THE RUN-IN

[spudgfsh 0]

I just spent some time predicting the remaining PL matches using the BBC predictor (something I refuse to do normally as I think I''ll jinx city).

I''ve done it a couple of times and every time the number of points needed to stay up is between 34 and 36.

Win one of our remaining home games and we''ll be on 37 points.

even if we were to draw all of our remaining home games we would reach 38.

remember the only teams to beat us at Carra Rud this season is Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool.

[BOO 0]

Between 34 and 36 to stay up eh?

[Yelloow Since 72 54]

I think it could be, given the run-ins Sunderland Villa and Wigan have. All of them only have 3 home matches remaining. Probability is still with City, but a win this Saturday wouldn''yt half help! OTBC!

[spudgfsh 0]

I did find myself being hard on Reading (getting between 2 and 4 points from 21) and soft on QPR (sometimes enough for them to stay up).

in one scenario villa and sunderland would be relegated with reading.

There are a couple of matches that seem to have more of an impact than others

Wigan v QPR

Villa v Sunderland

Wigan v Villa

[Yelloow Since 72 54]

I''d add City v Villa to those. The time has come, methinks!

[spudgfsh 0]

not for city it isn''t. we have four home games Swansea, Villa, WBA and Reading. Now I''m not saying we''re going to win all of those games but we have only lost three times at home and I would be very surprised if we didn''t get at least 4 points from them.

[Faded Jaded Semi Plastic SOB 1,017]

Cheers norfolkbroadslim, I made the mistake of starting both Sunderland and Newcastle on 34 points, whereas they are on 31 points and 33 points respectively, as I asid in my post I did not over analyse home form, away form etc, I just factored in some surprise results...

[ricardo 7,336]

[quote user="Sons of Boadicea"]

Cheers norfolkbroadslim, I made the mistake of starting both Sunderland and Newcastle on 34 points, whereas they are on 31 points and 33 points respectively, as I asid in my post I did not over analyse home form, away form etc, I just factored in some surprise results...

[/quote]Sorry to be a pain SOB, but why not factor in a surprise result for City?

[Yelloow Since 72 54]

Swansea wouldn''t go amiss, Ricardo! OTBC!

[ricardo 7,336]

[quote user="Yelloow Since 72"]Swansea wouldn''t go amiss, Ricardo! OTBC![/quote]Every chance IMO, but every pint is precious and a draw wouldn''t be a disaster. If Wigan and Villa lose on Saturday that would then put them 2 wins behind us with 6 games to play. It gets harder and harder to come from behind as the games run out.

[CambridgeCanary 0]

[quote user="Vanwink"]Between 34 and 36 to stay up eh?[/quote]

Well Rednapp has said 37 is the target for QPR to stay.

Frankly I prefer his knowledge of football over yours.

[Highland Canary 76]

Cambridge - I too rate Harry - do you think he''ll keep QPR up?

[ROBFLECK 132]

I rate him too Highland, but I hope they go down...

[Canary Willo 0]

We should not get too hung up on other teams, we have 4 home games, all 4 winnable IMO.

So, if we can take 7 points from Swans, Reading WBA and Villa, we will be fin. With our home record and providing;

• Hughton picks a team which sets out to win.
• The crowd responds.

I have no doubt these 4 games will yield the 7 needed. We are v fortunate to have these type of games left at home. I know people are saying teams are fighting but Reading and/or Villa will get relegated. When this scenario happens, luck is never with you. I predict at least one win there and if we take the game to the other two we should yield 4 from 6.

Just an opinion, but I agree with Ricardo, too may teams playing each other with a lot riding on the game, at both ends of the table, thank the lord for these 4 games now!!!!

[PurpleCanary 5,553]

[quote user="CambridgeCanary"][quote user="Vanwink"]Between 34 and 36 to stay up eh?[/quote]

Well Rednapp has said 37 is the target for QPR to stay.

Frankly I prefer his knowledge of football over yours.[/quote]

Not sure when he said that (and footie managers said loads of things for public consumption they don''t believe) but now for 37 to be safe for QPR it would in practice need two out of Wigan, Villa and Sunderland to get only one more win each this season. If Wigan get two wins and a draw from eight they get to 37; if Villa get two wins and a draw from seven they get to 37; if Sunderland get two wins and no draws they get to 37. Apart from Reading all the other teams will get to or beyond 37.

