Are we safe?

[thenorthstand 0]

I''m not looking to stir the pot here, but we have some tough games and the teams at the bottom are rapidly picking up form.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/predictor/default.stm

I''ve run through a few scenarios of results and some would see us relegated, but I do think we''re as good as safe as long as none of the mid table/top teams have a collapse.

[Trent Canary 0]

Mathematically no, in reality yes. If we were in 17th place with one team needing to go on a great run then it would be more threatening, but several teams have to go on great runs to overhaul us. It really is not going to happen. But there will still be a small sigh of relief once it is mathematically secure.

[Syteanric 1]

we are fine.. as i said last week if i were a Villa fan id really be feeling uneasy now.

[ZLF 271]

Are we safe - ohhh yes.

[whoareyou? 0]

Other teams are in a far worse position than us. Villa and West Brom and even Stoke.

[Pyro Pete 1,886]

We should be safe, but until it''s mathematically the case, don''t get too comfy. With the bottom clubs putting wins together, we shouldn''t be sending out experimental line-ups and formations. Talk about putting yourself under unnecessary pressure.A point or three today would have left me feeling a lot better!

[PurpleCanary 5,553]

[quote user="Trent Canary"]Mathematically no, in reality yes. If we were in 17th place with one team needing to go on a great run then it would be more threatening, but several teams have to go on great runs to overhaul us. It really is not going to happen.

But there will still be a small sigh of relief once it is mathematically secure.
[/quote]

 

Agreed. But, having looked at the fixtures for Wigan, QPR, Bolton and Blackburn, the much-derided 40-point mark is looking increasingly sensible. All four of those could get near it. Not to it, but a lot closer than seemed likely a few weeks ago.

 

With the exception of Blackburn vs Wigan they don''t play each other. And all have some very winnable games in there. QPR have Swansea and Stoke at home and WBA away. Bolton have Fulham, Swansea and WBA at home, and Villa away. Wigan have Wolves at home and Fulham and Blackburn away. Blackburn have Wigan and Norwich at home, and Swansea away.

 

[N city till I die 0]

This is the first time I have been nervous about relegation now because stoke west brom and villa can overtake us easily. Then your looking at the next four teams below that, where you obviously need three out of the four all to pick up points but we could quite easily lose our next three games against Everton, spurs and Man city. Then I would say the gap then would be half that gap it is now with four games to go. Then our last remaining games become massive, so for me the next at Everton is a big one because who would fancy our chances against spurs and man city??

[N city till I die 0]

So you could be looking at a six point gap with three or four games to go. There is no reason why the bottom teams can''t make a late run of form because you only have to look at how tight the league is this season.

[Robert Barnes 19]

no we are not safe just look at the games our next 3 cant see more than a point the bot 3 teams could easily win the next 3 all of a sudden the 11 point lead has gone safe not. yet nervous yes very much so

[Fozzie 0]

We are not ''fine'' and we are not safe.We''ve got games against Everton, Spurs, Man City and Blackburn to maintain our current 11 point advantage before we''re safe, and I''m not at all confident we will do that.Sure, we can do it, but there''s a long, long way to go.

[norfolkbroadslim 223]

Some of you really haven''t thought about this properly!

 

There''s only 7 games to go and importantly the teams below us still have to play games against eachother so they both can''t win!

 

Looking at it from a slightly different angle 3 of Bolton, Blackburn, QPR and Wigan would probably have to win at least 5 of their remaining 7 games! Whilst we would have to only win 1 and lose 6 or draw 2 or 3 and lose 4 or 5 to go down.

 

Yes the teams mentioned above have picked up form but also bearing in mind their games against eachother and for 3 of them to suddenly go on championship form isn''t going to happen whilst also coinciding with us suddenly going on the worst relegation form seen by anyteam this season.

 

This is also without factoring in the likes of Villa and West Brom who are both below us.

 

You''ve probably got more chance of winning the lottery!

