Reality check - what we should be aiming for next...

[a1canary 0]

I''ve enjoyed some of the positivity on here since the new manger has been appointed but some of it has got a bit carried away with talk of Europe and very bold assumptions about improving on our first season and about the importance of ''progressing''.

Anyone who thinks it''s a reasonable expectation to finish higher up than last season is getting far too carried away. Having managed to survive the first season, the importance of simply surviving the next - particularly without PL - becomes even greater.

We can start thinking about real progress on the pitch when, and only when, we reach the sunny uplands of debt freedom, the lush green fields sown of financial fair play, banked on all sides by 35,000 singing canaries...

But to reach this utopia, we have to keep our feet on the ground first. I''m already nervous to hear the board talking about European targets and thinking big transfer signings. Fine in principle, but for now the most important thing is keeping the wage bill down rather than thinking of doing a Bradford and signing a Benito Carbone after surviving a first season. Or a Finidi George!

I think we need to continue for at least another year with the "young and hungry lower league" transfer policy, one which i was interested to see in interview was McNally''s strategy, not Lambert''s. There are a number of transfer market areas where you can shop around it seems. There''s the stratospheric one where only chelsea and man city and real and barca can shop, then there''s a level below that where the man u and spurs and other big european clubs shop, then there''s the general top league market where most players reside and where we COULD look if we wanted. But this is where you find the most players who are overpaid relative to their talent and still demand 30k a week minimum. I still don''t think we should be shopping here yet. We could up it a little - for instance if we had reached this stage a year earlier or if Southampton hadn''t been promoted, we could have gone in for someone like Adam Lallana - a step up from a Bennett or a Pilkington at the time we signed them, but still able to sign up relatively cheaply, if for a larger initial fee.

And if maintaining this transfer policy means we finish lower than last year but still stay up, i''ll take that every day of the week if it gets us to those sunny uplands. Because believe me, if we can reach a debt free NCFC with a 35k stadium, and all our competitors prevented from pumping free debt into big transfers and wages, then we can start really dreaming! But until then, don''t put pressure on the club to run before it can really strut.

[Hog 0]

sorry but just to clarify where has the Board talked about big transfer signings? I think in reality shopping abroad may well be cheaper than the younger hungry talents that we have previously looked at. They have already stated that they have pretty much exhausted that area, mainly I think because more clubs are looking for exactly the same thing it pushes the price up.

[Yorkshire Canary 118]

With the disruption this club has had after the end of last season and the fact that this seasons premiership has few if any weak links in particular from the promoted clubs just staying up this season should be the target. This is realistic provided we spend wisely and hopefully keep Holt and our other best players. I am nervous about us going into the European market as i am not convinced as yet we know what we are doin there and we have had some real disasters in the past

[Mr Jenkins 0]

[quote user="Yorkshire Canary"]With the disruption this club has had after the end of last season and the fact that this seasons premiership has few if any weak links in particular from the promoted clubs just staying up this season should be the target. This is realistic provided we spend wisely and hopefully keep Holt and our other best players. I am nervous about us going into the European market as i am not convinced as yet we know what we are doin there and we have had some real disasters in the past[/quote]

I agree Mr Boycott, you need a really good scouting network to pick up decent European players and the risks of failure are high. It will be interesting to see what strategy Hughton adopts. Survival has to be the top priority every season and the next one is no different, I would like to see us take a few big scalps at home and get on a decent cup run.

[whoareyou? 0]

With all the upheaval since the end of the season, then realistically i think we should aim for the same as last season and a 12th place finish.After that just surviving will become incredibly boring and we need to aim higher than that.

[swindonyellow 0]

Why does European targets have to mean shopping in the top leagues? Surely there is some untapped talent on the continent in the lower leagues that we could be looking at. Even if we are looking at the tope leagues, we are not looking to raid to Madrid, or Barcelona. The lower league teams will have quality players that may be quality and affordable. Prime example would be Victor Moses.

