Points for Auto / Play Offs

[Pabs 0]

What do people think the required points total will amount to for 2nd and the PlayOffs?

I think it could be a little higher than usual this season. I reckon that 86 will get us automatic promotion for sure (tall ask - need 23 points from 10 games = 7 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat).

Play Offs I can see being about 77 points because there are now about 8 teams who are pushing for it, and some have games in hand. That would only requre 14 points (4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats).

The second option sounds quite easy in all honesty - we should definitely fight for 2nd now. In likelihood, I could see us getting somewhere in between the two figures with about 81 points. If other teams stutter, or QPR get points deducted, it could be enough for 2nd but I would say we will finish 3rd or 4th with a date at Wembley to look forward to...!

Exciting times!

[Ginja 26]

Actually I think with the league so closely contested the required points will be lower than normal, over 73 for the play offs and over 81 for the auto spot. I think we will get about 78 points and finish 4th, 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 loses.

Bristol (H) - WinHull (A) - LoseScunthorpe (H) - DrawSwansea (A) - WinWatford (A) - LoseForest (H) - WinIpswich (A) - WinDerby (H) - Lose Portsmouth (A) - DrawCoventry (H) - Draw

[I am a Banana 0]

4th is the worst spot to finish. not once in the last 10 years has the team who finished in fouth gone up!!

[Hairy Canary 668]

[quote user="Notts Canary"]Actually I think with the league so closely contested the required points will be lower than normal, over 73 for the play offs and over 81 for the auto spot. I think we will get about 78 points and finish 4th, 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 loses.

Bristol (H) - Win
Hull (A) - Lose
Scunthorpe (H) - Draw
Swansea (A) - Win
Watford (A) - Lose
Forest (H) - Win
Ipswich (A) - Win
Derby (H) - Lose
Portsmouth (A) - Draw
Coventry (H) - Draw

[/quote]

Not a very optimistic set of results for the last three games Notts, especially as two of the teams are likely to be mid-table and have nothing to play for. I feel we''ll do better than that and end up with about 81 points. Toss of a coin if thats going to be enough or not.

[JJ 0]

No team has ever recieved auto promotion from the championship with less than 84 points. I heard from someone.

[ron obvious 1,499]

[quote user="James_NCFC"]No team has ever recieved auto promotion from the championship with less than 84 points. I heard from someone.[/quote]2007/2008:Pos     Name     P     W     D     L     F     A     GD     PTS1     WBA     46     23     12     11     88     55     33     812     Stoke City     46     21     16     9     69     55     14     793     Hull City     46     21     12     13     65     47     18     754     Bristol City     46     20     14     12     54     53     1     745     Crystal Palace     46     18     17     11     58     42     16     716     Watford     46     18     16     12     62     56     6     70Freak year though, usually need 85-90 points.

[CaptnCanary 0]

Nobody has averaged as much as 2 points per game this season. I reckon 19 points from 10 games for a total of 82 would see us scrape 2nd.

[Ginja 26]

[quote user="Hairy Canary"]

Not a very optimistic set of results for the last three games Notts, especially as two of the teams are likely to be mid-table and have nothing to play for. I feel we''ll do better than that and end up with about 81 points. Toss of a coin if thats going to be enough or not.

[/quote]I find we seem to perform better when up against tought teams, hence why I think we''ll draw at Home to Scunthorpe but beat Swansea away. Teams that have nothing to play for can be difficult to break down and are more relaxed about their football, but looking at those games they could be the key to us finishing in the play offs or the auto spot.

[Gingerpele 0]

Ron, you went back a season too far. Brum did it with 83 in 08/09

[ron obvious 1,499]

[quote user="Gingerpele"]Ron, you went back a season too far. Brum did it with 83 in 08/09[/quote]True, but I wasn''t going to quibble about a point! Still, that makes twice in the last few years. Given how tight it is this year, I wouldn''t be surprised to see promotion with points in the low eighties. Exciting times!

[Europe_93 11]

Any more than 82 will see a team promoted, I think.  Our form probably puts us on that number, I think we may get a couple more points (84).  With so many of the top 6 playing each other, possible but unlikely points deduction for QPR less may be required.  Apart from Cardiff who have a bit of extra fire power if they hit top form, I would be surpirsed to see any one go on a 6+ match winning run now.  Our season consistency and depth of squad in most areas I hope will pull us over the line.  I''d really like to see us bring in the likes of S Morrisson on loan, with a view to a permanent move in the summer, just to give us a bit extra

[Bill 1,788]

"I think it could be a little higher than usual this season"

eh !