[star_manic 0]

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="Yelloow Since 72"]Swansea wouldn''t go amiss, Ricardo! OTBC![/quote]Every chance IMO, but every pint is precious and a draw wouldn''t be a disaster. If Wigan and Villa lose on Saturday that would then put them 2 wins behind us with 6 games to play. It gets harder and harder to come from behind as the games run out.[/quote]couldn''t agree more Rickeee, every pint is very precious. especially the one currently being consumed. (not literally, only just had me breakfast, LOL ).[:D]

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

QPR and Reading are on 23 points with 7 games to go.

 

I think Rednapp has set 37 points as a target simply because if he went for 38 points, that requires them to win 5 of the 7 games which is simply unbelievable.  To get 14 more points they need 4 wins and 2 draws = slightly less unbelievable.  But to think they''ll do it is still insanely optimistic and I doubt 37 is going to be good enough anyway.

 

Reality is that the QPR and Reading players now know they are going to get relegated.  Especially the QPR players are now playing for themselves to try to put themselves in the shop window.  And we all know that teams do badly when players are playing for themselves not the team.

It''s now all about the 3rd relegation place and everyone on 34 points down is in the mix but any neutral would put Sunderland, Wigan and Villa at highest risk.

[dpit 1]

Get off your knees all of you!

Stop tugging your forelocks, doffing your caps and wetting your pants.

We are not in a relegation battle we are not little old Norwich!

[Jim Smith 2,314]

I have always believed it will take 40 points to be safe and i still believe that. the only club that has given me hope that it might be a bit less is Sunderland but then even they have 2 winnable home games in a row towards the end of the season which could change things very quickly.

The simple point is that if we can get at lest 2 wins and a draw from our games against Swansea, Villa, Reading, WBA and Stoke then we should be fine. Less than that and its going to get nervy.

What also can;t be underestimated is the significance of who we get those points against. Stoke will have their home game with us down as one of their best chances of 3 points. Draw or beat them and suddenly they will look very vulnerable as they may not win any of their other home games. Villa at home is also the proverbial 6 pointer as a win for us there will see a 6 point swing between us and them and probably put us out of their reach. That is certainly a game we must not lose as even if we win a couple of the others Villa could still catch us.

The final unknown is the impact on form of teams having nothing to play for. Indeed this season this is even more relevant with it looking likely that United will have won the league several weeks before the end of the season. Not only might they be coasting for the last few weeks but some of the other big teams might become more unpredictable as the champions league places get sorted out and we have already seen from recent weeks that whereas previously you could rely on the likes of Chelsea rolling over the lower ranked clubs that may no longer be the case. they have really screwed a few teams over with that team selection and defeat at Southampton and with their UEFA Cup and FA Cup commitments i don;t necessarily trust them not to do the same later in the season. Thankfully they are at home against Sunderland so even if they rest players they should not lose but its a bit of a worry.

I would also think that our home games v Swansea and WBA may be more easily winnable than those against Reading or Villa as neither of the former have anything at all to play for.

[Jim Smith 2,314]

I''ve just done the predictor thingy and had Stoke down on 37 and us finishing 15th with 42 points. That assumed us drawing with Stoke and Swansea and beating WBA and Reading. Losses to Arsenal, Villa and Man City. West Ham only got out of trouble by beating Reading on the last day although nobody seems to be mentioning them!

[ricardo 7,336]

[quote user="star_manic"][quote user="ricardo"][quote user="Yelloow Since 72"]Swansea wouldn''t go amiss, Ricardo! OTBC![/quote]Every chance IMO, but every pint is precious and a draw wouldn''t be a disaster. If Wigan and Villa lose on Saturday that would then put them 2 wins behind us with 6 games to play. It gets harder and harder to come from behind as the games run out.[/quote]couldn''t agree more Rickeee, every pint is very precious. especially the one currently being consumed. (not literally, only just had me breakfast, LOL ).[:D][/quote]

LOL Freudian slip on my part.[:D]

[ricardo 7,336]

[quote user="Highland Canary"]Cambridge - I too rate Harry - do you think he''ll keep QPR up?[/quote]

Bookies will lay you 6-1 if you think they''ll stay up.By contrast City are 1-50.