[Trent Canary 0]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"]

[quote user="Trent Canary"]Mathematically no, in reality yes. If we were in 17th place with one team needing to go on a great run then it would be more threatening, but several teams have to go on great runs to overhaul us. It really is not going to happen. But there will still be a small sigh of relief once it is mathematically secure.[/quote]

 

Agreed. But, having looked at the fixtures for Wigan, QPR, Bolton and Blackburn, the much-derided 40-point mark is looking increasingly sensible. All four of those could get near it. Not to it, but a lot closer than seemed likely a few weeks ago.

 

With the exception of Blackburn vs Wigan they don''t play each other. And all have some very winnable games in there. QPR have Swansea and Stoke at home and WBA away. Bolton have Fulham, Swansea and WBA at home, and Villa away. Wigan have Wolves at home and Fulham and Blackburn away. Blackburn have Wigan and Norwich at home, and Swansea away.

 

[/quote]They all have winnable games, but so do we. Infact I would say QPR and Wigan have equally as tough run-ins as we do.When we hit 35 points after the Swansea (?) game, I said that we could lose every match for the rest of the season and still stay up, with 35 points being enough. While I wouldnt put my house on it, I still stand by that, and will happily admit I was wrong if more than 35 is needed. However as it stands we need to lose every game, and for multiple teams to go on a tremendous run of form for us to go down. It is possible, but highly unlikely.Either way, until we are mathematically certain we need to treat every game with the same intensity as the ones throughout the rest of the season. I would hate for this amazing season to end up in a last minute relegation fight.

[fonejacker 0]

I want us to acheive that mathematical safety as soon as possible and as a bonus, finish the highest of the promoted teams. They''re both important to me.

[PurpleCanary 5,553]

[quote user="Trent Canary"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]

[quote user="Trent Canary"]Mathematically no, in reality yes. If we were in 17th place with one team needing to go on a great run then it would be more threatening, but several teams have to go on great runs to overhaul us. It really is not going to happen.

But there will still be a small sigh of relief once it is mathematically secure.
[/quote]

 

Agreed. But, having looked at the fixtures for Wigan, QPR, Bolton and Blackburn, the much-derided 40-point mark is looking increasingly sensible. All four of those could get near it. Not to it, but a lot closer than seemed likely a few weeks ago.

 

With the exception of Blackburn vs Wigan they don''t play each other. And all have some very winnable games in there. QPR have Swansea and Stoke at home and WBA away. Bolton have Fulham, Swansea and WBA at home, and Villa away. Wigan have Wolves at home and Fulham and Blackburn away. Blackburn have Wigan and Norwich at home, and Swansea away.

 

[/quote]

They all have winnable games, but so do we. Infact I would say QPR and Wigan have equally as tough run-ins as we do.

When we hit 35 points after the Swansea (?) game, I said that we could lose every match for the rest of the season and still stay up, with 35 points being enough. While I wouldnt put my house on it, I still stand by that, and will happily admit I was wrong if more than 35 is needed. However as it stands we need to lose every game, and for multiple teams to go on a tremendous run of form for us to go down. It is possible, but highly unlikely.

Either way, until we are mathematically certain we need to treat every game with the same intensity as the ones throughout the rest of the season. I would hate for this amazing season to end up in a last minute relegation fight.
[/quote]

 

Trent, given that the four relevant teams have 28 or 29 points I suspect you''re right not to put your house on it! They just need two wins and two draws each (from either seven or eight games) and they all on at least 35. And it doesn''t need all four to get to 35 points for that to be the total to beat.

 

I repeat I am not arguing that we are in real danger (Villa are if anyone is); only that it looks as if two teams (Wolves are gone) will get relegated with a higher points tally than seemed likely.

[technika 0]

if the players start thinking it then no.really hope they dont back off, run in fixtures are tough and if we have a bad run could be sweaty palm time before too long, id like to see some real terry butcher take no tihs performances even if its only a battle for 12th for the rest of the season. that extra few quid for a place might be the difference between signing quality or ''not bad'' players in the summer

[JF 694]

Mathematically no, Realistically yes. Am sure we will pick up some more points before the end of the season and I cant see the 3rd from bottom getting to 39 points anyway.