Given that the points total of the top two is trailing around six points behind what it was last season and most of the latter part of this season the points totals at the top of the leage have been below average I would suggest the totals will be well lower.

83 points to achieve 2nd spot - 4 points every two games and up we go.

One of the reasons for lower points appears to be that there is no real runaway team. Qpr pulled awat a long while back but have never really built on that. All teams seem capable of losing and drawing to ''lesser'' team - other than us, who seem to draw games that we should have won.

[ricardo 7,345]

[quote user="City1st"]"I think it could be a little higher than usual this season"

eh !

Given that the points total of the top two is trailing around six points behind what it was last season and most of the latter part of this season the points totals at the top of the leage have been below average I would suggest the totals will be well lower.

83 points to achieve 2nd spot - 4 points every two games and up we go.

One of the reasons for lower points appears to be that there is no real runaway team. Qpr pulled awat a long while back but have never really built on that. All teams seem capable of losing and drawing to ''lesser'' team - other than us, who seem to draw games that we should have won.[/quote]Yes, I agree with this.Another 20 points should be enough. I can''t see any more than 4 teams at most breaking 80 points. I think it will be a case of having to win the final game to clinch it.

[Pabs 0]

Yes...thinking about this again, maybe maths isn''t my strong point/

Agreed now that it could be 82ish for auto. But still think the bottom of the p/offs could be quite high too with teams pushing each other (75-77).

Makes it seem much more achieveable. Looking at the last ten games, about 19 points is very realistic. 6 wins and a draw or 5 wins, 4 draws...

[Bill 1,788]

My suggestion for a points total has not really changed since before XmasIf you look closely we have been pulling a win after many times where we have seemly stumbled on an unexpected draw.  That is the four points from 2 games mantra I have been going on about. We still have not lost two in a row, which pretty much underpins that 4 point take. If you don''t lose two in a row then one game has to be at least a draw . That has been the basis for our current league position.I appreciate those stumbles against Preston and Doncaster may look like we are faltering - and were others not to be dropping points we would be a bit further down the table. However set against our rivals results our stumbles look no more than par for the course for all.What gives me so much belief and subsequently confidence is the way the club is being run. When it was announced (pre season) that extra seats were being squeezed into Carrow Road I knew then that club expected far more from the seaon than they let on. They will have known right from the start that this was an unmissable chance to go up. They might have nodded to the idea of consolodation but you would not need to think for more than a few seconds to realise how meaningless the concept of consolodation is.The battle now is for one of the top two places - a playoff place is aasured. Lambert has not given us such a poor run that would be needed if we were to miss out, since he took over.  I am almost certain we won''t hit that long term bad patch now. To put it in perspective we would have to play at relegation standard over the next ten games - not likely, so top two here we come.

[I am a Banana 0]

With teams trying heir hardest to not win (as seen today) maybe it will be lower than normal [;)] ill go for 80

[chicken 0]

With nana boy on this.

I think it has been a very tight league this year. Listening to the QPR game on 5live today and they were saying how inconsistant this league has been this year appart from QPR.

I would actually argue that they have been inconsistant but also had a lot of luck. On another day we would have hammered them! And apparently we weren''t the only team to be unlucky there.

Then they go on about Taaaraaaaaabt who I personaly think is overated - he is no Wes that is for sure.

But it is going to be close at the top and at the bottom. You look at Millwall who won today, they are distinctly mid-table right now but only 7points off the play-offs. Whatever odds they are offering on them making the play-offs must be worth a little gamble because if they put a run together they could do it.

However for most teams there are 9/10 games left, that''s 27/30 points left to play for. I don''t like to look at games and predict results and I think its all down to making sure we don''t loose now.