To go down City 12-1QPR  1-16A nice double if you think City will go down and QPR stay up......... pats £910 for a tenner stake.[:)]

[PurpleCanary 5,553]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"]

So, 40 points the safety mark again eh! Who''d have thought it.[;)]OK, it might be 38 or 39 will be safe, but with very little to spare. So taking 40 points and with winnable games in red (and some games are in red for both  teams, because that is football!):Reading will not get beyond the mid-30s. Nor will QPR, unless they win five out of the last eight. Southampton (34 points), with a nice last seven, will get past 40. That leaves:Newcastle: 33 points. Fulham, Sunderland, Liverpool and Arsenal at home; WBA, West Ham and QPR away. Two very winnable home games and not a single difficult away game. Unless Europa League tiredness is a factor they will get at least two wins and some draws.Stoke: 34 points. Villa, Man Utd, Norwich and Spurs at home; QPR, Sunderland and Southampton away. In awful form and not scoring (does that sound familiar?) but four winnable games there, and they draw a lot. At least one win and three draws should be not be beyond them. Pulis''s experience a bonus.Norwich: 34 points. Swansea, Reading, Villa and WBA at home; Arsenal, Stoke and Man City away. Similar to Stoke. Lousy form and no goals. Three winnable homes but on current form that should - dispassionately - translate into one win only and a couple of draws. And one point from nine away at best. Which makes 39 or 40 points.Wigan: 30 points. Spurs, Swansea and Villa at home; QPR, Man City, West Ham, WBA and Arsenal away. Probably the hardest club to call. They have done this before (such as last season) and seem to have luck going for them. They have just won the two they had to, and still have two very winnable home games left, but their next three are away, and they don''t have one obviously easy away game left. One away win and they can get to 40; no away wins and they won''t.Sunderland: 31 points. Everton, Stoke and Southampton at home; Chelsea, Newcastle, Villa and Spurs away. There might be a new-manager bump (unless it''s Terry Connor) but there is only one game there on current form they might win. They could easily lose all four away. At best they could get one win and three draws, taking them to 37. Only if they win two will they have a chance of getting to 40.Aston Villa: 30 points. Fulham, Sunderland and Chelsea at home; Stoke, Man Utd, Norwich and Wigan away. An optimistic view would be four winnable games, but they now need to win three. Two wins and two draws looks likelier, taking them to 38. Looming large is the the last game of their season, at Wigan. Both cannot win.In short if Norwich win only one more game but get some draws they should stay up. Two wins would make it certain. Whether these calculations should have been necessary is another matter.

[/quote]

 

A week on, some probabilities have become near-certainties. Southampton and Newcastle will get beyond 40 points and Reading and QPR will go down.That leaves one fallguy from the Frantic Five. Taking 40 as safe, Wigan''s position (now on 31 points) didn''t really change. A point was useful but they still look to need to win one away and two at home. Only two wins all told and - say - two draws, and they finish on 39.Villa (33) sharply improved their position, and even though they seem to blow hot and cold two wins out of their six remaining - and getting to 40 - now looks likely.Norwich (35) pretty much held their ground. Four points from the home games should be achieved. Just one away point would be a real boon. That or more than four points at home and they get to 40.Which leads on nicely to Stoke (34! I may have underestimated the trouble they are in. A home defeat to Villa is very bad news, but they still only need one win and three draws. The home game against Norwich starts to look potentially doubly significant.Sunderland''s position on 31 didn''t really change. Losing to Chelsea (and Newcastle next week) was probably factored in. Their fate will be decided by their last five games, starting with Everton at home. They still look the least likely to reach 40. Even two wins and two draws sees them fall short. But if they manage that it will probably be on the backs of good results against Stoke and Villa.Could fewer than 40 be safe? Yes. But best not to count on that.

[YankeeCanary 0]

Purple wrote: "Could fewer than 40 be safe? Yes. But best not to count on that."

 

Okay Purple, then I suppose I will have to maximize my viewing time on the Relegation Mini-League thread so that I do have something to count on.  [:D]

[ricardo 7,336]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]

So, 40 points the safety mark again eh! Who''d have thought it.[;)]OK, it might be 38 or 39 will be safe, but with very little to spare. So taking 40 points and with winnable games in red (and some games are in red for both  teams, because that is football!):Reading will not get beyond the mid-30s. Nor will QPR, unless they win five out of the last eight. Southampton (34 points), with a nice last seven, will get past 40. That leaves:Newcastle: 33 points. Fulham, Sunderland, Liverpool and Arsenal at home; WBA, West Ham and QPR away. Two very winnable home games and not a single difficult away game. Unless Europa League tiredness is a factor they will get at least two wins and some draws.Stoke: 34 points. Villa, Man Utd, Norwich and Spurs at home; QPR, Sunderland and Southampton away. In awful form and not scoring (does that sound familiar?) but four winnable games there, and they draw a lot. At least one win and three draws should be not be beyond them. Pulis''s experience a bonus.Norwich: 34 points. Swansea, Reading, Villa and WBA at home; Arsenal, Stoke and Man City away. Similar to Stoke. Lousy form and no goals. Three winnable homes but on current form that should - dispassionately - translate into one win only and a couple of draws. And one point from nine away at best. Which makes 39 or 40 points.Wigan: 30 points. Spurs, Swansea and Villa at home; QPR, Man City, West Ham, WBA and Arsenal away. Probably the hardest club to call. They have done this before (such as last season) and seem to have luck going for them. They have just won the two they had to, and still have two very winnable home games left, but their next three are away, and they don''t have one obviously easy away game left. One away win and they can get to 40; no away wins and they won''t.Sunderland: 31 points. Everton, Stoke and Southampton at home; Chelsea, Newcastle, Villa and Spurs away. There might be a new-manager bump (unless it''s Terry Connor) but there is only one game there on current form they might win. They could easily lose all four away. At best they could get one win and three draws, taking them to 37. Only if they win two will they have a chance of getting to 40.Aston Villa: 30 points. Fulham, Sunderland and Chelsea at home; Stoke, Man Utd, Norwich and Wigan away. An optimistic view would be four winnable games, but they now need to win three. Two wins and two draws looks likelier, taking them to 38. Looming large is the the last game of their season, at Wigan. Both cannot win.In short if Norwich win only one more game but get some draws they should stay up. Two wins would make it certain. Whether these calculations should have been necessary is another matter.

