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jed exodous

Nice bet for us to stay up...

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Morning all

 

Ok, been looking at some antepost bets for the season ahead.  In particular, the handicap markets on winning the league.  Currently, we are priced around 5/4 to stay up, (meaning if you bet £4 you get £5 back), however, on the handicap market, to win the lead with a 45 point headstart, we are 15/1 (meaning bet £1 you get £16 back). 

 

Last season, Man U won the league with 80 points, meaning for the bet to com in, we''d need 36 points.  In 2010, Chelsea won with 86 points, meaning we''d need 42 for it to come in, and in 2009, Man U won with 90 points, meaning we''d need 46. 

 

It is a gamble, but the odds represent much better value than the 5/4 on offer.  Also, the bet could still come in even if the worst should happen and even if it did, for £5, you could go and collect £80 to soften the blow.

 

Found the bet here, but i expect you can go into any high street betting shop and get on there.

http://sports.coral.co.uk/sport/en#/drilldown/group/10116/

 

I was very pesimistic early in the summer, and repeatedley said i expect us to struggle this season.  In hindsight, i was a little quick to judge.  After watching pre-season, i''m feeling a lot more confident.  I think we can get 40 points needed, our strikers are scoring, the defence looks fairly tight and the we''ve got a lot of creativity in midfirled and going forward.  I will be lumping on this bet before the season starts.  Good luck if you choose to...

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Cheers. I''m not a betting man, however I was looking yesterday and was wondering what the handicap was all about. Might be worth a tenner at those odds.

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If it''s 5/4 for us to stay up, then a £4 stake would win you £9, not £5.

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Bear in mind Jed that it''s not just the top club your up against but all clubs plus their handicap. But it still looks good, for example on bet365 we are +45 points and 16/1. If we stay up we''re looking at about 90 points at that handicap, and considering only Everton (minus the big 6) topped 50 points it''s worth a look!

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Hmmm, perhaps i''ve misunderstood the bet then.  So Fellas, are you saying whatever points each team ends up on, the bookies then add on the handicaps for all the teams?  Am i then also correct in thinking that there can only be 1 winner out of all 20 teams? 

cheers... 

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Yep precisely. The handicaps points they add to each team should work out that all teams theoretically end up on the same points. The team that ends up with the most points will be the winner.

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Right, ok perhaps not such a good bet then.  I''ve always thought you could perhaps get 2 or 3 winners from that bet.  My bad...

 

cheers

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Yeah they will add the handicap on to all the teams. The correct odds on this bet would be 19-1 assuming the handicaps are all accurate. So taking 15-1 is a pretty bad price unless you think the handicap is way out for a particular team.

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I''m not sure its all that bad. I remember first coming across the handicap league in the 92/3 season when my politics A level teacher introduced us to it having bet on Palace to win it! He was not happy when we had it won by February that season. Can''t remember exactly what ours was that season but it was similar.

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I''ve got 19''s on us with +45 and 3''s on us being the top promoted side, for some reason QPR are odds on on a lot of sites.

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Before we all do are life savings just to let you know last years handicap winners across the big four (ladbrokes, hills, coral, tote) ranged from 92 to 97 points as they all have their own individual handicap markets.On this basis if it was the same for this year Norwich would likely need to get around 50pts to win it and about 45pts to be placed.  I hope I am wrong but I can''t see us winning it although I could see us sneaking into a place.Hope this helps.

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[quote user="Punting Canary"]Before we all do are life savings just to let you know last years handicap winners across the big four (ladbrokes, hills, coral, tote) ranged from 92 to 97 points as they all have their own individual handicap markets.

On this basis if it was the same for this year Norwich would likely need to get around 50pts to win it and about 45pts to be placed.  I hope I am wrong but I can''t see us winning it although I could see us sneaking into a place.

Hope this helps.
[/quote]

Exactly why I always do E/W as it''s much easier to get in the top 4 than win it. I''ve won on us the past two seasons so hopefull third time lucky also..

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Regards the EW what you have to think about is the ew terms.  I think in this case they are 1/4 1,2,3,4 which at 16-1 would mean that the place is 4-1 return minus your losing win part of the ew bet which works out at a profit of 3-1.  You can convert 3-1 to a % chance of 25% so basically for the bet to be "value" you have to think Norwich have either better than a 6% chance of winning the handicap or 20% chance of being in the top 4.

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Thing is, I just don''t think we''re gonna scrape survival and finish 4th from bottom, I really don''t. We''re either going to tank spectacularly and finish last, OR we''re going to stay up with ease and maybe even finish right at the top... (of the bottom half!)

Which is what makes this bet attractive to me. So def gonna have a stab at this one to win. No point in going e/w unless you''re prepared to put a lot down.

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[quote user="a1canary"]Thing is, I just don''t think we''re gonna scrape survival and finish 4th from bottom, I really don''t. We''re either going to tank spectacularly and finish last, OR we''re going to stay up with ease and maybe even finish right at the top... (of the bottom half!) Which is what makes this bet attractive to me. So def gonna have a stab at this one to win. No point in going e/w unless you''re prepared to put a lot down.[/quote]

The attraction is that our handicap is 45 and is the largest. We are being underestimated by the bookies IMO as I''m pretty confident of us staying up as most independent observers appear to be also. I always go E/W as it insures the bet, as it did last season, and it''s nice to at least get your money back. I backed us E/W for the title and for Holt as top-scorer and returned over 600 quid whereas I would have returned nothing otherwise.   

 

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