Mackail-Smith - what price?

[Salopian 1]

It seems that he is hot property - six other clubs, including Hull, have had bids rejected by Peterborough.

They want to talk, still, it seems, so the ball is in our court. Should we offer more, and could we?

Should we offer more? We could have the use of him on loan for the rest of this season, and for next. As he will have only one year left on his contract at the end of the season and his value will diminish, Posh will want to sell him.

He seems to fit the Lambert template - young(ish) at 27 and hungry. He has experience and is probably coming to his peak.

If we wait until the end of the season we shall probably be in an auction, with some of the big boys pricing him out of our budget.

How much could we offer? If our club were to gamble a little in the hope of getting "Hello" money on entering the Premiership, then £3.5m or even £4m would be about what we paid for Ashton, allowing for inflation. Even if we did not achieve promotion with him this year, we would have him to increase our chance next year.

If we take the plunge and buy him, would we be threatening the very future of our club? Possibly, but if we are serious about the Premiership we would have to spend on one or two expensive players in any case.

[AJ 1,218]

what people don''t think about is that the deal, supposedly 3 million or whatever, would not be 3 million straight up. But say, 750k with the possibility of a rising fee, say, if we got promoted to twice that or whatever.

He is the kind of player we would like to see here, but, at the same time, if we''re going to splash a load of money on one player, I''m sure I''m not the only one who thinks we can find better value elsewhere

[blahblahblah 2]

For that kind of money, he would have to be capable of making some kind of impression in the Premiership.  How many players manage to do this starting from the Championship these days ?  Charlie Adam has made a name for himself at Blackpool, but how many strikers ?  Does he have / can he attain the fitness levels required to run for the 10 - 12 kilometres over 90 minutes, Tuesday and Saturday / Sunday in one of the worlds'' fastest paced leagues ?I guess the question is, at 27 years old, is CMS in the same league as a 21 year old Dean Ashton, or even as good as Robert Earnshaw ?   Ashton made the step up comfortably, Earnshaw seems to have found his level in the Championship.  The problem with the transfer is highly likely to be the "risk-sharing" element of promotion.  Bazza will want more money now than we can afford to / consider reasonable to give probably.

[TheGoogler 324]

I think at this time of the year, we''d be paying a premium to get him. No team, especially one as upwardly mobile as Peterborough, will allow their top scorer to leave cheaply.

[ricardo 7,381]

[quote user="blahblahblah"]For that kind of money, he would have to be capable of making some kind of impression in the Premiership.  How many players manage to do this starting from the Championship these days ?  Charlie Adam has made a name for himself at Blackpool, but how many strikers ?  Does he have / can he attain the fitness levels required to run for the 10 - 12 kilometres over 90 minutes, Tuesday and Saturday / Sunday in one of the worlds'' fastest paced leagues ?I guess the question is, at 27 years old, is CMS in the same league as a 21 year old Dean Ashton, or even as good as Robert Earnshaw ?   Ashton made the step up comfortably, Earnshaw seems to have found his level in the Championship.  The problem with the transfer is highly likely to be the "risk-sharing" element of promotion.  Bazza will want more money now than we can afford to / consider reasonable to give probably.[/quote]I don''t think he is in the Earnshaw / Ashton class. If he was it would have shown long before reaching the age of 27.£1.5 -2  million tops for me with perhaps an add on if we get promoted so a max of £2.5million.From the comments coming from PBoro it seems they want to do business and are just trying to up the price. If they really wanted to keep him you would not be hearing that kind of talk.I think we should back off and leave them to think about it.

[Road to Nowhere 0]

I''m in two minds about this.

Firstly - I actually think he would be a very good signing for us not just be cause he appears to be a natural goalscorer but also (in my little knowledge of Posh games) is a real workhorse and could take some pressure off GH. Although we are in a strong position in the league I still feel we need an "x factor" to help us get over the line and secure an unlikely return to the Premier. We might not be in this good a situation again so surely its worth a punt.

However, if the reported £3million is right then that is a helluva lot for a striker with only one season at Championship level (although admittedly he still hit double figures in a struggling team). Even someone like Shane Long or Danny Graham for me would be difficult to justify this price tag. Added to this, depending how the deal is structured, the fact now Posh are asking for more means I''m even more certain it would be a huge gamble for a club already in the s**t financially.

Ambition vs. prudence all over again but what risk?

[The Butler 0]

We will know when the deal is done

A yellow Reliant Robin wiith Fry''s idependent trading on it will be parked outside Carrow road.

Stitch up between Barry and brother Stephen [;)]

[Mahogany 0]

Going over 3m seems a bit crazy to me. Sure he''s had a good season, but he didn''t set the championship on fire last year, sure that was with a poor team but for 3m I''d want a sure-thing (or as close to a sure thing as is possible).

