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ncfc0405

Relegationometer

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After reading a post on another topic I thought I''d do some sums and try to predict our chance of staying up based on the difficulty of our run-in versus that of Southampton, WBA and Palace.

I took all four run-ins and added up the current points total of all the teams in each run-in. I figured the higher the total, the tougher the run-in.

Then I added up the points difference between each of the four teams and their run-in teams. So this takes account of the current performance of each of the bottom four teams.

Then to round it off I put in an Away disadvantage (say 25%) so away fixtures each score an extra 25% in the run-in.

So the bottom line is that (in theory) the team with the lowest point score has the best shot of staying up. The result (and the sums) are below. Looking good so far!

 


PtsPts DiffAW-Pts Diff
Norwich440200217.5
Palace468204236.25
Soton436208223.75
WBA472268309.25

 

H/ANorwichPtsPts DiffAW-Pts DiffH/APalacePtsPts DiffAW-Pts Diff
1Blackburn2556.251Arsenal543240
0Man City3313130Birmingham2977
0Chelsea6545

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An interesting table ncfc .......  and hope we get into that position  !!   .......  think you`ll find out though , that there are far too many variables  involved   here too make it anything  other than  guesswork  ! ....  e,g  its not impossible for us to beat one or two  of  the " top " teams   , and then get beaten by a  relegation threatened  club  , as WBA nearly did !   .... in fact , as  the season progresses , it will become  ever harder to beat  the teams  in the relegation zone  , because , naturally they`ll be as desperate  as us to scramble  clear .....

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You''re right of course. Plus there''s the "nothing to play for" effect of mid-table teams towards the end of the season. Wonder how to factor this in...

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MMMmmmm - or perhaps you should just enjoy the time we''re having the prem right now, smile have a drink, dance and be merry for tomorrow we might be a Championship side.

I''ve always wondered where these people come from that do "those" surveys - always in the news with complete and utter useless information.  Now I know!!

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This is another ineteresting perspective on things.

If it were that predictable, then it''d be possible to win the pools every week.

BUT the real message shining through from this and other views on the bottom 4 is that we''ve got a very realistic chance of staying up.

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I did much the same calculation the other day and came to pretty much the same conclusion. To people who sniffily say that there are too many variables, I say that they''ll more than likely even themselves out. Of course it''s just a piece of fun, but I''d much rather have the ''easiest'' run-in than the ''hardest''!

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I think you should get out more mate to be honest! I did a university study on team - form last year, and your calculations seem pretty accurate. If you want to make it more accurate, create two variables for number of points - ie, home form and away form, and remove the 25% away-team factor.

The current system would have say, Southampton v Newcastle as a likely away win (due to Newcastle''s much higher league position), however, Southampton have scored 17 points at home, compared to Newcastle''s 12 points away.

I have a computer program that calculates the exact probabilities of each match outcome (as given by bookmakers), PM me if anyone wants it.

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[quote]I think you should get out more mate to be honest! I did a university study on team - form last year, and your calculations seem pretty accurate. If you want to make it more accurate, create two varia...[/quote]

I`ll have a look at that Robbo007  ! ...... for christs sake don`t tell  Littlewoods though 

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