[Yorkshire Canary 118]

Thats the worry for me do we know what we are doing, i hope so. Jonnson, Helveg, De ward and others have not beeb happy memories. Of course this could be a bit of a smoke screen we will have to see

[a1canary 0]

Like I say, fine in principle to look in Europe, and accept it doesn''t have to be expensive, but for the reasons most above have outlined, it''s far more risky. Previous strategy worked because we knew much better what we were getting.

Also don''t buy the "low hanging fruit" analogy. We may have to reach a bit higher, but I''d rather stay out of the transfer market of established premier league ''names'' who command big wages and are no better guarantee of success really than a Morison or a Holt. Not against Europe if we know what we''re getting.

[blahblahblah 2]

"We can start thinking about real progress on the pitch when, and only

when, we reach the sunny uplands of debt freedom, the lush green fields

sown of financial fair play, banked on all sides by 35,000 singing

canaries...

"An attendance of 35,000 will take (I''m guessing) 10 years to pay off - assuming we can get a bank to agree a loan in the current economic circumstances.  And that is the reality of our situation.  Probably the 18th richest club in the league, at least until 2020.  But look at the players we have recruited - we''ve picked up Pilkington, Bennett, Howson, who are talked very highly by fellow pros, sometimes in terms of future international players.  We also have international strikers in Morison and Jackson.  We have 3 players who have been extremely unlucky to miss out on England / Republic of Ireland selection for the Euros.  We had the 7th highest goals scored total in the division, and were a blip away from finishing level with an admittedly under-performing Liverpool.  If we can get the goals conceded tally down, sort out this nonsense with Holt / find a decent replacement, maybe get Morison clicking on all 4 cylinders for next season, keep hold of the best of our team, and improve the defence / spine with new signings, well - I will have a positive outlook for next season.  If all these things fall into place, I think we''re looking at about 10th next season - there''s nothing to fear below the top 6, and even they can be held or beaten on a good day for us / bad day for them.

[Cantiaci Canary 557]

We should be aiming for survival - nothing more.

One good season in the top flight doesn''t make you established. We are still very much underdogs and minus Lambert even more so now.

[Jacko 0]

Regardless of who was the manager this was always going to be a very difficult year. Reading, Southampton and West Ham are going to be pretty strong this year. I can''t see there being many duffers this year. I think just staying the Premier League will be an excellent achievement by Hughton and his team. It would also mean the club has once again made great strides forward. We will then have a bigger budget next year to move forward with once all the external debt has been cleared.

[Bethnal Yellow and Green 1,557]

''Young and hungry'' in the English leagues are more expensive than comparable players in leagues across Europe (in many, but not all cases). The fact that Jay R cost Southampton £7m should show everyone that this market is already over stretched. Even last year with players such as Pilkington and Bennett (Ryan and Elliott) costing over £2m each and all with no or very limited Championship experience shows that it was never ''cheap'' to bring in these players.

 

There is no real greater risk with bring in players from Europe, as long as the scouting is done correctly. Many of the mistakes of the past have been players brought in on reputation or on a few good performances on TV. Wasn''t it reported that Hamilton picked up European players by looking at videos of them sent by agents? Norwich have also had plenty of players brought in from the domestic leagues who have flopped badly - just the ones with fancy contiental names stick out more.

 

If Norwich contiune to ignore this market we will be left behind - Southampton have already shown they are willing to throw money around and getting into a straight fight with them for a few lower league targets will nearly always mean failure for Norwich. We need to start making the clever signings that Wigan, Newcastle and Blackburn have been carrying out successfully (until recently in Blackburn''s case of course).

[Sussexyellow 55]

Good posts Jacko & Bethnal. Totally agree.

 

COYY

[blahblahblah 2]

"Reading, Southampton and West Ham are going to be pretty strong this year. I can''t see there being many duffers this year."I don''t think anyone would have predicted this years duffers though, in August.  Wolves looked pretty sound, as did Owen Coyles Bolton.  Blackburn, well, Kean was always on a hiding to nothing with the owners.  Maybe Wigan will struggle next season without Martinez, Swansea without Rogers ?  But then Norwich could without Lambert - there are no guarantees.  There''s no doubt that 3 or 4 teams will struggle though, they always do.