Might we not do better to go back to Brighton to try again for Bennett. They''re all but up now so might be willing to let him go.

[Ivana_rubyatitz 6]

I see quite a bit of Peterborough and know locals who follow them and have solid opinions on the guy. My view is that whilst CMS is good, hard working and capable at playing above League 1 he is not gonna cut the mustard in the Prem. He simply does not represent good business at £3M so any further upping of a bid just seems like panic buying to me. Barry Fry is a wide boy and not someone you want to get into bidding with if you can avoid it.

We haven''t exactly been struggling to score recently and are likely to have Chris Martin and Wheeliebin back soon to support Holt, plus Jackson. I don''t think we need CMS enough to spend that kind of money. If we have the funds available then spend them elsewhere on someone proven at this level and the players already mentioned fit the bill.

[Joanna Grey 0]

[quote user="Salopian"]It seems that he is hot property - six other clubs, including Hull, have had bids rejected by Peterborough.[/quote]

Hull''s bid was during the January transfer window when they wanted him and Aaron Mclean but only got one of them. Their offer for CMS was reportedly worth £1.5m. Other interested parties -

Jan 2011: Blackpool Ian Holloway admits the Seasiders are interested in the players but a deal is a long way off.  "We were only offered £3.5million for Charlie Adam. Peterborough want that for two lads who were in a team that got relegated from the Championship," said Holloway to the Blackpool Gazette.

Jan 2011: Southampton (contact but no firm bid).

Sep 2010: Derby.

Feb 2010: Reports that Leicester, Reading and Watford were interested in him, Barry Fry said: "The chairman believes in the great escape. He believes we have a genuine chance to achieve the impossible and wants to try to keep the players at the football club. We have therefore turned down three offers to take Craig on loan."

 

[Mahogany 0]

Also I know he''s been mentioned before but what about Will Hoskins from Bristol Rovers? I can''t say I''ve seen much of him but looking at his stats he looks like he might be a better prospect than Mackail-Smith: 2nd top scorer in league 1, averages a goal every other game, playing for the worst team in the league, 3 years younger, and is also captain of his club, which Lambert seems to like in his signings.

They''d obviously be reluctant to let him go what with their struggle against relegation but maybe if we offered Korey and Simeon on loan....

[Lynn Canary 0]

I doubt it would be £3 million deal up front. It would probably have a loan fee and then add ons depending if we go up or decide to sign him permanently. And if Holt picks up and injury, then we could be in serious trouble. He may do really well in the Championship. Its all about what team you are in. When Chris Martin was on loan at Luton in League 2 he scored 13 goals, last season in League 1 he scored over 20. And if he does make the step up, £3 million could be a bargain if it means we get promotion. Their going to try to get as much as they can, but i don''t think they can expect to get many offers in the region of £3 million, and that much money could help them next season depending whether they get promotion or not.

[NWC 239]

A major factor to consider would also be the players wages and contracts.

CMS (as he is easierly called) has only played in the lower leagues and would not command massive wages. However a player like Shane Long who has played premier league football will obviously be on a lot more, and probably want a shorter contract.

There''s good value in paying £3m for a player who only commands half a million in wages who we could tie up for 3/4 years, compared to paying £2m for another who commands the same again in wages who will be contract negotiating every season.

[BroadstairsR 0]

£3m for him. Absurd price. I do not actually believe that our bid was anywhere near in the region of this. Add-ons and sell-ons and a concession on Lewis''s eventual sale might well have been involved, but still nowhere near this nonsensical rumour.

 

Barry Fry makes a habit of over-valuing his sought after players and in his market stall way seems to invent a demand by suggesting that half of the Football League is desperate for them. McNally won''t fall for this.

 

Everything about McNally''s (and Lambert''s) dealings thus far would refute this rumour.

 

I would begin to think about that kind of fee fora Ched, a Long or a Graham. Not this lower league trier, whose own fans rate him as being miles away from Prem. class. 

[L4cole 0]

I think if the rejected 3million we she leave it. Stick with our squad and wait until the summer. I think for that value we can get someone with a little bit more proven ability in a higher league. I think it could be a rush buy!!If we get to the premiership he''s very much unproven quality.

[O.T.B.C 0]

Lets go for it, offer the money close to what they want, offer them money up front and then if promoted, they get more, some more incentives and a sell on. Like I said, if he scores the goals that gets us promoted, then it will be worth it. From what I gather, he is not primadonna, he works hard, is a good age, popular with players and fans and has a good eye for the goal. Do it Norwich.

[CRAZY LEGS 0]

he won''t be coming , loan window shuts tommorow and we aint really that desperate, go with what we have.

[O.T.B.C 0]

It''s next Thursday.

