Similarities to 94/95 season

[courtyboy02 0]

On 31st December 1994 having beaten Newcastle United 2-1 at Carrow Road we were 7th in the league with 33 points. We all know what happened at the end of the season.I''m not saying it will happen this season but we have lost our number 1 goalkeeper who was in superb form. A lot of our fans arrogantly seem to think we''re safe already.That season we also threw away a 2 goal lead at Upton Park with Tony Cottee scoring 2 late goals. Let''s hope history doesn''t repeat itself tomorrow.All I''m saying is let''s not assume we''re safe until we actually are.

[Gingerpele 0]

No one thinks we are safe already that''s impossible, we will be safe, what on earth has 94/95 got to do with this season?

Nothing, that''s what....

[Gordon Bennett 780]

Somebody has been reading Steve Gedge in the EDP.

Anyone with any sense will know that we are most certainly not safe.....it ought to only require five more wins but until we are mathematically safe the possibility will always be there, however small.

[Baracouda 47]

You also forget to mention in the 94/95 season, that 4 sides were relegated and we played an extra 4 games, whilst agreeing with your overall point.

Whilst I think we will be safe. The last three games have shown how easy it is to slip into a losing run. Not one bad result (loss to WBA (6th?, away), Chelsea and Man City).

With a couple of bad results and bad timed fixtures (i.e start of the season), can quite quickly get a worrying run going. But, we have played most of the big boys at home, and chelsea twice already. So hopefully, that wont materalise... Nice win against the hammers would be nice.

You would imagine with our points total and the the total of QPR / Reading, worse come to the worse, we would fall over the line and avoid relegation.

[TIL 1010 4,722]

The difference between now and then is that Chase is not chairman and unlike him we will not be selling our best players.

[Baracouda 47]

Very good Point Tilly.

Would also say any similarity between that season and this...

Fulham/Newcastle... both dropping like stones, Fulham sold maybe one too many in the summer and Newcastle might be about to sell one too many in January.

[MAJESTIC 0]

this message board as turned into a board full of middle aged men who don''t get none of their wives and geeky teenagers. in a bit

[pete_norw 0]

[quote user="courtyboy02"]On 31st December 1994 having beaten Newcastle United 2-1 at Carrow Road we were 7th in the league with 33 points. We all know what happened at the end of the season.

I''m not saying it will happen this season but we have lost our number 1 goalkeeper who was in superb form. A lot of our fans arrogantly seem to think we''re safe already.

That season we also threw away a 2 goal lead at Upton Park with Tony Cottee scoring 2 late goals. Let''s hope history doesn''t repeat itself tomorrow.

All I''m saying is let''s not assume we''re safe until we actually are.
[/quote]

So you think we will go down like we did then, Can I ask you what the hell you doing here if you only see religation, why noy get on the plastic van and sing for any of the top 6, your gloom is not needed here.

[......and Smith must score. 1,336]

[quote user="MAJESTIC"]this message board as turned into a board full of middle aged men who don''t get none of their wives and geeky teenagers. in a bit[/quote]Eh ? What''s that in English ?

[courtyboy02 0]

Sorry if mentioning this has upset/annoyed anyone, it was only a thought. I obviously hope and expect we''ll stay up, I''ve just read Steve Gedge''s column and he makes some very good points too. Being a City fan doesn''t mean you have to be blindly optimistic and expect us to win every game. Survival this season would be a great achievement, especially considering the start that was made.Funnily enough I went to my first City game in 1995 (aged 5) and have been going ever since so could hardly be accused of being a glory supporter considering what happened between 1995 and 2003. It''s a shame someone can''t post on this forum without being shouted down, a lot of posters on here are fine and just want to talk all things Norwich City but some spoil it for the rest.

[K Lo 221]

When did we last sell a player that we didn''t want to sell? Must have been ages ago. Dean Ashton? Clingan? Well, with hindsight, glad he went.

[courtyboy02 0]

Yeah Clingan I think. We offered Croft a new contract but he decided he was too good for League One...

[canarydan23 4,060]

You stay up on your home games. We have amassed 25 points in 2012, despite Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool all visiting.

In 2013, Reading, Southampton, Fulham, Villa and Newcastle visit, games that on recent form we will be favourites for. Win them, and we are safe even if we lose every other game this season.

Any points we get from our away games or home ties against Spurs, Everton and West Brom, of which there will be many, need only compensate for the inevitable slip up or two we will make in our "winnable" home ties.

It is not arrogance that makes me believe we will be safe, just sensible logic and a rational approach to the rest of the season.

[Crafty Canary 495]

The ''never say die'' attitude of our players would suggest that a calamitous collapse in the remaining 18 games is unlikely. I would rather be in our position than teams like Villa or Fulham at present let alone those in evn poorer positions than them.

