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Reykjavik Canary

Are 40 points enough?

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Mallorca 44

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Deportivo 43

Hércules 35

Almería 30

Nice 46

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Monaco 44

Lens 35

Arles 20

Wolves 40

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Birmingham 39

Blackpool 39

West Ham 33

Lecce 41

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Sampdoria 36

Brescia 32

Bari 24

Last season the AVERAGE 18th placed team in Italy, England, France and Spain accumulated 40.5 points. Monaco were relegated with 44!!! points and Deportivo with 43 points. That''s crazy. I think it might boil down to that mutch in the England Prem this season.

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[quote user="NauruDude"]Mallorca 44

---------------

Deportivo 43

Hércules 35

Almería 30

Nice 46

----------

Monaco 44

Lens 35

Arles 20

Wolves 40

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Birmingham 39

Blackpool 39

West Ham 33

Lecce 41

------------

Sampdoria 36

Brescia 32

Bari 24

Last season the AVERAGE 18th placed team in Italy, England, France and Spain accumulated 40.5 points. Monaco were relegated with 44!!! points and Deportivo with 43 points. That''s crazy. I think it might boil down to that mutch in the England Prem this season.[/quote]There''s no point comparing the Prem to other European leagues, you have to go back to 2003 in the prem to find a team that got relegate with 40+ points, in most seasons 40 is more than enough.

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[quote user="NauruDude"]Why cant you compaer them. If it can happen in 20-team leagues around us then it can happen in our 20-point league. We just have to aim higher.[/quote]It''s hardly a well kept secret that there''s abnormal disparity in the Premier League, with a series of at least 3 ''mini-leagues''. Other than the Premier League, La Liga can ''boast'' at most 3 of these, but even the top one consists of only 2 or 3 teams, to our 4, 5, or quite possibly even 6.Reprecussions felt in the points column aren''t lost on most Premier League fans because of this.

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[quote user="NauruDude"]Why cant you compaer them. If it can happen in 20-team leagues around us then it can happen in our 20-point league. We just have to aim higher.[/quote]Because they''re not the same league.  Apples, oranges and all that jazz!

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So youre saying the Spanish and French leagues are the same????

The number of games are same in all those leagues and the number of points you can gain over the season are the SAME. That means the number of points needed to avoid relegation will be about the same.

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Don''t think you can really draw any averages out of a comparison of 4 leagues in seperate countries.  We''re in the Premier League, it makes no difference what happens in La Liga, etc.

 

What does strike me from that list, though, is the relegation of Monaco and Lens... weren''t these teams in Europe not so long ago? Seems a bit of a Leeds-style fall from grace, there...?

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[quote user="NauruDude"]So youre saying the Spanish and French leagues are the same????

The number of games are same in all those leagues and the number of points you can gain over the season are the SAME. That means the number of points needed to avoid relegation will be about the same.[/quote]No, I wouldn''t say the French and Spanish leagues are the same, that''s exactly my point, they''re all different.  Having the same amount of points available is a factor, but that doesn''t take into account the fact that some leagues may be closer than others.  If we look at the premier league (which I know isn''t identical every year but is the closest we can look at) then 40points would usually mean that there are 5 or 6 teams below you.  Last season was actually a bit of an anomaly in that 40 points was only just enough.Sure more than 40 points gives you a better chance, as in 2003 West Ham went down with 42 points, but I don''t see any reason to argue that the general rule of thumb has changed, certainly by using other leagues.  Last season the Isthmian North had 21 teams and 40 points would''ve seen you 16th but the Southen division had 22 teams and 40 points got you 21.  Hence my point, it''s like comparing apples with oranges.

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If we get to 45 points we will have had an amazing season.

Yes there is the chance that 40 points wont be enough - but its 9 seasons since someone went down with that many - it happens, just not often.

If we can get to 42 (it is after all the meaning of everything, esp life let alone football) I will be a v happy man :-)

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40 points should be enough. it generally depends how bad the top teams are, or how few there are. if there are a lot of top teams (this year should have at least 5 -mu,mc,afc,cfc,lfc and possibly spurs) playing well then there are less points for the lower teams, so 40 should be fine. although this can be squed (sp?) by all the chasing 14-15 teams being equally matched. but still i think we would be safe if we reached the 40.generally with most foreign leagues there are only 2-3 top sides any given year which is why the lower teams tally is usually higher.

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