Making Plans 936 Posted December 19, 2012 All you need to look at is goals againstNorwich - 25 (14 of which came in 3 games early in the season)Southampton - 32Wigan - 32 QPR - 30Reading - 36If these 4 Clubs continue to let in goals at the rate of 1.8 to 2.1 per game then they won''t be winning or drawing many games as they are currently unable to score more than they let in.Furthermore I haven''t seen anything recently to suggest things will, or can, change at either end.Therefore these are the 4 that will be fighting relegation, not us. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Beefy is a legend 224 Posted December 19, 2012 By no means can we guarantee survival given that we have only 25 points, however....As one or two have already said, we do have a squad with some real depth to it. We have 4 or 5 key players in Bassong, Holt, Garrido, Tettey and Wessi whom we cannot easily replace, but we have good depth in the other positions and so long as we don''t suddenly lose 3 or 4 of the above key men I don''t see us going on a real bad run. I''ve seen too many games this season to really worry about us losing say 5 games in a row or not winning for 7 or 8, because we have the quality to always keep picking up the odd win and draw here or there.In fact, if we keep those key players fit then I can only see us overhauling last season''s points total and ending up with a total in the 50''s. I said after the first few games that, although results hadn''t been good I had no doubt that the squad was stronger than last season, and with the management doing a fine job I see no reason why we won''t overhaul Lambert''s 47pts. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
a1canary 0 Posted December 19, 2012 [quote user="Beauseant"]I never cease to be amazed by the mindset of some people on here. Nobody is suggesting that the job is done, nor will it be for some time. However, this is one of, if not the, best squads we''ve had at Norwich in the 40 odd years I''ve been a fan, and there''s every reason to expect that it will be strengthened in the window.To believe that we will go down, or even be involved in a dog fight you must, logically, think that the team has played way beyond it''s capabilities in amassing 25 point from 17 games and will now go into sharp decline. In my view, we''ve got 25 points without hitting our full potential, and while there will inevitably be a bad spell at some point I think that there is even better to come from the squad that we have, let alone any new arrivals.Also, to suggest that Holt is the single key to our survival is ridiculous, and insulting to the likes of Bassong, Wes , Snoddy etc. Obviously, like everyone else we want to keep key players fit, but if you think that we are a just one man side you''re kidding yourselves.[/quote]Reference to the 94/5 nightmare is not to say it''s the same situation and the same outcome. It''s just that it''s there, in our history, that is all. And because it''s there it is proof that it can happen. But indeed the situations of the respective teams - today''s and the 94/5 team - is completely different. As Purple points out, that was a team, on and off the pitch, in terminal decline. Today we are a team on the up. A strong team with great spirit that believes in itself. 94/5 was a fearful team, shorne of much of its talent and hanging on for dear life. In this respect it''s worth looking at our competitors. Wigan get wrongly written off again and again but they look to be running out of fight again and didn''t show any of the team cohesion and spirit that is driving us on. Sunderland ditto, Reading are surely gone, QPR will improve but it is probably too late. Southampton do have what we have plus they have some decent quality and for that reason i think they''ll be fine. Newcastle look in trouble to me. January will be critical for them. I think they need to bite the bullet and let Ba go if he wants to go, re-invest in some good young talent and build around Cisse like Bentiez has with Torres. But will they have the nerve? They have to do something like that to shake them out of their slumber, otherwise they''re in big touble. In my dreams horrible West Ham get dragged in to it and given their fans'' inbuilt dislike of Allardyce is never too far from the surface i think they could blow up quite easily. Unfortunately though the team looks to have enough to stay out of trouble. Of the others down there, i can''t see Fulham or Villa being troubled so for me i can only see Reading, QPR, Sunderland, Newcastle as the candidates. I think this is a harder league to stay in than last years by some distance. Wovles, Blackburn and Bolton were far poorer sides than the current bottom three, and QPR last year are probaly worse than QPR now with ''arry at the ''elm. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kingsway 94 Posted December 19, 2012 No! I well remember 94/95 when we were 7th at Xmas! I also remember the 81/82 promtion campaign when we came from nowhere to grab the 3rd promotion place! In reality it will take a catastrophic collapse to get relegated now but its more than possible! I''ll take 17th now but I think we''re capable of doing better than that! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Highland Canary 76 Posted December 19, 2012 There are some valid comments on the thread regarding the relative position we are from a cyclical perspective with both the football club and team are undoubtedly in a better state now than in 1995. Those were dark days indeed.I agree that it seems unlikely that we''ll get drawn into it but who knows? Let''s hope that we take the opportunity to strengthen in January. Each additional year we stay up provides the opportunity to incrementally improve the team. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zak Van Burger 0 Posted December 19, 2012 [quote user="kingsway"]No! I well remember 94/95 when we were 7th at Xmas! I also remember the 81/82 promtion campaign when we came from nowhere to grab the 3rd promotion place! [/quote]Don''t forget the 92-93 season where we finished third with a minus goal difference. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nutty nigel 7,527 Posted December 19, 2012 Is 94/95 this season''s Blackpool[:^)] Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
York Canary 28 Posted December 20, 2012 Just 3 wins and 3 draws from 21 games (15 losses) and we have last year''s survival amount of 37pts Just 4 wins and 3 draws (14 losses) and we have the ''magic'' survival target of 40pts Or 6 more wins and 4 draws (11 losses) and we''re looking at last season''s total of 47pts Currently from 17 matches..W D L6 7 4 Next 21 matches..W D L or W D L6 4 11 5 7 11 keep our form and who knows where it could take us.. However, we all know things can change very quickly and winning/unbeaten runs can soon become winless/losing streaks.. I have faith in CH and he seems calm in all scenarios so I''m really hoping that we keep this going and add a player or 2 that fits our work ethic and keeps us going.. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
York Canary 28 Posted December 20, 2012 [quote user="York Canary"]Just 3 wins and 3 draws from 21 games (15 losses) and we have last year''s survival amount of 37pts Just 4 wins and 3 draws (14 losses) and we have the ''magic'' survival target of 40pts Or 6 more wins and 4 draws (11 losses) and we''re looking at last season''s total of 47pts Currently from 17 matches..W D L6 7 4 Next 21 matches..W D L or W D L6 4 11 5 7 11 keep our form and who knows where it could take us.. However, we all know things can change very quickly and winning/unbeaten runs can soon become winless/losing streaks.. I have faith in CH and he seems calm in all scenarios so I''m really hoping that we keep this going and add a player or 2 that fits our work ethic and keeps us going.. [/quote]Ignore that...too late for this..should read..W D L5 7 9 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Shack Attack 0 Posted December 20, 2012 We had this last year (as Nutty points out with 94/95 being substituted for Blackpool) an it made no sense then either. We we never in a relegation battle last year and there is no reason to suspect that we will be this year. Bring in a couple more players in January and we should be looking to hold our position in the top ten and the possibility of qualifying for Europe (with any luck Chelsea will win the Milk Cup to free up an extra space from league position) rather than worrying what the likes of Reading and QPR are up to. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Salopian 1 Posted December 20, 2012 We ought to be safe now - the equivalent of five wins will do it, but.... Reading look doomed, Southampton should have enough to survive, Wigan look the next most likely to drop, but who will fill the third place? The last is anyone''s guess. QPR have enough talent, and with ''arry I think that they will survive. It may come down to Lady Luck - number or seriousness of injuries. If Bsssong or Tettey had a long time out, we could crumble, and the same is true of several smaller clubs. So I''ll pick the two - Reading and Wigan, and amit that it could be anyone almost for the third place, even us. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ZLF 273 Posted December 20, 2012 it is a cliche but its one milestone at a time; quickly hit 30 points, then 40, then relax and get to 50+.We have the squad this season to exceed 50 points, we have the history to get relegated.It would take a collapse of near biblical proportions for us to get relegated and I cant see a little bit of history repeating, far more likely that we will be celebrating exceeding the 40 barrier by mid/end Feb. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,160 Posted December 20, 2012 I think a neutral who has seen a fair selection of our games over the season would discount us from the relegation mix. As much as anything, we are now very tough to beat, and as long as you keep pickup up points from scrappy performances (e.g. Reading away) you''ll be ok from the sort of position we are now in. Looking at the table anyone from Fulham down could be sucked into relegation. Reading have now lost 6 in a row after their solitary win and look like they''ll be the first that are down. Looking at the 7 teams above them, you can make a case for any of them surviving but at least 2 of them will not improve enough and I think the other relegated teams will be the worst 2 from this pack over the rest of the season. This doesn''t make me relax as a City fan because our history teaches you to take nothing for granted. But logically, I am convinced we will survive this season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nutty nigel 7,527 Posted December 20, 2012 Just imagine if over the last year we''d sold Holt, Hoolahan and Pilkington. Then if Ruddy had a long term injury and we hadn''t signed Bunn last summer. Imagine if, after Lambert walked out, we''d not gone for a best in class manager and just promoted an untried manager from within. Then sacked him and appointed an ex-player, again untried. I think in those circumstances it may well be fair to compare this season with 94/95... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,160 Posted December 20, 2012 [quote user="nutty nigel"]Just imagine if over the last year we''d sold Holt, Hoolahan and Pilkington. Then if Ruddy had a long term injury and we hadn''t signed Bunn last summer. Imagine if, after Lambert walked out, we''d not gone for a best in class manager and just promoted an untried manager from within. Then sacked him and appointed an ex-player, again untried. I think in those circumstances it may well be fair to compare this season with 94/95...[/quote]Don''t. I still wake up in a cold sweat with flashbacks sometimes... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sussexyellow 55 Posted December 20, 2012 I think the nervousness comes from the fact that there are no obviously weak sides in the division, save for possibly Reading and even that could be a harsh assessment. So any could go on a very good run like QPR and Wigan last season. The good news is that there are a number of clubs between us and the bottom 3 and there will be lots of games where both can''t have three points. I think we are in a position where safety is ours to lose. But I think Hoots and the club will follow the same line as last season, we are not safe until mathematically we can not go down. That''s the professional approach and its hard to argue against it. COYY Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frodo 0 Posted December 20, 2012 We should be cautious indeed. It would only take a little slump for us to lose confidence and then DOWN we go! We musn''t aim for europe it is an distraction. I am hoping for at the highest 15th. Its a nice and comfy spott but not too big for our boots. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yelloow Since 72 54 Posted December 20, 2012 I''d be more concerned if CH and the players did start assuming they are safe. There''s a long way to go but the last 10 performances have been solid and consistent. It won''t last forever, but as long as the performances remain good the results should as well, on the whole. I actually think the performances are still improving in recent weeks, but the next 3 matches will be a test of that. I''m confident now, but won''t be convinced until City are past 40 points. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gingerpele 0 Posted December 20, 2012 In answer to the original question, yes, yes I am convinced.Always have been, was last season from the day we were promoted, when Hughton was appointed this season, even after we lost to Fulham, and after we lost badly to Liverpool and Chelsea.But then I''m overly optimistic ;) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Row D Seat 7 0 Posted December 20, 2012 The many mentions of 94/95 has made me dig out my old NCFC videos and re-watch over Christmas for the first time in over ten years to see how exactly our season fell apart back then. Like I said in the original post, I''m not totally convinced - yet!If our form continues (not the unbeaten run but at least picking up points more often than not) then I would be sure of survival.Last season I never even considered that we would go down. Didn''t enter my head. Have to say that was because Lambert was boss and I knew he wouldn''t let it happen. This season, because we are still getting to know Hughton to a certain extent, I''m still trying to work him out game by game, how he reacts to different situations and when we are defeated next in a league game, his reaction and the subsequent results will be very interesting.Like another poster said, I can''t see the likes of WBA, Southampton, Reading and Fulham coming here and getting three points. And that''s what will need to happen for us to go down, losing games like the ones just mentioned.From a neutral''s point of view, we look safe. Knowing what has happened to NCFC in the past, we are far from safe! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