[Canary Wanderer 0]

I have just done the BBC Predictor and I think we will get 83 points, but infortunately Cardiff 84 & QPR 87 - So I don''t think we are there yet.For the record1  QPR         872  Cardiff      843  Norwich   834  Swansea   775  Burnley     746  Notts F     727  Reading     718  Leicester   709  Watford    6910 Leeds      6911 Hull         6912 Bristol C  69Unfortunately I think we will lose at Swansea, Ipswich & draw Hull & Notts Forest.Please Mr Lambert now go and prove me wrong and if the Boys play like they played at Leicester they will get automatice Promotion by a mile.OTBC

[Tim Allman 1]

This is the average top six points for each position for the last six seasons: -

 

	2004/5	2005/6	2006/7	2007/8	2008/9	2009/10	Average
1st	94	106	88	81	90	102	93.5
2nd	87	90	86	79	83	91	86.0
3rd	85	81	84	75	80	79	80.7
4th	76	80	76	74	77	76	76.5
5th	75	78	76	71	76	76	75.3
6th	73	75	75	70	74	70	72.8

 

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

[quote user="Tim Allman"]

This is the average top six points for each position for the last six seasons: -

 

	2004/5	2005/6	2006/7	2007/8	2008/9	2009/10	Average
1st	94	106	88	81	90	102	93.5
2nd	87	90	86	79	83	91	86.0
3rd	85	81	84	75	80	79	80.7
4th	76	80	76	74	77	76	76.5
5th	75	78	76	71	76	76	75.3
6th	73	75	75	70	74	70	72.8

 

[/quote]

 

Interesting statistics, Tim. Backing up the view from City1st and Ricardo about what kind of season this is. For QPR (assuming - which I don''t - that they don''t get docked points) to reach that first-place average of 93.5 they will need to win six, draw three and lose none. Very hard.

 

Swansea, to get to the second-place average of 86, would need to win seven and draw two and lose none. Not realistic. We would need seven wins, two draws and one defeat. Not realistic either.

 

The season it most looks like, from those figures, is 2008/09, where you have one team (in this case a non-deducted QPR) reasonably clear in first, a team finishing second in the low to mid 80s, and the teams from second to six separated by very few points. In that case only nine points. And with the team in sixth finishing with a higher points total than that six-season average. The 2004/05 and 2006/07 seasons are other possible guides.

 

[Bill 1,788]

It should be borne in mind that we have only lost ONE game in the last fifteen. That is one hell of a consistent run. Something that barely seems to be mentioned.This suggests to me that we will continue our 4 points from 2 games habit.

What gives me greater belief is the hard nosed determination that is coming out of the club. We are not ''giving it a go''. Do not be deceived. This is part of a well organised and well prepared regime with one aim in mind - and that is not to ''give it a go''.

I still hold, as I have done for some while now, that we will achieve 83 points. If anything it might be higher - that will depend on how others fare, how much they fall away. Money is tight and many clubs are running on a shoestring and if you hit them on a bad day for injuries and suspensions then who knows, it could be better than 83 points.

We have not recently had any of the ''horrific'' failures as with Burnley yesterday. We have been held or blocked but that was by teams who had already known how to hurt us. Preston, Doncaster, Palace, Cardiff, Barnsley and Leeds have all (over that 15 match run) took points off us in the first match with us (or gave us a tough game). So no real shock, just part of the four point average.

83 points allows for three defeats and a draw. I''m not too sure if there are three teams up coming who will beat us. Two wins plus four draws, most probable - but that would still give us the 83 points .... and up we go. The plays offs are not our target. they require three or four wins at the most. We will achieve those. It is the two automatic places we need to see as our target.That begins Monday night.

Defeat a Bristol team on a bit of a roll themselves and we might need to get out the old duster and start to give the open top bus a bit of shine !

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

[quote user="City1st"]It should be borne in mind that we have only lost ONE game in the last fifteen. That is one hell of a consistent run. Something that barely seems to be mentioned.This suggests to me that we will continue our 4 points from 2 games habit. What gives me greater belief is the hard nosed determination that is coming out of the club. We are not ''giving it a go''. Do not be deceived. This is part of a well organised and well prepared regime with one aim in mind - and that is not to ''give it a go''. I still hold, as I have done for some while now, that we will achieve 83 points. If anything it might be higher - that will depend on how others fare, how much they fall away. Money is tight and many clubs are running on a shoestring and if you hit them on a bad day for injuries and suspensions then who knows, it could be better than 83 points. We have not recently had any of the ''horrific'' failures as with Burnley yesterday. We have been held or blocked but that was by teams who had already known how to hurt us. Preston, Doncaster, Palace, Cardiff, Barnsley and Leeds have all (over that 15 match run) took points off us in the first match with us (or gave us a tough game). So no real shock, just part of the four point average. 83 points allows for three defeats and a draw. I''m not too sure if there are three teams up coming who will beat us. Two wins plus four draws, most probable - but that would still give us the 83 points .... and up we go. The plays offs are not our target. they require three or four wins at the most. We will achieve those. It is the two automatic places we need to see as our target.That begins Monday night. Defeat a Bristol team on a bit of a roll themselves and we might need to get out the old duster and start to give the open top bus a bit of shine ![/quote]

