Are we safe?

[TIL 1010 4,718]

Taking the hapless Wolves out of the equation apart from having to win these games you lot are worried about Bolton,Blackburn,QPR and Wigan would also have to score a shed load of goals to have a superior goal difference to City even if they caught up.............which they won''t by the way.

[lake district canary 0]

[quote user="TIL 1010"]Taking the hapless Wolves out of the equation apart from having to win these games you lot are worried about Bolton,Blackburn,QPR and Wigan would also have to score a shed load of goals to have a superior goal difference to City even if they caught up.............which they won''t by the way.[/quote]

 

You''re forgetting of course that if we lose every game - which is what we would have to do to get into trouble - our goal difference would decrease proportionally therefore negating any advantage we have at present.  ie. lose 7 games, goal difference goes down by at least 7, QPR win 7 games theres goes up by 7, difference =14 or more putting a qpr scenario team in at around  -12 and us at a similar figure, or worse. 

 

It won''t happen, but it shows why PL has been so concerned to get over the 40 point mark as soon as possible. 

 

 

 

 

[Gordon Bennett 780]

Yes, of course we are safe.

[norfolkbroadslim 223]

There''s more idiots on here than even I imagined!

 

Wake the Fack up!

 

There are 7 games left not 17!

 

The teams below us still have games against eachother!

 

We are 11 points above the relegation zone not 5!

 

Not just 1, 3! Yes 3!!!!! of Blackburn, Wigan, Bolton and QPR need to overtake us for us to be relegated!

 

Do the maths FFS!

[grantroederdisaster 0]

Mathematically no!

 

But the team will grind away until they get mathematically safe. Everton at home on Saturday could be the clincher and lets hope that now Everton are on 43 points with an upcoming FA cup semi they won''t be 100% up for it!

[SWP = Poor Mans Ruel Fox!! 0]

[quote user="patrickhiggins"]

Swansea could play a big part in the relegation battle as they play 4 of the bottom five .

 

The difference is that we have a far harder run in.

 

Suddenly 4 of the bottom five are looking good against anyone in the division

 

We need to dig out a performance against teams on form when we clearly are on a down.

[/quote]

 

Is our run in really that taxing, especially compared to Wigan and QPR?  Yes we have Spurs and Arsenal away, and Man City at home (although it could be a good time to play them).  But Everton at home just before they have an FA Cup Semi they will be desperate to win against the Red Shite? Liverpool and Aston Villa at home does not exactly strike fear, and Blackburn away. 

 

I cannot see us not picking up another point this season.

 

Even if Wigan and QPR manage to pick up at least 39 points this season (which would surprise me) there will be at least 3 teams (if not more) that have still not reached that figure by the end of the season.

 

Just in case anyone is not sure..........WE ARE SAFE!!!!!!!

[Bill 1,788]

"It won''t happen, but it shows why PL has been so concerned to get over the 40 point mark as soon as possible"That is rather silly Mr DistrictIf these bottom clubs are going to do as well as claimed then they are hardly likely to say " Oh no, no more points for us, we are on 39 points"drat !Whilst Norwich sit sniggering inside the brickhouse of 40 points

[lake district canary 0]

Dont get me wrong C1, 40 points is an arbitary figure, but one PL has mentioned several times  as being a ''milestone''.   I am still aware that if we have a good run in we can challenge for 7th place. 

 

Everything to play for!

 

 

[ROBFLECK 132]

Have to say I am still nervous too. We need a result against Everton! But let''s just get behind the boys on saturday! I''m sure we can get a result, but our performances defensively need to get better... We just gifted Fulham 3 points on saturday imo. Lambert is very good at getting the boys up for games, so I hope we can get a result on saturday. That would calm the nerves!

[Cantiaci Canary 556]

[quote user="ROBFLECK"]

Have to say I am still nervous too. We need a result against Everton! But let''s just get behind the boys on saturday! I''m sure we can get a result, but our performances defensively need to get better... We just gifted Fulham 3 points on saturday imo. Lambert is very good at getting the boys up for games, so I hope we can get a result on saturday. That would calm the nerves!