[CanaryOne 0]

Go with what we have , yes we may get away with it as long as Holt stays injury free , were that not the case it would be hard seeing City going up with Jackson and Wilbraham up front. Monday showed again how much we do need another goalscorer in the side , dominated the entire game and got out of jail again with a last minute strike from a midfielder, so so close to being another 2 points chucked away.

[technika 0]

i have my doubts it is actually 3 mill. although they know city are desperate for a stiker i dont think mcnally/lambert are that stupid/desperate. tbh they could ask for what they like around this time of the season especially as every man and his dog knows we are in the hunt for a striker.  If we had 3 mill to spend i think we could have had ched evans or a bunch of other championship strikers in the january window and even then some people would question if it was too much.

id have money on it not even being 2 million.

[Yobocop 1,097]

Knowing Barry Fry? The figure is likely to be around the 4 mil mark...4 mil of which a) we don''t have and b) too much too gamble on a 3rd division striker...

[Mr.Carrow 376]

I really do despair reading these boards sometimes. What is so difficult to understand about a £3m bid but at least half of it only being payable if we secured a promotion worth £60m??

The board are not risking the future of the club, they are being clever and pro-active and trying to lure one of the biggest chancers in the game into a gamble in which he is guaranteed a reasonable fee for his best player if we don`t go up- with the chance of a really big one if we do. It`s frikkin obvious.

[Davo 0]

£3 million is a helluva lot of money for a player who is unproven for a club in our situation. Sure it''d be worth it financially if we go up, however what about if we don''t go up? Suddenly we''ve blown £3mill on a player who mihgt not actually be good enough. Watford won''t sell him now but with only one more season left on his current contract after this one and deep financial troubles they could find the offer tempting int he summer.

I know which of the two I would prefer.

 

Davo

[Rob Sims 0]

Where are Watford involved!  Unless you''re split in two minds over Graham.

[L4cole 0]

[quote user="Davo"]

£3 million is a helluva lot of money for a player who is unproven for a club in our situation. Sure it''d be worth it financially if we go up, however what about if we don''t go up? Suddenly we''ve blown £3mill on a player who mihgt not actually be good enough. Watford won''t sell him now but with only one more season left on his current contract after this one and deep financial troubles they could find the offer tempting int he summer.

I know which of the two I would prefer.

 

Davo

[/quote]

I agree, we don''t know if he can cut it at this lever, ya sure plays like Holt and Crofts fox have, but Martin and Jackson have found it a struggle. People who scored hateful in that league. We got where we are with what we have. Wit until the summer and you can pick up a Shane Long or Danny Graham for not much more, and more likely to make the impact needed in the premier league.

[Mr.Carrow 376]

Davo- please read my earlier post and have a little think about it.

[L4cole 0]

[quote user="Mr.Carrow"]I really do despair reading these boards sometimes. What is so difficult to understand about a £3m bid but at least half of it only being payable if we secured a promotion worth £60m??

The board are not risking the future of the club, they are being clever and pro-active and trying to lure one of the biggest chancers in the game into a gamble in which he is guaranteed a reasonable fee for his best player if we don`t go up- with the chance of a really big one if we do. It`s frikkin obvious.[/quote]I see the point, If it was say 1mill up front. the rest going on goals and if we are promoted. It covers our back. But I don''t see peterbrough going for that.I think they would want it up front. Maybe why our bid was rejected. but quoting Darren Ferguson

"They (Norwich) need to make an improved bid for Mackail-Smith as their offer was nowhere near good enough.

"They

want to get into the Premier League which is worth an awful lot of

money, and if they want to be serious about it they need to make us a

decent offer.

Seems like they will hold as to ransom!!

[GMF 736]

To put this in context, his overall strike rate seems good, however, it actually breaks down as follows:-

 

20 goals in 51 games in two season at League Two.

 

43 goals in 78 games in a season and a bit in League One.

 

10 goals in 43 games from a single season in the Championship.

 

If that makes him worth £3M plus, then the footballing world has gone mad!

[Mr.Carrow 376]

L4cole- agreed. We are slightly hamstrung in that P`boro know we have Foulgers £2m and know that promotion is worth ridiculous money. But as i say, Fry is a notorious chancer so we could raise the amount payable on promotion (when, let`s face it, we`d be loaded) without the risk of having to pay it if we fail.....

Imagine we win on saturday and other results go for us. Fry may just get a little twitchy.....

[BroadstairsR 0]

Peterborogh are looking good for promotion themselves. Selling this player would very much jeopodise their current position and thus cost them money. It would also be a kick in the teeth to their fans. 

 

It seems they are making the right noises by doing everything they can to hang onto the player for the rest of this season. They probably know £3m is more than fair, if not slightly ridiculous, but have to weigh up the damage and cost to themselves.

 

Fry has admitted that they would not hold him back next season.

 

Peterborough''s stance is correct and totally in the interests of  the Club.