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Shack Attack

The £2million, not scoring enough goals and loan strikers

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I posted the following in a different thread this morning and have since wondered, rather arrogantly maybe, whether it may deserve a thread of it''s own. The point I think that needs discussing is where we think our current squad of players will leave us this season and what, if anything, do we need to improve our chances and meet our targets (whatever they may be). I mention the £2million in the title purely for the reason that if the spending of this is not guaranteed (I say guaranteed but obviously this is impossible) to secure promotion would it not be reckless to spunk this all on short term loans in the hope that we make the top two? My previous post was as follows.

 

As so many people tend to judge forwards on goals scored I thought I would do a little research into the overall goal scoring record of our team to see if we can gauge how our season may pan out from here. After all the main question we have been asking recently is ''Do we need another striker?''. [url=http://services.pinkun.com/FORUMS/PINKUN/CS/forums/3/2430487/ShowPost.aspx#2430487]Whether Paul Lambert knows what he is doing when it comes to the purchase of strikers[/url] is a moot point if we already have the firepower within our ranks to get us over the line.

 

The goalscoring records of the top ten teams at present are as follows. QPR - 56, Swansea - 48, Cardiff - 55, Forest - 45, Norwich - 54, Leeds - 57, Leicester - 51, Burnley - 49, Hull - 39 and Reading 51. The average number of goals scored by the top ten is 50.5 so we are above average scorers. So a big well done to our attacking players? Watford are the top scorers in the division with 59 goals but they are thirteenth so make of that what you will.

 

Now take our goals per game average at the moment (1.59) and apply this to the twelve games that are left this season and we will end up with 73 goals. So how does that compare with the goalscoring records of the top six (assuming this is our target) over the past five seasons in The Championship? Average number of goals scored by the top six are below with notes on particularly high scorers in brackets with their goals scored and final position.

 

2005/06 - 73 (Reading 99 1st)

2006/07 - 70 (WBA 81 4th)

2007/08 - 66 (WBA 88 1st)

2008/09 - 68 (Wolves 80 1st)

2009/10 - 75 (Newcastle 90 1st, WBA 89 2nd)

 

So if we keep up our goals to games ratio for the rest of the season the number of goals scored will be equal to or more than the average goals scored by the top six in four of the past five years. In fact the only year that it would be less was last season where the figures appear to have been distorted by two teams scoring around ninety goals. It seems unlikely that anyone will get close to ninety goals this season.

 

So in terms of goals scored we are looking good for a top six finish. Could we go further and almost guarantee a top two finish if we scored more goals. The stats above show that teams who score eighty plus goals are highly likely to finish top but there are no guarantees this would happen for us. Should we gamble on getting a striker in now with twelve games to go and hope he gels with his team mates from the off? Or should we stick with the players who have got us this far (and who look set to cement a place in the play offs) and keep the faith in the desire and the winning mentality that Paul Lambert has given them?

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[quote user="Snakepit Lass"]sorry can''t be bothered to read all that so what he said :)[/quote]

The thing I find hard to get my head round is this, Why announce the £2mil extra, and not do anything with it?, Or am I being stupid and they are lining up a couple of signings, I can understand the reason to keep things quiet and play cards close to the chest and all that but it would be nice for a little hint from the office up stairs       

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[quote user="pete_norw"]

[quote user="Snakepit Lass"]sorry can''t be bothered to read all that so what he said :)[/quote]

The thing I find hard to get my head round is this, Why announce the £2mil extra, and not do anything with it?, Or am I being stupid and they are lining up a couple of signings, I can understand the reason to keep things quiet and play cards close to the chest and all that but it would be nice for a little hint from the office up stairs       

[/quote]

My thoughts exactly, Pete. I thought football clubs preferred to keep schtum about their transfer funds, for fear of being quoted grossly inflated prices when making enquiries to other clubs about buying their players.

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Nutty will tell you that it''s goal difference that matters, and looking at the table it''s hard to argue with him.  I''d suggest that the fewer goals you concede, the more points you will get for your goals scored.  It seems like an obvious thing to say, but I think championship winning teams are built from the back.  As for spending the 2 million on short term loans to get you that top spot, no single striker signing is guaranteed goals in this division.  Bellamy has 8 league goals last time I checked a couple of weeks back, Earnshaw has also has 8 for the season.The goals have to come from all around the team.  Luckily for us, they are.  It''s clean sheets that will get us over the line though.