[/quote]

 

Why are there nerves?

 

QPR/Wigan AND Blackburn AND Bolton MUST ALL win 4 out of 7 to catch us AND we need to embark on the worst EVER run under Lambert (8 straight defeats).

 

If it was just one team which needed to win 4 out of 7 then nerves would be slightly justified but to fear that 3 (of the worst 5 in the league) will all do it is bonkers.

 

[First Wizard 0]

Blackpool got relegated last year......on 39 points! [:(]

[ROBFLECK 132]

[quote user="Cantiaci Canary"][quote user="ROBFLECK"]

Have to say I am still nervous too. We need a result against Everton! But let''s just get behind the boys on saturday! I''m sure we can get a result, but our performances defensively need to get better... We just gifted Fulham 3 points on saturday imo. Lambert is very good at getting the boys up for games, so I hope we can get a result on saturday. That would calm the nerves!

[/quote]

 

Why are there nerves?

 

QPR/Wigan AND Blackburn AND Bolton MUST ALL win 4 out of 7 to catch us AND we need to embark on the worst EVER run under Lambert (8 straight defeats).

 

If it was just one team which needed to win 4 out of 7 then nerves would be slightly justified but to fear that 3 (of the worst 5 in the league) will all do it is bonkers.

 

[/quote]Don''t read too much into it Cantiaci, it''s just me...  But I really think we need a result at home on saturday, cause we''ve got a hell of a run in after that...

[lake district canary 0]

If we have a bad run and lose the next few games, you could find a scenario where the clubs below (who are fighting for their lives and improving) have reached 36 points (those on 28 points - 2 wins and 2 draws 2 losses - its not that implausible).   Their goal difference would have improved in the process and ours would have got worse in the process.   So you get to the final game needing a point to stay up. 

 

But and there is a big but!   As previous posters have said, this would mean a drastic loss of season long form on our part, not something you would expect.  It shows that as long as the team carry on as they have been, picking up points, then there will be no problem.  In fact - if playing well 7th is still possible!  What a season!!

 

 

[SwindonCanary 455]

On recent form ( The last 6 games) Only Wolves & Liverpool are worse than us, it''s not good but we haven''t dropped down the league and are still in 12th position.

[Branston Pickle 3,633]

The simple fact is that until we are mathematically safe, anything could happen, so it is natural for supporters to cast a wary eye around at those behind us.

But it would take a flop of proportions never before seen for us to get relegated, in the region of losing all our remaining games while others show somewhat unlikely form - and would certainly outdo ''doing a Blackpool'' by dozens of times: at no point were they clear of the pack, and while they may have finished on 39pts, this was after an entire season, not 30/31 games, and in a league that was always much closer.

Is it likely to happen? of course not. But that won''t stop the niggling feeling that it might, right until we know for sure that it cant.

IMO we will beat Everton and Villa, draw with Blackburn, Liverpool and finish miles clear of the bottom three.

[star_manic 0]

[quote user="First Wizard"]Blackpool got relegated last year......on 39 points! [:(][/quote]..........so what, means absolutely nothing. last year at this point all the bottom teams had several more points than this years bottom 5, which almost certainly means 37 points will be safe, and probably 36 could be.

[Chip20 69]

[quote user="First Wizard"]Blackpool got relegated last year......on 39 points! [:(][/quote]Wiz, the gap between Blackpool and the final relegation spot on 2nd April last year was 1 point. ONE POINT! They were not eleven points clear like we are.

[7rew 0]

Mathematically, we need another 10 points at this stage. However that doesn''t take into account fixtures.