[Scooby 0]

Oh come on people, why should we not aim for Europe?  If it''s achievable by Fulham and Bolton, why not us?  Onwards and upwards I say, Hurrah !!

[Jacko 0]

I will admit the team that really surprised me this year were Wolves. I thought they would be pretty solid and they started the season very well. I think they had 7 points from their opening 3 matches. I think Blackburn was accident waiting to happen with Steve Kean and the Venky''s in charge. You knew they would be in the mix for relegation. I also genuinely believed Bolton would be in the frame for relegation. Their form after the FA Cup semi final against Stoke was absolutely abysmal and also coincided with them losing Lee and Holden to long term injury. They were two key players who were never adaquately replaced in the summer.

 

Picking teams out this season is very difficult to do. Weirdly enough the team who finished this season in an absolutely horrible run of form was Sunderland. I think they failed to register a victory in any of their last 8 fixtures and they finished 19th in the Premier League form table only below a Terry Connor inspired Wolves. But Martin O''Neill will have money to spend this summer so I cant see that run being repeated again. I guess the managerial situation at Swansea could shape how they get on this season and will be interesting to see how Steven Clarke takes to his first job in management at West Brom. People will dismiss Reading out of hand this season and say that they are a team with no star quality. But they remind me a lot of us last year. Good manager with a very tight knit unit of players who I think could surprise a lot of people.

 

 

[PurpleCanary 5,558]

[quote user="Bethnal Yellow and Green"]

''Young and hungry'' in the English leagues are more expensive than comparable players in leagues across Europe (in many, but not all cases). The fact that Jay R cost Southampton £7m should show everyone that this market is already over stretched. Even last year with players such as Pilkington and Bennett (Ryan and Elliott) costing over £2m each and all with no or very limited Championship experience shows that it was never ''cheap'' to bring in these players.

 

There is no real greater risk with bring in players from Europe, as long as the scouting is done correctly. Many of the mistakes of the past have been players brought in on reputation or on a few good performances on TV. Wasn''t it reported that Hamilton picked up European players by looking at videos of them sent by agents? Norwich have also had plenty of players brought in from the domestic leagues who have flopped badly - just the ones with fancy contiental names stick out more.

 

If Norwich contiune to ignore this market we will be left behind - Southampton have already shown they are willing to throw money around and getting into a straight fight with them for a few lower league targets will nearly always mean failure for Norwich. We need to start making the clever signings that Wigan, Newcastle and Blackburn have been carrying out successfully (until recently in Blackburn''s case of course).

[/quote]

 

Agreed. I was going to use the Rodriguez example. One classic career path is for Scandinavian players to show their can play at a higher level, in the Dutch league, and then move on to one of the big four or five leagues, but I don''t know if there are any players who fit that description at the moment.

[Sussexyellow 55]

[quote user="blahblahblah"]"Reading, Southampton and West Ham are going to be pretty strong this year. I can''t see there being many duffers this year."

I don''t think anyone would have predicted this years duffers though, in August.  Wolves looked pretty sound, as did Owen Coyles Bolton.  Blackburn, well, Kean was always on a hiding to nothing with the owners.  Maybe Wigan will struggle next season without Martinez, Swansea without Rogers ?  But then Norwich could without Lambert - there are no guarantees.  There''s no doubt that 3 or 4 teams will struggle though, they always do.[/quote]

Wigan without Martinez? Have I missed something?

 

Thought he is now showing no signs of leaving. In fact with Laudrup now looking to be taking the Swansea job, I assume Graham Jones will also be staying which means Wigan will be going with the same managerial team as last year. If they carry on from where they left off at the end of last season they could be a useful outfit.