 

--

 

Your general thesis may well be right but the maths is not quite perfect. That would give us 82 points.

[Bill 1,788]

yep, silly me adding the points won then using the same total to take off points - stand corrected

be a bit of a shi**er if we missed out on an automatic place through me getting my sums wrong

ps I think it it warrants more than ''may well be'' !

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

[quote user="City1st"]yep, silly me adding the points won then using the same total to take off points - stand corrected be a bit of a shi**er if we missed out on an automatic place through me getting my sums wrong ps I think it it warrants more than ''may well be'' ![/quote]

 

Well let''s just hope Paul Lambert''s maths is better than yours...[:P][;)][:P]

 

[YellowLittle1 0]

Tricky one to call, I think two massive games our Forest and Swansea, if we can pick up four points from them two games, and maybe remain unbeaten that will probably be automatic for us.

Can''t see QPR getting docked points although we can all hope.

Cardiff have two tricky games left QPR and Burnley.

Forest have Swansea, Leeds, Norwich, Burnley, Leicester all to play.

It''s so difficult to judge, it can change in minutes the whole situation. OTBC

[Canary Wanderer 0]

And looking at what I wrote this morning.I think QPR - 87 no points docked           Cardiff - 84 points beginning with a win today           US - 83 points but it is in our hands the tricky run is9th April - Swansea (a) - Predict Lose12th April - Watford (a) - Predict Win but won''t be easy15th April - Forest (h) - Predict Draw but could win21st April - Scum (a) - Predict Lose but hopefully Draw.Again if we play like we did against Leicester all are winnableAfter that last 3 games we should win.

[ricardo 7,345]

[quote user="Canary Wanderer"]And looking at what I wrote this morning.I think QPR - 87 no points docked           Cardiff - 84 points beginning with a win today           US - 83 points but it is in our hands the tricky run is9th April - Swansea (a) - Predict Lose12th April - Watford (a) - Predict Win but won''t be easy15th April - Forest (h) - Predict Draw but could win21st April - Scum (a) - Predict Lose but hopefully Draw.Again if we play like we did against Leicester all are winnableAfter that last 3 games we should win.

[/quote]Well thats the first one down.I doubt very much that Cardiff will be troubling anyone who gets over 80 points.

[Rudolph Hucker 0]

I''ve gone with 80 points for some time now and that currently requires us to achieve 5 wins and 2 draws from 10. It is hard to imagine us losing 3 games and I would expect any defeat to be followed by the sort of positive backlash that has been a feature of Lambert''s tenure.

 

Our biggest enemy is drawing games we should win and in balance we have done this a little more than snatching wins from the jaws of a draw over the season. We have not been thrashed or humbled as, for example, Burnley were this weekend.

 

Donny and Preston are not latterly easy sides to beat so two draws were not as poor as they perhaps appeared. That said, I find myself doing what I did approaching those games approaching the Bristol game and that is getting excited about what a win would mean. Infact, the prize is greater against Bristol than for any other game this season as we know a win puts us into automatic and with our fate firmly in our own hands.

 

A win over Bristol would also see us requiring 4 wins and 2 draws from 9 games for 80 points. This is less than our season average. I would expect us to do better.

 

Of course, someone could go on an incredible run and storm into second: maybe ourselves, and there could be injuries and losses of form.

 

But, the biggest question for me has always been the congestion of games in April following Scunthorpe at home. Easter will see some unusual results I''m sure and squads will be fully tested. I expect us to have loan and injury players back for this period all being well.

 

The biggest advantage we have (and I''m sure other sides have great spirit) but I have to believe the spirit and togetherness of our side along with their belief and aspiration is something extraordinary and liable to push us all the way.