Having took through the fixtures of the Bottom six, these are my conclusions:

Assuming that they lose when facing a top 5 side, win against everyone else, matches between them go as badly for us as possible, and we lose every match, these would be the standings:

Villa 50 points

Bolton 48 points

Blackburn 40 points

Wigan 40 points

Norwich 39 points

QPR 37 points

Wolves 34 points

So are we safe yet? well not even by this reduced measure, but several key matches can be highlighted:

WBA v Blackburn - the first match which would save us by this measure.

Blackburn v Norwich - Blackburn must win this one or we are safe.

Wigan v Newcastle - a match which doesn''t hit top 5 criteria, but almost does.

Blackburn v Wigan - Wigan must win this or we are safe.

Wigan v Wolves - Wigan must win this one as well, or again we are safe.

Oh and on this, Wigan win 4/4 at the end of the season.

[Shaun Tilly Lace 0]

Maybe, maybe not. We need some more good results before the end of the season, whether we need the points or not, to avoid taking mediocre form into next season. though.

[blahblahblah 2]

form tends not to repeat itself exactly, but I took the points from last 7 matches, and added them to the league total so far.Norwich 7 + 39 = 46Stoke 8 + 38 = 46W Brom 10 + 36 = 46Wigan 12 + 28 = 40Bolton 10 + 29 = 39Villa 5 + 33 = 38Blackburn 10 + 28 = 38QPR 7 + 28 = 35Wolves 1 + 22 = 23Bolton, Villa and Blackburn have a game in hand, but any way you look at it, even if the decent current form of 3 of the bottom 5 continues, we''re still a good way out of trouble, even if our own form doesn''t improve.

[marvin the martian 0]

I love the fact that everyone''s predictions has QPR in the bottom 3 [:)]

[thenorthstand 0]

QPR have some horrific fixtures left but proved this weekend that things can get a bit weird at this stage in the season.

[thenorthstand 0]

I personally think the table could be looking a lot less rosy come midweek next week. We will get one point tops (sorry, but Spurs will turn us over easily and Everton on current form probably will too).

Blackburn have 3 games in that time, and don''t put it past them to get something tonight, or against West Brom at the Weekend or Liverpool next tuesday. 3-4 points is a possibility for them.

QPR to beat Swansea next Wednesday? Big game for us and we need Swansea to win it. 3 points for QPR is unwelcome. Bolton are home to Fulham at the weekend. They''ll be hoping for 3 points. Wigan have Chelsea and United so lets pray they take nothing.

I mean this is a bad scenario but possible, if QPR, Bolton and Blackburn all gained 3-5 points on us by next Wednesday we''ll be in a similar position to Villa now, and nobody''s ruling them out of at least being taken to the wire.

[thenorthstand 0]

and BlahBlahBlah, realise you''ve gone on form but I don''t really see where 7 points would come from barring wins against Villa, away at Blackburn and maybe a point against Liverpool or Everton. Any points this weekend would make me a very happy man.

[norfolkbroadslim 223]

Jesus wept![:@][:@][:@]

Lets take a look at Wigan''s next 3 fixtures -

 

Chelsea - away

 

Man U - home

 

Arsenal - away

 

How many points from that lot? Certainly not 9!  Bearing in mind they have won their previous 2 they are not going to win 5 in a row.

 

Look at Wigan''s next 2 fixtures -

 

Fulham - away

 

Newcastle - home

 

On their day at Craven Cottage, Fulham can beat anyone, and recently on their travels Newcastle with the likes of Ba, Cisse, Cabaye, Ben Arthur, have been prolific.  An easy 6 points for Wigan then? Hardly!

 

QPR still have to play Man U, Spurs, Chelsea and Man City!  They also have tricky fixtures against Swansea and West Brom.

 

Blackburn still have to play Man U, Spurs, Chelsea, they also have to travel to Swansea, host us and crucially play Wigan where both teams can''t get 3 points.

 

Bolton probably have the easiest fixtures on paper out of these 4 teams and I can well see them staying up, and perhaps comfortably in the final reckonnings.

 

As soon as we are mathematically safe I don''t think we will switch off.  I think we will play lovely relaxed football and we could well see some surprise results from the lads.