 

OTBC

[Jim Smith 2,317]

As others have mentioned above the problem with young and hungry from the lower leagues is now that others are also following that policy (partly perhaps having seen it work so well for us) and it has pushed the prices up. Consequently I think we may have to take the view that we hoovered up quite a few gems whilst the going was good and now need to look elsewhere. If J-Rod and Rhodes are being priced around the £7m mark then I certainly don;t see many clubs getting players of the quality of Pilks, E Bennett and Howson for the sort of price we did this summer.

I think we are in a reasonable position though and we have the nucleous of a very good squad so Hughton is absolutely right in his "evolution not revolution" policy this summer. First team wise (if Holt stays)  we probably only need 3 additions and then maybe a coupke of younger players as back up.

[Silver Canary 7]

I''m with Jacko on this.At the end of the next season we need to be still in the EPL with a good team - and with the hard debts paid off. That would be a big step forward and we would, for the first time in a long time, have a really sound platform to make the big steps needed to establish us as a real force in the Prem. So the first priority is survival for another season, but its only a first target - we should  aim (and I believe we can) finish a lot higher than 17th (but its a tight league and there are lots of factors like a bad run of injuries for example that can make a big difference in where a team ends up). It was always going to be a difficult season next year. The dross were rightly relegated and replaced by significantly better teams. The reality is that there are at least a dozen sides in the Prem who will privately be looking at survival as the first priority, whatever they may say in public. However we have got a good squad with a year of experience at this level so we have a good basis but we shall need some additions "to give the lads a hand". Where to get them? I think its right that we are looking at a wider market and I''m sure there are good players in Europe who fit our needs and budget. We have had some bad experiences with foreign players but some good ones too - remember Neidegaard (for me he was an fabulous player) and safri wasnt bad either. As Purple reminds us, we dont have a lot of money to splurge - and we have the additional millstone of the hard debt to be paid off. By the end of next season we could be in a much more competitive position. Then will come the difficult decision about when to plunge back into debt to increase the capacity - but that''s one for later. The development of the club will require patience to build up sensible and on a sustainable basis.Meantime I think we are in a good place right now. Next season will be tough and any change in manager doesnt help matters but I think we have a good one in Hughton. Sort out Holtgate and let the fun begin.

[Lavanche 0]

[quote]Why does European targets have to mean shopping in the top leagues? Surely there is some untapped talent on the continent in the lower leagues that we could be looking at. Even if we are looking at the tope leagues, we are not looking to raid to Madrid, or Barcelona. The lower league teams will have quality players that may be quality and affordable. Prime example would be Victor Moses.[/quote]

This is the point which I would like to put up.

There are lot of leagues that have "young and hungry" talent that are equal in levelt with Championship if not over. Eastern European leagues have grown quite big lately and lot of talent get out there.

Problem can be to adabt in Premier League, but as said before, if they are scouted properly risk is same with english players.

For me as a foreign supporter, relegating would be disaster as following team would be a bit of pain in the arse. So I''m happy if the aim is just staying in the league. Ofc I wish we do better, but as I see next year will be a bit harder than first (depending how we do in transfer market) I''m totally satisfied if Hughton will keep us in the league.

For the talent outside England I would turn my eyes to countries like Netherlands, Portugal, Ukraine, Belgium and Croatia. They have quite good league levels and out of the big teams players wont cost that much

Also as I know a lot of Nordic football, for example Teemu Pukki and Alexander Ring (both finnish national players and only 22 and 21 year old) cost under 2 million euros and they left from biggest Finnish team and were hottest prospects in ages. Not to meantion they both went to big Bundesliga teams. So talent is cheap in some countries. Pukki''s goal per minute ratio were even better than our Holt''s, but of course league is bit lower level.

So I would go for foreign markets as english prices are high.

[blahblahblah 2]

My bad sussex yellow, I thought he''d move on.  Getting senile in my old age.that''s probably how rumours start...

[TIL 1010 4,746]

The talk of European transfer targets is achievable once Ewan Chester sets up a network of European scouts.Last time he was here this was what he was brought in for according to what was said at a Club AGM but then along came the lure of Chelsea for him.

