ncfc0405 0 Posted February 9, 2005 After reading a post on another topic I thought I''d do some sums and try to predict our chance of staying up based on the difficulty of our run-in versus that of Southampton, WBA and Palace.I took all four run-ins and added up the current points total of all the teams in each run-in. I figured the higher the total, the tougher the run-in.Then I added up the points difference between each of the four teams and their run-in teams. So this takes account of the current performance of each of the bottom four teams.Then to round it off I put in an Away disadvantage (say 25%) so away fixtures each score an extra 25% in the run-in.So the bottom line is that (in theory) the team with the lowest point score has the best shot of staying up. The result (and the sums) are below. Looking good so far! PtsPts DiffAW-Pts DiffNorwich440200217.5Palace468204236.25Soton436208223.75WBA472268309.25 H/ANorwichPtsPts DiffAW-Pts DiffH/APalacePtsPts DiffAW-Pts Diff1Blackburn2556.251Arsenal5432400Man City3313130Birmingham29770Chelsea6545 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites sheded 0 Posted February 10, 2005 An interesting table ncfc ....... and hope we get into that position !! ....... think you`ll find out though , that there are far too many variables involved here too make it anything other than guesswork ! .... e,g its not impossible for us to beat one or two of the " top " teams , and then get beaten by a relegation threatened club , as WBA nearly did ! .... in fact , as the season progresses , it will become ever harder to beat the teams in the relegation zone , because , naturally they`ll be as desperate as us to scramble clear ..... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Being Jan Kristiansen... 0 Posted February 10, 2005 You wot??????????? But at least NCFC will stay up using your methodoligy, which is good enouth for me. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites ncfc0405 0 Posted February 10, 2005 You''re right of course. Plus there''s the "nothing to play for" effect of mid-table teams towards the end of the season. Wonder how to factor this in... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Stella Canary 0 Posted February 10, 2005 MMMmmmm - or perhaps you should just enjoy the time we''re having the prem right now, smile have a drink, dance and be merry for tomorrow we might be a Championship side.I''ve always wondered where these people come from that do "those" surveys - always in the news with complete and utter useless information. Now I know!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Ayrton Twigge 0 Posted February 10, 2005 This is another ineteresting perspective on things.If it were that predictable, then it''d be possible to win the pools every week.BUT the real message shining through from this and other views on the bottom 4 is that we''ve got a very realistic chance of staying up. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Cantley 0 Posted February 10, 2005 I did much the same calculation the other day and came to pretty much the same conclusion. To people who sniffily say that there are too many variables, I say that they''ll more than likely even themselves out. Of course it''s just a piece of fun, but I''d much rather have the ''easiest'' run-in than the ''hardest''! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Robbo007 0 Posted February 10, 2005 I think you should get out more mate to be honest! I did a university study on team - form last year, and your calculations seem pretty accurate. If you want to make it more accurate, create two variables for number of points - ie, home form and away form, and remove the 25% away-team factor. The current system would have say, Southampton v Newcastle as a likely away win (due to Newcastle''s much higher league position), however, Southampton have scored 17 points at home, compared to Newcastle''s 12 points away.I have a computer program that calculates the exact probabilities of each match outcome (as given by bookmakers), PM me if anyone wants it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites sheded 0 Posted February 11, 2005 [quote]I think you should get out more mate to be honest! I did a university study on team - form last year, and your calculations seem pretty accurate. If you want to make it more accurate, create two varia...[/quote]I`ll have a look at that Robbo007 ! ...... for christs sake don`t tell Littlewoods though Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Create an account or sign in to comment You need to be a member in order to leave a comment Create an account Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy! Register a new account Sign in Already have an account? Sign in here. Sign In Now Sign in to follow this Followers 0 Go To Topic Listing All Activity Home Have Your Say Main Discussion - Norwich City Relegationometer × Existing user? Sign In Sign Up The Pinkun Back The Pinkun Read all the latest news on the Pinkun.com Browse Back Browse Forums Online Users Leaderboard Activity Back Activity All Activity Search × Create New...
sheded 0 Posted February 10, 2005 An interesting table ncfc ....... and hope we get into that position !! ....... think you`ll find out though , that there are far too many variables involved here too make it anything other than guesswork ! .... e,g its not impossible for us to beat one or two of the " top " teams , and then get beaten by a relegation threatened club , as WBA nearly did ! .... in fact , as the season progresses , it will become ever harder to beat the teams in the relegation zone , because , naturally they`ll be as desperate as us to scramble clear ..... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Being Jan Kristiansen... 0 Posted February 10, 2005 You wot??????????? But at least NCFC will stay up using your methodoligy, which is good enouth for me. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ncfc0405 0 Posted February 10, 2005 You''re right of course. Plus there''s the "nothing to play for" effect of mid-table teams towards the end of the season. Wonder how to factor this in... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Stella Canary 0 Posted February 10, 2005 MMMmmmm - or perhaps you should just enjoy the time we''re having the prem right now, smile have a drink, dance and be merry for tomorrow we might be a Championship side.I''ve always wondered where these people come from that do "those" surveys - always in the news with complete and utter useless information. Now I know!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ayrton Twigge 0 Posted February 10, 2005 This is another ineteresting perspective on things.If it were that predictable, then it''d be possible to win the pools every week.BUT the real message shining through from this and other views on the bottom 4 is that we''ve got a very realistic chance of staying up. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cantley 0 Posted February 10, 2005 I did much the same calculation the other day and came to pretty much the same conclusion. To people who sniffily say that there are too many variables, I say that they''ll more than likely even themselves out. Of course it''s just a piece of fun, but I''d much rather have the ''easiest'' run-in than the ''hardest''! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Robbo007 0 Posted February 10, 2005 I think you should get out more mate to be honest! I did a university study on team - form last year, and your calculations seem pretty accurate. If you want to make it more accurate, create two variables for number of points - ie, home form and away form, and remove the 25% away-team factor. The current system would have say, Southampton v Newcastle as a likely away win (due to Newcastle''s much higher league position), however, Southampton have scored 17 points at home, compared to Newcastle''s 12 points away.I have a computer program that calculates the exact probabilities of each match outcome (as given by bookmakers), PM me if anyone wants it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sheded 0 Posted February 11, 2005 [quote]I think you should get out more mate to be honest! I did a university study on team - form last year, and your calculations seem pretty accurate. If you want to make it more accurate, create two varia...[/quote]I`ll have a look at that Robbo007 ! ...... for christs sake don`t tell Littlewoods though Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
