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Canary1902

Underestimated Little Old Norwich

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Looking at the Coral webite this morning at the relagation odds for the new season. No prizes for guess who is 6/4 favourite for the drop......

6/4   -   Norwich

6/5   -   Reading

13/10   -   Southampton

7/4   -   Wigan

11/5   -   Swansea

9/4   -   West Ham

4/1   -   QPR

4/1   -   West Brom

This frustrates me in one sense, as it was the same last year, and we outright proved everyone wrong. This year however the fact that Reading, Southampton, and even QPR and Swansea are ahead of us it quite frankly an insult.

But on the plus side, we''ve surpassed all expectations in the last 2 seasons (League One wasn''t a shocker really was it). And yet the media, bookies, pundits, and other fans seem to just overlook us every season.

Maybe this is one key to our recent success, and if thats the case, then i''m happy for them to assume we''re not a force to be reckoned with

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excellent news, couldn''t bettter (well it actually could)

 

get your bets in now while there''s money to be made

 

I have had three good years so far and fully expect this one to be another

 

 

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Unfortunately you cant make easy millions backing Norwich to go down as a "sweetener" to the painHowever Ive got us down as 12th again.  I think the 3 to go down will be from the following1) Southampton - depends on whether Lambert fires enough goals2) West Ham - despite talking the talk and the fact they''re media darlings they havent got an easy start and TBH dont seem to have strengthened.  Plus I hate them3) Wigan - always seem to get out of it.  One day they wont4) Swansea - Laudrup not tested in the Prem.  Could implode if they have a poor start5) West Brom - kept up by Hodgson.  Another potential Blackburn case6) Stoke - wobbled dangerously last year at the start and end.  Their anti-football will let them down eventually7) QPR - dont seem to have learned the lessons of last season8) Fulham - if they dont keep DempseyThink we''ll be mid-table, hard to see past current top 6 although I expect Liverpool to be stronger and the Geordies less so.  Possible place swap

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Canary1902,Although I echo the sentiment of your post, we are actually thrid favourites (1.5 to 1)for the drop after Reading (1.2 to 1) and Southampton (1.3 to 1). Bookies dont set prices, this is simply the weight of punters money. We have clearly been marked down in punters mnds because of the loss of Lambert. Whilst this is perhaps undertsandable, what amazes me is how Swansea are viewed as less risky given that their new manager is a bigger risk on paper than Hughton.The best value best for relegation are Stoke and Fulham who are available at 8/1 and 10/1 respectively.

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my tips ?

 

look how we played last season (and the seasons before)

 

and look how the club is now run and go from there

 

once that''s sorted, check as many sources as possible to get the best odds

 

 

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Ok so my post wasn''t odds perfect, but that doesn''t explain why everyone (and by everyone, I mean the people placing bets creating those odds) assumes that QPR, last season''s strugglers who scraped survival on the last day of the season, which wasn''t even in their own hands, are at 4/1

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[quote user="Barclay hero"]Unfortunately you cant make easy millions backing Norwich to go down as a "sweetener" to the pain

However Ive got us down as 12th again.  I think the 3 to go down will be from the following

1) Southampton - depends on whether Lambert fires enough goals
2) West Ham - despite talking the talk and the fact they''re media darlings they havent got an easy start and TBH dont seem to have strengthened.  Plus I hate them
3) Wigan - always seem to get out of it.  One day they wont
4) Swansea - Laudrup not tested in the Prem.  Could implode if they have a poor start
5) West Brom - kept up by Hodgson.  Another potential Blackburn case
6) Stoke - wobbled dangerously last year at the start and end.  Their anti-football will let them down eventually
7) QPR - dont seem to have learned the lessons of last season
8) Fulham - if they dont keep Dempsey

Think we''ll be mid-table, hard to see past current top 6 although I expect Liverpool to be stronger and the Geordies less so.  Possible place swap




[/quote]

 

I think West Brom at 4-1 is the interesting one, for the reason you give. But it also points up the fact that no fewer than eight teams this coming season will have either a new manager (as with WBA and us) or a manager new to the Premier League.

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I don''t mind at all if we get written off. Hoot can use it for extra motivation. we''ve already seen from some of Howson''s comments a sense of irritation that all of our past success has been put down to Lambert by the media. If Hoot is any good he can harness that and use it to our advantage. also means others may take us more lightly as well.

I actually think WBA are going to really struggle this season and Stoke will be down there as well.

 

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"but that doesn''t explain why everyone ............................"

 

Everyone ?

 

The odds merely reflect the money placed ie one punter betting £1000 will set the odds more than nine punters betting £100 each. At the moment these are early days and a few bets can make quite a bit of difference.

 

As to the punters supposedly getting it wrong (in your view) that should be a given. If they didn''t get it wrong then the bookies would be bankrupt. The odds have limited bearing on what will happen beyond the blindingly obvious - and should only be of interest to City fans looking to make money off the stupidity of others

 

 

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Jesus Christ.

I''m not saying the bookies, i''m not saying EVERYONE, i''m not saying Jesus Christ and the Bill Bloody Oddie

I''m refering to the odds, and thats it.

Why do I bother.

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We are one of the favourites for the drop because we have one of the weakest squads in the top flight , we have yet to make a summer signing of any note and the promoted sides are spending big money on decent signings . Add to that we have lost the Manager who brought all the success to the club and who most pundits thought was entirely responsible for us staying up last season . Underestimated , no , the odds are about right .

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[quote user="Ncfc"]We are one of the favourites for the drop because we have one of the weakest squads in the top flight , we have yet to make a summer signing of any note and the promoted sides are spending big money on decent signings . Add to that we have lost the Manager who brought all the success to the club and who most pundits thought was entirely responsible for us staying up last season . Underestimated , no , the odds are about right .[/quote]Why would you be bigging other teams up whilst putting your own team down?

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"i''m not saying EVERYONE"

 

nope what you said was

 

''but that doesn''t explain why everyone''

 

Which I suppose most would mistake as being the same. However the context that we would therefore assume was everyone being those who placed a relevent bet. So as said above, punters get it wrong that''s why bookies make a good living.

 

Therefore those betting on QPR are most likely those type of punters - and if they are then why not have a punt and make some money out of them being ''wrong'' ?

 

 

 

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