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Somerset Canary

Final Points Total

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Thought I would have a go at predicting the top 6 of the table by looking at each teams remaining fixtures. Obviously they aren''t going to all be right but I''ll try and get as close as possible.

NORWICH:

Doncaster (h) - win - 3pts

Barnsley (a) - win - 3pts

Preston (h) - win - 3pts

Leicester (a) - lose - 0pts

Bristol City (h) - win - 3pts

Hull (a) - draw - 1pt

Scunthorpe (h) - win - 3pts

Swansea (a) - draw - 1pt

Watford (a) - draw - 1pt

N Forest (h) - draw - 1pt

Ipswich (a) - draw - 1pt

Derby (h) - win - 3pts

Portsmouth (a) - draw - 1pt

Coventry (h) - win - 3pts

Total from remaining games - 27pts

QPR:

Ipswich (h) - win - 3pts

Middlesbrough (a) - draw - 1pt

Leicester (h) - draw - 1pt

Millwall (a) - draw - 1pt

Crystal Palace (h) - win - 3pts

Doncaster (a) - win - 3pts

Sheffield Utd (h) - win - 3pts

Scunthorpe (a) - win - 3pts

Barnsley (a) - draw - 1pt

Derby (h) - win - 3pts

Cardiff (a) - draw - 1pt

Hull (h) - draw - 1pt

Watford (a) - win - 3pts

Leeds (h) - draw - 1pt

Total from remaining games - 28pts

CARDIFF:

Leicester (h) - draw - 1pt

Hull (a) - lose - 0pts

Ipswich (h) - draw - 1pt

Crystal Palace (a) - draw - 1pt

Barnsley (h) - win - 3pts

Millwall (a) - draw - 1pt

Derby (h) - win - 3pts

Doncaster (a) - draw - 1pt

Sheffield Utd (a) - win - 3pts

Portsmouth (h) - win - 3pts

QPR (h) - draw - 1pt

Preston (a) - win - 3pts

Middlesbrough (h) - win - 3pts

Burnley (a) - draw - 1pt

Total from remaining games - 25pts

SWANSEA:

Coventry (a) - draw - 1pt

Leeds (h) - draw - 1pt

Scunthorpe (a) - win - 3pts

Watford (h) - win - 3pts

Derby (a) - win - 3pts

N Forest (h) - draw - 1pt

Preston (a) - win - 3pts

Norwich (h) - draw - 1pt

Hull (h) - draw - 1pt

Burnley (a) - draw - 1pt

Portsmouth (a) - draw - 1pt

Ipswich (h) - draw - 1pt

Millwall (a) - draw - 1pt

Sheffield Utd (h) - win - 3pts

Total from remaining games - 24pts

N FOREST:

Preston (h) - win - 3pts

Millwall (a) - draw - 1pt

Middlesbrough (a) - draw - 1pt

Hull (h) - win - 3pts

Sheffield Utd (a) - win - 3pts

Doncaster (h) - win - 3pts

Swansea (a) - draw - 1pt

Leeds (a) - draw - 1pt

Reading (h) - win - 3pts

Burnley (h) - draw - 1pt

Norwich (a) - draw - 1pt

Leicester (h) - draw - 1pt

Bristol City (a) - win - 3pts

Scunthorpe (h) - win - 3pts

Crystal Palace (a) - draw - 1pt

Total from remaining games - 29pts

LEEDS:

Barnsley (h) - win - 3pts

Swansea (a) - draw - 1pt

Doncaster (h) - win - 3pts

Preston (a) - win - 3pts

Ipswich (h) - draw - 1pt

Sheffield Utd (a) - win - 3pts

N Forest (h) - draw - 1pt

Millwall (a) - draw - 1pt

Derby (a) - win - 3pts

Watford (h) - win - 3pts

Reading (h) - draw - 1pt

Crystal Palace (a) - draw - 1pt

Burnley (h) - draw - 1pt

QPR (a) - draw - 1pt

Total from remaing games - 26pts

LEICESTER:

Cardiff (a) - draw - 1pt

Coventry (h) - win - 3pts

QPR (a) - draw - 1pt

Norwich (h) - win - 3pts

Scunthorpe (a) - win - 3pts

Portsmouth (h) - win - 3pts

Middlesbrough (a) - draw - 1pt

Burnley (h) - draw - 1pt

Crystal Palace (h) - win - 3pts

Reading (a) - draw - 1pt

N Forest (a) - draw - 1pt

Watford (h) - win - 3pts

Doncaster (a) - win - 3pts

Ipswich (h) - draw - 1pt

Total from remaining games - 28pts

BURNLEY:

Preston (a) - win - 3pts

Crystal Palace (h) - win - 3pts

Hull (a) - lose - 0pts

Millwall (h) - draw - 1pt

Coventry (h) - win - 3pts

Bristol City (a) - draw - 1pt

Ipswich (h) - draw - 1pt

Leicester (a) - draw - 1pt

Swansea (h) - draw - 1pt

Middlesbrough (h) - win - 3pts

Derby (a) - win - 3pts

Portsmouth (h) - win - 3pts

Leeds (a) - draw - 1pt

Cardiff (h) - draw - 1pt

Total from remaining games - 25pts

Here''s the final table then...