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I thinking we''re scoring enough goals. (Just enough). However, our inability to keep cleansheets and prevent goals is the major problem. Stat''sScoring. 4th Scoring at Home.    Behind Leeds, Leicester, Watford, and Level with Cardiff and Forest.5th Scoring Away.        Behind Watford, Leeds, Cardiff, Hull, and Level with Reading and Doncaster. Top Failed To Score.    Joint with Leeds with fewest games failed to score in. Defensively.16th Defensively at Home.  Note Leeds joint worst with Preston. 3rd Defensively Away.11th Cleansheet.                 Note QPR 19 and Swansea 17.These are only statistics but we can draw some conclusions. We have one of best Away records (3rd Defensively). QPR and Swansea top 2 (Top2 in terms of cleansheets). While both Norwich and Leeds are scoring plenty of goals, it''s their inability to keep clean-sheets which is requiring us to score more win to games. Obviously, both teams are managing their fair few (5th and 6th in league). Having to score 2 goals to win a game will eventually cost you.

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edit, missed key part.11th Cleansheets. We''ve kept 9.   QPR kept 19 and Swansea 17.    (Apologises)

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All valid points.  I believe one of the problems we have had is the number of changes in personel in defence, however with Ruddy''s performances of late and a settled back four we could well improve on the number of clean sheets.  The style of our play which is very attacking does tend to leave us more open at the back. Biggest point though, what if we lose Holt?

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[quote user="Snakepit Lass"]sorry can''t be bothered to read all that so what he said :)[/quote]

That''s a tad rude, we have to read through all your chat room drivel.

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Op your theory is a myth. It is goals conceded that will keep us out of the top 2 not goals scored. Take yourself down to Colney and listen to the coaches - Footbal is a team game and it does not matter who scores. If we signed an out and out striker he would be hounded out of FCR as an out and out striker does not go back and defend.

Would you really now risk all by changing the style we play ? And as far as the money goes I would have thought announcing it meant it was more likely that we would not be spending as prices go up when clubs know you have money.

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[quote user="Planet X"][quote user="Snakepit Lass"]sorry can''t be bothered to read all that so what he said :)[/quote]


That''s a tad rude, we have to read through all your chat room drivel.
[/quote]

that was a bit below the belt. no needs for that, On the other hand

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I''m happy with the amount of goals we''re scoring and they are coming from all areas which is a bonus. I do feel however another experienced striker on loan would be a massive bonus for the squad. We have quality already so if u can add this to the team think of the strength in depth coming off the bench could be the difference in some games. As for the £2million budget for players does seem weird to announce it publicly because other clubs now know what budget we have and can demand more!

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[quote user="Lambert is King"]

Op your theory is a myth. It is goals conceded that will keep us out of the top 2 not goals scored. Take yourself down to Colney and listen to the coaches - Footbal is a team game and it does not matter who scores. If we signed an out and out striker he would be hounded out of FCR as an out and out striker does not go back and defend.

[/quote]

 

Erm.......I think that was exactly the point I was trying to make [:D]. We seem to be scoring enough goals (throughout the team) to get in the top six but there is circumstantial evidence that teams who finish in the top two tend to score more than we are currently. I was merely trying to take a different slant on the idea that we absolutely must bring in a proven striker to guarantee promotion. I would agree with you (and the stats that I provided would appear to back this up) that goals conceded may well be our undoing but almost all of the threads on here seem to want us to sign a striker.

 

My view is that the squad currently at our disposal are more than capable of keeping us in the mix for a top two place and will almost certainly finish in the top six. There is no Newcastle or West Brom who are going to score ninety goals this season so it may be that tightening things up at the back a little would be more beneficial than bringing in a loanee striker on high wages.

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So extrapolating you''re saying Shack, is that we should never have got rid of the Doc. Couldn''t agree more! [:D]

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[quote user="Snakepit Lass"]That''s a tad rude, we have to read through all your chat room drivel.

O yes and here you are again! nobody makes you read them[/quote]

Yes but we have to scan through your dross just to get to the bits worth reading.

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[quote user="Shack Attack"][quote user="Lambert is King"]

Op your theory is a myth. It is goals conceded that will keep us out of the top 2 not goals scored. Take yourself down to Colney and listen to the coaches - Footbal is a team game and it does not matter who scores. If we signed an out and out striker he would be hounded out of FCR as an out and out striker does not go back and defend.