[Salopian 1]

I hope that we can improve our defence, probably by signings. Even though we conceded fewer penalties in the latter part of the season, presumably from experience and learning, we still leaked. I hope that Elliott R will continue to improve and that we find a partner to play alongside. Right back will clearly need some kind of signing, and we shall need cover on the left, if Drury takes himself off.

 

The big question is whether we can continue to score goals as we did this season. If Holt does play for us, will he be as productive, or will more teams have worked out how to neutralise him? Ithink that we need another striker, even if Vaughan''s injury record improves. Morison may be able to maintain his ten goal contribution, if he remains fit, but where will the other goals come from?

 

So  we know that compared with our starting game last year we have a more talented squad, if Holt plays. Elliott and Howson represent real improvement in the spine of the team, and Ayala may become very good as well. We all know, however, that we need a new right back, probably a new striker, and cover at full back.

 

A further season in the Premiership will depend on the striker situation and on two or three very good acquisitions. We have not yet gained a confident place in the future, but with the new skills of CH and his team, and the same level of commitment by the squad, we can be optimistic.

[blahblahblah 2]

"At the end of the next season we need to be still in the EPL with a good

team - and with the hard debts paid off. That would be a big step

forward and we would, for the first time in a long time, have a really

sound platform to make the big steps needed to establish us as a real

force in the Prem."But SC - if the board are to be believed, should we survive next season, they will put the club into more debt by getting finance to increase the attendance.  If the Jarrold stand is anything to go by, the club could be in (manageable) debt for up to 10 years to pay for a replacement to the City stand.  Not to mention the loss of income for the games where the stand is being built.I don''t foresee us being any richer than 18th richest in this league until that stand is built and paid off - so we''re always going to have to punch above our weight to stand still.  Thankfully we have a very good foundation of young players, who will hopefully improve as a team.  It''s the players and management team that can make the difference, not (just) the money - thankfully.

[Silver Canary 7]

As others have said, it looks like the market for lower league hungry and talented players is now attracting seriously inflated price tags. There are probably still some gems there but its going to take an increasing amount of work to find them and get them at the right price. Perhaps CH may have a few in mind from last season. Its more likely that the "gems" can be found in Europe and I hope Ewan Chester may have a few names. They should be no more of a risk that home grown players provided that, as Bethnal said, they are properly assessed before we buy. Anyway we already have Ayala and many on this Board were very keen to sign Pacheco.

[stoke canary 0]

Top 17 will do nicely   Thank You

[Silver Canary 7]

Blahx3 - agreed, the timing and cost of the new capacity is a really difficult challenge. If not done right it could actually be anothe millstone round our neck that holds us back from developing on the field. At the end of next season - if we stay up we have a bit of breathing space financially. That''s all. With our (relatively) limited finances its likely that we shall have to develop as a club more slowly and carefully than if we had the billions that some of the top clubs have.  I believe we can get there - but its going to require some very clever decisions to make that happen.

[Syteanric 1]

I like these threads that are titled "Reality check" or "A little perspective".... your reality and your perspective might be far different from the real thing!

[Jim Smith 2,317]

I have to say though that from what I saw of the championship last season (admittedly not that much but a bit) I am not that convinced hat Reading, Saints and West Ham will be markedly stronger than the likes of Bolton and Blackburn. Yes they have the advantage of momentum and the feel good factor but will all need to strengthen quite a bit this summer I think. I don''t think any of them are better than we were when we came up and we actually improved the team/squad more than is realised over the course of last season through the addition of Howson, Pilks, Johnson, E Bennett, R Bennett, Ayala, Morison and Naughton. We didn''t really make a bad signing out of that lot. Not sure they will have quite the same success rate.

The advantage we have is that rather than needing 7 or 8 first teamers this summer we probably only really need to try and add 2 or 3 quality players to our first team plus one or two squad players as back up. A decent right back, CB and a holding midfielder and we will be in good shape. Maybe another striker as well if Holty is off.