[Woodford Canary 0]

I agree - and I think that the stats bear that out also.  On the evidence of previous years, it looks like the "safety" target may be more like 37 rather than 40 points also.

If you look at the midway point (roughly, given that teams will have played slightly different numbers of matches) and then compare to the final total needed for Premier League safety, you get the following for midway totals of teams in the relegation dogfight (in 18th place or just above):

season       midway pts total        safety pts

11/12              15-17                     37

10/11              19-20                     40

09/10              18-19                     31

08/09              18-20                     35

07/08              16-17                     36

06/07              18-19                     38

 

in other words, the safety total is very likely lower than 40, and given that the current season "midway total" for the battle to avoid 18th (wigan, villa, saints) is 17-18 then we could be looking at less than 37 even.  What are the chances of ALL of the bottom 5 teams doing better in the second half of the season AND none of the other teams below us performing below current levels?  Not very likely.

So, we''re never mathematically safe until we''re safe, but the likelihood is that we only need 12 points in the second half of the season.  I still predict that we''ll finish in a similar position (at least) to last year.

[nutty nigel 7,510]

Chase sold Fox, Sutton, Robins and Ekoku from the side that had got us to Europe. Each replacement was a marked downgrade. He replaced Mike Walker with an untried manager subsequently only good enough to be Gunny''s number two. When he departed he replaced him with another with no managerial experience. The team that played Villa on the last day was : -

 

Marshall, Bradshaw, Bowen, Newsome, Polston, Goss, Crook, Ullathorne, Ward, Sutch, Sheron.

 

If you can find similarities between Big Fat Bob''s devastation and Delia & MWJ''s policy of improving the squad in every transfer window and replacing Lambert with a "best in class" manager then you maybe have a point. Otherwise it''s just scaremo0ngering for whatever purpose is floating your boats.

 

We were relegated because BFB turned a silk purse into a sow''s ear. In other words we were sh it!

 

 

 

 

[Baldyboy 0]

Tilly you say we wont be selling any players , more to the point will we be Signing any as the last few games have highlighted just how weak our squad really is? If we want to make sure we stay up we need to improve the squad very quickly!

[nutty nigel 7,510]

I suggest on the evidence of the last 3 transfer windows we will be signing someone baldy. Unless there''s suddenly a change in policy that I wasn''t aware of. I''m also really confident we won''t be selling anyone of value over the manager''s head ala Big Fat Bob in the 90''s.

 

 

[TIL 1010 4,722]

[quote user="baldyboy"]Tilly you say we wont be selling any players , more to the point will we be Signing any as the last few games have highlighted just how weak our squad really is? If we want to make sure we stay up we need to improve the squad very quickly!
[/quote]

My word what a positive post from start to finish.The last time i looked we are still 12th in the table so what is running round your head to make you think we might break the habit of the last 3 years on not sign anyone in a transfer window ? This mini slump we are in begs the question as to who below us has taken advantage of 4 defeats in a row ? Just relax baldy as signings will be made and with 10 home games left we will not go down.

[city4eva 207]

[quote user="Woodford Canary"]

I agree - and I think that the stats bear that out also.  On the evidence of previous years, it looks like the "safety" target may be more like 37 rather than 40 points also.

If you look at the midway point (roughly, given that teams will have played slightly different numbers of matches) and then compare to the final total needed for Premier League safety, you get the following for midway totals of teams in the relegation dogfight (in 18th place or just above):

season       midway pts total        safety pts

11/12              15-17                     37

10/11              19-20                     40

09/10              18-19                     31

08/09              18-20                     35

07/08              16-17                     36

06/07              18-19                     38

 

in other words, the safety total is very likely lower than 40, and given that the current season "midway total" for the battle to avoid 18th (wigan, villa, saints) is 17-18 then we could be looking at less than 37 even.  What are the chances of ALL of the bottom 5 teams doing better in the second half of the season AND none of the other teams below us performing below current levels?  Not very likely.

So, we''re never mathematically safe until we''re safe, but the likelihood is that we only need 12 points in the second half of the season.  I still predict that we''ll finish in a similar position (at least) to last year.

[/quote]

 

Great to be positive...if you are not you get slated on here...but we are only 7 points above the drop, 3 teams have a game in hand (4 counting QPR who I think are doomed), If we keep going the way we are, its hard to stay positive and to post on here that "we are safe" is just plain stupid

[city4eva 207]

[quote user="TIL 1010"]

[quote user="baldyboy"]Tilly you say we wont be selling any players , more to the point will we be Signing any as the last few games have highlighted just how weak our squad really is? If we want to make sure we stay up we need to improve the squad very quickly!
[/quote]

My word what a positive post from start to finish.The last time i looked we are still 12th in the table so what is running round your head to make you think we might break the habit of the last 3 years on not sign anyone in a transfer window ? This mini slump we are in begs the question as to who below us has taken advantage of 4 defeats in a row ? Just relax baldy as signings will be made and with 10 home games left we will not go down.