[/quote]

 

A week on, some probabilities have become near-certainties. Southampton and Newcastle will get beyond 40 points and Reading and QPR will go down.That leaves one fallguy from the Frantic Five. Taking 40 as safe, Wigan''s position (now on 31 points) didn''t really change. A point was useful but they still look to need to win one away and two at home. Only two wins all told and - say - two draws, and they finish on 39.Villa (33) sharply improved their position, and even though they seem to blow hot and cold two wins out of their six remaining - and getting to 40 - now looks likely.Norwich (35) pretty much held their ground. Four points from the home games should be achieved. Just one away point would be a real boon. That or more than four points at home and they get to 40.Which leads on nicely to Stoke (34! I may have underestimated the trouble they are in. A home defeat to Villa is very bad news, but they still only need one win and three draws. The home game against Norwich starts to look potentially doubly significant.Sunderland''s position on 31 didn''t really change. Losing to Chelsea (and Newcastle next week) was probably factored in. Their fate will be decided by their last five games, starting with Everton at home. They still look the least likely to reach 40. Even two wins and two draws sees them fall short. But if they manage that it will probably be on the backs of good results against Stoke and Villa.Could fewer than 40 be safe? Yes. But best not to count on that.

[/quote]The Villa Stoke result was the only unexpected result this weekend but there will be others as fortunes ebb and flow.I can''t disagree with any of your analysis Purple. 40 points will do it but you have to start manipulating results for them all to get close to that. With teams playing one another it all depends who comes out on top in those specific games. Avoiding defeat against Villa and Stoke may turn out to be key for us.Villa v Sunderland and Sunderland v Stoke could be ones to watch though the last day match between Wigan and Villa is still shaping up to be the ultimate test.If I had to put money on it at this stage then I still feel Wigan will be the third club to go down.

[PurpleCanary 5,553]

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]

So, 40 points the safety mark again eh! Who''d have thought it.[;)]OK, it might be 38 or 39 will be safe, but with very little to spare. So taking 40 points and with winnable games in red (and some games are in red for both  teams, because that is football!):Reading will not get beyond the mid-30s. Nor will QPR, unless they win five out of the last eight. Southampton (34 points), with a nice last seven, will get past 40. That leaves:Newcastle: 33 points. Fulham, Sunderland, Liverpool and Arsenal at home; WBA, West Ham and QPR away. Two very winnable home games and not a single difficult away game. Unless Europa League tiredness is a factor they will get at least two wins and some draws.Stoke: 34 points. Villa, Man Utd, Norwich and Spurs at home; QPR, Sunderland and Southampton away. In awful form and not scoring (does that sound familiar?) but four winnable games there, and they draw a lot. At least one win and three draws should be not be beyond them. Pulis''s experience a bonus.Norwich: 34 points. Swansea, Reading, Villa and WBA at home; Arsenal, Stoke and Man City away. Similar to Stoke. Lousy form and no goals. Three winnable homes but on current form that should - dispassionately - translate into one win only and a couple of draws. And one point from nine away at best. Which makes 39 or 40 points.Wigan: 30 points. Spurs, Swansea and Villa at home; QPR, Man City, West Ham, WBA and Arsenal away. Probably the hardest club to call. They have done this before (such as last season) and seem to have luck going for them. They have just won the two they had to, and still have two very winnable home games left, but their next three are away, and they don''t have one obviously easy away game left. One away win and they can get to 40; no away wins and they won''t.Sunderland: 31 points. Everton, Stoke and Southampton at home; Chelsea, Newcastle, Villa and Spurs away. There might be a new-manager bump (unless it''s Terry Connor) but there is only one game there on current form they might win. They could easily lose all four away. At best they could get one win and three draws, taking them to 37. Only if they win two will they have a chance of getting to 40.Aston Villa: 30 points. Fulham, Sunderland and Chelsea at home; Stoke, Man Utd, Norwich and Wigan away. An optimistic view would be four winnable games, but they now need to win three. Two wins and two draws looks likelier, taking them to 38. Looming large is the the last game of their season, at Wigan. Both cannot win.In short if Norwich win only one more game but get some draws they should stay up. Two wins would make it certain. Whether these calculations should have been necessary is another matter.

