Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
65Vintage

We're doing brilliantly - how many points needed to stay up?

Recommended Posts

We are doing so well this season, not that I didn''t think we would do, I

think we just surprised everyone who had not followed our fortunes

closely - particularly the so called pundits.

Just wondered how many points people think we will need to be safe this

season?  The points needed to avoid relegation, from 2004/05 onwards

were:

         2004/05  34 points

         2005/06  35 points

         2006/07  38 points

         2007/08  36 points

         2008/09  35 points

         2009/10  31 points

         2010/11  40 points

         2011/12  ?? points

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="65Vintage"]We are doing so well this season, not that I didn''t think we would do, I

think we just surprised everyone who had not followed our fortunes

closely - particularly the so called pundits.

Just wondered how many points people think we will need to be safe this

season?  The points needed to avoid relegation, from 2004/05 onwards

were:

         2004/05  34 points

         2005/06  35 points

         2006/07  38 points

         2007/08  36 points

         2008/09  35 points

         2009/10  31 points

         2010/11  40 points

         2011/12  ?? points[/quote]if you have the time check the points total at 21 games and see how many more points were gained35 should be enough for any team down therewe would need around a third of a point a game over our remaining 17 games to be one of those clubs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="City1st"][quote user="65Vintage"]We are doing so well this season, not that I didn''t think we would do, I

think we just surprised everyone who had not followed our fortunes

closely - particularly the so called pundits.

Just wondered how many points people think we will need to be safe this

season?  The points needed to avoid relegation, from 2004/05 onwards

were:

         2004/05  34 points

         2005/06  35 points

         2006/07  38 points

         2007/08  36 points

         2008/09  35 points

         2009/10  31 points

         2010/11  40 points

         2011/12  ?? points[/quote]if you have the time check the points total at 21 games and see how many more points were gained35 should be enough for any team down therewe would need around a third of a point a game over our remaining 17 games to be one of those clubs[/quote]Totally agree, 10 points will be more than enough.35 points total may be a little hairy but 38 would see us well safe with games to spare.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
And actually our current games/points ratio, if my calculations are correct equals about 50....

(28/21=1.3333333333etc, thats x38 =50.66666666667)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Totally agree, 10 points will be more than enough" (not saying that''s your ambition)

were that to happen it would be a massive collapseto only achieve that number of points over the remaining 17 games would give a season total of 22 points !we got 33 points in the season we were relegated - and then only missed staying up by ONE point

What is ironic is this forum is cluttered up with endless whinges about how the board don''t have ''hambition'', won''t back the manager, little ole norwich etc   yet they have got us into 9th place. Have kept us safely mid table most of the season and yet here we still have endless bleats about relegation. It is not going to happen.We are in fact getting further a further away from the bottom three as the season progresses. The goal difference between us and the bottom is huge. We have scored more goals than most, with players who were derided for not having Premier League experienceand yet .... and yet
..... the ever so ''umble, little ole Norwich mentality persists

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
We will stay up no doubt about that, the sooner we pass the safety margin though the better - I just wondered what people thought the safety margin would be this season.My thoughts were that even just another couple of wins and a draw might do it.I would hope, barring major injury problems etc, to finish comfortably mid table though, provided Lambert stays.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="Gingerpele"]City1st, the forum is not full of that, there is only actually one or two posters who really think that.[/quote]maybe they are the same ones posting under different namesbut there are far more than one or two harping on about us hoping to avoid relegation and questioning wether the club is going to ''back'' the manager

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You would have needed 40 points to stay up last season. Blackburn are good enough to stay up as are Wolves, West Brom and QPR. IMHO that leaves one team to join Bolton and Wigan in being relegated. We need to keep getting points to make sure it isn''t us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
"4 wins and a draw imo"so this season is going to be completely different to all others, any reason why ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So far, the only month we haven''t won a game is August; in all the months that have followed we have got either 1 or 2.