[/quote]

 

Erm.......I think that was exactly the point I was trying to make [:D]. We seem to be scoring enough goals (throughout the team) to get in the top six but there is circumstantial evidence that teams who finish in the top two tend to score more than we are currently. I was merely trying to take a different slant on the idea that we absolutely must bring in a proven striker to guarantee promotion. I would agree with you (and the stats that I provided would appear to back this up) that goals conceded may well be our undoing but almost all of the threads on here seem to want us to sign a striker.

 

My view is that the squad currently at our disposal are more than capable of keeping us in the mix for a top two place and will almost certainly finish in the top six. There is no Newcastle or West Brom who are going to score ninety goals this season so it may be that tightening things up at the back a little would be more beneficial than bringing in a loanee striker on high wages.

[/quote]

Good news. We are where we are based on our team and work ethic, we have no world beaters on an individual basis in our team ( with respect to those that have got us to where we are). Signing Drogba tomorrow would not garuntee extra goals but it would ensure a change of system

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[quote user="Snakepit Lass"]yes yes ok whatever i can see that me and you aren''t seeing eye to eye i think its best if we stay out of each others way[/quote]I,d love that completely but I keep having to scan the dross you post.Do you ever do any housework or are you still with your parent/s ?

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I think that there are grounds for hope,even if we don''t improve our goals per game. This could result if we conceded fewer goals.

Currently we have conceded, I think, 42 in 34 games, or approximately 1.2 goals per game. We now have an improved defence - Ruddy imroved, the two CBs doing well and Edwards waiting, Tierney available if Drury is unfit, Martin generally very good.

I think that we could potentially have more clean sheets and, with our likliehood to score, an ability to turn draws into wins.

The warning, however, is that we play 4 or 5 in the midfield, and last Saturday all of them could be seen in advanced positions and taking shots at goal. It did not matter unduly, as we were playing Barnsley, but when we play the better sides we shall need more discipline and concentration if we wish to keep clean sheets.

I would have preferred an efficient goal converter on loan, but I was doubtful that PL would find anyone of quality who would be released by their club. The extra player would have covered for injury and also permitted variation in tactics and team formation.

We are in the mix, and very likely in the play-offs at least. If we fail to get pomotion the £2m, or more, will be available in the summer to sign Bosman''s and others of quality because of our enhanced reputation and potential.

PL bangs on about how far we have come, and he''s right. "Little old Norwich" is again a force to be reckoned with, and transfer targets know this as well.

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[quote user="Snakepit Lass"]for your info i moved out 2 years ago... are you always this rude?[/quote]

No hardly ever, just can''t seem to control myself with you though.

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Are we actually sure the full 2 million is available? Although it was announced we had recieved this funding after the closing of the transfer window, I''m sure I read that this money was available to Lambert during the window..it could be possible that we no longer have the full 2 million after the signings of Barnett, Wilbraham and Tierney and are left with around 1 million which was roughly what we bid for Bennett. Can someone clarify this for me please.

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[quote user="Snakepit Lass"]sad really what have i ever done to you, you don''t even know me[/quote]Any chance you two could get a room and leave the rest of us to our messageboard?

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I for one am on Snakepit Lass''s side as she has only just left home and is probably in her 20''s and there is the off chance that she may be totty.

I am not usually so shallow

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Snakepit lass your reply was rude, if you haven''t got anything good to say, why say anything at all?

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[quote user="WEEN_NASTY"]I for one am on Snakepit Lass''s side as she has only just left home and is probably in her 20''s and there is the off chance that she may be totty. I am not usually so shallow[/quote]

Great thought.  Though not necessarily the case - she could be in her 50s.  However we are here to discuss Norwich City FC''s attributes, not Snakepit Lass''

Going back to the original point - dont forget 2m is not just for transfer fees.  The majority gets swallowed in wages, agents costs, scouting trips, and other associated activities.  So whilst 2m sounds a lot its got to go a long way. 

Do we need another striker?  No - and to be honest Lamberts forward signings arent great anyway.  Even the Holy Trinity of last season were a Gunn Signing (Holt) a Roeder signing (Hoolahan) and a Youth player (C Martin).  Oli Johnson, Simeon Jackson and Anthony MacNamee havent exactly set the Championship on fire to date.  Where we have got quality is in midfield where we do score a lot.  As for the goals against - yes we could tighten up and thats ultimately where the difference will be between top 2 and top 6.  Goalscoring isnt a problem for us - scoring 2 a game potentially is.  Looking at some of the most successful sides, fans didnt chant 1-0 to the Arsenal for no reason......

 

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