[/quote]

 

A week on, some probabilities have become near-certainties. Southampton and Newcastle will get beyond 40 points and Reading and QPR will go down.That leaves one fallguy from the Frantic Five. Taking 40 as safe, Wigan''s position (now on 31 points) didn''t really change. A point was useful but they still look to need to win one away and two at home. Only two wins all told and - say - two draws, and they finish on 39.Villa (33) sharply improved their position, and even though they seem to blow hot and cold two wins out of their six remaining - and getting to 40 - now looks likely.Norwich (35) pretty much held their ground. Four points from the home games should be achieved. Just one away point would be a real boon. That or more than four points at home and they get to 40.Which leads on nicely to Stoke (34! I may have underestimated the trouble they are in. A home defeat to Villa is very bad news, but they still only need one win and three draws. The home game against Norwich starts to look potentially doubly significant.Sunderland''s position on 31 didn''t really change. Losing to Chelsea (and Newcastle next week) was probably factored in. Their fate will be decided by their last five games, starting with Everton at home. They still look the least likely to reach 40. Even two wins and two draws sees them fall short. But if they manage that it will probably be on the backs of good results against Stoke and Villa.Could fewer than 40 be safe? Yes. But best not to count on that.

[/quote]The Villa Stoke result was the only unexpected result this weekend but there will be others as fortunes ebb and flow.I can''t disagree with any of your analysis Purple. 40 points will do it but you have to start manipulating results for them all to get close to that. With teams playing one another it all depends who comes out on top in those specific games. Avoiding defeat against Villa and Stoke may turn out to be key for us.Villa v Sunderland and Sunderland v Stoke could be ones to watch though the last day match between Wigan and Villa is still shaping up to be the ultimate test.If I had to put money on it at this stage then I still feel Wigan will be the third club to go down.[/quote]I don''t think we are that far apart in the way we analyse the situation, ricardo. We have both seen (suffered!) enough seasons to know that with teams playing each other (especially those games you mentioned) whoever ends up in 18th often has fewer points than seemed likely with half a dozen or so games to go. That said, I think 18th this season will gain more points than did Bolton - with 36 - last year. Hence my benchmark of 40 as being safe, with probably a point or two to spare.Potentially the decisive weekend is that of April 27/28/29. Wigan are at home to Spurs (with Bale or not?) while the other four of the Frantic Five play each other. We are at Stoke and Villa at Sunderland! After that the maths should get easier...

[BOO 0]

Wigan were not good yesterday but still managed to secure a last minute point, Sunderland looked a lot better than they have been and I think are definitely going to start picking up points, they looked considerably better than us going forward and were undone by a bit of bad lack at the back against the Champions of Europe. That leaves stoke who are the other team we are competing with for the third spot IMO, they didn''t look good but Pullis has plenty of options to change things, which we do not.

I saw a short period in the Swansea game where we picked up the pace, looked a bit better than the dross we have witnessed recently, only for us to then concede.

I still can''t see us reach 40 and can see the other 3 teams going on.a run.

If Hughton hadn''t screwed up his team selections and use of subs we may have some options to change things, but the reality is he has made it even harder by sidelining so many players.

[dpit 1]

I can''t see Sunderland getting anything out of their next two games away to The Toon and home to Everton. I stick by my prediction made a month ago that QPR, Reading and Sunderland will drop, with us in 17th. I''ll be happy with that (call me a cap doffing, knee groveller if you will) and look forward to rebuilding in the summer.

Vanwink, I suggest you follow the lead of your near namesake and go to sleep for a long period, waking up in time for the kick off next season when your other near namesake will lead our push for Europa League qualification.

[BOO 0]

Why do you not see Sunderland getting anything out of the Newcastle game?

[Joanna Grey 0]

Vanwink - How can you tell all that from MOTD? And if Pulis is going to turn it around with his "options" why has he not used them already?