 

The same goes for other teams in midtable.  Once they are mathematically safe one of 2 things may happen.  They may switch off and play carp, but  I don''t think many managers would settle for this and certainly not for a prolonged period. 

 

The four teams mentioned above, won''t keep up their good recent form.  And I can see that as the season end gets closer and their nerves kick in, desperate not to make a mistake / concede a goal that when they come up against one of the ''safe'' midtable teams they will struggle.

 

It wouldn''t surprise me to see Bolton reach 40 points, but I don''t think any of the others will and we will finish comfortably clear of the relegation zone.

[blahblahblah 2]

"and BlahBlahBlah, realise you''ve gone on form but I don''t really see

where 7 points would come from barring wins against Villa, away at

Blackburn and maybe a point against Liverpool or Everton. Any points

this weekend would make me a very happy man."I could see us beating Liverpool at home at the moment.  The wheels seem to have fallen off for them, and we did draw with them at Anfield.  But the form exercise was less about us, and more about what the bottom teams have to do to catch us.  Even if we stumble to another 4 or 5 points (which would put us in the bottom 3 of most fcurrent form tables over 7 games) we''ll be comfortable.

[dpit 1]

"The same goes for other teams in midtable. Once they are mathematically safe one of 2 things may happen. They may switch off and play carp, but I don''t think many managers would settle for this and certainly not for a prolonged period."

He has a point. Last year at least two mid table teams changed their line ups to include goldfish once they had achieved safety but when their lack of feet and the fact that they died when taken out of water and put onto the pitch was noted, the managers went back to their more conventional non-aquatic line ups.

[blahblahblah 2]

"The four teams mentioned above, won''t keep up their good recent form. 

And I can see that as the season end gets closer and their nerves kick

in, desperate not to make a mistake / concede a goal that when they come

up against one of the ''safe'' midtable teams they will struggle."Good post slim, looking at the form table and the fixtures, Wigan are highly unlikely to repeat their success of the last 7 games.  QPR will have to treat every game as a cup final too, and that must wear their players down as there''s only so far playing on adrenalin will take you.

[Bill 1,788]

"Lets take a look at Wigan''s next 3 fixtures -Chelsea - awayMan U - homeArsenal - awayplus Newcastle away "so you would have them having to WIN all three games againstFulhamBlackburnWolveswith the hope that they can beat one of the other fourit would also require us to not get a single point from our last seven games eitherOf course in achieving that requirement it would also dent the hopes of two other strugglers who need the pointsBlackburn also need 12 more points so a draw with us would require a win and a draw out of games against Chelsea, Spurs and Man Utd - and that would only allow us that one point againt them ... assuming they have achieved 3 more wins out of fourQPR, give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they beat Swansea, West Brom and Stoke, they would then need a win against either Spurs, Chelsea, Man City and Man Utd. Again that assumes that we do not pick up one single point moreWhilst Bolton and Villa look to have easier results it still will need FOUR out of that FIVE to all achieve a constant high level of performance.Even West Brom who are just below us have games against Arsenal and Man City will look to be picking up a few points elsewhere, taking points when they play four of the bottom six clubs

There are too many variables, too many games that absolutely need to be won for us to finish in the bottom three. Yes it is mathematically possible just as it is mathematically possible for us to finish on 60 points. For anyone panicking then I suggest you pick one of the bottom five clubs and ask yourself how much would you honestly walk into a bookies and place on them catching us the bet having to two others doing the same.

[Mister Chops 7]

Anyone - anyone - who still thinks we are in danger of being relegated this season (NOT THE SAME THING AS BEING "MATHEMATICALLY SAFE") is a prize bell end or has some kind of personality disorder.  You probably won''t use a microwave in case you combust.  You probably won''t use a mobile phone in case your brain instantly fries.  You probably don''t ever leave the house because something bad might happen.  F**king get a grip, you sad tossers.