1. Qpr 89 pts

2.Forest 85 pts

---------------------------

3. Norwich 82 pts

4.Swansea 80 pts

5. Cardiff 80 pts

6. Leeds 79 pts

---------------------------

7.Leicester 79 pts

8.Burnley 72 pts

* used the current goal difference to split sides on the same points.

Wow, that took a long time!

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So, on those results all City need to do to finish second is beat Forest at CR.I can see no reason why they won''t.

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It''s impossible to predict who finishes where exactly. It only takes one upset result and that changes everything. All we know is, it''s going to very exciting and close

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It seems strange to me that out of all those remaining games only City and Burnley are going to lose one.I would say the chances of that happening are nil.

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[quote user="ricardo"]So, on those results all City need to do to finish second is beat Forest at CR.I can see no reason why they won''t.[/quote]

No Ricardo because we would both have the same points but we would be third on goal difference

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I am fully aware that a lot of those will be incorrect. I predicted them by what is most likely to happen. I agree with most people, in that it is to close to call and that the league might not finish like that but i was just having a bit of fun.

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[quote user="colneycanary"][quote user="ricardo"]So, on those results all City need to do to finish second is beat Forest at CR.I can see no reason why they won''t.[/quote]

No Ricardo because we would both have the same points but we would be third on goal difference[/quote]So you have even worked out the goal differences?With 14 games left it only takes one good victory or one good defeat to swing those differences right round .The other thing I notice is that when any of the top teams play each other it is without exception forecast as a draw. That just aint going to happen.Its far to early to say anything other than its likely to go to the last game with probably 4 or 5 teams in with a shout on the last day.

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You''re saying that we''re only gonna lose once between now and the end of the season?You''re saying Leeds won''t lose between now and the end of the season?You''re saying Cardiff are only gonna lose once between now and the end of the season?You''re saying Leicester won''t lose between now and the end of the season?You''re saying Forest won''t lose between now and the end of the season?You''re saying QPR won''t lose between now and the end of the season?You''re saying Swansea won''t lose between now and the end of the season?You''re saying Burnley will only lose once between now and the end of the season?That is just really unrealistic. The run-in (especially the Championship) is by far the hardest part of the season. The pressure is on every game, squads are thin on the ground, lower teams are fighting for their lives etc. I can guarantee all those teams will lose at least once, probably twice.

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In my blog I said we''d finish with 83 points...I maintain that wouldn''t be enough for automatic promotion.

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I think the OP is being highly optimistic with all the leading teams points totals, and I think Leicester would count themselves very unlucky if they did actually get 79 points and still failed to make the play-offs. I have just checked all the past year''s final tables (I know, but I can''t get to sleep and there''s nothing on the telly) and in this division the only team ever to get as many as 75 and not get into the top six, was Burnley in 2002 which was the year we beat them to sixth place on goal difference. Last season 70 was eough for a play-off place, and I don''t see this season being much different.

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I think 83 may well be enough for automatic. At this stage last year the top six were not so close and the points for the top two were higher.

I predict we will hit 80 plus points.

I can understand where the original poster is coming from. Judging each game of the basis of

higher v lower home win

higher v higher home win/draw

which seems reasonable if you are look at it as what is probable. However the game does not go that way as (below) prove

Forest losing at Scunthorpe

QPR drawing at Preston

What I still say is what I said before Xmas. It will go to the last weekend. Whoever is there on the day wins it - ruddy obvious I know, but let me explain. There will be constant chopping and changing and it will not be so clear cut that the top two are up, and two or three of the play off places are decided a week or two before hand.

I would also add that it is going to take something to have another two seasons like this last two - and we still have nearly a third of this one to go.

Plenty more fun to come yet !

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So, Leicester will not make the top six ?  I''m pretty sure they will,  and could well make top 2 bearing in mind their form and squad. QPR will very likely lose to Leeds and Leicester amongst others due to their continuing goals drought, and will drop out of the top two IMO, and the team to drop out of the top six could well be Cardiff.   Time will tell......  

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