[nutty nigel 7,506]

[quote user="thenorthstand"]I''m not looking to stir the pot here, but we have some tough games and the teams at the bottom are rapidly picking up form. http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/predictor/default.stm I''ve run through a few scenarios of results and some would see us relegated, but I do think we''re as good as safe as long as none of the mid table/top teams have a collapse.[/quote]

 

That''s interesting.

 

In the scenartios that saw us relegated how many points did we go down with?

 

 

[JF 694]

For us to be relegated we would have to lose every game for the rest of the season. Thats not gonna happen.

[Trent Canary 0]

PC - I  think we are on the same wavelength. As you say, it looks likely the safe points total will be a few higher than it had looked. Ill still go with 35 as I would hate to change something I had previously argued for, but the lower teams are coming into form (Or more to the point, are playing teams who have nothing to play for) and it may end up more than I had thought. We still may need a point or two more.However  if we do happen to have a losing run, and the bottom five go on sustained good runs, then that is the time to worry. Right now I am just happy to look at the table and see us in 12th, something I doubt many of us would have called back in August.

[Aggy 747]

Yes, we''re safe this season. However, the recent run has made me rethink my expectations for summer signings. After Swansea, I thought we could maybe get away with only bringing in 2 or 3 additions and we''d still be comfortably sitting near the top of that non-European-places tier you get in the Prem.

The only points we''ve got since losing to Leicester are a draw against Wigan, where we looked pretty poor, and a win against Wolves where we also didn''t exactly look like worldbeaters. We''ve actually looked pretty decent at other times, but still come away with nothing for whatever reasons.

I now think we may need a few more changes and improvements over the summer than I earlier thought. I just hope that we haven''t survived this season because of a "honeymoon" period as a newly promoted club and we struggle next season. I''m pretty sure we won''t - Lambert doesn''t seem the type to let it happen - but even the best managers can take a team to a certain level but sometimes go no further, and even start falling backwards. its still fa r too early to be worrying about that yet, but that thought has begun to creep into my head - whereas a month or so ago, I was far more confident that it wouldn''t happen.

[RvWs 4 year contract 0]

The bottom 3 wont get to 35 points, as I said last week.I maintain that point of view.

[Ivan Easter 0]

If the bottom teams keep performing and we don''t it will be very tight. Need to strengthen this summer, Norwich will have to spend a bit whether they want to or not in order to tighten up squad for next season.

[patrickhiggins 0]

This campaign starts to have the feel of 94-5 all over again.

 Comfortable at one stage, looking good even ( 6th at New Year), a woeful F A Cup exit (at Everton), then a number of decent away performances with little or no reward and zero good fortune ( West Ham Leicester Tottenham, Leeds amongst others ).

A single home win to make people think we are safe (3-0 over Ipswich in 94-5), then a slide into disaster, with a home game against Villa to finish.

Hopefully it won''t go as badly wrong this time

But I wouldn''t rule it out as it stands, with a tricky April to come.

 

[Mister Chops 7]

[quote user="thenorthstand"]Are we safe?[/quote]I don''t know.  Do Catholic Bears sh*t in the woods?

[Dame to Blame 95]

Its true we have a tough run in but if wigan can beat liverpool away as did qpr at home and then qpr go and beat arsenal as well , why cant we beat a faultering man city an everton team with an eye on the fa cup and Villa who are looking very shaky.

[SWP = Poor Mans Ruel Fox!! 0]

 

Oh Swansea lost today as well and are also only on 39 points, therefore they are not safe either?  Actually it appears that the relegation scrap is between the bottom 11 teams according to some posters.......

[patrickhiggins 0]

Swansea could play a big part in the relegation battle as they play 4 of the bottom five .

 

The difference is that we have a far harder run in.

 

Suddenly 4 of the bottom five are looking good against anyone in the division

 

We need to dig out a performance against teams on form when we clearly are on a down.

[marvin the martian 0]

If anyone really needs to worry it''s Villa fans, not us.

[RvWs 4 year contract 0]

Are people still wetting themselves about relegation troubles this season?Christ on a bike....When we beat Everton next week will people still be saying this?