[/quote]

we were 10 points above the drop before this slump and we are now 7 Southampton and Wigan have taken a small advantage

[TIL 1010 4,722]

[quote user="city4eva"][quote user="TIL 1010"]

[quote user="baldyboy"]Tilly you say we wont be selling any players , more to the point will we be Signing any as the last few games have highlighted just how weak our squad really is? If we want to make sure we stay up we need to improve the squad very quickly!
[/quote]

My word what a positive post from start to finish.The last time i looked we are still 12th in the table so what is running round your head to make you think we might break the habit of the last 3 years on not sign anyone in a transfer window ? This mini slump we are in begs the question as to who below us has taken advantage of 4 defeats in a row ? Just relax baldy as signings will be made and with 10 home games left we will not go down.

[/quote]

we were 10 points above the drop before this slump and we are now 7 Southampton and Wigan have taken a small advantage

[/quote]

So while we have dropped 12 points the chasing pack have managed to reel us in by 3 points .Wow !!!!!

[Baracouda 47]

at that rate, we can afford to have another 8 games :D

[Tangible Fixed Assets anyone? 0]

[quote user="nutty nigel"]

If you can find similarities between Big Fat Bob''s devastation and Delia & MWJ''s policy of improving the squad in every transfer window .....

[/quote]

This is an interesting interpretation of squad improvement. Our finishing positions each season in the Championship following the relegation from the Premiership in 2005 were:

05 - 06    9th.

06 - 07    16th.

07 - 08    17th.

08 - 09    22nd.

Unless you are reading the table while standing on your head the on pitch performance would not support the suggestion that the playing squad was improved in every transfer window. Of course I am assuming that by improvement you are referring to what actually happens on the pitch.

[Duncan Edwards 0]

Why have you omitted the years before 05 and after 09 Tangible?

[BlyBlyBabes 0]

[quote user="Duncan Edwards"]Why have you omitted the years before 05 and after 09 Tangible?[/quote]

 

Because those years are clearly not relevant to his factual critique of the accurateness of  the posters particular claim.

 

OTBC

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

[quote user="Tangible Fixed Assets anyone"][quote user="nutty nigel"]

If you can find similarities between Big Fat Bob''s devastation and Delia & MWJ''s policy of improving the squad in every transfer window .....

[/quote]

This is an interesting interpretation of squad improvement. Our finishing positions each season in the Championship following the relegation from the Premiership in 2005 were:

05 - 06    9th.

06 - 07    16th.

07 - 08    17th.

08 - 09    22nd.

Unless you are reading the table while standing on your head the on pitch performance would not support the suggestion that the playing squad was improved in every transfer window. Of course I am assuming that by improvement you are referring to what actually happens on the pitch.

[/quote]

 

What nutty, as I am sure he confirm, was comparing was the contrasting policies of Chase and Smith and Jones when they were in control of the club in the top flight. Myself I think such a comparison has to be tempered by factoring in the extra TV money that has increasingly become available, especially in this latest spell in the top flight. But, bearing that in mind, Tangible''s figures for life down in the second tier are not relevant.

[nutty nigel 7,510]

Tangie''s making his usual attempt at taking credit away from Smith & Jones by taking the thread completely off topic. It''s all about comparisons between this squad and the one in 94/95 as suggested by the thread title. The squad that was relegated in 94/95 had been consistently stripped of quality by Chase''s sales whilst the current squad has been improved at every opportunity by Smith & Jones. Tangie and all the 94/95 scaremongers may not like that but is is an undeniable fact.

 

 

[Tangible Fixed Assets anyone? 0]

It is is an undeniable fact that under Chase, Norwich City Football Club finished third, fourth and fifth in the top tier of English football. Furthermore we reached FA Cup semi finals and we never played in the third tier of English fotball.

 

 

[Crafty Canary 495]

What a pointless exercise to compare 94/95 with the current squad. It completely ignores the difference in money available to clubs then and now. The money from TV deals was in its infancy compared to now and it would be really surprising if any premiership team''s squad today was not better compared to nearly a decade ago.

As for Bob Chase - the club''s two best ever League finishes, two FA Cup semi-finals, our only season in Europe and the continued improvement of the ground. Yep, he sure was useless as chairman. Agreed it finished very badly but it wasn''t all bad news.