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The Voice Of Reason

35 POINTS ENOUGH?

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C''mon then, over the past few years safety from the prem was achieved with as few as 35 and as many as 45 points.

How many can we get?

I can see a few winnable games, but surely we will have to rely on lots of draws as well.

This will require a major change in tactics - protecting leads or trying ''anti football'' to become harder to beat.

Can we really change that much?

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[quote user="The Voice Of Reason"] How many can we get? [/quote]Well as things stand we can get 114 points with everything still to play for!

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I think it''s going to be another season when its really tight down the bottom and like the other poster said I think we will need a good 41/42/43 points.

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Let me just quickly look into the future........ more than 35 needed fo sho

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hopefully we''ll have more than 40 by the time we are in April as cant see us getting manty wins in the last 6 or 7 games...but with this Lambert chap at the helm I''ll never say never. Never.

Isn''t the unwritten rule its only the 41-45 points total needed when there are 1 or 2 prem teams that are awful that dont even hit 20 points like 1p5wich, watford, hull, etc...and 35 will do when the lower teams are of similar standard like last prem season and when we went down with palace and so''ton?

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[quote user="Felixfan"]4 points a month[/quote]Now that''s good psychology I feel even more confident we''ll be okay now I''ve seen it written that we only need around 4 points a month.

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Got bored at work and did some checking. Since the PL went down to 20 clubs (95-96) only 1 club has got more than 40 poinst and been relegated (wet Sham in 02-03) and only 2 clubs relegated with 40 - Bolton on goal difference in 98 & sunderland the season before by a point.

Over those 16 seasons the average points for 18th team has been 36; while 17th & safety is 38. The lowest "safe" total was the year we got relegated with 34 points.

So far never has a team been relegated after getting 11 wins (several with 10) or by conceeding fewer than 50 goals.

Our aims should be to be safe at the back - fewer than 50 conceeded - out scoring does not work; check blackpool - and aiming for 41 points to be absolutely sure. 38 points statistically may be enough.

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There''s not the gap between sides that there were in previous seasons in the Prem, so 35 is totally unrealistic and we will need at least 40 IMO, and 42 to be safe. 

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[quote user="paul moy"]There''s not the gap between sides that there were in previous seasons in the Prem, so 35 is totally unrealistic and we will need at least 40 IMO, and 42 to be safe. [/quote]

As far as not being a gap its hard to tell - signings not yet completed and the new promoted teams will continue to struggle.

It is 9 seasons since a team got relegated with 40 points, and in 3 of the last 8 35pts HAS been enough to be safe, and as far as being recent that includes both the 08/09 and 09/10 seasons so its not totally unrealistic at all. Even 07/08 only had 36 pts as the safe place.

I agree its not a figure to aim for - but 38 might be - while the old adage of getting to 40 will almost certainly guarantee safety.

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So if we could get 11 wins (and thats a big if) we should pretty much be okay, assuming we don''t become the first team not to draw a game in the premier league!

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[quote user="Canary23"]So if we could get 11 wins (and thats a big if) we should pretty much be okay, assuming we don''t become the first team not to draw a game in the premier league![/quote]

38 Games to choose from, which 11 do we think?

Bolton, Sunderland, Man U, Newcastle and Swansea. Thats a start.

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[quote user="The Voice Of Reason"][quote user="Canary23"]So if we could get 11 wins (and thats a big if) we should pretty much be okay, assuming we don''t become the first team not to draw a game in the premier league![/quote] 38 Games to choose from, which 11 do we think? Bolton, Sunderland, Man U, Newcastle and Swansea. Thats a start.[/quote]

I''ll go for at least one win against each of Wigan, QPR, Wolves, Stoke, Swansea, Fulham, Newcastle, Blackburn, Everton, WBA and Aston Villa

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I think myself 98 points will see us safe from the drop, thats what PL will be looking at.Now back to earth, 42 will see us safe so 42 is what we should aim for but more if we can.

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