February: sunderland, BOLTON, swansea, MAN UTD

March: stoke, WIGAN, newcastle, WOLVES, fulham

April: EVERTON, spurs, MAN CITY, blackburn, LIVERPOOL

May: Arsenal, VILLA

Each month apart from May gives us what I would consider at least 2 fantastic opportunities to do this. But if we can get a run going in March, we''ll look unstoppable; they look like games we can at least get points from.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[quote user="City1st"]"4 wins and a draw imo"

so this season is going to be completely different to all others, any reason why ?
[/quote]

 

The question was how many points for safety, I said 13 pts should do us,  it didn''t ask how many will we finally get.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Assuming a team which has already qualified for the Champions Leaguw wins the FA Cup (if we don''t win it [:)]) how far down do the Europa League spots go? That will be of more concern to us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
"The question was how many points for safety, I said 13 pts should do us"So should 17 points, 20 points, 23 points or even 51 pointsalmost every other season the bottom three have been relegated with around twice the points total of the bottom three at the halfway stagewhich were this season15 Wigan14 Blackburn13 Boltonwhich suggest any club wanting to avoid relegation should be aiming for 31 points be generous and add a few more and 35 will do it2010/11 was a very high points total - as the bottom 5 were all 5 points ahead of what they are this season

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Of course, unless I''m mistaken, the higher up we finish, the more TV revenue we get. 17th is okay but it won''t help nearly as much as 9th place in terms of available funds to attract more talent. So keep aiming high so we can keep this thing going for year

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 points. But frankly if we are anywhere close to the relegation zone at the end of the season then something is going to have to go drastically wrong. To be honest I think we could lose out next ten games and still be out of the bottom three.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

City 1st has a point. But I like to think how I would imagine Lambert does. Take each game as it comes, get the points to make us safe then let''s push on from there.40 points is probably more than enough but it has always been the magic number. Get to 40 and keep going. Because of how well we are doing now we can now afford to have a decent cup run along side the league which really excites me. I also think we will beat one of the so called BIG teams. This Saturday chelsea at home bring it on. Correct me if I''m wrong if chelsea win it will be the 1st time a team has done a league double on us since Lambert took over. I think we will win.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 wins and we''ll be safe imo

 

We will get considerably more than the 37pts that would mean, starting with 3pts next weekend - I gotta feelin''

 

I think each place you finish higher in the league is worth about £800k - not a sum to be sniffed at. The difference between finishing 8th (our realistic highest possibility) and 17th is a neat £7m+. I will be satisfied to finish 17th as that was our original target and my level of happiness will rise expodentially for every place higher than that.

 

Its OK to re realistic, but the reason we are succeeding is because we have ambition. Our ambition is that we finish as high up the league as we can, but at this stage it doesn''t mean we won''t be satisfied with 17th.

 

COYY!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lambert made it clear in his interview yesterday that his first objective remains ensuring that we finish at least 17th.   That is the be all and end all.

 

Like everyone else I am confident that we will continue to pick up points and will end securely mid table - with every final position above 17th a bonus.  

 

What do I think we will need to be safe this season? 36points for me;   blackburn are starting to pick up points but too many have to do that - if it gets to a 40pt mark the last game will be a scramble with possibly 6 teams at risk of going down.   I do see that being us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

4à pts will be ample to stay up this season.

 

Lambert may have said this  business about finishing at least 17th in his interview, but everything about his demeanour, the way he sets his stall out , and the attitude of the players points to the fact that he genuinely does not look at the long term like this. I know it''s a cliché, but he clearly DOES take each game as it comes, and tries to win every one.  I can never remember a Norwich team that has become so adept so quickly at winning games by playing a bit ugly at times and ruthlessly taking the few chances created . I hope I''m not speaking too soon, but we really do also seem to be eradicating the silly defensive errors, and if we can just keep a few clean-sheets, then a top seven finish would not be out of the question.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Finish 7th ( which is still theorhetcially possible) & that will be the equivalent in finishing in the top 5 by previous teams,  given the huge imbalances of funds.  I just dont think our defence is quite good enough to hit those heights.

 

But address that and a little more pace as an attacking force then next season?...

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...