

 

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Wigan''s ask has of course not changed, but surely they are under more pressure now being 5pts behind their nearest side, Newcastle.

Oddly, the Villa win tonight was the only result that would see us retain14th place, yet it isn''t really what we ''wanted''. It does definitely keep more sides in the mix, though means we can''t secure PL status on Saturday whatever we do.

One thing the result does mean is that Villa perhaps don''t need the win as badly as they might have done.

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So that result pretty much confirms Wigan''s relegation and we can now concentrate on finishing as high as possible. We never were in real danger of relegation.

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So that result pretty much confirms Wigan''s relegation and we can now concentrate on finishing as high as possible. We never were in real danger of relegation.

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By way of an update of my own "predictions", my record for he last 4/5 games is not to bad, the only team that has surprised me is Sunderland, and the only team that I have got 100% right so far in terms of points gained overall and points from each of our games is City. My predications thus far are (actual points gained in brackets)

Stoke -  4 points from 4 games (6) (Had them drawing with Villa (Lost) and losing at QPR (won)

Southampton - 7 points from 4 games (5)

City - 4 Points from 4 games (4)

Newcastle - 5 Points from 4 games (4)

Sunderland - 2 Points from 4 games (6)

Wigan - 2 Points from 4 games (2) (Had them losing at QPR (Draw - last kick of the game and drawing at WHU (lost)

Villa - 7 points from 7 games (7) (Had them drawing with Stoke (Won) winning against Fulham (Draw)

Looking at the remaining games for each team, Newcastle and Wigan look vunerable to me, Newcastle have to recover from a 6-0 drubbing with games at WHU, QPR and home to Arsenal. Wigan have points to make up with an FA Cup final n the middle of their run in, after all the Villa angst it could be they put the final nail in the coffin for Wigan on the last day of the season.....

 

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We have two home games.Scenario of going down or staying up;Win Win "Stay up"Draw Draw "Stay up"Win Draw "Stay up"Win Lose "Stay up"Draw Lose "Could go either way"Lose Lose "Go down" So it is pretty much in our favour.

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This Saturday:If we win and Wigan fail to win we are mathematically safe. Wigan could overtake us but in doing so would ensure that Villa could not.If we win and Wigan win we can still be overtaken by Wigan and Villa. However for that to happen Villa would need to take at least a point off Wigan, forcing Wigan to beat Swansea at home and Arsenal away. Failing to beat Arsenal would mean we could not be caught by both.That said, a win for us on Saturday would also increase our chances of finishing ahead of Newcastle.A draw for us and a defeat for Wigan will not settle the issue mathematically; nor will draws for both of us.

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[quote user="PurpleCanary"]This Saturday:If we win and Wigan fail to win we are mathematically safe. Wigan could overtake us but in doing so would ensure that Villa could not.If we win and Wigan win we can still be overtaken by Wigan and Villa. However for that to happen Villa would need to take at least a point off Wigan, forcing Wigan to beat Swansea at home and Arsenal away. Failing to beat Arsenal would mean we could not be caught by both.That said, a win for us on Saturday would also increase our chances of finishing ahead of Newcastle.A draw for us and a defeat for Wigan will not settle the issue mathematically; nor will draws for both of us.[/quote]

How can this be Purple? Shirley not!

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[quote user="PurpleCanary"]This Saturday:If we win and Wigan fail to win we are mathematically safe. Wigan could overtake us but in doing so would ensure that Villa could not.If we win and Wigan win we can still be overtaken by Wigan and Villa. However for that to happen Villa would need to take at least a point off Wigan, forcing Wigan to beat Swansea at home and Arsenal away. Failing to beat Arsenal would mean we could not be caught by both.That said, a win for us on Saturday would also increase our chances of finishing ahead of Newcastle.A draw for us and a defeat for Wigan will not settle the issue mathematically; nor will draws for both of us.[/quote]

 

Hey ho.At the risk of increasing the suicidal tone here, even if we beat WBA and finish on 41 points (assuming a loss to Man City) that may still see us relegated. Stoke, Sunderland and Newcastle can all get to 41. And so can Villa and Wigan, by Villa getting a point at home to Chelsea and losing to Wigan, and Wigan also beating Swansea, or indeed Arsenal. Goal difference did favour us over Villa until they put six past Sunderland.

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[quote user="PurpleCanary"]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"]This Saturday:If we win and Wigan fail to win we are mathematically safe. Wigan could overtake us but in doing so would ensure that Villa could not.If we win and Wigan win we can still be overtaken by Wigan and Villa. However for that to happen Villa would need to take at least a point off Wigan, forcing Wigan to beat Swansea at home and Arsenal away. Failing to beat Arsenal would mean we could not be caught by both.That said, a win for us on Saturday would also increase our chances of finishing ahead of Newcastle.A draw for us and a defeat for Wigan will not settle the issue mathematically; nor will draws for both of us.[/quote]

 

Hey ho.At the risk of increasing the suicidal tone here, even if we beat WBA and finish on 41 points (assuming a loss to Man City) that may still see us relegated. Stoke, Sunderland and Newcastle can all get to 41. And so can Villa and Wigan, by Villa getting a point at home to Chelsea and losing to Wigan, and Wigan also beating Swansea, or indeed Arsenal. Goal difference did favour us over Villa until they put six past Sunderland.

[/quote]

 

The GOOD NEWS[:)][:D][:)] version is as follows:We beat WBA and lose to Man City and finish on 41 points.Villa lose at home to Chelsea, to stay on 40.Wigan beat Swansea and lose to Arsenal, reaching 38, or draw to get to 39.Then however the Wigan-Villa game goes we must stay up. A win either way leaves the losing team below 41, and a draw leaves Wigan short on 39 or 40.

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I have this kind of scenario Purple with a Wigan draw against Swansea. But.....it depends of course on us beating WB. Think it is possible of course

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By way of another update, and despite "criticism" from Ricardo an others, again I got the result against Villa correct, I also got the Wigan result at Wigan correct. City remain the only team that I have predicted 100% correctly in terms of points gained/results achieved. I was not at the game yesterday so cannot comment on the performance, however I still feel that Newcastle are looking vunerable and despite their win annd my prediction that they will win against Swansea they will struggle post the FA Cup final. I only hope that I get one of my City predictions positively wrong (point against WBA and none against Man City).....

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