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Jersey Canary

Points needed for survival?

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On average I think it is 35 points needed to survive so I don''t know about you but I think the Newcastle game is a massive 3 points. Win and we have 28 points, lose and Newcastle are 2 points behind and we''re looking over our shoulder.

Also, if we can get to 35 points sooner rather than later we can have a good crack at the FA Cup.

What do you think?

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QPR stayed up last season on 37 although 40 is often quoted as the number needed,i think only 1 side in the last decade has gone down with more than 40. There are alot more good successful sides this seasonwhich should bring that points average down. I think 37 shouldbe ok and 35 probably just not enough. On paper it sounds easy but reality may be different saturday will go a long way to see how we go

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I think you might be about 3 points light of what will be needed. QPR, Reading and Southampton have all picked up points and will contiue to do so.

 

The Newcastle game is important and looking at our last 6 home games, this is where we might pick up the 13 points needed IMO.

 

38 points will be enough I believe.

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With 40 points you can be 99% sure of survival although this year it could be as low as 36 points.4 wins and 3 draws from 17 games should be more than enough.

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Last year I felt by this stage it was very clear that Blackburn, Bolton, Wolves, Wigan and QPR would produce the 3 relegated sides, which was a very good feeling.

 

This time it is hard to see Reading getting out of it and probably too late for QPR (I certainly hope so) although I''d say QPR have a better chance than Reading.  My worry is that otherwise looking at the bottom, I think Southampton could do well enough to save themselves and Wigan have so much experience at escaping the drop, you wouldn''t want to be in competition with them on the final day.  But the other teams below us will all feel they''re under-performing by being in the bottom half of the table.  So Saturday is definitely not a must-win game, but 3 points would be a huge step towards safety.

 

With the top clubs all being fallible this year and lots of clubs with variable form (e.g. West Brom, West Ham, us to be honest) I can see this as a year when 40 points will be necessary.

 

The big thing for me though is that we don''t lose on Saturday and hopefully come back with at least a point from Anfield too - restarting an unbeaten run would make me a lot more comfortable about our safety.

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Generally speaking more of our points will be picked up at home. We have played all the so called big clubs at home bar spurs. Them out of the way we play Newcastle, Fulham, Everton, saints, Swansea, reading, villa and westbrom . Ok some of them will be desperate for the points aswell and no game is a given. however we will be at home and I would be shocked if we don''t get the points required out of them. The away games look tough so its down to us to get behind the team and drive them on at home especially.

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[quote user="It''s Character Forming" Last year I felt by this stage it was very clear that Blackburn, Bolton, Wolves, Wigan and QPR would produce the 3 relegated sides, which was a very good feeling.

 

This time it is hard to see Reading getting out of it and probably too late for QPR (I certainly hope so) although I''d say QPR have a better chance than Reading.  My worry is that otherwise looking at the bottom, I think Southampton could do well enough to save themselves and Wigan have so much experience at escaping the drop, you wouldn''t want to be in competition with them on the final day.  But the other teams below us will all feel they''re under-performing by being in the bottom half of the table.  So Saturday is definitely not a must-win game, but 3 points would be a huge step towards safety.

 

With the top clubs all being fallible this year and lots of clubs with variable form (e.g. West Brom, West Ham, us to be honest) I can see this as a year when 40 points will be necessary.

 

The big thing for me though is that we don''t lose on Saturday and hopefully come back with at least a point from Anfield too - restarting an unbeaten run would make me a lot more comfortable about our safety. quote]

I don''t see how you can call West Brom''s form variable. They''re sitting in 7th spot with 33 points with Liverpool, Stoke and Swansea below them. Pretty consistant if you ask me.

40 points should be good enough this year but we must get all three on Saturday to stop the rot. As someone else has mentioned, going to Anfield on the back of 5 defeats would not be good, especially with the little cheat banging them in regularly.

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